[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[DbPhoenix 42]

Where did all these balloons and confetti come from.....

[Sledge 13]

......................................................

[Sledge 13]

Ok VSA'ers-- I have a riddle for all of you.

 

Posted below are (2) charts a GBP/USD 1 Hr and a GBP/USD 4 hr.

 

On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming.

On the 4 Hour chart you see an upthrust after a nice start to the downward move. Which is indicative of further decline.

 

So if you were to take a trade looking at these charts. Would you go long? Or would you go short?

 

Looking forward to how everyone reads and analyzes this to come to a conclusion!

 

 

[mister ed 10]

Nic (gassah) and I are thinking of opening up a Wyckoff thread

 

Read this 24 hours ago and have been looking forward to it. Sounds good.

[Guest forsearch]

Ok VSA'ers-- I have a riddle for all of you.

 

Posted below are (2) charts a GBP/USD 1 Hr and a GBP/USD 4 hr.

 

On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming.

On the 4 Hour chart you see an upthrust after a nice start to the downward move. Which is indicative of further decline.

 

So if you were to take a trade looking at these charts. Would you go long? Or would you go short?

 

Looking forward to how everyone reads and analyzes this to come to a conclusion!

 

[ATTACH]5959[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH]5960[/ATTACH]

 

Since you are trading spot forex, where are you getting the volume shown in your charts from?

 

-fs

[tawe trader 10]

On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming.

 

Sledge,

 

Don't you mean wall of SUPPORT around 1.9705 ?

 

 

Regards

Tawe

[Sledge 13]

Since you are trading spot forex, where are you getting the volume shown in your charts from?

 

-fs

 

Each platform from your broker should have a volume indicator attached. The MT4 has a pathetic "on-chart" volume (If you go to right click on chart, properties and radio button "volume,) and it also has the nice "tick" volume you see on my charts under the "indicators" tab.

 

But I have used plenty of platforms and all give you access to volume- be sure you are getting TICK volume though- that is the key to success in Forex!

[Sledge 13]

Sledge,

 

Don't you mean wall of SUPPORT around 1.9705 ?

 

 

Regards

Tawe

 

Honestly, I guess this is a debatable term. To me the market is working downward, so for it to go further, I call it resistance, whether correct or not as the term I'm not sure. Basically, it is a congestion area that it needs to be cracked, so I personally call that resistance if it is to penetrate it.

Sledge

[tawe trader 10]

Honestly, I guess this is a debatable term. To me the market is working downward, so for it to go further, I call it resistance, whether correct or not as the term I'm not sure. Basically, it is a congestion area that it needs to be cracked, so I personally call that resistance if it is to penetrate it.

Sledge

 

I get your meaning now.

[thrunner 10]

I guessed support can turned quickly to resistance, but in formalizing a description, it should probably be called support because it has been the recent past swing lows.

Forex volume data are also 'tick' based data in that it is not something reported by an exchange and therefore only reflects a small subset of the total volume. It is like taking a poll in your own neighborhood which may not accurately reflect the national or international poll.

[Sledge 13]

Forex volume data are also 'tick' based data in that it is not something reported by an exchange and therefore only reflects a small subset of the total volume. It is like taking a poll in your own neighborhood which may not accurately reflect the national or international poll.

 

I have had this discussion before and it is basically, up to the trader to determine whether he/she feels it is valid or not. The principle is as follows:

1. Since Spot FX is NOT centrally Located, tick data will come from your broker and will be based on the contracts THEY carry.

2. My usage of the Tick Volume as per each platform- Each broker is carrying a small percentage of the TOTAL overall contracts being traded at any given time in the market.

3. It is my firm belief after looking at various brokers and platforms tick based volume that the actual # on the volume bar is less significant as the OVERALL relativity of the said bars SIZE in relationship to the preceeding bars on the "left of the chart"

4. So in a sense on a 1 hr bar my broker may have 3,879 as Volume- Your broker may have 4,856. If we compare the relative volume with the background- we are still able to make trading decisions via VSA.

5. I do believe that tick volume of any nature in Forex (because it is the best we are able to attain) is useful as long as we are looking at it in relative terms based on where you trade.

 

Sledge

[Guest forsearch]

Each platform from your broker should have a volume indicator attached. The MT4 has a pathetic "on-chart" volume (If you go to right click on chart, properties and radio button "volume,) and it also has the nice "tick" volume you see on my charts under the "indicators" tab.

