My Trade Ideas....

[TinGull 10]

Gosh...I don't remember how I came across it...but there are some scans in stock fetcher and Telechart that are basically to show 60 or 90 day channels. Some of the stocks that it brings up have real crappy channels and some are really nice. This may have been one of the nicer ones I pulled up.

[TinGull 10]

On TSO, keep in mind the IV is at yearly highs right now, so going long it by buying calls is going to be a bad move. You could take advantage of a long position, though, by selling a 50/70 put spread to take advantage of not only a move higher, but a decline in IV. Currently that spreads sitting at a 15.55 credit for a 4.40 cent margin risk.

 

Risk 440 to make 1550 on a move and drop in IV. If IV were to implode then you could make money even quicker.

[walterw 10]

Whats normally the deadline for IV to move ?

[TinGull 10]

IV moves all the time depending on what is happening to the stock. For instance...earnings releases IV will always move up a few weeks prior just because no one knows what is going to happen to the stock. Will it rocket higher or fall on its face? no one knows, to the volatility is being implied by the option activity. When the news comes out, everyone knows now whats going to happen, so the IV goes down. Hope that makes sense.

[TinGull 10]

 

nice basing action on this stock...nicely priced, too. Deep options market...not bad.

[Reaver 10]

Interesting stuff Tin. You have some good ideas!

[TinGull 10]

Thanks! Currently long TLT...

[Reaver 10]

Have you ever read anything from Marty Zweig?

[TinGull 10]

No I haven't. Worth readin?

[Reaver 10]

heh heh I was gonna ask you the same thing. LOL

 

You mentioned looking at options volatility, and it reminded me of Zweig, who "invented" the put/call ratio...made me think to ask if you'd read it..I have been thinking about picking it up, but figured I'd ask...Sorry to jump off topic. I'll let you know how it turns out.

[TinGull 10]

HA! S'all good. I was in a chat with Price Healey today...invented the Acceleration Bands. Very, very informative stuff how he trades.

[Reaver 10]

Thanks for the info, I'll have to check it out....I saw his book on Amazon the other day....have you read it?

[TinGull 10]

I haven't. The ways he uses his Acc Bands indicator is really neat though. Can't give it all away, tho

[Reaver 10]

ha ha no worries there man I understand. LOL

[brownsfan019 17]

Guys,

Allow me to save you some time and money if I may re: Headley.

 

A few years ago I met Price and one of his salesman at the NY Traders Expo. They both talked a great game, as you've seen Tin. Looking for the 'set it and forget ATM machine', I signed for $5000 worth of auto-trading services from bigtrends.com which Price runs and operates. So, I put out 5 grand for his services b/c the track records (most hypothetical) and his acceleration bands, etc. all looked like gold. So, I funded my options xpress account and off we went with Price's services.

 

Long story short - let's just say Price provided me with A TON OF LOSSES that I was able to use at tax time.

 

I kept in touch with Price while my account was dropping hard and while I was friendly, he was friendly. He reassured me things were ok and that if need be, he would extend my subscriptions out to get my account back up. Well, when that time came, Price was no where to be found. He refused my calls and would not return my emails. It was bad enough that I was taking a bath, but this snake just ran and hide. I am often reminded of Boiler Room when I think about this experience. While it was not exactly like that, the sales pitch was heavy and promised the world... just like Seth did for Harry Renard in the movie.

 

I obviously learned my lesson and learned it hard.

 

Please do not repeat the same mistake I made.

 

Price Headley and bigtrends.com are a joke and should be avoided at all costs.

[Reaver 10]

Thanks for the info man.

[TinGull 10]

Sorry to hear things didn't go good there. I'm not at all recommending a service and never would recco a service to anyone. The thing he had to say were interesting for sure and were things i had never seen before. I wouldn't trade off of those ideas alone...ever....as i think I've got a much more solid understanding of things regarding the market than to base my trades off of someone elses indicators. But...his stuff was cool to see.

[brownsfan019 17]

I'm glad that you didn't get the hook line and sinker like I did Tin. That was a few years ago, but it's still a hard lesson learned. And I posted that more for some of our new traders more so than you and Reav.

[Nick1984 10]

I reckon the best education i'll find is the one the market teaches me. I've always been wary of snake oil salesmen. Thanks for sharing that experience brown It's people like you who contribute honestly to these type of boards who provide the best possible type of educational guidance to traders.

[brownsfan019 17]

No prob Nick, glad to share and hopefully save someone the frustration and money.

