Futures Journal Log

[Ronin 10]

9:34am SELL STOP 1472 Filled SOLD

 

Exit Filled 1469.50 -Reason: Gap Above, will bounce big time here

 

Target: 4 ponts 9 no time to type ! ) Canceled

 

Out Flat

[Ronin 10]

Five trades done during day session ESH8 in Chat Room:

 

Total + 17.25 Pts GAIN

 

New Balance: $10,180.25

 

Out Flat

[Ronin 10]

One of many trades done in the Traders Room:

 

(Feel sorry for Carl Futia, his Stop Loss got hit on his Long Pos for a -25.5 Pts Loss )

 

 

This Trade: Long 1471.50 at 10:45am,

 

[walterw 10]

Excelent trading today on the room Ronin ¡¡ if you can explain some of your setups it will be very cool ¡¡ thanks Walter.

[Hlm 10]

Excelent trading today on the room Ronin ¡¡ if you can explain some of your setups it will be very cool ¡¡ thanks Walter.

 

Yes, very nice trades taken today in the room Ronin.

[Ronin 10]

Excelent trading today on the room Ronin ¡¡ if you can explain some of your setups it will be very cool ¡¡ thanks Walter.

 

Will be willing to answer any specific questions in that regard. Price action is second nature to me after so many years so it is better to explain the methodology by answering any question you may have.

[walterw 10]

Ok... so my first question : is the bacbone of your aproach the candles patterns ? or is it the relationship of price and S&R levels or other ?

 

What starts your setup argument ? cheers Walter.

[Ronin 10]

Ok... so my first question : is the bacbone of your aproach the candles patterns ? or is it the relationship of price and S&R levels or other ?

 

What starts your setup argument ? cheers Walter.

 

The aproach is based on the Candle Patterns combined with price action in relation to S/R Levels withing the 5min and 10min Time Frames.

 

The Setup starts by looking at what the reaction is to the S/R Level and then if Long Entry is chosen at a Low Risk level where the Stop Loss would be minimun.Accurate Entry is very important for Low Risk STOP Loss selection.

 

You start with the premise that if your STOP Loss is too far away because of volatitily argument then your Entry is not going to be accurate enough, and if your Entry Long or Short is not accurate then your risk of been Stoped Out is very high which translate into high stress and loss profits and defeating the whole purpose of trading.To give you a good example, look at the Entry Long of the well known market Analyst in parenthesis. His analysis was compelling convincing but his Entry and stop selection was very slopy and inacurate ( Long 1482.50, STOP 1457 , wuao !, resulting in 25.5 Pts Loss)

 

In that particular example in the Chart posted, the Entry was chosen by calculating the Retracement from the Swing High, taking into account the fact that the Key Resistance Level at 1471.75 was penetrated strongly, then it was assumed that it would continue to go UP to test the next most logical Higher Level.Notice how the Low of the Entry Bar tested exactly the 10 MA.

 

The Target is chosen depending on the Bias of the NQ and the Internals. Today it was highly risky to go Long, therefore Targets to Exit had to be chosen wisely because there was more willing Sellers than Buyers.

 

Also the price action after Entry, determines if the Long Open position will be exited at less than Target or break even. Odviously if there is no follow through when Long then, the decision has to be made in a timely manner within strict guidelines and with strict disipline.

[BlowFish 10]

Hi Ronin,

 

Leaving aside bias for now, do you use price action to establish your target? For example "we are going to 1471 to test that previous area of support" type of thing?

 

I noticed also you like things to work within a period of time is that along the lines of "if its not moving towards the target on this 15 minute candle Im going to scratch".

 

Thanks,

[Ronin 10]

Hi Ronin,

 

Leaving aside bias for now, do you use price action to establish your target? For example "we are going to 1471 to test that previous area of support" type of thing?

 

I noticed also you like things to work within a period of time is that along the lines of "if its not moving towards the target on this 15 minute candle Im going to scratch".

 

Thanks,

 

Targets are usually the Swing Pivots or reactions to Key Intraday Levels.

