Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

jperl

What is DEMAND/SUPPLY volume?

Recommended Posts

Thanks for the reference.

 

Aren't divergences btwn price and the TickMoneyFlow (standalone ie not considering KGI at all) equivalent to Delta divergences?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for the reference.

 

Aren't divergences btwn price and the TickMoneyFlow (standalone ie not considering KGI at all) equivalent to Delta divergences?

 

Hi zdo - I dont use tradestation and am not up to speed with TickMoneyFlow, if you could describe what it is then I could compare it with Delta?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi zdo - I dont use tradestation and am not up to speed with TickMoneyFlow, if you could describe what it is then I could compare it with Delta?

 

MisterEd,

 

Here is the code I am using for TickMoneyFlow


{-------------------------John Hudson's TickMoneyFlow Indicator------------------------}
{This code tries to keep up with how much money is actually entering or 
leaaving an issue in order to measure the buying or selling pressure on prices. 
It uses the snapshot Bid and Ask(CurrentBid, CurrentAsk) fields 
provided by TS to gauge whether a trade was  initiated from the buy or 
the sell side. Although you can never be sure whether a trade hit the tape 
in proper sequence with the Bid/Ask data, in general trades initiated from 
the buy side will go off at the Ask and trades initiated from the sell side 
will go off  at the Bid. In the case of a trade going off either between 
the Bid and Ask or outside the Bid and Ask, this code attempts to assign 
the trade to the most likely side of the market based on whether the 
trade was above or below the trade before it or, if the trade before it 
was at the same price, it determines what the status of the market was 
of the most recent trade in the past that was different from the current
trade's price. This code will run on any time interval.....
from 1 tick bars to daily bars.            }

[LegacyColorValue = true]; 
Inputs: 
Length1(2),
Length2(89),
ShowLinReg(false)
;

Vars:	
IntrabarPersist TickFlag(0),
IntrabarPersist OldPrice(0),
IntrabarPersist TMF(0),
IntrabarPersist NewTickVol(0),
IntrabarPersist MyBarVolume(0)
;

if BarNumber >= 1 then begin
NewTickVol = Ticks - MyBarVolume;
MyBarVolume = MyBarVolume + NewTickVol;
if (C>=CurrentAsk) then begin              
 TMF=TMF + (C * NewTickVol);
 TickFlag = 1;
end;

if (C<=CurrentBid) then begin
 TMF=TMF - (C * NewTickVol);
 TickFlag = 2;
end;

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C>OldPrice then 
 TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);
if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C<OldPrice then 
 TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);
if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 1 then   
 TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);
if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 2 then 
 TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);

OldPrice = C;

if BarStatus(1) = 2 then 
 MyBarVolume = 0;

end;

Plot1(TMF, "TMF");
Plot2(ama(Plot1, Length1), "");


if ShowLinReg then begin
Plot3(LinearRegValue(Plot1,Length1,0));
Plot4(LinearRegValue(Plot1,Length2,0));

end; //if ShowLinReg

 

The key logic is:

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C>OldPrice then

TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C<OldPrice then

TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 1 then

TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 2 then

TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);

 

 

Screen shots are attached for some of today’s action in a 102 tick YM chart.

TickMoneyFlow1.jpg shows the first hour and a half of trading. Notice at around 10:10 the directional and angular congruency with KlingerGoslin (oscillator) started to fall apart – rally was snuffed and TMF led way downward.

TickMoneyFlow2.jpg shows angular divergence at about 14:45 (see white up arrow). Again rally was short lived. Over at around 15:02 the KlingerGoslin ‘rallied’, but it was unconfirmed in magnitude by TickMoneyFlow and further sell off ensued.