 

I told Price in my last email to him that whenever possible I was going to tell as many people as I could that his services were terrible and should be avoided. I wasn't lying. I've posted on elitetrader whenever I see his name and now here. I haven't brought it up myself, but I will not hesitate to share my experience when I see his name mentioned at all.

 

And before anyone thinks I am simply a vendor basher, please keep in mind that I did in fact purchase services from Price and can provide an informed opinion. I thought Price was a nice enough guy to at least follow through on his promises to me, but I was terribly wrong. He knows how to sell and preys on that. In my time with his services (1 year) I never saw anything even remotely profitable over time. Yes, there were some winners here and there, but nothing compensated for the many, many losses. And I was using 5 or so of his services as a gold or platinum member. This was not just one service that hit a losing streak. At the time, this was his best 5 services they had... If that was the best, I could only imagine what the worse ones were doing... :\

 

I revisit his site now and again and he's got a good system in place - when a system dies, just get rid of it and find a new one. The smoke and mirrors being done here is just amazing b/c he remains in business somehow. It's a shame that people like this are even allowed to operate a business, but to each his own. I learned my lesson and as I said, I hope my posts serve as a reminder to others that the grail is not out there and if it was, you cannot purchase it.

[Reaver 10]

No prob Nick, glad to share and hopefully save someone the frustration and money.

 

I told Price in my last email to him that whenever possible I was going to tell as many people as I could that his services were terrible and should be avoided. I wasn't lying. I've posted on elitetrader whenever I see his name and now here. I haven't brought it up myself, but I will not hesitate to share my experience when I see his name mentioned at all.

 

And before anyone thinks I am simply a vendor basher, please keep in mind that I did in fact purchase services from Price and can provide an informed opinion. I thought Price was a nice enough guy to at least follow through on his promises to me, but I was terribly wrong. He knows how to sell and preys on that. In my time with his services (1 year) I never saw anything even remotely profitable over time. Yes, there were some winners here and there, but nothing compensated for the many, many losses. And I was using 5 or so of his services as a gold or platinum member. This was not just one service that hit a losing streak. At the time, this was his best 5 services they had... If that was the best, I could only imagine what the worse ones were doing... :\

 

I revisit his site now and again and he's got a good system in place - when a system dies, just get rid of it and find a new one. The smoke and mirrors being done here is just amazing b/c he remains in business somehow. It's a shame that people like this are even allowed to operate a business, but to each his own. I learned my lesson and as I said, I hope my posts serve as a reminder to others that the grail is not out there and if it was, you cannot purchase it.

 

Yeah I hear you there man. I've always been lucky enough to be a cynical bastard...I bought a couple of crappy books and wasted a bunch of time researching bad ideas on the internet..but luckily I haven't dropped any big money other than on some worthless books here and there and a few free trials to chat rooms when I first started.

 

I was lucky to find a solid method and ideology early in the game...I am still as always messing around with and attempting to build on my knowledge...but I always have the old standby method that works fine.

 

If I never was able to make any improvements to my current method, that would be fine with me...but in the meantime...I am always going to be looking for improvement.

 

*PS...I have never had any big disasters with vendors and books...but I have a bunch of small losses here and there that add up to a relatively large amount of money. ha ha But it was worth it, as I know what I know now.

[TinGull 10]

 

Just an update on TSO.... Had a KILLER pop today

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Could get a possible long here if we get a nice hammer or something at this new support/old resistance.

 

Great find!

 

Hmmm... Maybe I should take my own advice sometimes...

 

:\

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure I asked for a hammer at the new support level and bam, there you go.

 

Candlestick analysis is about as solid as it comes on dailys, I am convinced of it more and more each day.

 

This is just too easy sometimes. I know, it doesn't always work and how can you possibly play every stock out there, but this was right on with TSO. I just said let's see a pullback to test the new support level (old resistance that was SOLID). This resistance finally broke and then price retested the area and was respected. And then when you get a nice gap up like this... That's just gravy.

 

Tin, you play anything here? I hope someone made some money on this.

[walterw 10]

Perfect Flip there Tin ¡¡... did you took that long previously ? cheers Walter.

[TinGull 10]

Because I am so awesome, I forgot to watch this one. So, kicking myself I surely am...as this was a sweet play. Im still trying to get used to watching more than 1 chart, so with time I'll get used to it.

 

But yea, this was as sweet a play as it comes. Should be going higher from here.