Gbp/usd

[milliard 10]

Dollar/Swiss is a pretty cool market sentiment guage v/s the $US. Watch it carefully when/if the buck decides to go on a run. If USDCHF fails to kick on (in other words, it merely pops around it's range), the buck won’t run very far.

 

As to why folks trade it? It’s a funding currency torero. Take a look at the int rate chart below. The 2 you mention in your post are favored pairs to run alongside the Swiss for sure. Essentially it’s a safe haven currency & when risk aversion rears it’s head, some roads lead to the Swiss!

 

We’re playing most of these pairs & crosses via the shorter timeframes at present. If you pull up a weekly or daily (& 240m) chart of the Australasian pairs, you’ll see why the shorter term bias.

 

Most of the longer range bets on the popular Pound & Euro instruments are well protected. Traders are merely buying more on dips to their appropriate book percentages. If they’re not, then the aggressive players/fast money crew are definitely playing the Pound via the shorter term (aggressive) models. Hit & run opp's off the hourly s&r lines.

 

Similar crib sheet on the Yen crosses to be honest. There’s fast money to be made so far this quarter, & the s&r lines I’ve shown on a couple of the pairs continue to be honored.

 

The Euro’s near term economics makes a strong argument for continued upside, which in my view has a lot to do with the Dollar Index scraping 75.0/76.0.

 

If the big dogs can base out at their respective supports, then all is good. And there will be decent opportunities for 2 way trade going into years end.

 

Keep your radar primed to maximum intensity

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hi guys,

 

Now that you're all here, I'd like to some nicknames cleared so I can follow your conversation if you don't mind.

 

As for Cable, I don't see any opps this morning or last few days since it's been ranging. Any thoughts?

 

I think you got the main nickname offenders torero. Apart from those two & maybe loonie (CAD) the rest are self explanatory.

 

Agree re; Cable. Art bought it Friday via the fast frames off this support-demand zone & I believe he's still holding some of it, but it's flagging & really needs to bust the lower high level at 2.0600 before I'll get excited.

 

Sure, buy & holding it inside this previous 2.0250-2.0450 demand tunnel isn't going to hurt you, especially if you believe the greenback is in for more pain.

 

There are better opportunities out there for stressless profits than hunting Cable around these tricky levels in my book, but each to their own.

 

As ever, good luck & good trading.

[milliard 10]

I think you'll find their recent buying to the line is on the back of Friday's Daily & 60m hammer (pinocchio?) combination.

 

 

Looks like the wooden puppets got washed out then on yesterday's shift back off resistance........................again! :o

 

Hammers are all good & well, but they still require back up.

[torero 10]

Thanks for the excellent analysis, guys. I haven't touched Cable this morning despite the burst but scalp shorted the loonie (ha ha, funny nickname) since it's was broke the near term support. Other than that, nothing doing.

 

I'm watchin USDCHF dropping and I see the buck is moving quite nicely, thanks for the tip! I'll keep that in mind.

[Anna-Maria 10]

I haven't touched Cable this morning despite the burst but scalp shorted the loonie.

 

Good luck with your CAD punt t.

 

Strong pound today. If you didn't/couldn't spot an in via the Cable, keep the eyes primed on Pound-Yen.

 

That pair carry a positive intraday range around with it, & Andre (milliard) posted up these s&r lines last week: 225.50-228.20.

 

Worth keeping on your watch log as & when it circles these interest zones. Similar on EURJPY.

 

They virtually always offer clear leg in's thru the lines/zones, as well as nailed on exits & pares off the next level up/down such as this mornings action.

 

Obviously depends on your small frame triggers etc, but I'm sure you'll have something in your tool-kit to pick the lock

[Anna-Maria 10]

 

Worth keeping on your watch log as & when it circles these interest zones. Similar on EURJPY.

 

They virtually always offer clear leg in's thru the lines/zones, as well as nailed on exits & pares off the next level up/down such as this mornings action.

 

Obviously depends on your small frame triggers etc, but I'm sure you'll have something in your tool-kit to pick the lock

 

EURJPY zones of interest.

 

Getting to grips with & striking in off the premium entries/exits will really involve unsocial hours for you European fella's, but they do allow appropriate (pullback) entries etc during Frankfurt/London/NY business hours.

[milliard 10]

Getting to grips with & striking in off the premium entries/exits will really involve unsocial hours for you European fella's.

