Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Dogpile

Taylor Trading Technique

Recommended Posts

WHY?/Richbois

 

On a BUY day, a short can be taken on HIGH made FIRST. and unlike a sale day, we do not have to wait for a sell objective.

 

This is especially pertinent if a HIGH was made LAST on SS day, however what if a LOW was made LAST on SS day.?

 

Weak closings forecast failures to penetrate ‘top side’ on the rallies after declines, while strong closings forecast failures to penetrate ‘down side’ on the declines after rallies. p47

 

"A weak closing on a Short Sale Day, may indicate a lower opening on the Buying Day—and we get set to buy on the low made FIRST—" p43

 

"Now, we go back to the close of the Short Sale Day and we find that it was a ‘flat’ closing, then from this indication we expect a lower opening on the Buying Day and so far this would cause the low to be made FIRST and is a stronger indication when made early in the session that a rally would start from this low and hold the gains for a strong closing, which in turn indicates an up opening and a penetration of the Selling Day Objective—the Buy Day High." p 28

 

"When the low and close are about the same on a Short Sale Day, we usually get our (BU) Buy Under, the price goes lower, next day" p71

 

When BU's are made tape reading skills must be especially sharp. Do not take long position on a BU UNTIL support has come in per the tape.

 

Qutoes from: The Tayor Trading Technique pdf version

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today 2/17/09 is obviousley a BV made on a sell day or the second day of the cycle. This presents a long opportunity in this slide down, however, one must not attempt to capture much as the market is very weak. Just a few quick points and out. Any decent rally back towards 2/16's low is the exit point. Again market is weak. We could perhaps see an afternoon rally of sorts..then again we might not so wisdom indicates exiting on any profit one can grab on any rally back to yesterdays low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks WHY?

o.k , the above scenario is buying after BV on a sell day.- only longs allowed on a Sell Day as you have explained before.

 

1. Lets say today 2/17 is a BUY day. That makes 2/16 a SS day which closed on the Low.

 

All of the premarket action today 2/17 was under 2/16 low (attached 5min and 15min both for Buy Day scenario), would it be o.k to go short on the open as shown, as it would be a HIGH made FIRST on a BUY day which can be shorted

 

Then to cover and go long as both short and long are allowed on a BUY day.

 

2. OTOH if it was SS day, after a weak close on 2/16 (sell day), would it then be o.k to short the HIGH made FIRST on a SS day, the only trade for the day as only shorts are taken on a SS day.

5aa70eb253275_eminishortonHighmadeFirst.png.24d0411b11d9754874fcf450a30cf3b1.png

5aa70eb256ec2_esminiwithpremarketaction.png.2df9cf7c83d5c6be4817a6a02f4bc973.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks WHY?

o.k , the above scenario is buying after BV on a sell day.- only longs allowed on a Sell Day as you have explained before.

 

1. Lets say today 2/17 is a BUY day. That makes 2/16 a SS day which closed on the Low.

 

All of the premarket action today 2/17 was under 2/16 low (attached 5min and 15min both for Buy Day scenario), would it be o.k to go short on the open as shown, as it would be a HIGH made FIRST on a BUY day which can be shorted

 

Then to cover and go long as both short and long are allowed on a BUY day.

 

2. OTOH if it was SS day, after a weak close on 2/16 (sell day), would it then be o.k to short the HIGH made FIRST on a SS day, the only trade for the day as only shorts are taken on a SS day.

 

Generally speaking pre market or pre day session opening should be used for mostly for indicating what the day session will open at. Therefore, it is best not to trade in the premarket. I wouldn't say never do it but it is best to see what the market does at the open of the regular trading session.

 

Would it be ok to short 2/17 if it was a buy day on a buy day made first? The problem is you don't know in this case IF it is the high made first or the low made first. In a weak market like this only allowing some time to go by will one be able to determine which was made...the low or the high. Taylor says a short sale on high made first on a buy day is generally a "weak" short sell. He also says NEVER short on a buying day when the low is made first by "opening down" p 42 as there isnt enough certainty to make a profit because of the spread not being enough. On page 43 he says a high made first on a down opening on a buying day would be of no interest to us for short selling as this could cause the low to be made last.

 

Page 28 pdf version of the book says: "Now, we go back to the close of the Short Sale Day and we find that it was a 'flat' closing, then from this indication we expect a lower open on the Buying Day and so far this would cause the low to be made first and is a stronger indication when made early in the session that a rally would start from this low and hold the gains for a strong closing".

