The Right Coach/Mentor?

[joshdance 10]

  steve46 said:

In addition there are multiple levels of supply and demand and knowing which one to trade is the important issue...most retail traders cannot isolate real support because they don't know how to define it...for me again it depends on time frame...I prefer to start with longer time frame charts....define my supply/demand levels and then work my way down to shorter time frames. When you do this, what you see is that eventually you get down to a more workable level of risk (because the range of prices that constitute supply or demand gets condensed down)....

 

The problem I have here is that this forum doesn't lend itself to what you need to see...on a long term chart...you need to see price leave a swing high or low and move significantly away....then make a base, and finally start to re-trace...as you move to shorter time frames....this model becomes the best way to visualize supply because you can see how price tests all the "in between" levels...the ones that retail trader think of as support or resistance....thats the way most of us learn...and I don't have the time to take people on that journey and still do my own work.

 

Thanks Steve-- as you are busy with your own work I have done the work on this daily chart of oil. I labeled the supply and demand areas in the blue rectangles, and the corresponding return to those areas with the arrow and circled areas. Am I on the right track here?

 

Obviously any time frame will have a higher time frame to look for more "established" supply and demand areas, so I assume you pick one and then drill down, say, from daily to hourly maybe, so I attached an hourly chart with these same areas.

 

2 questions:

 

1. Would you ever use a non time-based chart, like a volume chart, to identify these areas, or is it important how quickly price moves away from a s/d area, thus using a time based chart would be more effective? (personally I would use hourly and 5 minute charts for my trading as I don't have the risk tolerance for the daily and hourly)

 

2. As you said above, obviously the important thing to know is WHICH area of supply or demand will "hold". I think price action is a good key here, as I've annotated in the charts in a couple of places, looking for long tails, etc.. but as you can see often after multiple rejections of a level, price will go just a bit further and then reverse (see A2 and B2 on the hourly chart). No one will ever be right all the time, but is there any way I can increase the probability of "getting in" at a good level? As you said, managing the risk is important, and I suspect this is key.

 

I will be happy to do more "homework" and post more charts, but I wanted to get your thought if I'm in the right direction first. Thanks Steve!

[steve46 12]

  joshdance said:

Thanks Steve-- as you are busy with your own work I have done the work on this daily chart of oil. I labeled the supply and demand areas in the blue rectangles, and the corresponding return to those areas with the arrow and circled areas. Am I on the right track here?

 

Obviously any time frame will have a higher time frame to look for more "established" supply and demand areas, so I assume you pick one and then drill down, say, from daily to hourly maybe, so I attached an hourly chart with these same areas.

 

2 questions:

 

1. Would you ever use a non time-based chart, like a volume chart, to identify these areas, or is it important how quickly price moves away from a s/d area, thus using a time based chart would be more effective? (personally I would use hourly and 5 minute charts for my trading as I don't have the risk tolerance for the daily and hourly)

 

2. As you said above, obviously the important thing to know is WHICH area of supply or demand will "hold". I think price action is a good key here, as I've annotated in the charts in a couple of places, looking for long tails, etc.. but as you can see often after multiple rejections of a level, price will go just a bit further and then reverse (see A2 and B2 on the hourly chart). No one will ever be right all the time, but is there any way I can increase the probability of "getting in" at a good level? As you said, managing the risk is important, and I suspect this is key.

 

I will be happy to do more "homework" and post more charts, but I wanted to get your thought if I'm in the right direction first. Thanks Steve!

 

1. I always use time based charts..time and price have an equivalence that cannot be ignored. That is why my "time based pivots" work so well. With regard to time frame, I start my pre-market analysis the night before starting with weekly charts, moving down from daily to 12 hour, 8 hour, 4 hour, 2 hour and hourly charts...If you try this you will notice that the S/D levels change as you move from one time period to the next...about an hour prior to the open I plan my first two trade entries, the same way a pro footbal coach plans his opening plays. Because I have been doing this for so long, it really doesn't matter what time frame I use...its a matter of using whatever helps you visualize the action. Frankly at this point in time, I could (and I have on several occaisions) simply put my trades on listening to the pit action...So the message is use whatever helps you to see the market accurately...

 

2. In the S&P market, the pit and other players will often drive price in such a way as to take out previous swings by enough to flush out the amatuers who are by definition weak hands. Simply put institutions and speculators are capitalized so that they can afford more risk than you...They know that and are always going to try to shake you out. Your options are to manage the risk with smaller size or pass on the trade and look for another opportunity.