TickMoneyFlow3.jpg shows strong buying on the KlingerGoslin from 15:16 through 15:20 presaging the late rally but the ‘aggressive’ :confused: action shown on TickMoneyFlow delayed it until ‘aggressives’ capitulated / reversed at around 16:42. At around 15:46, after KlingerGoslin had faltered, the ‘aggressives’ carried the rally into the close…

…maybe :\

 

As I compare the code for TickMoneyFlow with MarketDelta code (which, in TS, is in arrested development now because the Bid Ask data is random snapshots / is inaccurate (ie has a median inaccuracy of about 2.5% compared to T&S prints - but can err much higher)) I see immediately that TickMoneyFlow uses CurrentBid and CurrentAsk while MD uses InsideBid and InsideAsk and upTicks and downTicks

But my same original questions hold:

Is TickMoneyFlow a ‘squigly line’ representation of MarketDelta?

Or is it a different perspective on / dimension of 'volume'? and

How does TickMoneyFlow relate to the original question of this thread?

 

Many thanks.

TickMoneyFlow1.thumb.jpg.5c28bef5437de85eb0bd37456c08a38b.jpg

TickMoneyFlow2.thumb.jpg.df4ac7ac620208c6ced021fe826067ba.jpg

TickMoneyFlow3.thumb.jpg.76e87eee503d72ecec4ef6378f809834.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t know if I am going to be of much help with the question. The TickMoneyFlow looks to be trying to achieve the same thing as Volume at Bid/Ask Delta, but like you say there are many compromises in TMF, with random snapshots and inaccuracy. It appears that in principle, though, it trying to do the same thing.

 

As for TMF being just a “squiggly line†representation of the delta – on the chart I have posted delta is represented as a histogram, if it was represented as a line instead it would be a “squiggly line†too. There are many ways of representing the delta on the chart: can use a moving average of it, can apply an indicator to it, can chart its momentum, can sum it, and so on; it can be represented in its various forms as a histogram or line.

 

The one thing I would say that sets using the volume delta (or the TMF) apart is that it is not a “squiggly line†in respect that it is not derived from the price data, it is not an “indicator†as such. It is distinct data from the price data – sure the two are related, but a squiggly line indicator, like say the MACD or the RSI is derived from price whereas the volume delta, I would argue is not derived from volume, but is volume. Like the standard volume histogram found at the bottom of most standard bar charts is not derived from volume, but is volume. Of course, if you apply say an RSI on the volume delta (which you could do) then that is an indicator. I hope I am not stepping into a semantic minefield here… In short, I would say, as you ask, it is “a different perspective on / dimension of 'volume’â€Â.

 

Hope that answers your questions zdo – and thanks for the charts and ideas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup looks like a similar thing in a different can :) There are a couple of variations on this theme. There are a few different ways of plotting too.

 

I personally don't think it matters too much what flavour you use these are quite 'noisy' tools anyway (lets not even get started on smoothing!!). I use IB which aggregates ticks in fast markets anyway (so is inaccurate inherently). I think that maybe why my delta divergence research didn't come to much. As I say that didn't bother me as its not a direction I particularly want to go in just now.

 

I will carry on saving images of 1 tick charts as that is my particular interest. Trying to get a more visual overview (complete with history) of the tape. Trouble is I keep forgetting to save the images before shutting down!! As I have said (I think) this is to try to improve timing rather than for trade decisions.

 

Cheers.

 

EDIT PS the extra code looks like it is to deal with orders between the bid and ask but I only glanced at it rather than carefully examine the logic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi all,

Hope this is not off topic.

I just came across today's post in Steenbarger's blog who I suppose a lot of people read.

He uses both up/down tick by looking at the NYSE TICK(although he misphrases it in my opinion) and bid/ask volume in market delta.

Here's the link.

 

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi all,

Hope this is not off topic.

I just came across today's post in Steenbarger's blog who I suppose a lot of people read.

He uses both up/down tick by looking at the NYSE TICK and bid/ask volume in market delta.

Here's the link.

 

Cheers

 

I dont quite follow what Brett was talking about the TICKS telling a different story on the rally based on the FED announcement. That was premarket action with no TICK data available.

 

Here is a pic of premarket yesterday right before the crazy rally. I am currently not trading due to compliance (until end of Dec) but am jotting trade notes until then.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4465&stc=1&d=1197542085

 

When the markets did open up, price could not lift at all and TICKS were hinting weakness throughout the opening range.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4466&stc=1&d=1197542229

 

Also, although I used to use the TICKS as a guide to determine potential trend days... I have found developing market profile to be of more use.

