[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[mister ed 10]

It's best to go straight to the source. Why would you go anyplace else? The Wyckoff/Stock Market Institute was originally founded by RD Wyckoff (as Wyckoff Associates). It has operated continuously since the 1930s. There is over 100 years of Wyckoff information here. The best place to start is with the Course. Here is the link: http://wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/

 

Eiger - that is a great post with the Point and Figure charts thank-you. I admire you for keeping them by hand - do you update them throughout the trading day?

 

For such an apparently simple chart the Point & Figure is rich in meaning. I have been given much instruction in their use by a very valuable friend and mentor but feel I am still just scratching the surface in their application. For showing the build up of 'cause' and risk ... outstanding.

 

On Wyckoff resources, I have posted before on what is around the net and will add to your link to the SMI-Wyckoff Associates link with a copy and paste of my previous posts...

 

 

Hi JJ - There is not an abundance of good Wyckoff material on the net, only a few sites.

 

There is the Yahoo group run by Gassah (who contributes to this board and this thread), this is at:

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Wyckoff-SMI/

 

There is a broker site with material, at:

http://www.ltg-trading.com/site%20map.htm

with archives at

http://www.ltg-trading.com/archives.htm

 

Gassah put me onto this info at:

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=54872

 

I learnt a lot on Wyckoff from a poster on other forums, goes by the name of 'motorway' on Australian Stock Forums and The Chartist forums. While the specifics and charts of what he talks about refer to Australian equities, most of the posts are more to do with principles, which are of course applicable to any liquid, exchange-trade instrument.

If you search for his name on

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/

and

http://www.thechartist.com.au/forum/ubbthreads.php

you will get great info.

 

Motorway put me onto this website, which introduces Wyckoff really well, in a straightforward manner:

http://www.stockmarket-operator.com/

Really good as introductory material.

 

Nearly forget, there are many articles around by Hank Pruden, do a search for his name and there are quite a few pieces. He has written a book recently, which I haven't read yet, and runs a course in San Francisco.

Also, articles around by Coppola and Forte. (Sorry I don't have links, but they are easy to find).

 

 

 

OK, paid resources are even fewer.

 

There are books by Richard Wyckoff himself, check them out at Amazon or wherever. There is his 'Day Traders Bible' which can be found as a free download around the place too.

 

There is a book by Jack Hutson: Charting the Stockmarket, The Wyckoff Method. I found it a difficult read, probably because I thought it was an introductory text, or beginners text. It is much more than that and as your knowledge grows of Wyckoff it pays re- and re-reading, there is a lot in it. This book is really cheap, its $14.95 at Amazon and its value is much much more than the better marketed technical analysis books out there.

 

Then finally there is the Wyckoff course run by the Stock Market Institute, at:

http://wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/

 

There are free resources on this site at

http://wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/corner.htm

The article at

http://wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/goal_article.htm

is great introductory material.

 

Thats it - if you find other resources, post them up!

 

Here are the links to the articles by Forte and Coppola.

Edited May 17, 2008 by mister ed

[mister ed 10]

I should also add Gassah posts to the "Riding the Wyckoff Wave" thread here on TL too.

[gassah 10]

Another thing that has keep me bullish is the point & figure chart. The first figure chart (FC) is a 5 point FC of SPX (a pdf file; use the view tab to rotate). I draw this by hand based off the 15-minute chart.

 

Bull's-Eye Broker from http://www.archeranalysis.com will create these charts for those who don't want to do them by hand or use http://www.stockcharts.com. I placed the counts where Eiger did on his chart.

[Eiger 10]

Eiger - that is a great post with the Point and Figure charts thank-you. I admire you for keeping them by hand - do you update them throughout the trading day?

 

For such an apparently simple chart the Point & Figure is rich in meaning. I have been given much instruction in their use by a very valuable friend and mentor but feel I am still just scratching the surface in their application. For showing the build up of 'cause' and risk ... outstanding.

 

 

Thanks, MrEd. The figure charts are really something, aren't they? Wyckoff used them extensively, and they can be a big help in intermediate trading. Funny these haven't been discussed. Bob Evans is the early Wyckoff trader at Wyckoff/SMI I referred to. He did extensive work on the figure charts and came up with a succinct way to use and understand them - really great work, including ways to use the FC to time the market. His Count Guide is linked below, for anyone interested. Consult the Wyckoff/SMI Course - unit 2 and especially unit 3 to learn about figure chart application.

