MC's House of Mirrors

[MC 10]

For you US long term investors...do you have concern over the long term value of funds since they are based on USD which is tanking on inflation?

 

I find myself wondering what would come of all our US savings and things that are valued in USD should the USD collapse. I'd like to think they can't just evaporate but on paper they are worth less and less each day. GULP!

 

 

That's a monthly chart, It's being pinched off lower and lower so a pop is bound to happen at some point in the somewhat near future. I don't think it's going to be anything major, but maybe enough to lower oil and metals perhaps. Might be a good time to buy some gold, gold stocks or something of the sort.

 

I'm wondering if I should cash out of USD vehicles and put my money in something more globally supported like gold?

 

Input, thoughts?

[MC 10]

[MC 10]

Daily DJI. You can see the triple rsi divergence, AKA kiss of death. Fibs are getting into the ambush range for a short. White trend line was support but is now resistance and also there is structure resistance meeting the same point. 13,350-13,360 is formidable resistance whether you love TA or not.

 

Weekly DJI. Here again triple rsi divergence. Fibs are in the same boat here.

Again stuck at structure resistance. And look at the weekly volume, modest volume, so unless the news tomorrow sparks lots of institutional buying there really is little bullish about this rally.

 

Just my 2 pesos worth.

[MC 10]

All I can say is I see shorts going in Friday.

Great place to get short as it seems, 50ema/trendline/fib ambush zone/structure resistance/.

Notice it did break those only to be rejected, another reason I think those were shorts going in on an upthrust.

I'll be amazed if Monday is green, but I'll be ready to trade either way. If the above mentioned resistance cluster breaks with buyers we could get a HUGE rally.

[MC 10]

Could any of you guys that use Tradestation help me out and save me a call to the broker. I need a screenshot or description of the OSO order window on a 2 lot setup.

I can't figure out which spot to put the trailing stop in and for what amount of points.

 

What I want is a scalper lot out at 10 points.

Trail the stop to break even on the 2nd lot.

Open target on the 2nd lot so I'd probably set that limit order at 200 points or something way out there so it doesn't get hit and just manually trail the stop to structure high/lows then.

I think the below screenshot is right but I'm not playing it till I'm sure.

 

Oh...1 other side note. I had a 7 point slippage on a stop market order on YM, is that reasonable? I was pissed but it was a fairly sharp move and it's only happened 2 times on me.

 

Thanks.

[MC 10]

Look at the buy and sell on the chart...how did I get filled on a candle that didn't even touch my price for either side???

I'll tell ya how, TS data fcuked up and my chart had wrong data!

 

Here is a chart after reboot of the platform. So the buy order was touched but not the sell order? I called them to be sure I was flat and he said don't trade or go by charts...time and sales shows orders at my stop level.

 

So the premiere chart vendor says to not use their charts.

 

I don't think I'm being unreasonable at all, a platform that isn't free needs to be accurate IMO. Maybe I didn't have slippage all those times and perhaps they were chart issues?

 

I can tell you who NOT to use.

I'm looking heavily at OEC, anybody with experiences with them live have input?

 

Thanks

[MC 10]

http://www.trousermusket.com/video/flash.html

 

Ok...here's a video clip of what I've been dealing with on TS the whole time. Odd issues like that a few times a day as well as the below posted chart/data errors. The flick over was me moving to a RSI chart instead of ADX at about the moment the order was taken out. Then you see they then put it back in and lagged for a few seconds further before finally really filling. I counted 8 seconds which on a serverside order isn't right at all. It was stop market so I expect some slippage but not that bad and the benefit is it should be an instant fill.

 

Some may think the flicker is me hacking the vid or something, all I can say is I have nothing to gain by doing that and I have a track record of being overly honest. I've posted charts that were downright embarrassing so I think my credibility shouldn't be in question. Not that I care about E-rep that much but it's nice to be backed by your peers.

 

After looking around I think I'll be moving to IB and use their DOM's entry and then use Ninja Trader for the charting. I am open to suggestions as well.

[buysell84 10]

So the premiere chart vendor says to not use their charts.

 

I don't think I'm being unreasonable at all, a platform that isn't free needs to be accurate IMO. Maybe I didn't have slippage all those times and perhaps they were chart issues?

 

I can tell you who NOT to use.

I'm looking heavily at OEC, anybody with experiences with them live have input?

 

MC,

 

I am spending this Sunday morning browsing the trading websites searching for feedback and reviews on Tradestation because I want to commit to a long term platform. I was leaning toward TS because so many traders use and recommend it. I believe many of the members here a TL including the moderator are TS platform users. The learning curve on any platform is considerable so I want my next one to be the last one. Have you spoken any further to TS tech support? Was this a data issue or a platform version issue? You are using the TS most recent update correct (8.3 *). I am going to hold off on my decision until I know more about this.

 

Chas

[MC 10]

So the premiere chart vendor says to not use their charts.

 

I don't think I'm being unreasonable at all, a platform that isn't free needs to be accurate IMO. Maybe I didn't have slippage all those times and perhaps they were chart issues?