 

During the first 90minutes my intuition was telling me that a potential downtrend was in development. However, this was clearly against the premarket rally/strength and took courage for any trade placements.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4467&stc=1&d=1197542378

 

Complete profile shows a normal variation day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4468&stc=1&d=1197542421

 

Key areas will be yesterdays value area.

5aa70e2b92d46_Dec.122007Chart1.jpg.96b70d00b39db66beb6bcf4a684497d7.jpg

5aa70e2b9a0e2_Dec.122007Chart5.thumb.jpg.cb1ea302679a47959e99441e64a1c20c.jpg

5aa70e2ba0f79_Dec.122007EducationalChart1.thumb.jpg.470ed2f46a74f4dd5f0b7d5c067e3206.jpg

5aa70e2ba478b_Dec.122007MPChart.jpg.1f8f2356e43a0a36deb3a86c115c81da.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I dont quite follow what Brett was talking about the TICKS telling a different story on the rally based on the FED announcement. That was premarket action with no TICK data available.

 

Maybe he was refering to the cumulative tick, which would make sense because he says it was below the 20 day average. I'm only guessing, I haven't looked at the TICK in a long time and didn't watch the market either.

 

Edit: ok found it:

 

The 1 min ticks were below the average of all 1 min ticks over the last 20 days on the FED day. The FOMC announcement was at 2:15pm so enough time for some market action. But I'm just rambling here, I don't have the kind of market insight you have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sparrow and James, thanks for those great posts – really excellent stuff.

 

Sparrow, I don’t think Dr. Brett was referring to the rate cut on Tuesday afternoon, but more to the announcements of co-ordinated actions of central banks to ease the credit crunch, an announcement which saw the US equity markets jump in pre-open on Wednesday morning (Dec 12) (ES Z7 from around 1491-ish to 1515-ish. I think his reference to the NYSE TICK readings were from when the market opened a half-hour later, as James points out the NYSE TICK is available during trading hours on the NYSE, not in pre-market.

 

Just out of interest sake I have included two charts, which show a 5000 Constant Volume candle, with the Bid/Ask volume in the middle pane, and the Bid/Ask volume based on the uptick/downtick interpretation. The first chart shows the pre-market, with the price impact of the announcement of co-ordinated central bank action. I have labelled "A" where the price bars attempt to fall in the face of buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Point B is where selling pressure outweighs buying pressure, but the price still rises.

 

The second chart is the first hour after RTH open. I haven't labelled anything but hopefully the detail is good enough for you to have a look at it.

5.png.91c912eb8e76abd17109e524e58a0871.png

6.png.92052f98748698e3892663e3768f2e28.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been trying the market delta demo out this week. Honestly, I don't see much use for any kind of historical bid/ask analysis after this. The moves are far too quick. It was interesting to see volume dry up and the bigger size come in at the bid when the top of this move this morning was rejected on YM. As far as the delta footprint chart though it seems to be nothing but noise. The bottom column delta is really cool though, i think thats alot more logical way to present the information than a histogram. I think it would be interesting to use a traditional chart instead of the footprint chart and just keep the bottom column and the far right bid/ask tape like breakdown. I don't know any software that can do this though?

marketdelta.png.21d7390b1a3c5bbff837f69a277d447d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been trying the market delta demo out this week. Honestly, I don't see much use for any kind of historical bid/ask analysis after this. The moves are far too quick. It was interesting to see volume dry up and the bigger size come in at the bid when the top of this move this morning was rejected on YM. As far as the delta footprint chart though it seems to be nothing but noise. The bottom column delta is really cool though, i think thats alot more logical way to present the information than a histogram. I think it would be interesting to use a traditional chart instead of the footprint chart and just keep the bottom column and the far right bid/ask tape like breakdown. I don't know any software that can do this though?

