Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

jperl

What is DEMAND/SUPPLY volume?

Recommended Posts

Thanks for the reference.

 

Aren't divergences btwn price and the TickMoneyFlow (standalone ie not considering KGI at all) equivalent to Delta divergences?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zdo said:
Thanks for the reference.

 

Aren't divergences btwn price and the TickMoneyFlow (standalone ie not considering KGI at all) equivalent to Delta divergences?

 

Hi zdo - I dont use tradestation and am not up to speed with TickMoneyFlow, if you could describe what it is then I could compare it with Delta?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  mister ed said:
Hi zdo - I dont use tradestation and am not up to speed with TickMoneyFlow, if you could describe what it is then I could compare it with Delta?

 

MisterEd,

 

Here is the code I am using for TickMoneyFlow

{-------------------------John Hudson's TickMoneyFlow Indicator------------------------}
{This code tries to keep up with how much money is actually entering or 
leaaving an issue in order to measure the buying or selling pressure on prices. 
It uses the snapshot Bid and Ask(CurrentBid, CurrentAsk) fields 
provided by TS to gauge whether a trade was  initiated from the buy or 
the sell side. Although you can never be sure whether a trade hit the tape 
in proper sequence with the Bid/Ask data, in general trades initiated from 
the buy side will go off at the Ask and trades initiated from the sell side 
will go off  at the Bid. In the case of a trade going off either between 
the Bid and Ask or outside the Bid and Ask, this code attempts to assign 
the trade to the most likely side of the market based on whether the 
trade was above or below the trade before it or, if the trade before it 
was at the same price, it determines what the status of the market was 
of the most recent trade in the past that was different from the current
trade's price. This code will run on any time interval.....
from 1 tick bars to daily bars.            }

[LegacyColorValue = true]; 
Inputs: 
Length1(2),
Length2(89),
ShowLinReg(false)
;

Vars:	
IntrabarPersist TickFlag(0),
IntrabarPersist OldPrice(0),
IntrabarPersist TMF(0),
IntrabarPersist NewTickVol(0),
IntrabarPersist MyBarVolume(0)
;

if BarNumber >= 1 then begin
NewTickVol = Ticks - MyBarVolume;
MyBarVolume = MyBarVolume + NewTickVol;
if (C>=CurrentAsk) then begin              
 TMF=TMF + (C * NewTickVol);
 TickFlag = 1;
end;

if (C<=CurrentBid) then begin
 TMF=TMF - (C * NewTickVol);
 TickFlag = 2;
end;

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C>OldPrice then 
 TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);
if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C<OldPrice then 
 TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);
if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 1 then   
 TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);
if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 2 then 
 TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);

OldPrice = C;

if BarStatus(1) = 2 then 
 MyBarVolume = 0;

end;

Plot1(TMF, "TMF");
Plot2(ama(Plot1, Length1), "");


if ShowLinReg then begin
Plot3(LinearRegValue(Plot1,Length1,0));
Plot4(LinearRegValue(Plot1,Length2,0));

end; //if ShowLinReg

 

The key logic is:

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C>OldPrice then

TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C<OldPrice then

TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 1 then

TMF=TMF + (C*NewTickVol);

if (C<CurrentAsk and C>CurrentBid) and C=OldPrice and TickFlag = 2 then

TMF=TMF - (C*NewTickVol);

 

 

Screen shots are attached for some of today’s action in a 102 tick YM chart.

TickMoneyFlow1.jpg shows the first hour and a half of trading. Notice at around 10:10 the directional and angular congruency with KlingerGoslin (oscillator) started to fall apart – rally was snuffed and TMF led way downward.

TickMoneyFlow2.jpg shows angular divergence at about 14:45 (see white up arrow). Again rally was short lived. Over at around 15:02 the KlingerGoslin ‘rallied’, but it was unconfirmed in magnitude by TickMoneyFlow and further sell off ensued.

