Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

james_gsx

Recession Exposure

Recommended Posts

Disclaimer: No, I don't think we'll crash. No, I don't expect or want a crash. Yes, I am a bear. Now onto the thread. But the facts are in our face, this is a shaky market and things are a lot worse than we see in the daily news. As day traders, we are probably the best prepared considering we rarely hold anything over night and we can quickly adapt to new markets. But what if we have $500,000 just sitting there, how can we protect it?

 

Let's say our worst nightmare came true and the markets did in fact crash. Whether that be in one day or over the course of say a week. How would you best prepare yourself? Not just for the day, but for the longer haul. Maybe even a deep recession, obviously you don't want to be long your typical stock.

 

A few ideas I have are, long gold, long government bonds, and basically puts on the markets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, we better not crash. I took a long at the close yesterday in my long-term portfolio based a potential completion of an ABC correction on the daily chart. I have a tight stop, and risk vs. reward looks great at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

James,

The ideas for protecting a long only portfolio can be very basic to exotic.

 

Some basic ideas:

But puts

Covered calls

Buy a short ETF

Some exotic ideas:

Use futures to hedge (what many big money managers use them for)

Can do some neat stuff with options (options on stocks and/or futures)

Stock futures

 

Just a few ideas that come to mind. I know 'exotic' may not seem like much here, but to the average investor, those are some exotic ideas. I remember as a broker when going through a time like this, the long only portfolios were just in the shitter and people were panicking. Many would be in 100% cash by now or close to it. Many would sell out near the bottom, that's for sure. So some protection would be nice, but again, the average investor does not / will not think about ways to make money or at least protect what they have in a downfall market. Many just simply cash out somewhere near the bottom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My Roth has been sitting in cash since early 07 when I sold all my gold and silver stocks. To me once we take the pain of the downturn/next recession, with all the ETFs and global growth there probly won't ever be a better entry point as far as money that I'll need 30 years from now.

To my mind any drawdown right now is extremely expensive if you calculate what that drawdown will cost as far as 30 years of less capital compounding. With my current understanding I'm only interested in taking the easy money. The only real place I would suspect there is easy money right now is in corporate bonds but I don't know near enough about the bond space to gamble my long term money there.

Thats basically why I think sitting in cash and learning proper portfolio theory/valuation is the best long term investment for myself right now.

I'm all over this text when it comes out next month

http://www.amazon.com/Optimal-Portfolio-Modeling-Maximize-Control/dp/0470117664/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1200464407&sr=1-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I've been 100% cash since before that big move down in August. Back then it was an IRA so I couldn't really do anything but go long. I think this weekend I'm going to look into some bonds that we can hold for a few years and then some gold ETFs. I would feel more comfortable with an ETF rather than the actual futures contract since it seems to be pretty volatile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought some of you may find the two attached daily charts of Dow and S&P 500 interesting. They are two almost perfectly formed Butterfly Patterns with the right proportions textbook style. It is a very powerful pattern and it should hold. if it fails, then the market can get very ugly.

So Mr. Market, the ball is in your court.:o

DIA.png.81109e3eb95e56c4478f6ecfcf56ea50.png

SPY.png.ef7c1a4b86e0a0e79e840c3a6a086e10.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the average investor does not / will not think about ways to make money or at least protect what they have in a downfall market.

Sad but true. My older brother worked hard so he could retire early.

Sold his house and bought a boat.

House prices doubled over 2-3 years.

Diesel prices went up and boat prices went down.

Now he can't afford to buy back into a house.

It was all covered in the news, all you had to do was be aware of what it meant for you, but he chose to live in comfortably numb land and ignore simple obvious realities.

So he made a huge effort over many years to make money, then lost maybe three quarters of it over a few years from not caring to do some basic thinking that would have required no effort at all.

The contradiction staggers me.

 

Many just simply cash out somewhere near the bottom.

Which is probably when they should be buying in.

I am waiting to see if my brother does this too, his overseas share portfolio is the only other asset he has left and it will have taken a hammering.

 

Apparently Chinas stability is now a significant part of the equation and it is still not a free economy, it depends on the political regime jumping in the right direction. A person has to have mixed feelings on that one.

 

If I had significant money in the markets I think I would want to keep it liquid and able to move on short notice. One person's risk is another person's opportunity, perhaps.

 

I have difficulty picturing a full blown meltdown.

Money is no longer real, it is essentially valueless and governments seem able to invent as much capital as they please.

 

Individuals do not want to be holding big debts at this time, yet counties are universally heavily in debt and have been for decades without consequences, yet.

 

What markets and governments seem to fear is a drying up of confidence that leads to a drying up of liquidity, people hold onto cash to avoid risk.

Markets and governments are essentially parasites that take the profit from other peoples turnover. If the turnover stops, their profit stops, jobs go.