 

I was thinking of trying it out, but now I won't bother. Tasuki was on about up/down, bid/ask vol on the VSA thread and stated that it would explain VSA and enhance the trader's age but there has not been much follow up there in that regards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think it would be interesting to use a traditional chart instead of the footprint chart and just keep the bottom column and the far right bid/ask tape like breakdown. I don't know any software that can do this though?

 

There seems to be useful and unique data there....I have tried to extract it and visualise it in a variety of ways. Still no real joy in wringing something out. I did try plotting the delta (difference between V@bid V@ask) as a OHLC bar underneath the price bars. I can't post an illustration as it only works real time...I'll try and post a chart tomorrow if I remember.

 

It is perhaps the 'cleanest' looking representation and if I was to trade divergences (which I don't particularly want to) it would be something to consider.

 

It is also possibly the best representation as a 'proxy' for order flow through the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few days ago I asked the question “What is delta divergence?â€Â

It was a serious question.

To clarify –

Is it simply divergence in directions btwn price and delta (as when TickMoneyFlow is going down and price is going up)? OR

Is it ‘classic’ divergence (like higher price on this swing than last with a lower indicator high than last indicator swing high. etc) ? OR

Is it delta diverging from total volume in balance? OR

Something else? OR

Was it just a totally stoopid ‘them what just don’t get it’ question ?

That’s always a possibility with me :)… and btw

I don’t know where TL came up with an IQ of 59 for me.

This traders IQ is not 59

I taked this test and thay sed my IQ was 64 not 59

that is insulding and you put it up wer evrybodd can sea :\

 

Anyway bump to the question - What is delta divergence?

And thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is perhaps the 'cleanest' looking representation and if I was to trade divergences (which I don't particularly want to) it would be something to consider.

 

It is also possibly the best representation as a 'proxy' for order flow through the day.

 

I totally agree with the order flow proxy. Your plot sounds pretty interesting. Did you try doing what market delta does with the column delta? All that seems to be is contracts at the ask - contracts at the bid and then just spits out the number. Can't get more simple than that. The interesting thing with that though is its more like tape reading then, probly something you just have to get the feel for in real time through experience.

 

monad, I don't want to knock MD too hard. The footprint chart might be usefull if you put time into seeing patterns, I don't know. Its certainly worth the download and the free 30 days.

 

On the other hand though I really have to question if what happend delta wise X amount of time ago really has any meaning to current price action. If that is the case then any form of charting delta is really a waste of time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am looking forward to BF’s chart too – I know IRT can do something like this but I don’t want my posts to turn into ads!

 

DT, I trialled MD too, and I was really, really impressed with the footprint chart…but I couldn’t figure out how to put it to use. Like you say it is very fast, and very detailed, and I am sure it could be useful, but I couldn’t figure out what to do with it. I really wanted to use it, I still think it has great value, but …

 

The column totals are close to what I have settled on too, placed on your run-of-the-mill bar or candle charts – like I have said before the volume breakup can be presented many different ways and you can see how I am using it on the charts I have put up – buy volume and sell volume together rather than the difference. I wonder if the footprint might be more useful on individual stocks. I don’t have a real-time stock feed so I don’t know.

 

zdo, delta divergence is not a term I use, I think it refers to the situation where the price is moving in one direction while the “delta†(volume at bid minus volume at ask) moves in the opposite direction. While I don’t use the term I certainly look for this situation, I have pointed it out on the two most recent charts I have posted (above).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"..show a 5000 Constant Volume candle, with the Bid/Ask volume in the middle pane, and the Bid/Ask volume based on the uptick/downtick interpretation."

 

 

 

Mister Ed, your charts #34 are perfect!

 

One is clearly seeing when more “buyers” or “sellers” come in - it is showing low and high tide.

 

It would be very interesting to “see” with market profile eyes, at what levels buyers and at what levels sellers mostly came in.

 

So this could indicate their pain levels.

 

Perhaps you can plot your charts again with separated volume profiles (one for bid and one for ask volume), to see this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A few days ago I asked the question “What is delta divergence?â€Â

It was a serious question.