TickMoneyFlow3.jpg shows strong buying on the KlingerGoslin from 15:16 through 15:20 presaging the late rally but the ‘aggressive’ :confused: action shown on TickMoneyFlow delayed it until ‘aggressives’ capitulated / reversed at around 16:42. At around 15:46, after KlingerGoslin had faltered, the ‘aggressives’ carried the rally into the close…

…maybe :\

 

As I compare the code for TickMoneyFlow with MarketDelta code (which, in TS, is in arrested development now because the Bid Ask data is random snapshots / is inaccurate (ie has a median inaccuracy of about 2.5% compared to T&S prints - but can err much higher)) I see immediately that TickMoneyFlow uses CurrentBid and CurrentAsk while MD uses InsideBid and InsideAsk and upTicks and downTicks

But my same original questions hold:

Is TickMoneyFlow a ‘squigly line’ representation of MarketDelta?

Or is it a different perspective on / dimension of 'volume'? and

How does TickMoneyFlow relate to the original question of this thread?

 

Many thanks.

TickMoneyFlow1.thumb.jpg.5c28bef5437de85eb0bd37456c08a38b.jpg

TickMoneyFlow2.thumb.jpg.df4ac7ac620208c6ced021fe826067ba.jpg

TickMoneyFlow3.thumb.jpg.76e87eee503d72ecec4ef6378f809834.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t know if I am going to be of much help with the question. The TickMoneyFlow looks to be trying to achieve the same thing as Volume at Bid/Ask Delta, but like you say there are many compromises in TMF, with random snapshots and inaccuracy. It appears that in principle, though, it trying to do the same thing.

 

As for TMF being just a “squiggly line†representation of the delta – on the chart I have posted delta is represented as a histogram, if it was represented as a line instead it would be a “squiggly line†too. There are many ways of representing the delta on the chart: can use a moving average of it, can apply an indicator to it, can chart its momentum, can sum it, and so on; it can be represented in its various forms as a histogram or line.

 

The one thing I would say that sets using the volume delta (or the TMF) apart is that it is not a “squiggly line†in respect that it is not derived from the price data, it is not an “indicator†as such. It is distinct data from the price data – sure the two are related, but a squiggly line indicator, like say the MACD or the RSI is derived from price whereas the volume delta, I would argue is not derived from volume, but is volume. Like the standard volume histogram found at the bottom of most standard bar charts is not derived from volume, but is volume. Of course, if you apply say an RSI on the volume delta (which you could do) then that is an indicator. I hope I am not stepping into a semantic minefield here… In short, I would say, as you ask, it is “a different perspective on / dimension of 'volume’â€Â.

 

Hope that answers your questions zdo – and thanks for the charts and ideas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup looks like a similar thing in a different can :) There are a couple of variations on this theme. There are a few different ways of plotting too.

 

I personally don't think it matters too much what flavour you use these are quite 'noisy' tools anyway (lets not even get started on smoothing!!). I use IB which aggregates ticks in fast markets anyway (so is inaccurate inherently). I think that maybe why my delta divergence research didn't come to much. As I say that didn't bother me as its not a direction I particularly want to go in just now.

 

I will carry on saving images of 1 tick charts as that is my particular interest. Trying to get a more visual overview (complete with history) of the tape. Trouble is I keep forgetting to save the images before shutting down!! As I have said (I think) this is to try to improve timing rather than for trade decisions.

 

Cheers.

 

EDIT PS the extra code looks like it is to deal with orders between the bid and ask but I only glanced at it rather than carefully examine the logic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi all,

Hope this is not off topic.

I just came across today's post in Steenbarger's blog who I suppose a lot of people read.

He uses both up/down tick by looking at the NYSE TICK(although he misphrases it in my opinion) and bid/ask volume in market delta.

Here's the link.

 

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Sparrow said:
Hi all,

Hope this is not off topic.

I just came across today's post in Steenbarger's blog who I suppose a lot of people read.

He uses both up/down tick by looking at the NYSE TICK and bid/ask volume in market delta.

Here's the link.

 

Cheers

 

I dont quite follow what Brett was talking about the TICKS telling a different story on the rally based on the FED announcement. That was premarket action with no TICK data available.

 

Here is a pic of premarket yesterday right before the crazy rally. I am currently not trading due to compliance (until end of Dec) but am jotting trade notes until then.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4465&stc=1&d=1197542085

 

When the markets did open up, price could not lift at all and TICKS were hinting weakness throughout the opening range.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4466&stc=1&d=1197542229

 

Also, although I used to use the TICKS as a guide to determine potential trend days... I have found developing market profile to be of more use.

