[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[tawe trader 10]

Lars,

 

Thank-you for posting, I really like your idea of a S&R grid and combining it with VSA for tighter entries. I'm sure it will give some new readers and traders something to think about.

 

i love VSA ... when i first found it i wasn't ready for it... i was skeptical... now its all about tracking sentiment and less about technicals..

 

Looks like you have still been hanging around this thread after our little disagreement back in Sept. I'm glad you have been able to see how useful VSA can be, if only like you said, as a way of tracking sentiment and what (usually) moves the mkts ....... overall it's SENTIMENT, not fundamentals, governments or bailouts.

 

Tawe

[tawe trader 10]

Realtime trade:- Tues 12.45pm (UK time)

 

The ES has recently broken yesterdays low and we have pretty high pre-mkt volume (+6000 contracts) coming in on a wide spread downbar two hrs before the US mkts open.

 

Two bars later we have a down close with volume less than the previous two bars, indicating possible less selling pressure / no supply.

 

The next bar needs to close up to confirm the no supply bar.

 

I post an update shortly.

 

Tawe

[tawe trader 10]

Well it's been over 1 1/2 hrs since the ES realtime post and that was a bit of a disappointment. I would have expected the mkt to at least rally up to the upper down-sloping supply line. I have seen larger up moves on less pre-mkt volume in the past but then the higher timeframes are all in a downtrend.

 

The no supply bar was confirmed, so there was a potential long entry around the 904 area and a possible +3 pts for the quick and nimble.

 

Tawe

[larsdelgars 10]

well DA BOYS musta shown up fa sho .... what a surprise... price sought out volume just below another monthly line level.... seems orders are couriered to and fro.... understanding tests thanks to VSA and this thread kept me out of the first entry and got me in at 820.50 a few minutes after noon (central time Chicago here). BUT WHAT AN AMATEUR... i sold out after 30 handles and missed the whole damn move. ARGH UM ARGH ARRRRGH... i'll get it right sometime... doing my analysis right now and trying to focus on tests.....

 

hope everyone caught that move...

[Eiger 10]

Here is an interesting chart. It is the 60-min ES through today. Note we have had a Selling Climax, Automatic Rally, Secondary Tests, and now a Spring. The Wyckoff Principles have thus far proven themselves. This is pretty textbook for Wyckoff and fairly bullish. Note, however, that we have not had a significant Sign of Strength at this point (i.e., we have broken Minor Creek, but not Major Creek), and this is important. Also note that there was fairly heavy volume to the upside today; this calls for a Test before rallying higher. Nevertheless, this looks bullish to me. Others, of course, saw triangles & hinges, or whatever, and call for further downside. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. The best trade will be made on a Back Up to the Edge of the Creek (BUEC), should that occur.

 

Please note that this is only the 60-minute chart. It is not the start of a bull market by any means. If it pans out, though, it could be a half-way decent rally in a bear market. Let's see.

 

Eiger

[winnie 10]

Dear Eiger,

 

What is mean by Creek ? Is it a trendline ?

 

Thanks

Winnie

[larsdelgars 10]

Here is an interesting chart. It is the 60-min ES through today. Note we have had a Selling Climax, Automatic Rally, Secondary Tests, and now a Spring. The Wyckoff Principles have thus far proven themselves. This is pretty textbook for Wyckoff and fairly bullish. Note, however, that we have not had a significant Sign of Strength at this point (i.e., we have broken Minor Creek, but not Major Creek), and this is important. Also note that there was fairly heavy volume to the upside today; this calls for a Test before rallying higher. Nevertheless, this looks bullish to me. Others, of course, saw triangles & hinges, or whatever, and call for further downside. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. The best trade will be made on a Back Up to the Edge of the Creek (BUEC), should that occur.

 

Please note that this is only the 60-minute chart. It is not the start of a bull market by any means. If it pans out, though, it could be a half-way decent rally in a bear market. Let's see.