 

But I have used plenty of platforms and all give you access to volume- be sure you are getting TICK volume though- that is the key to success in Forex!

 

So it's not traded volume, but just the tick movement of each bar on the chart, correct?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Forex volume data are also 'tick' based data in that it is not something reported by an exchange and therefore only reflects a small subset of the total volume. It is like taking a poll in your own neighborhood which may not accurately reflect the national or international poll.

 

That's true. But, even if one were able to obtain universal tick volume, it would indicate only the "busy-ness" of the trading, not share or contract volume. Whether one finds it useful or not depends on whether or not he's tossing virgins into the volcano.

[Sledge 13]

So it's not traded volume, but just the tick movement of each bar on the chart, correct?

 

Well it is traded volume- volume = activity

High Volume means pro $ is in on the bar (and the herd will be there as well)

 

So say you are at a market top- you see a high volume bar- with a narrow spread. It is an indication that there are herd demanding higher prices and professional money offloading all the longs to them as fast as they can. But the pro $ is bearish. So on that bar that looks "little" the volume is very high, because their was a transferring of ownership going on.

 

That bit of information will tell you quite a bit about what is coming next in the trend.

Sledge

[Guest forsearch]

Well it is traded volume- volume = activity

High Volume means pro $ is in on the bar (and the herd will be there as well)

 

Sledge

 

OK. :crap:

 

So it's not really volume then. Just price movements on the chart.

 

Good to know you agree. :rofl:

 

-fs

[dandxg 10]

I have had this discussion before and it is basically, up to the trader to determine whether he/she feels it is valid or not. The principle is as follows:

1. Since Spot FX is NOT centrally Located, tick data will come from your broker and will be based on the contracts THEY carry.

2. My usage of the Tick Volume as per each platform- Each broker is carrying a small percentage of the TOTAL overall contracts being traded at any given time in the market.

3. It is my firm belief after looking at various brokers and platforms tick based volume that the actual # on the volume bar is less significant as the OVERALL relativity of the said bars SIZE in relationship to the preceeding bars on the "left of the chart"

4. So in a sense on a 1 hr bar my broker may have 3,879 as Volume- Your broker may have 4,856. If we compare the relative volume with the background- we are still able to make trading decisions via VSA.

5. I do believe that tick volume of any nature in Forex (because it is the best we are able to attain) is useful as long as we are looking at it in relative terms based on where you trade.

 

Sledge

 

Sledge consider getting the GTIS feed from Esignal. They aggregate tick volume from a number of broker dealers and ECN's. It's $100 per month I believe but would easily pay for itself if you trade enough. I have never traded forex, but ppl. that do, that I have chatted with, said it's pretty much the gold standard if you are going to trade forex. Now with that said Esignal has had some issues recently in fast moving markets with data lag on ES and CME in general so take that for what's it worth.

[Sledge 13]

Dan-

Excellent- great to know, well I have been in discussions for a broker move soon to an ECN anyways. This would require me to get my own charting and datafeed- and Esignal is on the list to consider.

Thanks.

Sledge

[dandxg 10]

Sledge- I just sent you a PM. I don't want this thread getting off track.

[Sledge 13]

Ok VSA'ers-- I have a riddle for all of you.

 

Posted below are (2) charts a GBP/USD 1 Hr and a GBP/USD 4 hr.

 

On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming.

On the 4 Hour chart you see an upthrust after a nice start to the downward move. Which is indicative of further decline.

 

So if you were to take a trade looking at these charts. Would you go long? Or would you go short?

 

Looking forward to how everyone reads and analyzes this to come to a conclusion!

 

[ATTACH]5959[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH]5960[/ATTACH]

 

 

Still no takers on this? Wow, I'm stunned really. Thought it would be a great discussion at a live edge of a market. I decided to use the 1 hour timeframe and take a quick long at 1.9717

Closed out after the test followed by upthrust formation at 1.9745.

Quick and dirty for a 28 pip grab.

Sledge

[jjthetrader 10]

Still no takers on this? Wow, I'm stunned really. Thought it would be a great discussion at a live edge of a market. I decided to use the 1 hour timeframe and take a quick long at 1.9717

Closed out after the test followed by upthrust formation at 1.9745.

Quick and dirty for a 28 pip grab.

Sledge

 

Hey Sledge, maybe no takers because it doesn't fit anybody's personal style for long or short at the moment of your chart. From where it was sitting I wouldn't take any postition. I'd have to see how it acted in real-time.