 

These are the only things I do by hand anymore, but definately find it useful to do. These are based off the 15-minute chart and updated at the end of the day. I don't try too keep figure charts intraday, though sometimes if there is a long sideways line on the intraday chart, I will do a quick FC to see the potential move. For anyone who hasn't kept charts by hand, its quite good to do. You definately get a feel for the market, which you don't get from the computer screen. As i mentioned earlier, its one of the key things that had kept me bullish despite the weak rally.

 

You can also go to stockcharts.com and get free figure charts, which i often do for a "quickie read" on a stock. There is an inexpensive program called Bullseye Broker (archeranalysis.com) that has good software for figure charting. The other things out there that i have seen use different methods than Wyckoff did, so i don't know how useful they are.

 

Thinking of hand charts, I used to keep hourly hand bar charts of the major indexes and key stocks, if you can believe it. For intraday, I also used to keep 5-minute swing charts by hand. These are also very valuable to do. (I now have this computerized along with the Wyckoff/SMI O-P index that updates intraday, so I don't even do that anymore!) Doing the hand work is really valuable, though. Another very useful thing I still always do is annotate the bars during the day and mark the VSA indications. It's useful just to go bar-by-bar and note up bar/down bar, spread, volume, significance. Do this a while and it will quickly improve your chart reading abilities.

 

Eiger

COUNT GUIDE.doc

Edited May 17, 2008 by Eiger

[Eiger 10]

On Wyckoff resources, I have posted before on what is around the net and will add to your link to the SMI-Wyckoff Associates link with a copy and paste of my previous posts...

 

 

http://wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/ This is where the original/authentic material on Wyckoff is located. Personally, I think it is wise to be very wary of all the rest. Everyone else adds their own interpretations, ideas, adds things, deletes things, etc. You can get the Wyckoff Course here, plus a wealth of realated materials.

[DbPhoenix 42]

http://wyckoffstockmarketinstitute.com/ This is where the original/authentic material on Wyckoff is located. Personally, I think it is wise to be very wary of all the rest. Everyone else adds their own interpretations, ideas, adds things, deletes things, etc. You can get the Wyckoff Course here, plus a wealth of realated materials.

 

The original course may be available through SMI, but Wyckoff's original course is not the same as the SMI course which, as you point out, "adds its own interpretations, ideas, adds things, deletes things, etc". The original course is also considerably cheaper, assuming that Schroeder (who is the Institute) is still willing to sell it separately (the SMI course is currently AFAIK around $900; gassah is in regular contact with Schroeder, so he would likely have the most up-to-date information). Excerpts from the original course can be reviewed on the Wyckoff thread.

[Eiger 10]

The original course may be available through SMI, but Wyckoff's original course is not the same as the SMI course which, as you point out, "adds its own interpretations, ideas, adds things, deletes things, etc". [/url].

 

Unit 2 encompasses the original Wyckoff Course and is fundementally the same as the original, mostly reformatting and some clarifying - hardly a reinterpration. The Course was later expanded mainly by the excellent work of Bob Evans. The additional material was kept separate and is found in Unit 3. The other three units include an introduction & overview of the method (Unit 1), practice trading methods (Unit 4) and a "final exam" (Unit 5). There is much valuable material that supplements the course also available from Wyckoff/SMI.

 

The comment: "Everyone else adds their own interpretations interpretations, ideas, adds things, deletes things, etc" refers to forum threads, blogs, websites, books, software and the like regarding Wyckoff trading. Each of these is neccessarilly a reinterpretation (often quite poor and woefully misinformed, though a few good) of what Wyckoff/SMI has been studying and refining for over 100 years. So again, why not go to the source?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Unit 2 encompasses the original Wyckoff Course and is fundementally the same as the original, mostly reformatting and some clarifying - hardly a reinterpration. The Course was later expanded mainly by the excellent work of Bob Evans. The additional material was kept separate and is found in Unit 3. The other three units include an introduction & overview of the method (Unit 1), practice trading methods (Unit 4) and a "final exam" (Unit 5). There is much valuable material that supplements the course also available from Wyckoff/SMI.

 

The comment: "Everyone else adds their own interpretations interpretations, ideas, adds things, deletes things, etc" refers to forum threads, blogs, websites, books, software and the like regarding Wyckoff trading. Each of these is neccessarilly a reinterpretation (often quite poor and woefully misinformed, though a few good) of what Wyckoff/SMI has been studying and refining for over 100 years. So again, why not go to the source?

 

Going to the source is always the preferred route, which is why I use the original course.

 

As to whether the differences are fundamental or not, this is easily determined by putting the original course in one window and the SMI interpretation in another, then comparing the two. Whether one prefers the original or the SMI interpretation is a personal choice, but one that should be fully-informed. The original course is also considerably less expensive.

