Panera Bread

[TinGull 10]

One I'm watching right now is PNRA. So far, it's in a seemingly phase 1 (accumulation phase) on the daily charts. Right now it's at the upper range of it's bracket and IV (implied volatility) has been slowly creeping up. Definitely more OI (open interest) on the call side of the equation in the NOV out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, and even more in the jan 55's. Not a huge move from where it is right now (48.95) but it is showing some interesting volume action. Here's the daily on a far out look:

 

 

Now, upon closer inspection...we've got a higher low occurring in the range as well as abnormal volume happening at the lower bracket extremes. Volume yesterday increased on PNRA while overall markets saw some anemic action, and price did pop 1.58% while the major markets saw a draw down. Volume is increasing as we target the upper bracket extreme, though not so overly huge to lead us to be curious. I'll be watching for a break of this range above 50 bucks and look to buy a pullback to the top of it. Perhaps a call spread to limit my risk upon entry, then if it works in my favor, look to buy more.

 

[Reaver 10]

Dang Chris you just made me hungry with your talks of Panera! Thanks a lot man. I am stuck at work. LOL

[TinGull 10]

hahahahah! Well, PNRA got nailed like the rest of the market today for whatever reason. Never triggered in the buy area, so no harm no foul. But I agree...I watched a thing on Panera this morning and the closest one to me is an hour away. I used to live right down the street from 2 of them!

[Reaver 10]

LOL man I am glad I have to drive through bad traffic to get there or else I'd be fat as hell! ha ha drool drool

 

I have to shut up now I am getting hungry and they're closed.

 

Okay now as far as what you're using to determine phase, so I can be on the same page...what are the phase definitions (cliff notes version is fine)...I got my phase info from Stan Weinstein and Chuck Dukas, and it doesn't seem like I am looking at it the same way as you.

 

May have already been mentioned, but what charts are you using? They are sharp! Is that IRT?

[brownsfan019 17]

Hi fellas,

Figured if I was going to consider some swings again, mind as well start here.

 

A longer-term look at PNRA:

 

 

 

 

And then zooming in to the recent action we see:

 

 

 

Notes:

After I did the longer-term look, I saw that we are right at a resistance zone in my opinion.

I then took the longer-term look in closer to see how recent action has been.

I meant to put volume on as well, but I did that after taking the screenshots and now see 2 higher volume red spinning tops right at a resistance zone.

Looks like a good short to me, looking to cover some/all at the next support area at 46 or so.

 

So now I could play this by shorting the underlying or buying a put. For right now, those are the available plays for me. I know there's a ton of stuff you can do with options, but not right now.

 

For our tracking here, I am going to play this two ways:

 

1) Short at the open on Friday (really not happy about shorting on a Fri with a hold over the weekend likely. we'll see). Stop would be placed a few ticks above the high of these spinning tops and above this resistance zone.

 

2) Purchase a put and based on the post here, I am looking for a deep in the money call with a delta of .8 - .85. Tin - can you find me one or two that fit this profile? I still need to find a website that has this info for free, so if anyone has some links, please share. I haven't traded an option in so long that I have no idea where that's listed and it's late here and I should be :sleep:

 

Sometime Fri I will update the trade to see where we shorted and what put we bought if Tin or Reav can find me one.

 

For this trade we will assume 100 shares for sake of keeping the math easy on me.

[Reaver 10]

Whoops my eyes were playing tricks on me, those are the same definitions I was thinking of. LOL

 

Brownsfan, I know nothing about options, makes my brain go numb....but I'll see if I can track down what you're looking for. I think if I paid attention long enough it would all make better sense...so that is why I am here.

[TinGull 10]

Good zones. I was looking for PNRA to break, but with the market doing its thing yesterday...couldn't quite break it.

 

Your chart....I don't have 2 days in a row of a red spinning top on any of my dailies for PNRA...

 

I wouldn't be so quick as to take a short by buying a put outright here just looking at the volume of this down day. Overall market volume was UP for the day while PNRA had a lower volume down day. If PNRA was to break the lows of yesterday on higher volume looking at a 30 minute chart, then a bear call spread could be initiated on the NOV calls. If you are bearish, then far month puts have a bit less premium in them to buy. FEB 50's have a little open interest there now, so if you're just buying a couple contracts that'd be fine to be able to make sure that strike still trades.