 

Remember, the decline is from the SS day high to the buy day low except on those occasions where the decline continues on the sell day causing a BV. With this in mind one could see that if today were a buy day (2/17) that it opened weak and the slide would be down.

 

Taylor says buying low points made first on a buy day are usually profitable except in declines where a steep downtrend has begun.

 

In summary IF 2-17 were a buy day and a down opening I would leave the short side alone and wait until the last possible time before noon to see IF any low made holds or is supported and then look at going long. However IF by the end of the day it looks like it will close weak then the best thing for me to do would be to sell it out any long I may have taken with a small gain or loss as NO rally was forthcoming from the low made first on the buy day. On a buy day of one goes long and the low closes flat then one is on the wrong side of the trend. Get out.

 

Of course this is different IF it is in an uptrend. Failures to penetrate previous days high early in the session in an uptrend can possibly be a shorting opportunity. Remember, the Taylor game was to catch the larger trend of the day. And of course it isnt 100% but his rules protected one when the system was wrong about the price action.

Edited by WHY?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One must always remember that you are playing for the odds in your favor. Taylor had ideal setups and there are less than ideal setups. Ideal setups put the odds in your favor. Less than ideal are more risky but many times still tradeable. Much depends on how much risk one is willing to take. In the end it is discretionary. The system gives you a framework for trading. Exact entry and exits and the decision to make a play or not are purely discretionary.

 

Thus on shorting a a buy day high made first AFTER it trades close to or penetrates the high of the previous day (the SS day) puts the odds in your favor. Shorting a high made first on a down opening on a buy day that does not penetrate the high of the previous session or come close to penetrating it is LESS than ideal and more risky. The trend can turn fast back up. IF I traded such a senario (and I probably would not but would pass) it would be with eyes glued to the screen and I would probably be out of the postion with a quick but smaller profit and try to not plan on capturing any larger move as the odds are against me.

 

On any given day there is a main trend and many cross currents. Sometimes a couple of main trends. Trying to short or go long on cross currents is what Taylor tried to avoid. Not that it can't be done but his game was to try a catch a goodly portion of the main trend of the day. That was it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at a chart of todays price action from the perspective of it being a buy day Taylor would have probably skipped any shorting and went long around 11:20 or so and out that afternoon with a 4 or 5 point gain as the rally back was weak.

 

From the perspective of it being a sell day today 2/17 (2nd day of the cycle), the entry and exits would have been about the same time as the above. That is just how price action panned out today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.... by a one day shift of my original count.... with down swing trend

....feb 10 was sell.... with SMBS cycle.... with today tuesday as buy day .... and tomorrow wednesday as next sell day....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great insights WHY? on BUY day nuances under ideal and non-ideal conditions.

 

Earlier Hakuna inquired about a statement from Taylor. I am somewhat curious, it appears a typo error, however you know more about this stuff than most.

 

"On page 72 in the "Pertinent Points" Chapter the following is stated:

 

"There seems to be about two swings a week, one Upward and one Downward. In the Bull movement, the one downward will be longer and is the swing that causes the failures to penetrate the Selling Objectives and the cause of Buying Day Low Violations."

 

Should'nt it be Bear movement instead of Bull movement?

 

From what you have posted earlier in post 451, It sure looks like a typo error.

 

Weak closings forecast failures to penetrate ‘top side’ on the rallies after declines, while strong closings forecast failures to penetrate ‘down side’ on the declines after rallies. p47

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By the count you guys are taking today 2/18 it would be a SS day. The Taylor play today would have been the shorting shortly after 11 a.m. and covering this afternoon.

 

By my count today 2-18 was a buy day and the Taylor play would have been going long around 10.a.m and exiting around 11 a.m.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
By the count you guys are taking today 2/18 it would be a SS day. The Taylor play today would have been the shorting shortly after 11 a.m. and covering this afternoon.

 

By my count today 2-18 was a buy day and the Taylor play would have been going long around 10.a.m and exiting around 11 a.m.

 

In your post of 256, you mentioned:

 

"When in a bear market look to short on high made first on buy days and on Shortsell days. Look for buying day violations to happen more often for taking QUICK long positions but do not stay in them long"

 

1. So a short could also have been taken at the open on 2/18, on a SS day. The shorting opportunity after 11a.m would be a retest of that opening high and also premarket high of 795 level.

