My Trade Ideas....

[TinGull 10]

Popped up with this stock:

 

JADE

 

Has an incredible surge in volume yesterday as price broke a 2 month downtrend line.

 

 

I'll watch this one. IV is pretty cheap compared to it's historical...I don't usually compare the 2, but the IV on this stock's options is trading about 140% in the OCTs. Historical vol is at 180%, so still cheap to the historical. Highest IV was at a touch over 200% about 3 weeks ago, so came off a decent clip from there, and is moving up as of yesterday.

[TinGull 10]

Had to bite. Looked really nice on the 15min coming down into the 8ema and went long the NOV 5 calls. IV was "cheap" compared to where it had been and it's breaking to higher highs now, so all is good. Was filled at 2.05 ($205 per contract) and currently has a natural of 2.25 for a gain so far of almost 10% on cap invested.

 

[walterw 10]

Tin, I like to see what you are sharing on this swing trading aproach... also I like to see your consistent technical arguments on this setups...

 

will you keep us posted as how this stocks evolved ? it will be cool to see here to 10 days what actually happened...

 

thanks for sharing this great stuff... cheers Walter.

[TinGull 10]

Absolutely! I'm about done searching out positions for now, so I'll just keep things updated. So far everythings crankin'.

[TinGull 10]

I'll keep this as a journal of types, too.

 

I'll post up a picture of my positions statement since it'll be easier than typing it all in.

 

[TinGull 10]

Well, today was going awesome until the markets just TANKED and took some of my profits with it. I still ended up making a teeny bit of shake on the day...maybe 20 bucks, but so goes the swing trading world I guess. Nothing really technical changed for me, so till tomorrow....

[TinGull 10]

[TinGull 10]

Keeping an eye on this one for monday...

 

[Reaver 10]

Tin, you may have already discussed this, but would you say fundamentals have anything to do with your analysis? I don't think fundamentals would really have importance on a swing basis, but I figured I'd ask if you have looked into it......I have my 401K with Fidelity and they give you access to tons of research for free, which includes the S&P credit ratings, etc which would seem very handy in determining position trades...(I work in lending so credit ratings have a special place in my heart lol).

[TinGull 10]

To the point of just not wanting to own a crap company...that's really it. I may run a scan on EPS or PE stuff but that stuff doesn't make sense to me, really. It's easier to see what the players are doing in the chart rather than try and interpret the fundamentals into the equation. Why do you ask? Is ClearChannel a crappy company?

[Dogpile 10]

Gave FLS a try as a swing trade.

[Z_trade 10]

Take a look on NOC Bull Ratio Spread opportunity.

 

Low volatility, high probability for sharp up move and possibility to get 3:1 ratio with no up front cost, unlimited profit.

 

Here is a scenario:

 

V:19

 

Sell: -1 Nov-07 75.00 Call / Bid 5.10 - Ask 5.35 / x 1

Buy: +3 Nov-07 80.00 Call / Bid 1.60 - Ask 1.75/ x 3

 

 

Upside Maximum Profit: Unlimited

No loss occurs if the underlying stock falls drastically instead of rises

Max loss if NOC closes exactly at the strike price of Long call - $80. 75 Call covers the entire price of the long Call options and max loss is a difference between strikes: $500

[TinGull 10]

 

Gained a little today. Also put on a new trade on SIMO. Sold a call spread NOV25/20 for max return of 37% on invested cap. Looking for this to keep headed down at least to 18.20ish and possibly to test the lows at 16.80ish.

 

[TinGull 10]

Nice stuff ZTrade...I like it a lot!

[brownsfan019 17]

Tin,

I see some possible support at 20.00 and 18.00. Looks like this puppy likes the round numbers.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

[TinGull 10]

Definitely noticed that and definitely keeping a keen eye on it. My stop is above the 24 dollar mark and we've got a month to go yet on this spread. We'll see how it all turns out.

[TinGull 10]

Well, decided to close out some of my positions this morning just to mitigate some risk while I had some profits.

 

BHI - I bought a call spread to minimize my risk on that trade but participate a bit in the up move. Initial cost was 98 dollars per contract and I sold it this morning for 177 per contract, or 55% on invested capital.

 

GDX: I bought some calls outright since premium was cheap enough for $155 per contract and sold this morning...a little late...for 227 per contract or 68% on invested capital.

 

I bought a few shares of GLD the other day and sold them this morning. I don't really like buying shares outright, rather play options. Didn't make much on that position. I had bought them for 73.53 and cleared them out for 74.77 for a 1.7% gain. Cute, huh?

 

So anyways, I've got one other position going right now on SIMO, I sold a call spread 3 days ago (20/25 for 1.82 credit) and am currently down a tiny bit on it (15 bucks per contract about...). The IV expanded all to the heck on this one, too. When I sold the spread IV was pushing around 55 and now its 63. In 3 days...crazy.

 

So, that's all for my ideas right now. VIX is moving like gangbusters up over 12% today.

[TinGull 10]

SIMO is sittin pretty at 1.35 now, 47 cents profit so far on the trade per contract.

 

[TinGull 10]

Also sold a put spread on SPY and QQQQ into the close today.

 

Sold 150/149 Put Spread for credit of 22 cents. Be a 21% ROI after commissions. I sold on the higher volume hammer happening at support of lows of the day:

 

 

Sold 52/51 Put Spread on the Qs for a 26 cent credit. 27% ROI there.

Sold this on the hammer at the bottom of a triangle forming. Really nice pattern there.

 

 

If the opening futures action is any indication of tomorrows action....things will be good for these. Granted, they're NOV spreads and I sitll have a ways to go on them, but if I end up seeing 18-20% return on them I'll consider buying them back.

[Reaver 10]

Also sold a put spread on SPY and QQQQ into the close today.

 

Sold 150/149 Put Spread for credit of 22 cents. Be a 21% ROI after commissions. I sold on the higher volume hammer happening at support of lows of the day:

 

 

Sold 52/51 Put Spread on the Qs for a 26 cent credit. 27% ROI there.

Sold this on the hammer at the bottom of a triangle forming. Really nice pattern there.

 

 

If the opening futures action is any indication of tomorrows action....things will be good for these. Granted, they're NOV spreads and I sitll have a ways to go on them, but if I end up seeing 18-20% return on them I'll consider buying them back.

 

Nice move Tin!

[TinGull 10]

[walterw 10]

Tin, thats where a "flip trade" would set up... cheers The Chimp.

[brownsfan019 17]

 

 

Tin,

What a GORGEOUS looking stock for the candlestick trader. Wow, this is nice. This would be one for the watch list for me, that's for sure. Just look at those levels being respected and producing great candle signals.

 

Could get a possible long here if we get a nice hammer or something at this new support/old resistance.

 

Great find!

[TinGull 10]

Yea walt and brown...this is one I started stalking a little while ago. I'll be watching at EOD for something that could setup.

[walterw 10]

Tin... any particular method to scan this oportunities ?