 

3. Generally speaking you are identifying S/D pretty well. It would be impossible to transmit all the nuance of the subject to you in a few posts here....How you progress from here depends on your ability to see the obvious....for instance you identify one area where there are two (2) supply/demand nodes stacked together in close proximity...This tells you that you have strong imbalance at that point. Now the question is what happens when price comes back to test that area? For me the answer is you make some assumptions based on how price "left" those S/D nodes and when price retraces, you watch and evaluate the tape to see if there will be a held bid or offer...(that is where the importance of learning to read the tape comes in). You have a good start and now it is a matter of continued observation.

 

Good luck

Edited March 27, 2011 by steve46

[joshdance 10]

Thanks for the feedback Steve.

[xkr1962 10]

  steve46 said:

Wow....Incredible....I have to admit that your interpretation of my comments was "surprising"

 

I remember a crazy old gentleman trader named Ed Seykota, who said (among other things) that we all get just what we want from the markets....I have been very fortunate and seems that I have already got what I wanted....I can only hope that you get what you want as well..Best of luck to you sir (or madam)...

 

Yes, sorry I was trying to be diplomatic.

 

You can keep things simple or try to make things more complicated than they really are.

 

Good luck to you too.

[Ingot54 13]

  steve46 said:

1. I always use time based charts..time and price have an equivalence that cannot be ignored. That is why my "time based pivots" work so well. With regard to time frame, I start my pre-market analysis the night before starting with weekly charts, moving down from daily to 12 hour, 8 hour, 4 hour, 2 hour and hourly charts...If you try this you will notice that the S/D levels change as you move from one time period to the next...about an hour prior to the open I plan my first two trade entries, the same way a pro footbal coach plans his opening plays. Because I have been doing this for so long, it really doesn't matter what time frame I use...its a matter of using whatever helps you visualize the action. Frankly at this point in time, I could (and I have on several occaisions) simply put my trades on listening to the pit action...So the message is use whatever helps you to see the market accurately...

 

Hi Steve - sorry for not acknowledging earlier the good info that you and others have shared through discussions on this thread. It has created a lot of "work" for me in that there are new concepts to be explored.

 

I too analyse the market (Forex) from the Monthly right down to the 15Min, skipping only 1H and 30Min. But because FX is different from ES (eg you can trade the EURUSD in exactly the inverse way you trade the USDEUR if that chart existed - and it does if you know who provides it) Supply and Demand may be different, can they not? It is a question I raise, because the ES has a different "short" momentum to the "long" momentum. That is - stocks fall faster than they rally.

 

But FX rises and falls the same - there is no "sell-off" as such - one pair acts as the base currency and the other the "supply" currency, depending on which of them is being bought or sold. The roles switch (base/supply) according to buy/sell positions. I hope I have explained that.

 

If I got that right, it means that the supply demand can not be used in FX the same as it can with ES. For myself, I use the Daily and Weekly Pivot Points - they are just arbitrary levels - zones more than specific levels - and they deliver a measure of consistency for me in the way I trade. I call this "Support and Resistance" ... but again, rather than being a specific point of rejection or a buy limit, I see these as zones, and allow a buffer around the level when trading.

 

I hope you can confirm I have this "close enough" to being correct in interpreting your meaning. If not, could you please elaborate a little more on the difference between a support zone and a demand zone and a resistance zone and a supply zone.

 

  Quote

2. In the S&P market' date=' the pit and other players will often drive price in such a way as to take out previous swings by enough to flush out the amatuers who are by definition weak hands. Simply put institutions and speculators are capitalized so that they can afford more risk than you...They know that and are always going to try to shake you out. Your options are to manage the risk with smaller size or pass on the trade and look for another opportunity.[/quote']

 

Same mechanism ... different drivers of price ... same result. The strategy is to keep in touch with the higher TF - the true driver of the lower trends, and stalk the trade until it is clear the "noise" is now in sync with the higher TF trend.

 

  Quote

3. Generally speaking you are identifying S/D pretty well. It would be impossible to transmit all the nuance of the subject to you in a few posts here....How you progress from here depends on your ability to see the obvious....for instance you identify one area where there are two (2) supply/demand nodes stacked together in close proximity...This tells you that you have strong imbalance at that point. Now the question is what happens when price comes back to test that area? For me the answer is you make some assumptions based on how price "left" those S/D nodes and when price retraces' date=' you watch and evaluate the tape to see if there will be a held bid or offer...(that is where the importance of learning to read the tape comes in). You have a good start and now it is a matter of continued observation.[/quote']

 

I agree with that. Vigilance is the price one pays for success ... and I would think it is not too high a price! Watch ... and win.