 

During the first 90minutes my intuition was telling me that a potential downtrend was in development. However, this was clearly against the premarket rally/strength and took courage for any trade placements.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4467&stc=1&d=1197542378

 

Complete profile shows a normal variation day.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=4468&stc=1&d=1197542421

 

Key areas will be yesterdays value area.

5aa70e2b92d46_Dec.122007Chart1.jpg.96b70d00b39db66beb6bcf4a684497d7.jpg

5aa70e2b9a0e2_Dec.122007Chart5.thumb.jpg.cb1ea302679a47959e99441e64a1c20c.jpg

5aa70e2ba0f79_Dec.122007EducationalChart1.thumb.jpg.470ed2f46a74f4dd5f0b7d5c067e3206.jpg

5aa70e2ba478b_Dec.122007MPChart.jpg.1f8f2356e43a0a36deb3a86c115c81da.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Quote
I dont quite follow what Brett was talking about the TICKS telling a different story on the rally based on the FED announcement. That was premarket action with no TICK data available.

 

Maybe he was refering to the cumulative tick, which would make sense because he says it was below the 20 day average. I'm only guessing, I haven't looked at the TICK in a long time and didn't watch the market either.

 

Edit: ok found it:

 

The 1 min ticks were below the average of all 1 min ticks over the last 20 days on the FED day. The FOMC announcement was at 2:15pm so enough time for some market action. But I'm just rambling here, I don't have the kind of market insight you have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sparrow and James, thanks for those great posts – really excellent stuff.

 

Sparrow, I don’t think Dr. Brett was referring to the rate cut on Tuesday afternoon, but more to the announcements of co-ordinated actions of central banks to ease the credit crunch, an announcement which saw the US equity markets jump in pre-open on Wednesday morning (Dec 12) (ES Z7 from around 1491-ish to 1515-ish. I think his reference to the NYSE TICK readings were from when the market opened a half-hour later, as James points out the NYSE TICK is available during trading hours on the NYSE, not in pre-market.

 

Just out of interest sake I have included two charts, which show a 5000 Constant Volume candle, with the Bid/Ask volume in the middle pane, and the Bid/Ask volume based on the uptick/downtick interpretation. The first chart shows the pre-market, with the price impact of the announcement of co-ordinated central bank action. I have labelled "A" where the price bars attempt to fall in the face of buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Point B is where selling pressure outweighs buying pressure, but the price still rises.

 

The second chart is the first hour after RTH open. I haven't labelled anything but hopefully the detail is good enough for you to have a look at it.

5.png.91c912eb8e76abd17109e524e58a0871.png

6.png.92052f98748698e3892663e3768f2e28.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been trying the market delta demo out this week. Honestly, I don't see much use for any kind of historical bid/ask analysis after this. The moves are far too quick. It was interesting to see volume dry up and the bigger size come in at the bid when the top of this move this morning was rejected on YM. As far as the delta footprint chart though it seems to be nothing but noise. The bottom column delta is really cool though, i think thats alot more logical way to present the information than a histogram. I think it would be interesting to use a traditional chart instead of the footprint chart and just keep the bottom column and the far right bid/ask tape like breakdown. I don't know any software that can do this though?

marketdelta.png.21d7390b1a3c5bbff837f69a277d447d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  darthtrader said:
I've been trying the market delta demo out this week. Honestly, I don't see much use for any kind of historical bid/ask analysis after this. The moves are far too quick. It was interesting to see volume dry up and the bigger size come in at the bid when the top of this move this morning was rejected on YM. As far as the delta footprint chart though it seems to be nothing but noise. The bottom column delta is really cool though, i think thats alot more logical way to present the information than a histogram. I think it would be interesting to use a traditional chart instead of the footprint chart and just keep the bottom column and the far right bid/ask tape like breakdown. I don't know any software that can do this though?