 

Such a harsh life isn't it

 

Things you have to do to earn a crust - tut tut tut.

 

Do what Mika & Bobby do then?! (they still travel Anna?) & a few more independant traders who pump those instruments by all accounts................

 

Re-locate for half the year to Perth or San Diego. Better climate, chilled lifestyle, suitable hrs (for Tokyo-London overlap). Come back to base when your a/c is heavy & lay in the sun!

 

Cracked it, job done.

[torero 10]

Wow, this is dead market or what? Thanksgiving doldrums before the europeans play by themselves when the yankees go on holidays?

 

I only play the London session for now, don't see the need to go into NY just yet, unless I get a job that demands 24/7 duty. But this session provides me plenty of action, thank you.

[milliard 10]

If you're referring to the big 2 European dogs (Cable & Euro) torero, then not dead but merely sitting in the shadows patiently watching.

 

Look at the intraday & closing activity this week on both. Certainly no initial signs of sellers via the price action on my charts.

 

Gotta hand it to Mr Krantz, he snaffled more Cable back there underneath that .0450 buy zone & bought more Euro's on yesterdays breakout so I understand.

 

Classic example of trade the chart (what you see), not the chatter (what you think). It might flip on a dime, but your techs will shout the warning signs.

 

Japs are a wee bit different, they remain a jobbers market still, & are bouncing off clear, defined s&r barriers.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Look at the intraday & closing activity this week on both. Certainly no initial signs of sellers via the price action on my charts.

 

Gotta hand it to Mr Krantz, he snaffled more Cable back there underneath that .0450 buy zone & bought more Euro's on yesterdays breakout so I understand.

 

 

He didn't buy more (EU) y'day Andre, merely traded thru the b/o.

 

We've taken advantage of y'days strong bullish day however to lighten (book more profit) up a little on both of them into this mornings European trade.

 

The savvy players will no doubt use this strength to pare off & hand the risk across to the intradayers. It's maybe worth waiting to see how the week plays out into the Stateside holidays at current levels. Let the stops do their job if conditions get windy.

 

As you quite rightly point out, let the charts speak.

 

Good trading all.

[Anna-Maria 10]

The savvy players will no doubt use this strength to pare off & hand the risk across to the intradayers.

 

 

Choppy, nervy action ahead of & into the MPC minutes. Great example of the elevated risk thus far this a.m

 

This popular strat (Tokyo range play) shaking them out this morning.

 

GBPJPY & EURJPY offering better risk plays via the intradays off this type of activity.

[Anna-Maria 10]

And whilst the Cable snipers were being hustled & scurrying for cover, the Geppy crew had pared off a little profit & were well placed to advantage themselves of any continued momentum via the news, off the upper s&r line & Tokyo low breach.

 

Horses for courses!

[milliard 10]

Failure to spring back inside this lower 225.50 - 224.0 trapdoor now exposes Geppy to the Summer (Aug) weekly low @ 219.30.

 

Before that you got the 16 Aug daily low print of 221.50 for a trampoline bounce

 

Pare off, hold & add for an early Xmas box!!

[Art Krantz 10]

Give your buddy Jimmy Rogers a ring. See if him & Steve Sjuggerud can purchase another skip full of Renminbi. That ought to help your (Yen) cause some?!

 

Might also bring a smile to Hank Paulsons hang dog face too :o

 

Or is he still banging the Dollar's drum?!???!! Tough to know which camp that fool is sitting in these days.

[milliard 10]

Might also bring a smile to Hank Paulsons hang dog face too :o

 

Or is he still banging the Dollar's drum?!???!! Tough to know which camp that fool is sitting in these days.

 

lmao :o :o

 

I hear the Chinese had Led Zepp wired into their headfones when he began jawboning (again) at the G10.

 

God Almighty, does that jerk really think they're (Chinese) gonna jump to our tune when he sees fit? He's a goddamned laughing stock.

 

Anyway, don't get me wound up on all that garbage Senor Krantz.....you & Annie Oakley take care to mind those European positions of yours - the buck is hungry & hunting with sharp teeth......grrrroooooooowwwwl

[Art Krantz 10]

Choppy, nervy action ahead of & into the MPC minutes. Great example of the elevated risk thus far this a.m

 

This popular strat (Tokyo range play) shaking them out this morning.

 

GBPJPY & EURJPY offering better risk plays via the intradays off this type of activity.