 

My commitments last week, and this week have prevented me from continuing in the discussion - I particularly wanted to express gratitude to those who contributed in such a cutting way, as to expose the bones, as it were.

 

Challenging each other on craft, conduct, context and concept, is sometimes a little unpleasant. But the outcome is always worth it, if we can keep cool in the process.

 

Couldn't resist resorting to alliteration

 

Always learning from you folks ... thanks.

[steve46 12]

Well Ingot, I cannot trade Forex in my business so for me there is only one possibility (exchange traded currencies)....

Here is the Euro chart and as you can see, Supply/Demand works as it always did...

 

The important points to notice as mentioned in my previous post...You want to see a strong move away from supply with few retracements (or just shallow retracements)...You want to see a base created and you want to hit it, on the first retest...you have to be willing to manage risk and you have to have enough capital (and the experience) to bet properly...The reason I post this is to show retail traders the possibilities..Long at 1.4225...first scale out at 1.4004, next scale out at 1.3900, 1.3750, 1.3550, 1.3425, 1.3045 and finally at 1.2890. If the trade work as projected I will hold approx 3 months.

Edited March 28, 2011 by steve46

[Ingot54 13]

  steve46 said:

Here is the Euro chart and as you can see, Supply/Demand works as it always did...

 

The important points to notice as mentioned in my previous post...You want to see a strong move away from supply with few retracements (or just shallow retracements)...You want to see a base created and you want to hit it, on the first retest...you have to be willing to manage risk and you have to have enough capital (and the experience) to bet properly...The reason I post this is to show retail traders the possibilities..Long at 1.4225...first scale out at 1.4004, next scale out at 1.3900, 1.3750, 1.3550, 1.3425, 1.3045 and finally at 1.2890. If the trade work as projected I will hold approx 3 months.

 

Thanks Steve - had quite a lot to do away from trading these past couple of weeks, so I was surprised to get back and see that the Euro has rallied again.

 

Given that the shorts look too wobbly, where does that leave us with supply and demand at the moment?

 

I would be looking to cover shorts - or would have done already - much earlier than the current price.

 

How long do you hold onto the short? It doesn't look like the supply/demand strategy went according to plan this time. Did I miss another signal?

 

Thanks

 

Ingot.

[steve46 12]

Hello Ingot

 

As you mentioned in a note to me, you don't participate in this time frame...so yes you "missed a signal"

 

As regards supply/demand it never fails...all you have to do is take the time to look carefully at the charts, and what is required is simply that you scan through starting with longer time frames and working toward the shorter fime frame.

 

Here is an updated chart. I have put in the nearest demand level and added volume...I do this because my venue (exchange traded currencies) offers something that Forex does not...and that is the ability to use volume to verify a move...now all you have to do is think....how does it work? So in this case it is counter-intuititive....think for a moment..when price is going to reverse....why will it do that? is it because there is a lot volume at a price? or because there is low volume or nearly no volume at a price? look down at my chart and you see the answer....

 

When price hits a demand level, what happens, volume falls off...what to do...simply scan the next time frame

[steve46 12]

and here I have displayed the next two time frames down from my original chart

 

here on the 240 min time frame you see what I call confirmation...in the chart above, volume fell off significantly as price tested the demand level...there was no demand to move price down

 

THEN, volume came back (demand appeared as it always does) and price took off (retraced)

 

The important part of this Ingot is that you can see the re-test....this happens quite often and gives the trader another shot at getting on board....

 

Now whats interesting to me...is whether or not you get it.....because this "works" on all time frames and without fail....if you know where to look and then think about what it takes to move price...all you have to do is ask the questions

 

1. Is this a level where price has volume to support a move or

2. Has volume fallen off indicating no further interest to move price up or down

[steve46 12]

and here on the 120 minute chart you can see the increased volume on the retrace as buyers come back in to move price up

[joshdance 10]

  steve46 said:

here on the 240 min time frame you see what I call confirmation...in the chart above, volume fell off significantly as price tested the demand level...there was no demand to move price down

 

THEN, volume came back (demand appeared as it always does) and price took off (retraced)

 

The question steve, is, volume fell off... relative to what (or rather, when)? I don't have my charts up but this looks like a time when volume would normally be low anyway. Maybe it was the sunday evening open, or a US afternoon, or...? Volume would necessarily be off at that time. How about comparing the volume of that candle to the last 20 or 30 candles at that time on that day, to get a relative volume?

[steve46 12]

  joshdance said:

The question steve, is, volume fell off... relative to what (or rather, when)? I don't have my charts up but this looks like a time when volume would normally be low anyway. Maybe it was the sunday evening open, or a US afternoon, or...? Volume would necessarily be off at that time. How about comparing the volume of that candle to the last 20 or 30 candles at that time on that day, to get a relative volume?