 

I was thinking of trying it out, but now I won't bother. Tasuki was on about up/down, bid/ask vol on the VSA thread and stated that it would explain VSA and enhance the trader's age but there has not been much follow up there in that regards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  darthtrader said:
I think it would be interesting to use a traditional chart instead of the footprint chart and just keep the bottom column and the far right bid/ask tape like breakdown. I don't know any software that can do this though?

 

There seems to be useful and unique data there....I have tried to extract it and visualise it in a variety of ways. Still no real joy in wringing something out. I did try plotting the delta (difference between V@bid V@ask) as a OHLC bar underneath the price bars. I can't post an illustration as it only works real time...I'll try and post a chart tomorrow if I remember.

 

It is perhaps the 'cleanest' looking representation and if I was to trade divergences (which I don't particularly want to) it would be something to consider.

 

It is also possibly the best representation as a 'proxy' for order flow through the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few days ago I asked the question “What is delta divergence?â€Â

It was a serious question.

To clarify –

Is it simply divergence in directions btwn price and delta (as when TickMoneyFlow is going down and price is going up)? OR

Is it ‘classic’ divergence (like higher price on this swing than last with a lower indicator high than last indicator swing high. etc) ? OR

Is it delta diverging from total volume in balance? OR

Something else? OR

Was it just a totally stoopid ‘them what just don’t get it’ question ?

That’s always a possibility with me :)… and btw

I don’t know where TL came up with an IQ of 59 for me.

This traders IQ is not 59

I taked this test and thay sed my IQ was 64 not 59

that is insulding and you put it up wer evrybodd can sea :\

 

Anyway bump to the question - What is delta divergence?

And thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  BlowFish said:

It is perhaps the 'cleanest' looking representation and if I was to trade divergences (which I don't particularly want to) it would be something to consider.

 

It is also possibly the best representation as a 'proxy' for order flow through the day.

 

I totally agree with the order flow proxy. Your plot sounds pretty interesting. Did you try doing what market delta does with the column delta? All that seems to be is contracts at the ask - contracts at the bid and then just spits out the number. Can't get more simple than that. The interesting thing with that though is its more like tape reading then, probly something you just have to get the feel for in real time through experience.

 

monad, I don't want to knock MD too hard. The footprint chart might be usefull if you put time into seeing patterns, I don't know. Its certainly worth the download and the free 30 days.

 

On the other hand though I really have to question if what happend delta wise X amount of time ago really has any meaning to current price action. If that is the case then any form of charting delta is really a waste of time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am looking forward to BF’s chart too – I know IRT can do something like this but I don’t want my posts to turn into ads!

 

DT, I trialled MD too, and I was really, really impressed with the footprint chart…but I couldn’t figure out how to put it to use. Like you say it is very fast, and very detailed, and I am sure it could be useful, but I couldn’t figure out what to do with it. I really wanted to use it, I still think it has great value, but …

 

The column totals are close to what I have settled on too, placed on your run-of-the-mill bar or candle charts – like I have said before the volume breakup can be presented many different ways and you can see how I am using it on the charts I have put up – buy volume and sell volume together rather than the difference. I wonder if the footprint might be more useful on individual stocks. I don’t have a real-time stock feed so I don’t know.

 

zdo, delta divergence is not a term I use, I think it refers to the situation where the price is moving in one direction while the “delta†(volume at bid minus volume at ask) moves in the opposite direction. While I don’t use the term I certainly look for this situation, I have pointed it out on the two most recent charts I have posted (above).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"..show a 5000 Constant Volume candle, with the Bid/Ask volume in the middle pane, and the Bid/Ask volume based on the uptick/downtick interpretation."

 

 

 

Mister Ed, your charts #34 are perfect!

 

One is clearly seeing when more “buyers” or “sellers” come in - it is showing low and high tide.

 

It would be very interesting to “see” with market profile eyes, at what levels buyers and at what levels sellers mostly came in.

 

So this could indicate their pain levels.

 

Perhaps you can plot your charts again with separated volume profiles (one for bid and one for ask volume), to see this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zdo said:
A few days ago I asked the question “What is delta divergence?â€Â

It was a serious question.

To clarify –

Is it simply divergence in directions btwn price and delta (as when TickMoneyFlow is going down and price is going up)? OR

Is it ‘classic’ divergence (like higher price on this swing than last with a lower indicator high than last indicator swing high. etc) ? OR

Is it delta diverging from total volume in balance? OR

Something else? OR

Was it just a totally stoopid ‘them what just don’t get it’ question ?