 

I would look more for initiating a bear call spread by selling the NOV 50 and buying the NOV 55. The implied vol is in an uptrend right now about to hit it's highs this far in the past few months near 50...so premium could be built up for earnings coming out on the 23rd of this month. Whispers say .37 cents, estimates at .36 cents...I love Panera, used to eat there all the time so they have my money and should have yours!! GiddyUP! (That was sooo Pete Najarian)

 

Anyhow...I wouldn't be a seller of PNRA right now, bottom line. By selling that call spread as prices traded last night, you'd risk 3.60 for making 1.34 with about a 60% chance of it expiring worthless so you can collect your whole premium. Basically a 37% return with a 60% chance at that. Thats the best return on next month options right now for PNRA, so if that doesn't suit your taste, I'd stay out and look for something better.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Tin - that's weird about the charts being different. I just grabbed that from quote.com and sometimes their stuff doesn't line up with the others.... Maybe that is including some post/pre-market as well? No idea since I haven't traded stocks in awhile.

[TinGull 10]

Might've included some post market data and just drawn a new bar for it. The ranges are the same on both bars...so maybe it was just a glitch on their part.

[TinGull 10]

Oh Reaver...I didn't mention...those are TeleChart charts. I'm really debating between them and StockFetcher right now, cause I can use SF on my Mac, and be completely Mac.

[brownsfan019 17]

Here's the chart again. This time the 2nd spinning top is now removed. Gotta love free charts.

 

 

Based on the red spinning top at a resistance level, I would still short PNRA and/or buy a put at today's open. I realize it's 10:30am now, but the analysis was fine even with that error from quote.com.

[brownsfan019 17]

Here's the longer-term chart from stockcharts.com. Looks the same as quote.com.

 

[TinGull 10]

yup, those look right now. A short could be in order, I just wouldn't take it, personally. I see a higher low and a slightly higher hi, so I'd look for a more higher odds trade to the upside at some point in the future. That's just me, though...

[brownsfan019 17]

In my view tin, I see a good risk/reward trade.

 

Today's open was 48.68.

 

Stop was placed above the high of the spinning top, so just above the 50.00 level would be good in my opinion. Have to watch those round, even numbers in stocks.

 

Assuming we are short at the open, risk was $1.57sh (assuming stop at 50.25).

 

Looking to cover some/all of the position near 46.00, which would result in a profit of at least $2.68/sh.

 

Risking 1.57 to make at least 2.68 = 1.7 risk/reward. I'd love to see it at 2.0 or higher and it could get there if it breaks thru that first support level.

[Reaver 10]

  TinGull said:

Oh Reaver...I didn't mention...those are TeleChart charts. I'm really debating between them and StockFetcher right now, cause I can use SF on my Mac, and be completely Mac.

 

Good to go. Thanks for the info.

[TinGull 10]

We'll see what happens come next week I guess. You could very well be right. Has been in a down trend for the past year...With volume terribly weak all across the board today, it's not boding well for the bulls as it is.

[brownsfan019 17]

All I see tin is a bearish candle pattern at a resistance point. That's it. I like the odds of the trade and we'll see what happens. Getting almost 2-1 on the trade, I'll take it every day.

[TinGull 10]

Yea, I might need to start thinking a bit simpler....I like you're thinking style

[brownsfan019 17]

  TinGull said:

Yea, I might need to start thinking a bit simpler....I like you're thinking style

 

Tin, there's a fine line between being too simple and over-thinking things. We've all been there. For me, standard candlestick analysis works well on daily charts. The smaller the timeframe you go however, the weaker they become on their own. That's something I've learned over the years.

[brownsfan019 17]

Tin,

Are you in a panera play? Down .20 cents today. Down 1.11 since we discussed it.

 

 

 

Looking for this to test the 46 area.

[TinGull 10]

I'm not in it...the IV is sitting too high for me to want to get in on a single leg position, and the calls weren't giving me enough premium to collect much of a credit for the risk exposure...so I sat tight on it.

[brownsfan019 17]

Tin,

We'll see how this works out. Right now, we are getting a nice bullish engulfing but it's still early. My daytrading side says get out or at least move the stop to a more protective level.... the swing trading side says just look at the daily, right?

 

Time will tell.

 

[TinGull 10]

Ive certainly been watching this one. Interesting the strength so far in the stock on an otherwise crappy day for the major markets. Volume will tell me at the end of the day, too. I wish I could just use candles like you, but I somehow gotta see volume all the time.

[trader273 10]

Looks like PNRA is finding some sort of support on the window. Looking at the chart, the window is not very big at all, but nonetheless, it is still valid. At least IMHO, it is valid till we get a close below it.

 

If this day finishes out a bullish engulfing I would argue that this is a good time to go long.

 

Here is the chart:

[TinGull 10]

Ive still got an alert set to wake me up if it goes over 50. I still stand on my original thoughts regarding the trade of going long a break above the box formed from 40 to 50.