The timing requirements after Entry is a safety factor to minimize Loss and make a decison to Exit or not to exit the trade.

 

In counter-trend trades time is of the essence and 15mins was establish after many years of practicing and looking at the behavior price action of the ES and the SP.Other factors beside time comes into the decision, one of them being the testing or NOT of certain levels for a good judgment of price continuation in the direction of the Trade.

[BlowFish 10]

Thanks - one more quicky if I may. Looking at your chart I am guessing the black horizontal line segments are key levels?

 

The last one at 71.50 I guess is to do with the fib level rather than price action? I see the candle you drew from and it didn't seem that significant except it came back to test that 38.2.

 

Also I wondered why you adjusted the globex level at 88.25 to 88.50 later on?

 

Many thanks.

[Ronin 10]

8:30am - Limit BUY ZBH8 114-15

 

8:35am - FILLED , Long 114-15

 

STOP 114-11 Risk 4 Tics or $125

 

Trade Setup: Pivot was 114-15

RSI ( 5 ) = 42 and rising

 

Target 114-29 Filled +14 Tics GAIN

 

New Balance: $ 10,617.75

 

Out Flat

[Ronin 10]

Thanks - one more quicky if I may. Looking at your chart I am guessing the black horizontal line segments are key levels?

 

The last one at 71.50 I guess is to do with the fib level rather than price action? I see the candle you drew from and it didn't seem that significant except it came back to test that 38.2.

 

Also I wondered why you adjusted the globex level at 88.25 to 88.50 later on?

 

Many thanks.

 

Would have to look at the chart and explain the sequence of price action. Now getting ready to trade the ES and don't have much time.Will look at it after close.

[Ronin 10]

10:45 Long 1458 Limit Filled - Old habits never die, picking the Low bounce

 

Trade Setup: MACD Divergence, 1min SP and Volume Osc at extreme oversold value

 

Target : 1464

[Ronin 10]

10:45 Long 1458 Limit Filled - Old habits never die, picking the Low bounce

 

Trade Setup: MACD Divergence, 1min SP and Volume Osc at extreme oversold value

 

Target : 1464

 

Out early at 1462.25 + 4.25 Pts Gain

 

Out Flat New Bal : $ 10,830.25

[Ronin 10]

Thanks - one more quicky if I may. Looking at your chart I am guessing the black horizontal line segments are key levels?

 

The last one at 71.50 I guess is to do with the fib level rather than price action? I see the candle you drew from and it didn't seem that significant except it came back to test that 38.2.

 

Also I wondered why you adjusted the globex level at 88.25 to 88.50 later on?

 

Many thanks.

 

What is your trading method? need to know your trading background before further discussing my technique.

 

Notice you don't have a Profile or Trader Specs either.

 

By the way, the GLobex Level, has no relevance to my trading technique. Trivial question, lol

 

Waiting for your complete Profile.

[Ronin 10]

I guess I am a terrible cynic but I think the reason anyone does anything is essentially selfish. There is nothing wrong with being selfish imo. Put another way people do things for others because it makes them feel good. Or as has been said they hope to learn something through the exchange (self interest). Or they just want to 'show off' (look at me aren't I clever). I think even when we do things for our children or loved ones it is because when they feel good we feel good (so a selfish action even if for another). Even when we do things out of a sense of responsibility or guilt it is to assuage feelings within ourselves.

 

btw Isn't a speculator simply someone that assumes risk for a potential reward. Not quite sure how that fits in (yet).

 

Personally I always wanted to be hugely succesful at trading (10's or even 100's of millions). Apart from satisfying my Ego I'd really like to make a big difference in the world (money affords that opportunity). The reason? to make me feel good. (Who wouldn't feel good about improving society?) Personally I see no conflict between altruism and selfishness.

 

 

I think I know where you're coming from,

Cheers, Nick

[Ronin 10]

Thanks - one more quicky if I may. Looking at your chart I am guessing the black horizontal line segments are key levels?

