Trading The IBD 100 -- Oct 2007

[Dogpile 10]

The IBD 100 list is printed every Saturday. IBD highlights the ones with a black border that are near 'breakout points' -- ones that have some kind of base structure and could launch up out of that. This is a valid concept which highlights stocks that have been in a congestion zone and now ready for a potential directional move.

 

Thought I would follow the 'highlighted' stocks in the list as an 'idea list' to play. I am not a guy who buys breakouts --- I like to buy high relative strength stocks after 'shakeouts' -- not piling into a breakout. This is a lower risk strategy, IMO. This also means buying the first sign of momentum after a shakeout. The IBD 100 is filled with short-term traps -- but the list has many huge winners on it. Thus, I wanted to try a thread to track some of these 'highlighted stocks'. I trade futures and other stocks too so this is not my entire focus so I wanted to keep the list manageable.

 

Filter is to only trade liquid stocks. I am requiring roughly 1 million shares trade per day -- less is ok if it is an especially pretty pattern.

 

Here is the focus list of names for this week:

 

AAPL 167.90

NVDA 36.20

SLB 109.80

AMZN 92.83

WFR 63.08

FMCN 58.00

SII 73.81

GME 57.50

CRNT 16.38

PCP 144.87

ISRG 249.30

 

Of these, 3 stand out to me.

FMCN

NVDA

GME

 

I would not buy on the IBD 'buy point' fwiw. Just noting the overall pattern of these 3 names looks healthy.

[Reaver 10]

I don't know why but I always thought IBD's 100 list was in regards to CANSLIM analysis.

 

Thanks for the info Dog.

[thrunner 10]

Of these, 3 stand out to me.

FMCN

NVDA

GME

Looks like FMCN > GME > NVDA in continuation. NVDA actually had a bearish looking divergence in late Sept. Some may even have NVDA as a sell. NVDA has had a great run since April 07, nearly 100% gain.

[TinGull 10]

Out of the 3 you are looking at dogpile...GME is the one that stands out to me for immediate results.

 

[Reaver 10]

I like GME to the long side either at market or look for breakout of appx $59.82.

 

All signs point to a long play, for me at least. YMMV.

 

 

Fundamentals wise...well I just got finished playing Bioshock for my 360.....and I am gonna be buying myself plenty of games soon enough...LOL

[Dogpile 10]

I actually kind of like the NVDA chart better.

 

GME looks like it just completed an upswing and now might get choppy. The GME chart first showed a pullback from 9/27 - 10/1 off the high -- then it tested up which was a 'false rally' for the pullback-buyers. It shook those traders out with a big red bar -- and then it was ready to swing up. This is a classic 'false rally pullback' set-up. But that trade has now played out on that move from $55 to ~$59.

 

NVDA is in a multi-day down move already right here and did its big red bar on Thursday which likely shook out many of the weak-hands. Thus, the correction might be further along than it is for GME. This suggests more room for continuation on the upside should an entry present itself.

 

The FMCN chart is pretty on a higher-level due to the large base and continuation gap -- but the NVDA chart looks like the cleanest in the very short-term, IMO.

[TinGull 10]

Up 1.63 at this moment in time.

 

[Dogpile 10]

Entered NVDA long:

 

Intraday upside momentum either begins daily swing up or else stop out on intraday weakness. Initial risk is minus -55 cents.

 

Semiconductor stocks are strong today.

[Dogpile 10]

well, scratched the NVDA long as market is just too weak. NVDA made new high but net breadth is now -1600 and just fighting the current too much to stay with it.

[Dogpile 10]

List For Week Beginning Monday Oct 29, 2007

 

FTK 53.00

RIMM 121.00

NOV 73.35

GRMN 118.75

CMED 46.09

FCX 117.50

LIFC 43.98

GME 58.69

CTRP 53.10

 

--------------

 

CTRP looks kind of interesting to me. The rest look dangerous in terms of getting chopped up as they all seem to have had short-term upswings. The upswings may continue but it looks tricky to me to enter after an upswing is already established.

[brownsfan019 17]

Just curious dog - are these picks printed on the free portion of the site or the pay for use portion? I'm trying to construct a way to screen for stocks and IBD may be a good place to start. What are your thoughts on the IBD? Been awhile since I picked one up.

[Dogpile 10]

hi browns,

 

I think we are in a momentum-type of market these days --- can see growth stocks (tech/medical) strongly outperforming value stocks (primarily financials and assorted consumer stocks). Thus, this is good time to focus on IBD type of momo-names.

 

IBD has nice list of ideas. The Saturday edition of IBD prints the IBD 100 and within that they put bold-faced boxes around the names with some kind of base-structure. I have listed those here. I don't like playing base breakouts unless it is accompanied by a momentum push up and a pullback.

 

I think IBD is a useful paper. but I don't even subscribe anymore. I pick it up once in a while during the week and usually get the Saturday edition to check out the IBD 100.