To clarify –

Is it simply divergence in directions btwn price and delta (as when TickMoneyFlow is going down and price is going up)? OR

Is it ‘classic’ divergence (like higher price on this swing than last with a lower indicator high than last indicator swing high. etc) ? OR

Is it delta diverging from total volume in balance? OR

Something else? OR

Was it just a totally stoopid ‘them what just don’t get it’ question ?

That’s always a possibility with me :)… and btw

I don’t know where TL came up with an IQ of 59 for me.

This traders IQ is not 59

I taked this test and thay sed my IQ was 64 not 59

that is insulding and you put it up wer evrybodd can sea :\

 

Anyway bump to the question - What is delta divergence?

And thanks!

 

Depends a bit on how you plot! The chart I am proposing you would see price making a higher high and the delta (cumulative for the day) make a lower high. Trouble with this method of displaying delta it sometimes goes completely in the oposite direction of price.

 

You could do worse than search over at ET for posts from a user called '5pillars' with 'delta' in the text. He has posted many examples of delta divergence followed by zero line cross. He resets the delta each bar though. (I think this may be what you are talking about its simply a graphical representation of the delta number at the bottom of each column).

 

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks BF for the chart and also the reference to 5pillars on ET. I am with you on trading the divergences - not something I really want to do but the method used by 5Pillars seems to be a good one along those lines.

 

Wunderlich - I don't think it is possible to do a volume profile with only the bid or offer volume unfortunately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is something interesting from marketdelta on YM this morning. I hadn't noticed that its also plotting delta by price along with the column delta which is a delta by period. In some sense, especially if your into MP, delta by price probly makes so much more sense than delta by period.

1221ymbreak.png.88bd59f7fc9be5f5c92ffe7fff90e525.png

1221ymtoprejection.png.93f57a477f206135db15978e5e895e2c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
its also plotting delta by price along with the column delta which is a delta by period. In some sense, especially if your into MP, delta by price probly makes so much more sense than delta by period.

 

This is probably along the lines that wunderlich was looking for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is probably along the lines that wunderlich was looking for.

 

Yes, but in combination with Constant Volume Bars (CVB: cf "ProfLogic" at ET-Board).

 

With Constant Volume Bars (CVB) = you can clearly see the trend of the market.

 

With MarketDelta Pricelevel-Delta = you can clearly (?) see demand / supply.

 

 

Together plotted one could have maximum market generated information with minimum chart complexity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, but in combination with Constant Volume Bars ...

Together plotted one could have maximum market generated information with minimum chart complexity.

 

Wunderlich, what you want can be basically achieved with the MD program.

The columns you can see on DT's charts from the MD program can be set to a constant volume value, so you would not be looking at CV bars, but at CV columns on a footprint chart - the column is equivalent to a bar anyway, its just presented a little differently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, but in combination with Constant Volume Bars (CVB: cf "ProfLogic" at ET-Board).

 

With Constant Volume Bars (CVB) = you can clearly see the trend of the market.

 

With MarketDelta Pricelevel-Delta = you can clearly (?) see demand / supply.

 

 

Together plotted one could have maximum market generated information with minimum chart complexity.

 

Not maximum as you essentially loose the time information. Horses for courses though. CVB's do make nice smooth charts thats for sure but the spikes and sideways formations you get on time charts tell a story (to me) that gets diluted/obscured on CVB's. Bills a smart guy, but somewhat over zealous in his promotion of CVB's (in my opinion).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not maximum as you essentially loose the time information.

 

Thats interesting, I would be interested in hearing how you view the time information as far as this stuff is concerned. I have really been wrestling with this lately as to the utility of time information, I'm just not convinced its really that usefull but might be missing something.

 

Here is a chart from this morning that I had been waiting to see from reading Dr Bretts market delta posts on his blog. The top chart is all trades, the bottom is filtered to only 10 lots +. Its pretty interesting in that the smaller traders drove price up but were basically just providing liquidity for the larger traders. If you were only watching the deltas of all trades it would just look like the ask was getting hit but the larger traders were hitting bids all the way up. After that chart the larger traders just kept hitting bids and drove price down. pretty interesting information.

ym1224morning.thumb.png.f0b726041ca3198e3e2a1d17b0500668.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.