 

As I have said (a couple of times now) to find an entry you continue to scroll to smaller time frames

 

Relative to what?...well, those of us who actually trade these markets know what normal volume is like for the time frame we operate in....you start with that basic knowledge and then you look at volume relative to the previous bar or candle...as mentioned (one more time) there are only two ways for this to play out...the first is that selling interest deteriorates (there are no more sellers), so when orders to sell are completed the next order (a buy order) moves the market up...this is illustrated in many charts IF you take the time to SCROLL THROUGH THE TIME FRAMES....the other option is that buy and sell orders are evenly matched for a short time, then new orders to buy enter the market and when all the sell orders are gone, the next buy orders move the market up.....I hope this is clear...

[MightyMouse 12]

  steve46 said:

and here I have displayed the next two time frames down from my original chart

 

here on the 240 min time frame you see what I call confirmation...in the chart above, volume fell off significantly as price tested the demand level...there was no demand to move price down

 

THEN, volume came back (demand appeared as it always does) and price took off (retraced)

 

The important part of this Ingot is that you can see the re-test....this happens quite often and gives the trader another shot at getting on board....

 

Now whats interesting to me...is whether or not you get it.....because this "works" on all time frames and without fail....if you know where to look and then think about what it takes to move price...all you have to do is ask the questions

 

1. Is this a level where price has volume to support a move or

2. Has volume fallen off indicating no further interest to move price up or down

 

Steve,

 

Based on your current analysis, should you be getting short the euro again or should you be considering a long?

 

MM

[stpips89 10]

  pricetrader99 said:

Hey stpips, I learned quite a bit from Nial as well, he seems to be pretty good with teaching PA, you can actually learn a lot just from his free stuff, fyi.

 

I totally agree with you! Good to see another Nial supporter up in here.

[Ingot54 13]

  stpips89 said:

I totally agree with you! Good to see another Nial supporter up in here.

 

You can add my name to that list - a member since 2009!

[stpips89 10]

  Ingot54 said:

You can add my name to that list - a member since 2009!

 

Sweet! Lots of good stuff.

[stpips89 10]

Speaking of good stuff over at LTTTM, since I'm a member there I get all the weekly article updates emailed to me, here is a really good one sent today: The Human Mind VS. Computers in Forex Trading

[pricetrader99 10]

  stpips89 said:

Speaking of good stuff over at LTTTM, since I'm a member there I get all the weekly article updates emailed to me, here is a really good one sent today: The Human Mind VS. Computers in Forex Trading

 

EXCELLENT article, thanks so much stpips!

[Ingot54 13]

  stpips89 said:

Speaking of good stuff over at LTTTM, since I'm a member there I get all the weekly article updates emailed to me, here is a really good one sent today: The Human Mind VS. Computers in Forex Trading

 

Agree, Stpips - Nial Fuller continues to produce quality content.

 

I don't know how he continues to maintain his personal involvement with his clients the way he does. He personally answers emails and posts market updates daily for his members.

There is a large difference between TL and LTTTM - the two sites are chalk and cheese, and I don't see a conflict. Both cater for totally different trading tastes. I would like to see more PA discussion here, though the reality is there is only a very small number of traders switched on to it. So sites like LTTTM will always command the centre stage there - being already-specialised.

 

One of the misconceptions people have of him (NF), is that you can get all you need for free, without joining or paying for his Price Action course. That is only partly true, as you know.

 

What you don't get by being a lurker, is the full market commentary that members get. And you don't get access to "members only" site content. And you don't get the personal assistance and guidance from the forum, and the man himself. And you don't get the email updates, member-only articles and so on.

 

Nial Fuller is my idea of a good coach and mentor - he is there ALL the time, and will go to any lengths to ensure his members are understanding the PA trading principles.

 

Nial treats non-members with the same respect as he does his members though. He replies to all enquiries, regardless of membership status.

 

We have the same kind of thing happening on this forum, if you know where to look, and who to ask. You only have to to do a bit of research yourself. The difference is that trader commentary on this site is not specifically focused on price action. In fact I think there is only one dedicated PA thread:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f104/trading-pa-no-indicators-3492.html

 

The good thing about PA trading is that the trade is either there or it isn't. And you get to take the best of the best, knowing that when you get it right, the pips will be there.

 

Nial told me that ideally, traders should only need to trade about 8 to 12 times a year!

 

Can't see anything wrong with that idea. But I guess most people want to be "doing more" in an active way to be earning their living ... I suffer from that!