 

In any case, none of this has anything to do with VSA. I suggest that a moderator open up a thread entitled "Wycoff Resources" and move all of it, beginning with winnie's original question, to that thread.

[mister ed 10]

In any case, none of this has anything to do with VSA. I suggest that a moderator open up a thread entitled "Wycoff Resources" and move all of it, beginning with winnie's original question, to that thread.

 

VSA is based on one of Wyckoff's laws - Effort and Result - and so saying "none of this has anything to do with VSA" is not correct. The developers of VSA also note their debt to Richard Wyckoff's teachings.

 

As per your suggestion I will start a thread entitled Wyckoff Resources.

Edited May 17, 2008 by mister ed

[DbPhoenix 42]

VSA is based on one of Wyckoff's laws - Effort and Result - and so saying "none of this has anything to do with VSA" is not correct. The developers of VSA also note their debt to Richard Wyckoff's teachings.

 

As per your suggestion I will start a thread entitled "Wyckoff Resources" - stay tuned.

 

By "none of this", I meant the discussion of Wyckoff resources. The concepts developed by Dow, Wyckoff, and Schabacker are the basis for virtually all non-indicator-based approaches to the market: supply/demand, support/resistance, trend/non-trend.

[Eiger 10]

Going to the source is always the preferred route, which is why I use the original course.

 

As to whether the differences are fundamental or not, this is easily determined ...

 

You are forever complaining about the differences between the original, SMI, and VSA. Why don't you highlight all the differences on the new Wyckoff Resources thread instead of always bitching and moaning about it everytime someone makes a post regarding SMI or VSA.

 

Eiger

[DbPhoenix 42]

You are forever complaining about the differences between the original, SMI, and VSA. Why don't you highlight all the differences on the new Wyckoff Resources thread instead of always bitching and moaning about it everytime someone makes a post regarding SMI or VSA.

 

There wouldn't be anything on which to comment if you would stop making the claim that the original course and the SMI course are identical. As for "complaining", I'm merely pointing out the differences. There's no need to do so unless the claim is made that there aren't any.

 

This particular discussion stemmed from winnie's request for information on Wyckoff. Given the results, I suggested that it be moved to a separate thread, which has been done.

 

Let it go.

[Eiger 10]

As for "complaining", I'm merely pointing out the differences ...

 

But you have never pointed out the differences, just complained. There was a whole new thread set up before to discuss complaints and differences about VSA, to which you chose to never avail yourself. You simply continued to bitch and moan here. You always do this and have never substantiated your complaints. Now you have another opportunity. So highlight the differences in the new thread. Then maybe you can let it go?

 

Eiger

[DbPhoenix 42]

But you have never pointed out the differences, just complained. There was a whole new thread set up before to discuss complaints and differences about VSA, to which you chose to never avail yourself. You simply continued to bitch and moan here. You always do this and have never substantiated your complaints. Now you have another opportunity. So highlight the differences in the new thread. Then maybe you can let it go?

 

Eiger

 

Why do you persist? The discussion had to do with the original Wyckoff course vs the SMI course (and, yes, I have pointed out the differences; do a search). All that has been moved to another thread. I was done until you started this up again two posts above. All this will be deleted anyway, so what's the point?

[OAC 10]

The concepts developed by Dow, Wyckoff, and Schabacker are the basis for virtually all non-indicator-based approaches to the market: supply/demand, support/resistance, trend/non-trend.

 

How about Gann ? Wasn't he one of their comtemporaries ? Besides his writings, his amazing trades were verified by the Ticker magazine back in 1909. I guess nothing is popular with the TL crowd here unless it has something to do with volume ?

[Eiger 10]

The discussion had to do with the original Wyckoff course vs the SMI course (and, yes, I have pointed out the differences; do a search). All that has been moved to another thread.

 

Amazing how you avoid the subject. You have never pointed out the differences; just complained. Whatever.

[DbPhoenix 42]

How about Gann ? Wasn't he one of their comtemporaries ? Besides his writings, his amazing trades were verified by the Ticker magazine back in 1909. I guess nothing is popular with the TL crowd here unless it has something to do with volume ?

 

Actually, Wyckoff seems to have thought that Gann was pretty hot stuff, which I found surprising (and I should have included Elliott). But perhaps this could be addressed in the new Wyckoff Forum rather than the VSA thread (what you quoted was posted before the new forum was created).

[mister ed 10]

Re the point and figure charts a few posts ago I should add in addition to Gassah's software suggestions that I use Investor R/T for my live P&F charts.