 

FX is funny to. Do we really want to include bars from the Asian session and call them no demand or no supply just because Asians weren't interested in Cable? If I were trading cable then I'd be interested in what London and NY are interested in. Tradeguider doesn't teach it that way but it's just something I'd give more weight to.

 

How about you post a chart and tell us what you would do. I think that would get more feedback.

 

cheers mate

[Sledge 13]

JJ-

Fair enough. I know some folks have asked to have "live edge" trading examples if at all possible. I figure if it was "I'd take no position" accompanied by reasoning for such- would be a benefit to anyone trying to navigate through this muddy time on the GBP.

 

You are correct that the Asian session is always the slow time in the Cable market, but if Tom Williams states that "The professionals never sleep" I can only assume that we must give some weight to the movement- no matter how little the volume is.

 

Sledge

[brownsfan019 17]

Ok VSA'ers-- I have a riddle for all of you.

 

Posted below are (2) charts a GBP/USD 1 Hr and a GBP/USD 4 hr.

 

On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming.

On the 4 Hour chart you see an upthrust after a nice start to the downward move. Which is indicative of further decline.

 

So if you were to take a trade looking at these charts. Would you go long? Or would you go short?

 

Looking forward to how everyone reads and analyzes this to come to a conclusion!

 

[ATTACH]5959[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH]5960[/ATTACH]

 

Ok, this is just priceless.

 

First - no responses from anyone even taking a stab at whether you go long or short here.

 

Second - the fact that the question is - should I go long or short here - just emphasizes how arbitrary this VSA stuff really is. It's either a long or short and it should not be hard to figure out which one IMO.

 

I have NO IDEA the answer to your riddle, but it sure is entertaining to read yet another post in this thread about whether to go long or short...

 

This VSA thread is quite the interesting read from afar. Seems like a lot of the blind leading the blind... is anyone actually using this stuff in real-time? If so, where are they at?

 

I just can't get over the 'do I short or go long here' posts... If that's difficult, good luck managing your stops and profit targets.

[Sledge 13]

Bf-

Well I actually posted this so that people could attempt to answer what they see. I wanted to spark some conversation about what people saw and how if they were faced with this chart- what would their move be?

 

JJ stated he would take no trade.

I happened to go long but CAREFULLY long

 

I wouldn't say that because it failed to spark the conversation I hoped for, that VSA should be written off as a form of technical analysis.

Sledge

[brownsfan019 17]

Bf-

Well I actually posted this so that people could attempt to answer what they see. I wanted to spark some conversation about what people saw and how if they were faced with this chart- what would their move be?

 

JJ stated he would take no trade.

I happened to go long but CAREFULLY long

 

I wouldn't say that because it failed to spark the conversation I hoped for, that VSA should be written off as a form of technical analysis.

Sledge

 

I guess I don't understand how you can't tell if you should go long or short. That's about as elementary as trading can get - long, short, no action - and throughout this thread there are examples of people not sure which one to do! And it's all about VSA.

 

From an outsiders view, that would say this VSA thing isn't nearly as clear as some may think it is, ESPECIALLY in real-time. And in the end, that's all that counts. After the fact charts do not put real $$$ into an account.

[Sledge 13]

I guess I don't understand how you can't tell if you should go long or short. That's about as elementary as trading can get - long, short, no action - and throughout this thread there are examples of people not sure which one to do! And it's all about VSA.

 

From an outsiders view, that would say this VSA thing isn't nearly as clear as some may think it is, ESPECIALLY in real-time. And in the end, that's all that counts. After the fact charts do not put real $$$ into an account.

 

I wasn't asking for personal advice. I saw a nice real live situation present itself while I was flicking through my timeframes and said- Hey this would be a good lesson for others to try and figure out as well.

 

Since it was a real-time, live edge chart(s)- my basic question was if you were sitting there, you saw what I posted, what would you have done? I may have gotten a range of answers such as:

 

A. I'd wait for a higher volume downward move through the 1.97 area and confirm to go short

B. I am a scalper and I would have used the 1 hr chart to go long, watch the bars form and manually exit.

C. I would have done nothing since their was low volume and it was the Asian Market.

 

It was more of a curiosity as to what others see when looking at the very same information. I made my trade, banked $ and was happy. Guess I thought others may have seen it totally different and taken their own path.

Sledge

Edited April 11, 2008 by Sledge