[kuokam 10]

I really wonder why such a good looking person couldn't find one gallant man here to mentor her. Now she has gone somewhere else to continue her quest.

Shame on us! :o

 

 

  angelaktariel said:

So, I am wondering, how does one find a coach? How do you even look for one? Do you look for one that you can see face to face, or someone you just talk to on the phone, or just in a chat room? I don't know where to start.

 

I am at the point, where I want to find someone who can help me set up my day trading system. I am trying to keep it simple as Brownsfan says, but I need to be able to speak to someone about the day to day things one does, when they do trading full time.

 

I am about to get the right capital to have a good chunk to trade with and for now I am looking to trade stocks strictly. I would be interested in futures and options, but I don't want to get an overload and want to learn those as I have perfected one thing at a time.

 

So, I am asking you guys, those who really jumped into this, as I am planning on, how do you find a coach, mentor, or whatever you may call that person who is going to help you day to day in the beginning.

 

I would appreciate the help. The education is tremendeous here, so I know I am asking the right people. If anyone would like to call me, if they have time for a chat, even a quick one, if they can help, please send me a PM and I will send you my cellphone number, as I wasn't sure if I should just advertise it for the world literally to see...hehehe.

 

Thanks,

Eva

[aom 10]

where do professional traders get trained? do the institutions they work for provide them with formal training?

[Chippy 10]

I personally think the best trading coach is yourself. You just have to learn the basics, and then you will be able to trade on your own. It does help to have someone guide you. I know a lot of people do not like websites that sell services, but in reality it is like you are paying for a college education. Just make sure you find a good one.

 

With that said, I do follow one guy at Live Trading Zone | Live Futures and Commodity Trading He is very nice and not self absorbed like most of the well known bigger website people out there. You can talk about whatever in the chat room, ask any questions you want and he will answer it. His website is very helpful too for all futures trading contracts and things like that. But to learn about trading and the basics...he is the one to go see. Remember, only you can teach yourself through years of experience how to trade, but the base needs to be laid down. To start that look for someone who can help you make money instead of going broke like 90% of first time day traders I think he does a free trial, but you can email him on his contact page, I am sure he can answer your questions.

 

Oh, also you wanted a broker....TradeStation is the best out of any I think. I have tried a few, but they have the best platform if you want to daytrade.

 

Chippy

[Chippy 10]

Damn...I didn't look at the date. I thought it was only 4 posts long haha....sorry

[pricetrader99 10]

  Ingot54 said:

Agree, Stpips - Nial Fuller continues to produce quality content.

 

I don't know how he continues to maintain his personal involvement with his clients the way he does. He personally answers emails and posts market updates daily for his members.

There is a large difference between TL and LTTTM - the two sites are chalk and cheese, and I don't see a conflict. Both cater for totally different trading tastes. I would like to see more PA discussion here, though the reality is there is only a very small number of traders switched on to it. So sites like LTTTM will always command the centre stage there - being already-specialised.

 

One of the misconceptions people have of him (NF), is that you can get all you need for free, without joining or paying for his Price Action course. That is only partly true, as you know.

 

What you don't get by being a lurker, is the full market commentary that members get. And you don't get access to "members only" site content. And you don't get the personal assistance and guidance from the forum, and the man himself. And you don't get the email updates, member-only articles and so on.

 

Nial Fuller is my idea of a good coach and mentor - he is there ALL the time, and will go to any lengths to ensure his members are understanding the PA trading principles.

 

Nial treats non-members with the same respect as he does his members though. He replies to all enquiries, regardless of membership status.

 

We have the same kind of thing happening on this forum, if you know where to look, and who to ask. You only have to to do a bit of research yourself. The difference is that trader commentary on this site is not specifically focused on price action. In fact I think there is only one dedicated PA thread:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f104/trading-pa-no-indicators-3492.html

 

The good thing about PA trading is that the trade is either there or it isn't. And you get to take the best of the best, knowing that when you get it right, the pips will be there.

 

Nial told me that ideally, traders should only need to trade about 8 to 12 times a year!

 

Can't see anything wrong with that idea. But I guess most people want to be "doing more" in an active way to be earning their living ... I suffer from that!

 

I agree Ingot. I've been a member for sometime now at LTTTM and the value is outstanding. Nial really does go out of his way to help traders learn his strategies.

[Wyckoff Trader 10]

  aom said:

where do professional traders get trained? do the institutions they work for provide them with formal training?

 

I was sent on 1 x 1 day Technical Analysis course, probably about 5 years after I started trading for the Bank !

 

No courses in Trading, Money Management, Psychology, Fundamentals etc - It was very much training "on the job" for me.

 

Cheers