That’s always a possibility with me :)… and btw

I don’t know where TL came up with an IQ of 59 for me.

This traders IQ is not 59

I taked this test and thay sed my IQ was 64 not 59

that is insulding and you put it up wer evrybodd can sea :\

 

Anyway bump to the question - What is delta divergence?

And thanks!

 

Depends a bit on how you plot! The chart I am proposing you would see price making a higher high and the delta (cumulative for the day) make a lower high. Trouble with this method of displaying delta it sometimes goes completely in the oposite direction of price.

 

You could do worse than search over at ET for posts from a user called '5pillars' with 'delta' in the text. He has posted many examples of delta divergence followed by zero line cross. He resets the delta each bar though. (I think this may be what you are talking about its simply a graphical representation of the delta number at the bottom of each column).

 

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks BF for the chart and also the reference to 5pillars on ET. I am with you on trading the divergences - not something I really want to do but the method used by 5Pillars seems to be a good one along those lines.

 

Wunderlich - I don't think it is possible to do a volume profile with only the bid or offer volume unfortunately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is something interesting from marketdelta on YM this morning. I hadn't noticed that its also plotting delta by price along with the column delta which is a delta by period. In some sense, especially if your into MP, delta by price probly makes so much more sense than delta by period.

1221ymbreak.png.88bd59f7fc9be5f5c92ffe7fff90e525.png

1221ymtoprejection.png.93f57a477f206135db15978e5e895e2c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  darthtrader said:
its also plotting delta by price along with the column delta which is a delta by period. In some sense, especially if your into MP, delta by price probly makes so much more sense than delta by period.

 

This is probably along the lines that wunderlich was looking for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  mister ed said:
This is probably along the lines that wunderlich was looking for.

 

Yes, but in combination with Constant Volume Bars (CVB: cf "ProfLogic" at ET-Board).

 

With Constant Volume Bars (CVB) = you can clearly see the trend of the market.

 

With MarketDelta Pricelevel-Delta = you can clearly (?) see demand / supply.

 

 

Together plotted one could have maximum market generated information with minimum chart complexity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  wunderlich said:
Yes, but in combination with Constant Volume Bars ...

Together plotted one could have maximum market generated information with minimum chart complexity.

 

Wunderlich, what you want can be basically achieved with the MD program.

The columns you can see on DT's charts from the MD program can be set to a constant volume value, so you would not be looking at CV bars, but at CV columns on a footprint chart - the column is equivalent to a bar anyway, its just presented a little differently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  wunderlich said:
Yes, but in combination with Constant Volume Bars (CVB: cf "ProfLogic" at ET-Board).

 

With Constant Volume Bars (CVB) = you can clearly see the trend of the market.

 

With MarketDelta Pricelevel-Delta = you can clearly (?) see demand / supply.

 

 

Together plotted one could have maximum market generated information with minimum chart complexity.

 

Not maximum as you essentially loose the time information. Horses for courses though. CVB's do make nice smooth charts thats for sure but the spikes and sideways formations you get on time charts tell a story (to me) that gets diluted/obscured on CVB's. Bills a smart guy, but somewhat over zealous in his promotion of CVB's (in my opinion).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  BlowFish said:
Not maximum as you essentially loose the time information.

 

Thats interesting, I would be interested in hearing how you view the time information as far as this stuff is concerned. I have really been wrestling with this lately as to the utility of time information, I'm just not convinced its really that usefull but might be missing something.

 

Here is a chart from this morning that I had been waiting to see from reading Dr Bretts market delta posts on his blog. The top chart is all trades, the bottom is filtered to only 10 lots +. Its pretty interesting in that the smaller traders drove price up but were basically just providing liquidity for the larger traders. If you were only watching the deltas of all trades it would just look like the ask was getting hit but the larger traders were hitting bids all the way up. After that chart the larger traders just kept hitting bids and drove price down. pretty interesting information.

ym1224morning.thumb.png.f0b726041ca3198e3e2a1d17b0500668.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.