 

Eiger

 

 

well i'm finding it hard to argue with a fairly neutral position. lol. all i can say is that it is repeating a pattern seen in September of finding supply in an area where supply was diminishing. increasing volume on declines is not bullish.... supply was being tested out on the "secondary test" however price is now finding more supply on the "spring" so to me that is rather bearish.

 

a bear market rally could be in the works but the open interest disagrees with that forecast. the rally would have to be short cover driven and the shorts appear to be holding pat.... indicating professional bearish sentiment.

 

best regards

[kuky969 10]

Winnie

CREEK is Wyckoff terminology - see attached document .There is a few words about it.

MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf

[BlowFish 10]

Actually I think 'creek' was adopted at a later stage. (possibly by SMI?) You'd have to ask someone from the 'orthodox church of Wycoff' or the young SMI upstarts (only joking guys).

 

The way I understand it (which may be flawed) is it simply describes a break out, price jumping across a creek. I have never understood why people come up with 'memory aides' for things that are simple to remember if you make an effort to actually understand them. Imho it's one of those things that obfuscates rather than clarifies.

[tawe trader 10]

Over the last week or so, I have been looking at combining VSA with Wolfe Waves.

 

Was is a Wolfe Wave ? for those don't know, according to the chap who discovered it, Bill Wolfe, the Wolfe Wave is a natural rhythm that is made up of waves of supply and demand that form their own equilibrium.

 

So, if Wolfe Waves are based on supply and demand waves and VSA is based on supply and demand, maybe it is wise to try and mix them both together.

 

I have modified Eiger's (I hope you don't mind) 60 min ES chart to what I see, as a bullish Wolfe Wave.

 

If we have seen a bullish 'spring' at point 5 and we are going to see a bear mkt rally, we now have a potential target to aim for. That is a line from point 1 to 4 projected forward, which Bill Wolfe calls a 'target line'.

 

All comments welcome, good or bad.

 

Tawe

[traderveritas 10]

Tawe,

 

This is pretty interesting. While outside the VSA thread, Wyckoff uses P&F charts to calculate potential targets during accumulation and distribution phases. Using a 10 point/one box reversal chart I get 18 columns of count which multiplied by the 10 point box size yields a current potential of a 180 point move. The target this generates is in the range of 1000 - 1100 (using the low or the approx midpoint of the accumulation) which is fairly consistent with the Wolfe Wave targets.

 

Mike

[jjthetrader 10]

Tawe,

 

This is pretty interesting. While outside the VSA thread, Wyckoff uses P&F charts to calculate potential targets during accumulation and distribution phases. Using a 10 point/one box reversal chart I get 18 columns of count which multiplied by the 10 point box size yields a current potential of a 180 point move. The target this generates is in the range of 1000 - 1100 (using the low or the approx midpoint of the accumulation) which is fairly consistent with the Wolfe Wave targets.

 

Mike

 

Thank you. Very interesting stuff. I love point and figure charts.

[larsdelgars 10]

Tawe,

 

This is pretty interesting. While outside the VSA thread, Wyckoff uses P&F charts to calculate potential targets during accumulation and distribution phases. Using a 10 point/one box reversal chart I get 18 columns of count which multiplied by the 10 point box size yields a current potential of a 180 point move. The target this generates is in the range of 1000 - 1100 (using the low or the approx midpoint of the accumulation) which is fairly consistent with the Wolfe Wave targets.

 

Mike

 

An entire village in Africa doesn't have enough fingers and toes to count the number of W bottom / Spring / Basing patterns that fail in a bear market.

 

We need to consider the most likely scenario... dead cat bounce.

 

http://www.davemanuel.com/2007/12/31/what-is-a-dead-cat-bounce/

 

some random link off google

[traderveritas 10]

An entire village in Africa doesn't have enough fingers and toes to count the number of W bottom / Spring / Basing patterns that fail in a bear market.

 

We need to consider the most likely scenario... dead cat bounce.