 

I can tell you who NOT to use.

I'm looking heavily at OEC, anybody with experiences with them live have input?

 

MC,

 

I am spending this Sunday morning browsing the trading websites searching for feedback and reviews on Tradestation because I want to commit to a long term platform. I was leaning toward TS because so many traders use and recommend it. I believe many of the members here a TL including the moderator are TS platform users. The learning curve on any platform is considerable so I want my next one to be the last one. Have you spoken any further to TS tech support? Was this a data issue or a platform version issue? You are using the TS most recent update correct (8.3 *). I am going to hold off on my decision until I know more about this.

 

Chas

 

I'm going to give their support one more try. I love the platform capabilities and that's the sole reason I'm even trying. I believe their commish is something else I need to address because it seems they are charging me more than the advertised price despite telling me I am getting the correct price.

 

I am running 8.3 with a very capable computer and bandwidth. See here's where I get angry, they hold orders serverside so even if I had sub standard stuff on my side the execution side shouldn't matter. I had someone suggest that their Matrix window was a resource hog and it was slowing down my order execution. I fail to see how that could be knowing TS servers are holding the order. And 8 seconds for a stop market order...cmon now that's just unreasonable.

 

Many use Infinity AT as a broker to compliment TS charting. I may look in that direction down the road as well.

 

By all means let me know what you come up with in your search as well.

 

Thanks

[buysell84 10]

MC,

 

I do not see how you can be having a problem with TS commissions??? This is what really throws another red flag up for me. How can their customer support be so out of step with their enormous marketshare?

 

Now, you are trading YM correct? Their TSW clearly states that if you are doing 300 or less contracts it is $2.13. They also publish what their commissions are if you trade higher volume.

 

I currently trade YM with IB and their bundled commission is also $2.13. This was one of the reasons that I had them in the + column in my punch list. I have no intention of closing my IB account but at least I figured that I would be getting the same commission when I do my 10 RT's each month so I can get the platform for free. I also checked with Infinity Futures last week (in fact went to their offices since I live in Chicago) and they will match the IB and TS commissions. The guys at Infinity are ex-prop traders so they have a different mindset then all the big boys. The other thing is their day margin is fantastic at $500 per contract. They push Sierra as the chart platform and so it is also one of the platforms on my list.

 

Chas

[MC 10]

MC,

 

I do not see how you can be having a problem with TS commissions??? This is what really throws another red flag up for me. How can their customer support be so out of step with their enormous marketshare?

 

Now, you are trading YM correct? Their TSW clearly states that if you are doing 300 or less contracts it is $2.13. They also publish what their commissions are if you trade higher volume.

 

I currently trade YM with IB and their bundled commission is also $2.13. This was one of the reasons that I had them in the + column in my punch list. I have no intention of closing my IB account but at least I figured that I would be getting the same commission when I do my 10 RT's each month so I can get the platform for free. I also checked with Infinity Futures last week (in fact went to their offices since I live in Chicago) and they will match the IB and TS commissions. The guys at Infinity are ex-prop traders so they have a different mindset then all the big boys. The other thing is their day margin is fantastic at $500 per contract. They push Sierra as the chart platform and so it is also one of the platforms on my list.

 

Chas

 

I know some of the unaccounted $ was prorated platform fees that they didn't tell me about up front. They aren't very good at communicating charges etc...

 

I just looked up my history. 43 trades with a total of $105.66 commish.

So $2.46 per turn, per contract. Not way off but still I don't like hidden fees and BS published prices.

 

Looking back at the execution list slippage seems to be not as bad as their charting indicated. I wonder what the issue with the charting speed has been. And my data error wasn't pleasant but it was the first time that happened. I was more upset at the persons reaction to me calling and telling me not to trade off charts. I'm going to have to call them and see what they can do for me again.

 

I'd love to see a basic statement with data fees and less jibberish so I can understand the charges.

[MC 10]

This was no TS data error, I came back from gettin my food and nearly crapped.

Insane $hit.

[Hlm 10]

"1 hour and 40 minutes of BLOOD!" ...haha, I love it. :o

 

It was an interesting move to trade/watch. The market seemed to forget about its second "wave". Shows another example as to why you should keep your assumptions and bias minimal and listen to what the market is saying.

[Sparrow 10]

For you US long term investors...do you have concern over the long term value of funds since they are based on USD which is tanking on inflation?

 

I find myself wondering what would come of all our US savings and things that are valued in USD should the USD collapse. I'd like to think they can't just evaporate but on paper they are worth less and less each day. GULP!

 

 

That's a monthly chart, It's being pinched off lower and lower so a pop is bound to happen at some point in the somewhat near future. I don't think it's going to be anything major, but maybe enough to lower oil and metals perhaps. Might be a good time to buy some gold, gold stocks or something of the sort.

 

I'm wondering if I should cash out of USD vehicles and put my money in something more globally supported like gold?

 

Input, thoughts?

