Reaver's Incursion

[walterw 10]

For more info on that trade you can check this thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/the-false-break-trade-1994.html it is on intraday, but it can perfectly be applied to daily as well... cheer The Chimp.

[TinGull 10]

Just to box in what Walter said....

 

 

Good phase 3 forming on it.

[Reaver 10]

Awesome info! Thanks for the comments Tin and Walter. Really helps open my eyes to other possibilities...which is one of the main purposes of this thread in the first place. Good stuff....much appreciated.

[Reaver 10]

Looks like price broke through the lower bracket I was waiting for....I will re-evaluate my viewpoint tonight. Good learning experience for me....

 

 

Walter and Tin may have just picked a top!

 

This is why I need to be able to be at home...so I can take advantage and stay on top of smaller moves like this, etc instead of having to place trade positions mostly at the end of the day...not being able to watch intently enough can really limit agility and trading results....

 

But hey if I can still make it being handicapped in my trading due to my day job...then once I am able to pay even more attention...that in theory will help...but then again, maybe my having this type of distance from the market is what helps...

 

aahhh, one day soon...

[TinGull 10]

I dont have access to futures data anymore, so I don't know what price did. If you want to place a short, watch for the next bear flag to form and short a lower high in the flag channel

[Reaver 10]

Good point Tin...

 

By the way, during the day I hit up futuresource.com to get prices for free....it's delayed but good to keep an eye on....

[chainsawtrader 10]

Welcome to the forum saw.

 

While you seem to really like what Reaver has presented here, feel free to do the same. As you'll see in your time here, TL is a community of giving and receiving. You should start a thread and introduce yourself to the forum and tell us about your trading. What are you hoping to gain and provide the forum?

 

Once again, welcome to our little forum my friend.

 

:cheers:

I'm not a trader yet. I'm in graduate school working on a PhD. in finance. Some of the theories mentioned in this forum may be helpful in my studies and research. Be assured if I use any of the ideas here in my dissertation, credit will be given to the author accordingly.

[Reaver 10]

So far no trades catch my eye....still watching wheat, but now, looks like a false breakout to the downside....reversion to the 5 day balance on decreasing volume...volatility just shit the bed too. Oh well, will keep an eye open and see what happens......

[walterw 10]

Hi Reaver, dont want to hijack your thread here... wanted to share with you a false break I just traded

 

 

used some new vma stuff plus cci...

 

now remember it is a risky setup, but when it works is worth the ride... cheers Walter.

[Reaver 10]

Walter, thanks man good example of what we were talking about a couple threads back. That's actually what I am still looking for out of wheat, as we discussed earlier. Thanks for the post bud.

 

P.S. You're not hijacking my thread when you post stuff! Keep it coming, it is good for me to see from different perspectives. Have a good one Chimp.

[walterw 10]

Glad to hear that Reaver... sometimes I dont know if I am puting my nose where I shouldnt...

 

here is a false break I just scalped, it was good for 5 pips..

 

 

 

now you have to understand that on momentum conditions this is too risky thing to do... if you sense market is weak... (cycle conditions) then this false breaks work pretty good... cheers Walter.

[TinGull 10]

Walter...that failed breakdown/breakout I wouldn't classify as high risk...I think it's a real low risk setup. You've got a nice area for a stop placement and when people see a failed pattern, those who got short are gonna have to cover and fuel a rally (in that particular trade's case). That's one of my most favorite setups to play.

[walterw 10]

Walter...that failed breakdown/breakout I wouldn't classify as high risk...I think it's a real low risk setup. You've got a nice area for a stop placement and when people see a failed pattern, those who got short are gonna have to cover and fuel a rally (in that particular trade's case). That's one of my most favorite setups to play.

 

 

So we Bake Bread and trade False breaks ¡¡ arent you a chimp man ?

[Reaver 10]

Okay, looks like wheat dropped to 8184, well below the breakout point...one more major support level at about 8131 (approximate, nothing here is an exact science), and if that is breached....looks like a long drop may come around....but I am not in the business of predicting the future lol...I am just curious to see how a CT trade would have worked....wheat has tested the bracket two days in a row and made a solid break through support...so we'll see.

 

[TinGull 10]

So we Bake Bread and trade False breaks ¡¡ arent you a chimp man ?

 

You do bring up a good point.........

[TinGull 10]

Yea, I don't see anything until 7.30-7.50 area for any type of support if that gets broken.

[Reaver 10]

Yeah I agree....that would be quite a nice move...if the previous balance area limit gets broken...it may be a nice trade after all..

 

Like Stan Kroll said: they slide faster than they glide....so we'll see....

[Reaver 10]

Glad to hear that Reaver... sometimes I dont know if I am puting my nose where I shouldnt...

 

No worries there Walter your comments are always welcome on my threads.

[Reaver 10]

So we Bake Bread and trade False breaks ¡¡ arent you a chimp man ?

 

ha ha! You two kill me.

[Reaver 10]

Well so far looks like the breakout to the downside didn't follow through...hit support at appx 8130 and bounced...Will take a look at all available info once I get my data squared away.

[Reaver 10]

Price closed at 8284...below the downside breakout point...market is out of balance. Volatility increased significantly.....Nothing really new so far...

[walterw 10]

Price closed at 8284...below the downside breakout point...market is out of balance. Volatility increased significantly.....Nothing really new so far...

 

 

Reaver, can you eventually post a chart of that, got me curious... jejeje... cheers Walter.

[Reaver 10]

ha ha sure no problem..I guess that would help out!

[Reaver 10]

 

Price tested the 5 day bracket on Monday, but closed within the bracket range...yesterday the price broke out, and bounced off September's bracket limit low......volatility greatly increased, but no significant change in volume....the longer term MMA seems like it may be getting ready to roll over. hmmm

 

If price breaks through this last support..it could be a long drop.

[Reaver 10]

Last quote I received said wheat was at 8284, still not breaking through support....