 

http://www.davemanuel.com/2007/12/31/what-is-a-dead-cat-bounce/

 

some random link off google

 

This could turn out to be the case. Re-distribution has many of the same characteristics of accumulation and it is only after we see a change of character of the market in favor of one outcome or the other will we truly know. In fact, the Wyckoff count I mentioned doesn't argue for anything other than a relatively small rally at this time. I only made the comment in that I found it interesting that it ended up with targets which were consistent with the Wolfe Wave.

[tawe trader 10]

An entire village in Africa doesn't have enough fingers and toes to count the number of W bottom / Spring / Basing patterns that fail in a bear market.

 

Lars,

 

I tend to agree with you but there can be multi-week rallies, even in a strong bear mkt, plus there's the seasonal factor to take into consideration.

 

Nobody on this thread is calling the ultimate bottom at the moment, only expressing what they currently see, based on the tried-and-tested Wyckoff method and in my case (via a Wolfe Wave) the possible height / target of any bear mkt rally.

 

Tawe

[Eiger 10]

Tawe,

 

This is pretty interesting. While outside the VSA thread, Wyckoff uses P&F charts to calculate potential targets during accumulation and distribution phases. Using a 10 point/one box reversal chart I get 18 columns of count which multiplied by the 10 point box size yields a current potential of a 180 point move. The target this generates is in the range of 1000 - 1100 (using the low or the approx midpoint of the accumulation) which is fairly consistent with the Wolfe Wave targets.

 

Mike

 

There is also resistance from the recent downtrend channel at that level and the Wolfe Wave projection. If price does rally to that level, it would be a good place to look for a reversal. P&F charts are used in Wyckoff & VSA and are useful for targets and S/R.

[sleepy v2 10]

Hi Eiger,

 

Have been enjoying reading all your posts over the past 6 months. Lots of good info for those willing to take the time to read and practise your many suggestions/recommendations.

 

What was your take on the recent VSA/TradeGuider symposium you've just been to? And was it worth the time/expenses you incurred?

 

sleepy

[larsdelgars 10]

Lars,

 

I tend to agree with you but there can be multi-week rallies, even in a strong bear mkt, plus there's the seasonal factor to take into consideration.

 

Nobody on this thread is calling the ultimate bottom at the moment, only expressing what they currently see, based on the tried-and-tested Wyckoff method and in my case (via a Wolfe Wave) the possible height / target of any bear mkt rally.

 

Tawe

 

yawn... i'm turning in early tonight.....

 

i don't think anyone can disagree that bear markets have rallies

 

generally the seasonal factor that you speak of is an October event or setup and that time has passed... another "seasonal" even also occurred and was priced in and sold into... and that is a 10% rally for a democratic president... i captured this event and sold into the outcome as everyone made it clear they were heading for the nearest exit....

 

when i see threads like this where every trader is agreeing with one guru prediction... i run... i don't walk to the nearest exit..... furthermore i find it funny that a trading methodology is being used to make forecasts about future events as opposed to making trading decisions.... if memory serves who called a bottom in September??? i know i didn't because i was short..

 

look... the market is making lower highs and lower lows.... volume is sequentially increasing on declines and decreasing on rallies.... supply is being found and levels where it was diminishing... take a look at what happened in the previous bear market consolidation that ended in September with a break to the downside.

 

so then the argument was a bear market bounce... well ... like my article stated about bear market bounces... either driven by short covering or value accumulation... as i stated earlier the open interest dismisses a short covering rally... value buyers are spooked by extremely opaque balance sheets and bogus level 3 assets coupled with the fact that insurance in the options market is a major loser thanks to all the volatility priced in.

 

so who is the buyer??? the smart money? nope absolutely not... the data absolutely dismisses that... in fact the data suggests that the buyer nowadays is the small timer trying to grab the bottom... the floor traders/locals simply looking for a 5 - 10 handle bounce or the plunge protection team looking to blow American tax dollars on another hail mary attempt to base the market... i'm fairly sure the VSA book even states that pro's do not orchestrate waterfall declines/strait line declines because even they cannot handle the supply thrown onto the market....

 

so what side of the market are you on? personally i'm with the smart money and the smart money is short.