 

Given the size of modern government, the fear might not be job losses in the markets, but governments halving their employees. I have difficulty picturing how a modern economy would go into meltdown. Money does not have a rigid meaning anymore, at least for governments, it seems to be just numbers without any consequences. Yet clearly they have fear, I'm not sure how much though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OAC, I have seen those butterfly charts a few times but I don't really understand what they mean. For example, what would a potential target be if it held or if it broke?

 

When I look at the YM, I see a double top.

 

When I look at the weekly, I see a double top with several key support levels failed.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4816&stc=1&d=1200735579

 

And on the monthly I see the long term trend line holding, but I don't know how long it will hold for. It still looks like we might see lower 11,000s. But of course, I'm biased.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4817&stc=1&d=1200735579

 

 

So some explanation on that chart would be much appreciated! :)

ymdoubletop.thumb.jpg.6d26e63d413466ed6fd820575b04f550.jpg

ymmonthly.thumb.jpg.bf3a2d2b18efe0b0f9bdaeee93dbacd1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hi Brownfan - have you used any of the ETF's before to hedge? I'm not at the point right now where I would put on a hedge, since i'm still bullish, but a 2nd leg down from here on the dow, and I would seriously begin to consider this.

 

I've haven't had the need to hedge in the past few years, but I was thinking maybe shorting the SPY or DIA. I know there are a number of those short ETF's you are talking about, either 1X or 2X, but do you think the SPY or DIA would be a tighter correlation to set up a 'true hedge' to the market?

 

Is there a short ETF out there that is 2X the DOW or S&P?

 

 

James,

The ideas for protecting a long only portfolio can be very basic to exotic.

 

Some basic ideas:

But puts

Covered calls

Buy a short ETF

Some exotic ideas:

Use futures to hedge (what many big money managers use them for)

Can do some neat stuff with options (options on stocks and/or futures)

Stock futures

 

Just a few ideas that come to mind. I know 'exotic' may not seem like much here, but to the average investor, those are some exotic ideas. I remember as a broker when going through a time like this, the long only portfolios were just in the shitter and people were panicking. Many would be in 100% cash by now or close to it. Many would sell out near the bottom, that's for sure. So some protection would be nice, but again, the average investor does not / will not think about ways to make money or at least protect what they have in a downfall market. Many just simply cash out somewhere near the bottom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

True that James, it's difficult to say, this move down has been pretty hard so I'm expecting a snap back rally from here, but to put a hedge on at that point? It's iffy, We may have already hit the bottom or are close to the bottom.

 

The market always surprises, and with sentiment so bearish right now, I would be surprised if the market blasts in our face.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if we have hit bottom, I still wouldn't feel comfortable investing in any normal stocks. I still think we'll be in a typical bear market scenario for a while. But that's just my opinion that I got from my own research. And that's why I'm looking for a longer term hedge like gold and bonds. When I think we'll go back into a bull market then I'll start pouring my money into stocks. If I thought we'd see a crash or something like that I'd load up on ES shorts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ES down 6% from last night. This could be interesting tomorrow morning...

 

Wow, that is exciting. Most people pay attention to price, but I did a little timing work this past weekend (Nowadays I don't take any significant position unless, Price, Time and Pattern all come together). Just like price, where you may find confluence of support and resistance from several major levels like weekly pivots, 200 day ma...etc. There is a confluence of several time cycles due this week. Also if you notice, the first leg of the drop from 10/11/07 to 11/26/07 took 30 trading days, and the second leg of the drop from 12/11/07 to last Friday is 26 trading, so a few more days of the drop will still produce time symmetry. The Butterfly Pattern I mentioned last week can still be valid according to Pesavento(the originator of the pattern) but get extended from 127% to 162% of the distance of the rally from 8/16/07 to 10/11/07.

Since it is a Big Butterfly, the next extention would take the Dow down to 11,000. Because of several time cycle due this week, I didn't think Dow can still drop another 1000 points in a couple days. Now with the Globex down 6%, we are already halfway there. Wow !!

If Dow goes down to 11,000 this week, loading up on OEX call options would be the way to go anticipating a huge bounce . The way I look at it, the only way that we don't get a bounce at the 11,000 level is a complete meltdown of the Derivative Market . Trillion dollars worth of highly leveraged derivative products had been built up in the last few years, it is like an accident waiting to happen. If that happens, I will lose all my option premium, but then a Derivative Meltdown will throw the world's financial system into the stone ages. we would then have very little worry about a recession, because depression will be the word of the day.

5aa70e34dfd2a_chart-A.thumb.png.47510399bc48f30a798a81664d9fcd36.png

5aa70e34e63a6_chart-B.thumb.png.3e2995a0f830971b095ee5f6bd0565b0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.