 

The last one at 71.50 I guess is to do with the fib level rather than price action? I see the candle you drew from and it didn't seem that significant except it came back to test that 38.2.

 

Also I wondered why you adjusted the globex level at 88.25 to 88.50 later on?

 

Many thanks.

 

You wrote a while back:

 

Here are are a couple of charts of the DAX that I have wanted to post for a while. There is a 3 minute and a 10 minute to give a couple of perspectives of the action.

 

One of the two remaining questions I find I ask myself asking frequently is "was that enough volume to stop the move (rather than just pause it)". The charts show the last two legs of a down move. To me they look very similar.

 

You have a down move with high volume and then a test of that area over two bars (point 1) on diminished volume. The only small clue is at point 2. Apart from that one bar before the final drop I would say the first 'bottom' looked weakest to me!

 

I'd really welcome comments as it seems the differences between the two are really subtle. Of course if we could read supply and demand with crystal clarity on every occasion then we would never have losing trades. I believe this is impossible so it is probably safe to say that it is not possible to read supply and demand with crystal clarity on every occasion!!

 

This is going to be more helpful than explaining my ES chart:

 

Remember that VSA is not everything to go with, you must see what price failed to do or what is expected to do in the next bar within the context. Do not rely on the 3min, it will drive you crazy and more confuse. Stick with the 10mins and use the 5min for accuracy of Entry.Precision and Timing is everything.

 

[Ronin 10]

7:56am Limit BUY 1461 Filled Long 1461

 

Target: Prev Close

 

8:30am Target getting close

 

8:45am Target Filled: +5.5 Pts GAIN

 

New Balance: $ 11,105.25 455% GAIN on Intitial Balance

[Ronin 10]

Go Long Jack !

 

[Ronin 10]

WATCH that 1461 Support

[BlowFish 10]

You wrote a while back:

 

Here are are a couple of charts of the DAX that I have wanted to post for a while. There is a 3 minute and a 10 minute to give a couple of perspectives of the action.

 

 

Thank you for taking the time to find and annotate a chart I had posted! Pure VSAers (which I am not though I follow along hoping to improve) seem to approach slightly differently. I notice a subtle difference in your approach in so far as the price action - S/R levels appear to be key. Seems like you then use volume to help confirm or deny. Personally I also tend to look at volume over a few bars and spot changes of pace. Really price is king, despite needing fuel (volume) to drive it.

 

I think VSAers tend too break individual bars into strong/weak and look for strength to appear (e.g. selling climax). Seems that the focus is less on the context but more on what's in the background.

 

It's all good

 

Cheers.

 

EDIT: I guess whats in the background (strength/weakness) is context really.

[Ronin 10]

11:51am- Limit Buy ZBH8 at 116-25 ( Trade #5, don't have time to post all trades)

 

Filled Long 116-25 Traget 117-00 Filled , + 7 Tics GAIN= $218.75 New Bal: $11,324

 

Observations: Bid / Ask Trading Pad 11:51am

 

5 - 1

1 - 201 ( Clue that Long Trade was going to work)

6 - 25

12 - 1

2 - 4

12 - 22

24 - 29

8 - 25 Goes UP 5 Ticks: Volume +3K

 

Here is the Trade:

 

[Ronin 10]

4pm - Long 1474 ESH8

 

2am - Exit Target Filled: 1483 + 9 Pts GAIN, New Bal: $11,774

 

Trade Setup : NR 9 and Inside Day with CLosed near High

 

RSI(2) = 70 Rising and Vol. Osc: + 3% Rising after cross UP of 20% BUY Signal

[Ronin 10]

9:30am SOLD - ZBH8, 116-02 ( Prev Low ) STOP 116-07( Swing High)

Risk 5 Tics ( $156.25)

 

Exit Target Filled: 115-18 , 16 Tics GAIN = $ 500

 

Trade Setup: Bullish Pice action in Equities and Overbought 60min Stoch.

 

New Balance: $12,274 , 513% GAIN on Initial Starting Bal. :applaud:

 

Not bad for a poor guy like me, :beer: