Taylor Trading Technique

[elovemer 10]

i have today wednesday as a buy day....

.... which would make thursday a mid.... and friday a sell

... with monday a buy

..... i am sticking to this cycle until this bull move peters out....

 

... as far as my cycle.... the lower cycle ends thursday morning....

.... if it went down and made an early low.... then you might expect a pop up toward the upper cycle ending....

.... but as we are now.... it looks incapable of making an extreme low by thursday morning as it would have to really crash hard to make a low on 30 min frame....

.... sorry if i can't be of more help to you

..... i am trying to offer what i can in hope that others may do so as well and i can learn something from them :0)

What is TVGR

o.k what is the possible scenario for today, Wednesday 17th Dec 2008,

It would be useful to post prior to todays open.

[Eiger 10]

Hi Eiger

 

I originally started my TTT E-books based on Taylor's 10 day principle. Later while I was doing statistics on everything, I discovered that we get Positive 3 Day Cycles even in this bear markets. Since then when I start a new TTT E-book for a different instrument, I use that criteria to pick which cycle day was the 1st day.

 

A Positive 3 Day rally is calculated from the Buy day low to the SS day high.

 

However to answer your question, once the cycle is set I never change it. I tried that a few times but when even I did it proved to be incorrect for days even weeks. I started with data from Jan 1, 2008 on the US index futures, and the cycle is still correct as of today. It still produces over 85% positive 3 day rallies.

 

The only thing I am experimenting with at the moment is using a moving average for my statistics due to the high volatility of late. It seems to help for some markets more then others.

 

I hope that helped

 

PS These Positive 3 Day Rallies demonstrates the genius of Taylor and how these markets are manipulated.

 

Thank you very much!

 

I thought that might be the case. Taylor, of course, is difficult to read (but not impossible) and I couldn't see anything about resetting the cycle. Angell and Raschke do talk about extending it to 4-5 days, but that has been more confusing than helpful, at least to me. So your insight has high value to me - thanks again

 

Since the cycle doesn't change, then that makes the rules much more important than the names of BD, SD, SSD. In other words, the BD, SD, SSD are just what Taylor named them to keep track of where he was in the cycle. We could call them Day 1, 2, & 3. The names BD, SD, SSD are pretty unimportant. It's the rules for each or the days in the cycle that are the key?

 

Is this the way to really comprehend Taylor?

 

Eiger

[VolumeJedi 10]

Eiger, I thought Angell uses 3 days and calls it LSS.

[richbois 10]

Thank you very much!

 

I thought that might be the case. Taylor, of course, is difficult to read (but not impossible) and I couldn't see anything about resetting the cycle. Angell and Raschke do talk about extending it to 4-5 days, but that has been more confusing than helpful, at least to me. So your insight has high value to me - thanks again

 

Since the cycle doesn't change, then that makes the rules much more important than the names of BD, SD, SSD. In other words, the BD, SD, SSD are just what Taylor named them to keep track of where he was in the cycle. We could call them Day 1, 2, & 3. The names BD, SD, SSD are pretty unimportant. It's the rules for each or the days in the cycle that are the key?

 

Is this the way to really comprehend Taylor?

 

Eiger

 

That is the way I see it also. Names are names I just use that same names as Taylor but I agree that it would be easier with day 1 -2 - 3 for most people to understand.

 

I also agree that Angell and Raschke have a different take on TTT. Angell even got in trouble with LSS as he claimed he traded it in live acct but never did. Well that is if I understand the lawsuit correctly.

 

Anyway I prefer to stick to Taylor and I just added statistics to it which helps in today's markets.

[Eiger 10]

VJ - He does stick with the 3-day cycle, that's true. He "re-phases" the cycle, though, which I always thought either must extend the current cycle somehow, or left orphans floating around out there:

 

"The rephasing attempts to relocate the three-day cycle when highs and lows don't occur as expected. Very often, a simple technique to find the 'correct' cycle is to push it ahead one day ... by pushing the cycle ahead one day, you can often find the pattern you are looking for ... Once you find the correct pattern, you can expect two or three cycles of winning trades ... (from Chapter 13 the LSS 3-day Cycle Method, G. Angell, Taylor Trading Technique, p. 112.

[HAKUNA 10]

richbois,

Can you take from Monday of this week and go through the cycle you talk about,

What day is today, in that 10day cycle and depending on that what can be expected(know we always deal in probabiities) price action wise for thursday and friday.

 

Am still trying to get my head around this 3day and 10day cycles:)

[richbois 10]

richbois,

Can you take from Monday of this week and go through the cycle you talk about,

What day is today, in that 10day cycle and depending on that what can be expected(know we always deal in probabiities) price action wise for thursday and friday.

 

Am still trying to get my head around this 3day and 10day cycles:)

 

There is no 10 day cycle. The 10 days that Taylor talks about is to start your book. You pick the day with the lowest low during those 10 days and call that your Buy day, then name your other days accordingly. So it will depend when you start your book you could end up with a different cycle then me. That is the most confusing part of Taylor theory, I started my ES book last January and at that time the major low was on Jan 22,2008 and I am still using that as my base. Like I said earlier I then made statistics based on Positive 3 Day Cycle and when I try to change the 1st day of my data to a different day I get lower percentage. That is why I keep my cycles the way they are. If you started a new book today you could use November 21st low as your Buy day which was a Sell day for me.

 

Either way if you trade the logic properly it will be accurate at a high %% of return. That is why some others like Angell re-cycle their days but that only confuses things. When a Day fails to do what it is suppose to do it usualy corrects it self in the next day or two, therefore it is simpler to stick with the original cycle.

 

This week Monday was a SS day. During the overnight session ES rallied to the my projected high and then dropped all day, normal for a SS day High made 1st. It started a rally just before the closed.

 

Tuesday was Buy day, the low was made first on the 24 hour session and we ended up with a gap up for the day session. TVGR took effect and we rallied all day.

 

Today is the Sell day. Sell days have been notorious for being the confusing day. Having reached the average target for a Sell day at the close yesterday, the markets declined overnight and gapped down at the open. TVGR took effect on ES but TF closed the gap at the start. It took half the day to finally close the gap but when ES tried to penetrate the previous day high it ran out of steam and pulled back. TF managed to penetrate and stopped climbing at the projected highs that were sent in the report last night. see picture

 

I hope that helps

[Eiger 10]

That is the way I see it also. Names are names I just use that same names as Taylor but I agree that it would be easier with day 1 -2 - 3 for most people to understand...

 

 

Hi Rich,

 

Thanks for the clarity on this. It really parts the veils on Taylor. It is now making a whole lot more sense to me. He wrote in a bit of a code, but once you have this clarity, it does open up. Thanks again!

 

Eiger

[HAKUNA 10]

This week Monday was a SS day. During the overnight session ES rallied to the my projected high and then dropped all day, normal for a SS day High made 1st. It started a rally just before the closed.

 

Tuesday was Buy day, the low was made first on the 24 hour session and we ended up with a gap up for the day session. TVGR took effect and we rallied all day.

 

Today is the Sell day. Sell days have been notorious for being the confusing day.

I hope that helps

 

Greatly appreciate your explanation,

If monday 15th Dec was a SS day as per your cycles, can I start off Friday 12th as being the Buy day and start the cycle from there.

If wed(yesterday) was a sell day, today would be expected to be short sale day I presume.

[richbois 10]

Greatly appreciate your explanation,

If monday 15th Dec was a SS day as per your cycles, can I start off Friday 12th as being the Buy day and start the cycle from there.

If wed(yesterday) was a sell day, today would be expected to be short sale day I presume.

 

That is correct today is SS day however last friday was a sell day not a buy day

 

here is the list for this month for ES the Blue means made Last and Pink is made 1st

 

This cycle is good for the US Index Futures only as other instruments may be on different cycles.

[HAKUNA 10]

Once agains thanks a bunch richbois, if it pans out today, tomorrow ideally should be a buy day, although quadruple witching could throw it out of sync.

But will follow that through Monday, keeping in mind the holiday season, the bullish bias is there.

 

BTW what is TF.

[elovemer 10]

.... this part.... i like....

.....good stuff....

.... this thread is going now... this is great.....

 

...also aside from the confusion of Taylor's method.... the rules he lays out.... are useful even without the cycle method....

.... so even if your cycle is off.... you are protected by using his rules to the tee.....

 

-----------------------

Either way if you trade the logic properly it will be accurate at a high %% of return.

That is why some others like Angell re-cycle their days but that only confuses things.

 

When a Day fails to do what it is suppose to do it usualy corrects it self in the next day or two, therefore it is simpler to stick with the original cycle.

Edited December 18, 2008 by elovemer

[richbois 10]

Once agains thanks a bunch richbois, if it pans out today, tomorrow ideally should be a buy day, although quadruple witching could throw it out of sync.

But will follow that through Monday, keeping in mind the holiday season, the bullish bias is there.

 

BTW what is TF.

 

TF is the futures contract for the Russell index

[HAKUNA 10]

richbois,

you will have to excuse my questions, I am just trying to gain clarity.

 

From your table 11th Thursday (last week) was a Buying day, however the market opened higher and closed much lower.

 

Then Friday 12th is a sell day but the prices opened lower and ended up higher, so I thought that has to a buy day, i.e low violation, buy.

[richbois 10]

richbois,

you will have to excuse my questions, I am just trying to gain clarity.

 

From your table 11th Thursday (last week) was a Buying day, however the market opened higher and closed much lower.

 

Then Friday 12th is a sell day but the prices opened lower and ended up higher, so I thought that has to a buy day, i.e low violation, buy.

 

If you have read Taylor, he says that on Buy day we need a Decline from the highs of the SS day. So on Wednesday we closed near the highs and therefore needed a decline on the Buy day, that is why we went lower. Taylor used to highball is book to figure out how much the Decline should be, however with computers today we can use programs like excel to calculate averages and have a better idea of what the move should be. On Friday we violated the lows giving us a chance to buy and then it rallied.

 

Perfect text book Taylor.

 

Most of us are daytraders so we are looking for a direction for the day, and we dont care what the name of the day is, if we need a decline then we short, if we need a rally then we long, it is nearly that simple.

 

Check my website you will find lots of additional info.

http://www.taylortradingtechnique.net

Edited December 18, 2008 by richbois

[richbois 10]

Today was SS day. Only TF managed to make a new high but not by much. Since the others failed to follow then the markets went and tested the lows with ES reaching the precise projected lows.

[Eiger 10]

The divergence/non-confirmation between the Russ, S&Ps, Dow and Naz was telling today.

 

In assessing the objective areas, do you pay more attention to the day session data or Globex data?

[richbois 10]

The divergence/non-confirmation between the Russ, S&Ps, Dow and Naz was telling today.

 

In assessing the objective areas, do you pay more attention to the day session data or Globex data?

 

I find that the 24h globex projections better but the day session open help in deciding what to do in case of gaps that produce violations on Sell days or SS day.

[elovemer 10]

.....the cycle sure proved out.... but i was wrong in thinking that it couldn't do it.....

.... i said the cycle ended around 10 am .... the drop really started to go around 11 am

 

....but the drop was not early...... instead it finished right at the end of the cycle.....

..... if it had finished early.... i would say good chance of a pop up

.... as it stands.... i can't say what is the next move.... except to say that the upper cycle is now quite a bit longer than the lower cycle....unless the low is not in yet.....if we continue down significantly from here without an intervening high.....

 

... as far as my cycle.... the lower cycle ends thursday morning....

.... if it went down and made an early low.... then you might expect a pop up toward the upper cycle ending....

.... but as we are now.... it looks incapable of making an extreme low by thursday morning as it would have to really crash hard to make a low on 30 min frame.... :0)

[elovemer 10]

....the first pink rectangle show what happened the last time the cycle went out of whack....denoted by the purple buy day B ...and purple mid day M....

Edited December 19, 2008 by elovemer

[richbois 10]

....the first pink rectangle show what happened the last time the cycle went out of whack....denoted by the purple buy day B ...and purple mid day M....

 

Far from me to critisise or claim to understand the way you use and apply Taylor, however the last time that TTT didnt perform according to plan was on Dec 2nd when we had a failled 3 day rally. The effect of that falliure got corrected on Dec 8th when we ended up with a very shallow Decline on that Buy day.

 

Again today so far is showing a shallower decline but this could explained that the markets have turned a bit more bullish as of late

[elovemer 10]

....i am using my own cycle... no one else's......

..... I have not taken a look at other people's method they are using....

 

....so likewise... i can't comment on what you may or may not be using....

.... but it is great to read your posts... very informative.... thanks

[richbois 10]

Today was a Buy Day. Markets were mixed as TF and NQ managed to make higher Highs and YM made a Lower Low. ES and YM achieved their projected average Decline.

 

Have a great weekend

[richbois 10]

Today was a Sell day. The 60% odds did favor making lower lows and we did. Markets reversed when we got close to the Recap MA numbers

[richbois 10]

Today was a SS day. As mentioned in last night's report we had 85% odds of getting back above the Buy day lows. All the Futures except NQ made it however the Indexes didn't.