Panera Bread

[TinGull 10]

2 hour chart of PNRA

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Well Tin, this guy just didn't have the gusto we needed. 273 saw a window that I did not see and it bounced right off that. Closing the trade per yesterday's price action yielded a small profit, but nothing to write home about.

 

I think you'll see with candles that there are many singles and doubles hit and then you get that home run or grand slam on occasion as well. The key is to keep swinging.

 

I absolutely hate baseball analogies but they seem to work so well. I've tried to make football ones work and they just don't have the same follow through.

[brownsfan019 17]

And after looking at it more, a reversal into a buy could work well here too.

 

We know there's some overhead resistance here, but if it busts through, you'll want to be long. If not, we can keep playing this 'box' or 'channel' type formation.

 

Closer timeframe chart:

 

 

Longer timeframe with possible resistance highlighted:

 

 

 

 

So we see possible immediate resistance @ 49.50 or so.

 

If it can bust through that level, then I'd be looking at 52 and 55 as the next possible zones.

 

We may see after today or tomorrow that it could not bust through this overhead resistance that we exit long and possibly short again. Some may be thinking this is futile, but as long as the trades are making money, I am ok with that. When this busts and if we are in it, we'll be even more happy.

[Reaver 10]

Tin,

 

Good idea on the 2 hr charts by the way...I was wondering, what would say the main reason you decided to look at 2 hr charts? Was it just the way it was presented that made the most sense to you, or was there another reason?

[TinGull 10]

BF, very good points. Looking at the daily, its got increasing volume on a spinning top at resistance...it's a tough sell for the bulls to gain the upper hand here, IMO. But, if the markets start to strengthen up again, perhaps it'll help PNRA higher. Regardless, I'm watching 50 like a hawk.

[brownsfan019 17]

BF, very good points. Looking at the daily, its got increasing volume on a spinning top at resistance...it's a tough sell for the bulls to gain the upper hand here, IMO. But, if the markets start to strengthen up again, perhaps it'll help PNRA higher. Regardless, I'm watching 50 like a hawk.

 

 

Yeah, 50 looks like a key level on this one.

 

This is the kind of stuff that drove me nuts on stocks - you really have to watch your stuff on each one and treat each one individually; whereas watching the indexes is more straightforward in my eyes.

 

The work with stocks can be intense, esp if you do not just focus on a basket and if you throw options into the mix... oh boy... lotsa work. That's probably what's holding me back on getting back into the stock trading - knowing that I have to build some sort of scans, baskets of stocks, etc. and then watch them each and every day. Like you said here, if this breaks the 50 level, there could be some good buying coming in. But, you have to be ready when that happens. Miss it and you could be kicking yourself for months.

[TinGull 10]

Yea,

 

I've narrowed my list down to about 25 ETF's and stocks with nice deep options markets. The one thing I hated about index trading was that there was no diversification. That's what led me down a bad path last year with options, where my money was held in the index options...I thought...I've got 4 different symbols, should be diversified enough...hahaha!

 

So now I watch a list of sector ETF's and some commodities ETF's as well as a couple different stocks. I hate to have to build scans and all that, seems like too much work for the gain of only mass confusion. Every weekend I'll start to look at what the possibilities are, areas to watch on each...and just set up alerts on each to take the work out of having to remember levels on each.

 

Like today...Put alerts on TLT (20 yr fixed income ETF) for a long play and XLU (Utilities Select Sector) for a short play. With the 25 issues I'm watching now, I've got 14 different areas of the market to play. I LOVE watching Fast Money cause those guys are a freakin' riot, and Jeff Macke said last night: "There's always a bull market somewhere". It's neat to see indices trading down while my account still grows with long positions (or synthetic longs when I sell verticals).

[brownsfan019 17]

Good points Tin.

 

I can see why focusing on a some etf's a few stocks is a good way to go. There's only so much time in a day to do your analysis and set your plays up. I think if I did the stock thing again it would be similar to yours here with the etf's and some stocks. I would want to scan for high volume and % gainers/decliners as well. I think there's some possible plays for stocks that can break out, create new support/resistance and then give a nice candle signal to take the trade. Kind of like the post here. Granted that was a cheap stock, but as soon as the volume moved into it and it broke, there were 2 chances to get long.

[TinGull 10]

Yea, those are fabulous plays. Pure Weinstein analysis regarding the market phases breaking from a phase 1 to a 2. There's lots of good tools out there to scan for that kind of stuff, too. Trading in lateral channels. But...I gotta keep it as simple as I possibly can.

[Reaver 10]

Weinstein is a good man. Made a huge difference in the way I see the markets. The hair kicks ass too!

[TinGull 10]

 

BF was right on with that spinning top he saw at resistance. PNRA powered back down to the bottom of that range.