 

Yep, I back your comments re; the handover of risk. Worth pointing out though that the scared money will have front run that Asian low b/o on your well flagged chart there.

 

The smart cowboys will have played the 15min, 2 bar pullback to the line & hopped on the rear end of the momentum.

 

But I get where you're coming from. Majority of retailers tend to jump the tape on these breakouts, specially when they're printing at nervy levels.

 

Or do they these day's??

[Anna-Maria 10]

Failure to spring back inside this lower 225.50 - 224.0 trapdoor now exposes Geppy to the Summer (Aug) weekly low @ 219.30.

 

Before that you got the 16 Aug daily low print of 221.50 for a trampoline bounce

 

Pare off, hold & add for an early Xmas box!!

 

1st skittle knocked over. Next one in the sights. That 224.0 hourly candle rejection into today's very thin Tokyo trade maintained the (Yen) bullish stranglehold.

 

Hope Jimmy Choo's got plenty of stock in the store room!!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Short term eyes focusing this monthly 50% line, which kisses a natural price s&r zone.

 

Maintaining higher lows (just) thru the Nov fall-out, but it's breathing heavy underneath this zone & requires a determined kick thru .0750-70 to raise the tempo.

 

3rd quarter longs are ok for the time being, but the shorters won't require too much tempting (neither will I) to step in & whack it if it continues to dither & dawdle at current levels.

[Anna-Maria 10]

This pair has blunted the sharp Tokyo kickback & forced price back inside this developing 2nd tier range tunnel.

 

Certainly hasn't alarmed the Yen Bulls any, & Friday's lows are back in focus. Action across the board has been wishy washy this morning in London trade, with no real meaty triggers, including this pair.

 

A case of managing the shorts & sitting tight until a decent compound opp presents itself, or trailing stops come under pressure.

[torero 10]

GBPUSD charts look very sloppy but GBPJPY and USDJPY very convincing in market S/R areas. I'm still short-biased on both until the lines are broken.

 

The Yen pushed strongly at the Tokyo open last night. Let's see if there's conviction to follow through in London today.

[milliard 10]

Can put it down to mild pockets of profit taking. Still thin conditions/flows out there this week, which will over amplify these moves if they're not tempered.

 

Sub hourly triggers should improve as these levels come under pressure.

 

They certainly have today into early London trade on the (Yen) crosses.

 

Eastern European sweat heads hammering 225.0 (off 224.50) & 161.0 (off 60.50...again!!). Not much else driving it to be honest. Surprised the Japs haven't participated, still........

[Anna-Maria 10]

 

Not much else driving it to be honest. Surprised the Japs haven't participated, still........

 

Ohhhhh they're in there all right....you just can't see em :o :o

 

Too busy massaging 108.0/109.0

 

Hoodies waiting to mug them at 110.50/111.0

[Art Krantz 10]

Can put it down to mild pockets of profit taking. Still thin conditions/flows out there this week, which will over amplify these moves if they're not tempered.

 

Sub hourly triggers should improve as these levels come under pressure.

 

Certainly the case for Euro Bulls yeah. I guess they’re in re-boot mode ahead of next weeks rates gig. German Consumer confidence will have dampened the enthusiasm somewhat.

 

Anna’s chart across on the EUR thread is the one to take the short-term views from re; the lower EU lines. But losing the 1.47 handle could expose her lower zone @ .4580 pretty fast if they (Bulls) lose interest up here. A definite fast frame play from underneath 1.48 back to the harder stops.

 

Beats the hell out of me what they want though? At least they got Trichet & his inflation-growth balance warriors on the case. We got a set of bandits with their collective heads halfway up their ass.

[milliard 10]

Too busy massaging 108.0/109.0

 

Hoodies waiting to mug them at 110.50/111.0

 

:o Did you bother to wear masks & visors in that alley?!

 

Still on the light side (activity) on this push though...still, if they're playin then pointless in sitting there watching them.

 

Kick onto 11.70 before a reality check then!

 

Tho, a curtesy visit toward 109.0 in Tokyo would be polite.

[Art Krantz 10]

I'd still prefer to use $yen as my barometer into Geppy/euyen Andre, sturdier trigger lines, specially via the gamblin timeframes.

 

Her 110.50 puts the brakes on:

 

163.50 - hourly overhead res, decent marker to next level @ 165.0

228.0 exposes 231.30 (50% of month H-L).

 

Stops hit hard thru 228.20 +

See how heavy they're layered to that 50% defense.