 

2. For Buy Day, a short was also viable on the open followed by a long as per you post of 256.

 

2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
By the count you guys are taking today 2/18 it would be a SS day. The Taylor play today would have been the shorting shortly after 11 a.m. and covering this afternoon.

 

By my count today 2-18 was a buy day and the Taylor play would have been going long around 10.a.m and exiting around 11 a.m.

 

In your post of 256, you mentioned:

 

"When in a bear market look to short on high made first on buy days and on Shortsell days. Look for buying day violations to happen more often for taking QUICK long positions but do not stay in them long"

 

1. So a short could also have been taken at the open on 2/18, on a SS day. The shorting opportunity after 11a.m would be a retest of that opening high and also premarket high of 795 level.

 

2. For Buy Day, a short was also viable on the open followed by a long as per you post of 256.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

....if swing trend shifts back to an up trend here....which i think it could....

.... then i keep my original count...... with today thursday as middle day .... and friday as sell day .... BMSB cycle

.... by a one day shift of my original count.... with down swing trend

....feb 10 was sell.... with SMBS cycle.... with today tuesday as buy day .... and tomorrow wednesday as next sell day....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In your post of 256, you mentioned:

 

"When in a bear market look to short on high made first on buy days and on Shortsell days. Look for buying day violations to happen more often for taking QUICK long positions but do not stay in them long"

 

1. So a short could also have been taken at the open on 2/18, on a SS day. The shorting opportunity after 11a.m would be a retest of that opening high and also premarket high of 795 level.

 

2. For Buy Day, a short was also viable on the open followed by a long as per you post of 256.

 

I need to look at a chart to respond to what you are saying here. I dont trade the emini. I am just posting stuff here for the benefit of those here who trade it since this is the instrument posters here seem interested in. Therefore, I don't have any good charting software for futures...etc as I trade stocks and don't need it. Can you post a 5 min chart for the emini between 9:30 a.m Eastern time and 11:30 a.m? IF I were trading the emini per taylor I would be interested in the price action from 9:30 a.m. onward. If you can post a chart that would help. thanks

Edited by WHY?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WHY?

 

Here is the 5min chart:

 

As you can see the market gapped up on the open, so being a SS day, guess it would be o.k to short. The next opportunity came after 12 when it tested the opening High.

 

However if it was BUY day then the long was around 10a.m as you pointed out.

5aa70eb33c041_eminifor18thFeb.png.d4aa819b849ee443f4b92886c993ff94.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Monad. I ask because when I look at those free chart sites on the net they show 9:30 near the low of that first drop. Again I have not traded the emini for years so i have no reliable charting system.

 

If your chart is correct then yes shorting a buy day or shorting a SS day was there at the open however the charts I have access to seem to differ from your chart. Also, going long was there later in the session per my buy day count. That long could have been sold same day as I mentioned or held overnight and sold today per taylors rules. However, most of you guys seem to be strict daytraders trying to adapt taylor to multiple entry/exits during the day so you probably wouldn't have held overnight. For Taylor daytrading could be held overnight. I suppose he was technically wrong on that description. About the discrepancies in the free net charts and your chart well i don't know why they differ but they seem to differ. On your chart you are showing the open at 9:30 a.m. ET correct?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes WHY? 9.30EST.

 

Your comments "By the count you guys are taking today 2/18 it would be a SS day. The Taylor play today would have been the shorting shortly after 11 a.m. and covering this afternoon.

 

By my count today 2-18 was a buy day and the Taylor play would have been going long around 10.a.m and exiting around 11 a.m."

 

I presume the times you mentioned are chicago time CST. but the chart should be the same ie. 18th Feb, Wednesday.

Edited by monad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today is a Buy day based on Richard's TTT excel spreadsheet.

Since I also had a potential wave count showing end of a big wave 3 end I was able to buy near the first TTT target around 744.3.

5aa70eb400cff_ES03-0924_02_2009(15Min)MTP.thumb.gif.13040821302170430c26eb7814ae2368.gif

5aa70eb40813f_ES03-0924-02-2009(1min)MTP.gif.9e38cadd2f8fbb3e27749215444dc371.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • META stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 507.48, 557.84 at https://stockconsultant.com/?META
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.