[HAKUNA 10]

No more PMs please,

The Bootcamp cds and London Symposium DVD - SOLD

[mike_ITL 10]

I have mine on sale.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Mike

[taks1990 10]

Hi guys

 

As I am starting out in VSA, what real time software would you recommend, if I can't afford to spend c.$3,000 on the Tradeguider RT?

 

Unfortunately, my parents bought me VSA5 when I was at university and I pursuaded them that I had time to study AND make use of VSA but it never worked out and, now, years later when I want to get back into studying the markets, VSA5 is no longer in existence and my old disks don't work!

 

Thanks all

 

Mark

[HAKUNA 10]

Hi guys

 

As I am starting out in VSA, what real time software would you recommend, if I can't afford to spend c.$3,000 on the Tradeguider RT?

 

Unfortunately, my parents bought me VSA5 when I was at university and I pursuaded them that I had time to study AND make use of VSA but it never worked out and, now, years later when I want to get back into studying the markets, VSA5 is no longer in existence and my old disks don't work!

 

Thanks all

 

Mark

 

 

Get in touch with Gavin Holmes ASAP before they jack up the price at Tradeguider, explain the situation and I am sure some agreement can be reached to replace the old VSA5.

[delta 10]

Hi,

Can someone provide the link of Sebastian's pdf of nov. last year?

Thanks& regards,

Delta

[Eiger 10]

Update to Spring Idea

 

We've had two relative narrow range down days on lesser volume ($SPX), and today was a NR4 day (though not an inside day), indicating professional activity to the downside has lessened.

 

Yesterday's action was less constructive, however - a down bar after a Bottom Reversal/Spring. It would have been much more constructive to have seen an up bar yesterday.

 

The market is close to the danger point (lows), and needs to rally away from the danger point, otherwise new lows are likely. When price hugs the lows after a rally, it indicates lower prices. Price hasn't been hugging here, but nevertheless, needs to rally to give support to the Spring idea.

 

On the longer term, the second chart is a monthly chart. We are over sold on the trend channel. The 2002 lows are near. It would be surprising not to eventually at least test these lows.

 

Hope this is helpful,

 

Eiger

[Eiger 10]

...

 

What was your take on the recent VSA/TradeGuider symposium you've just been to? ....

 

 

Well, I am pretty biased as I was a part of the presentations, but people who attended had very positive comments about it.

 

Gavin open the conference and discussed several different charts, including the APPL and Oil charts. Gavin is quite a good trader as well as businessman, and I learned several useful things from him. Sebastian--an absolutely true wizard of the charts and terrific person--talked about VSA's major SOSs and SOWs, then gave his preferred set ups of both strength and weakness.

 

Tom Williams was truly amazing - he spoke about everything from individual VSA principles to broad concepts on how to trade the markets. I was truely honored to meet him.

 

Tom, Sebastian and Gavin did live sessions in the S&P e-minis showing live SOWs, SOSs, set ups and actual trades. Brad Bedford Brown did two live sessions in the FX markets from Australia, discussing his individual set ups in those markets, several of which we saw live. David Blundell, another great Aussie trader (and great person) offered two of his well-researched set ups (one of which I have been using to great success since).

 

Hank Pruden, professor at Golden Gate University, talked about classic Wyckoff analysis--a real treat for me as a Wyckoff guy Paul Avins, an inspiring guy and business coach from London, talked about how to take yourself to the next level.

 

Harvey Loomstein, a nueropsychologist, and I (sport, human performance & clinical psychologist) talked about how to develop a solid VSA trading plan, including how to become skilled at VSA, how to avoid common metal/emotional pitfalls, and how to think like a trader.

 

As I said, people who attended were quite pleased, though again, I'm biased. I thought the content was more than sufficient to develop your own trading plan, complete with solid set ups. Everyone tried very hard to convey an understanding of how the market truly works and to provide the tried and true ways to become a competent trader. I was quite impressed with the content and quality of the material provided. But that is just my opinion. Maybe someone who attended from this board can comment?

 

Eiger