 

Investor R/T builds the P&F from tick data (as long as you have the data feed) and does so flawlessly.

[mister ed 10]

the new Wyckoff Forum

 

Hey, this is cool! So we now have on TL a Candlestick sub-forum and a Wyckoff sub-forum - this is excellent and highlights the quality of this board. James is once again to be commended!

[mister ed 10]

How about Gann ? Wasn't he one of their comtemporaries ? Besides his writings, his amazing trades were verified by the Ticker magazine back in 1909. I guess nothing is popular with the TL crowd here unless it has something to do with volume ?

 

Hi OAC. One thing I have noted with curiosity is the absence of Gann and Elliot related threads on our forum. While I am not a fan of either approach I respect those that are, the users of Gann and Elliot generally seem to put a lot of work into their studies, and am surprised the two fields have not been discussed at TL.

 

The board seems to be attracting a lot of new participants so hopefully we can attract new fields and threads for discussion too.

[mike_ITL 10]

Hi guys,

 

can I ask for a comment about the attached chart ?

 

I list here below my notes, but don't know if these can be considered correct.

 

A - wide range high volume bar; next bar is a doji ... hidden selling in A ?

 

B - test of supply in a rising market: no supply found

 

C - no demand bar

 

D - seems like a little upthrust ith higher volume here, with the next bar closing in the lower half portion of its range with low volume.

 

Shouldn't this be a sign that there is no demand in the market ?

 

Kind regards,

 

Mike

[tawe trader 10]

A - wide range high volume bar; next bar is a doji ... hidden selling in A ?

 

Hello Mike,

 

I would look at the bar you marked A as being bullish and not bearish.

 

Tom Williams would see this action as an indication of strength, pushing up through resistance (to the left). This is effort and demand to go up and normally it will be followed by a rest. Look for signs of strength (no supply / test) to confirm and then go long.

 

Hope this helps

Tawe

[mike_ITL 10]

Thank you so much Tawe!

 

I have some difficulties in widening my view also to background, as I tend to concentrate onlu on the last few bars.

 

Really like a lot this thread, please keep it up!

 

Have a great day,

 

Mike

[Eiger 10]

Over the weekend, I was reminded of a wonderful quote out of Wyckoff's (aka Rollo Tape) great little book, Studies in Tape Reading: "The study of responses ... is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market." This is such a great concept to keep in mind. A look at the hourly chart of the ES from the Spring in mid-March shows this pretty well. After the shakeout at A, reactions were orderly (B & C), or they held gains very well (D & E), refusing to budge lower. The last two reactions in particular indicated higher prices as the market absorbed the overhanging supply from the August 2007 low and the top of the recent trading range before breaking out of that range.

 

Here's a fun excercise. Take a look at the second chart. There is no date or other identifying data on this chart. You can see the rising wedge formation comining into resistance. This pattern predicts a big break down, right? Some were saying the same thing about this current market, in fact more than once Now look at the third chart posted to see the result of that wedge.

 

The heart of technical analysis lies in that simple quote of Wyckoff's, I think. Patterns and chart formations certainly catch the eye, but often they are just eye candy. Like Wyckoff, VSA is also highly concerned with responses. When we see a Sign of Weakness develop, for example, we want to see it tested with the No Demand principle before trading it. The No Demand shows us that there is no response to the upside, and gives a green light. There are lots of other areas in VSA where the idea of responses applies.

 

I was glad to be reminded of this quote. I put it up on my monitor to remind me of its value, least I forget it

 

Eiger

[Eiger 10]

Thank you so much Tawe!

 

I have some difficulties in widening my view also to background, as I tend to concentrate onlu on the last few bars.

 

 

Hi Mike,

 

Great question and a great response from Tawe.

 

I sometimes do the same thing (forget to widen the view). We can get so excited at seeing an indication, we just want to jump in

 

One thing that helped me with this, was to make a simple rule before taking a trade. When I saw what I thought was a set-up, instead of jumping right in I told myself to Stop, Look left (and also to the higher time frame), and then Decide. (Stop, Look, Decide). It sounds corny, but making this into a little rule helped me quite a bit. In a fairly short period of time, I basically trained myself to follow this little procedure every time before taking a trade.

 

You see atheletes do this all the time. A tenise player will adjust the strings after a point or bounce the ball a few times before the serve. These little rituals aren't just strange quirks. They are done purposefully as a quick way to help them focus and prepare to play the next point. We can do the same thing in trading with little cues like Stop, Look, Decide.

 

Eiger