 

One thing you could do is hedging yourself with a dollar index futures contract. Who knows though if the dollar will really collapse, in that case there's a problem not only for the US.

 

If that would really happen gold/precious metals/commodities would be a pretty good investment, dunno if paper gold would do it though.

 

Another thing I got from CNN actually is buying foreign stocks/bonds, if you choose the right stocks/bonds, you'll earn some more money even if the dollar doesn't tank or regains some strength.

 

Silver/gold was all the rage during the late 70's, early 80's but then came the commodities bear market and gold bottomed for a long long long time.

 

Not an easy one, maybe I'll come up with something once I have something to protect .

I don't believe in the worst case scenario, I'm thinking its hype.

[MC 10]

"1 hour and 40 minutes of BLOOD!" ...haha, I love it. :o

 

It was an interesting move to trade/watch. The market seemed to forget about its second "wave". Shows another example as to why you should keep your assumptions and bias minimal and listen to what the market is saying.

 

Yeah no doubt, I almost grabbed a short as the momo started but it wasn't a signal and I opted to try and stay on course of the plan. Then as I saw it didn't bother to come up for air I was like whooops.

 

Then I got a divergence signal and despite saying 2 trades a day I took a 3rd and ended up breaking even on the day on the loss. I'm ok with a scratch though cause I'm getting more comfortable with letting the trade do it's thing and I'll keep working till I nail my discipline.

 

No bias other than in the moment for me either, I know daytrading is the hardest thing to do till you dial it in and then IMO it's probably the safest way to trade.

 

I'm going to try and get in the chat tomorrow, It was nuts at work lately so I've had to skip out.

 

Side note, in regards to my Tradestation "slippage" I looked and got a perfect fill at market today despite the Matrix window showing it bobbled the order so I'm thinking its the DOM style order window having issues. I might have blamed TS for something that is a visual issue but not a real problem fill wise.

[MC 10]

 

Here's the thing...this appears to be net -30 point slippage on 49 trades which is probably not that bad but I don't like the limit orders they are showing.

Why, because I only do OSO bracket orders and the exits are all stop market orders not limit as indicated on the uncounted trades. So I have no way to gauge slippage on any "limit" order which seems all too convenient for Tradestation. Also they have market orders that show no stop price which I can't factor for.

 

The other dilemma is their commissions which are not what they publish as the advertised price. I almost wonder if they have so many reports and numbers floating around so they can dick people over. I can guarantee there is more slippage I can't account for and I've been ripped on the real price of commish.

 

Anyhow ya live and learn, hate to give up their nice charting but I don't trust them anymore. From the chart data error where their trade desk told me to "trade off time and sales" and not to trust charts, to the suspect commish and the slippage issues the charts just aren't worth price of admission.

[MC 10]

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/tlchat/files/7f737e6f8ddfcfc23b4fc3fcd13f10ab.jpg

YM 15 minute chart from the 18th and 19th.

 

Nice VSA, thanks to Brownsfan and Walter getting me looking outside my tick timeframe that causes me to micromanage.

[Future 10]

Nice one mci. I like to apply mp concepts first then find trade location with VSA.

[MC 10]

Nice one mci. I like to apply mp concepts first then find trade location with VSA.

 

Those levels are on there...Red, blue and green dot/dash lines.

I have the floor pivots, MP pivots and volume weighted average price as well. In backtesting them they all can and will play key level roles so I want to apply VSA at these levels. Sounds like you have a similar game plan to mine.

 

MP held up very well today.

[MC 10]

Daily chart

 

Weekly chart

 

So the red line is where I shifted 401k to stable value funds.

The green line is today where I moved back in to the market.

We'll see if I got back in to soon but I think the DJI is headed for the upper range again and either way I saved myself about 10% and got more shares in the 401k. Since I'm nowhere near retirement I'm not really worried anyhow and this is more for practice.

[MC 10]

 

Under Armor...18 mil of a 30 mil float traded hands in a tight price range.

That's grade A accumulation. Of course we know this due to the price being so low...we saw the opposite action with the same 18 mil traded at a high price back in November.

 

They distributed in the $60's and bought back "on sale" in the upper $20's...now that's how you make SICK value plays.

[MC 10]

Nobody played UA?

I posted UA on several sites and only 1 guy bought in.

Not me since I'm between brokers either.

Hope somebody made money on this puppy.

[MC 10]

 

Notice the red vertical lines where the monthly ATR (Average True Range) breaks upwards, this measures volatility. Volatility is caused by what...EMOTION and PANIC. This is where the pro's are in control and they scare and whipsaw you till you're rich or broke (usually broke). In this high ATR range, fortunes can be made or lost quickly due to the jerky, exaggerated movements of the market. If you're not experienced it's probably best to sit out and start in calmer waters or just paper trade. This is why they say you don't know $hit till you've made it through a bear (high volatility) market. Low ATR bull markets are easy to trade and most anybody can make money or at least lose minimally in those conditions. This recent action will eat most people up.

 

Let me preface this by saying THE MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS LOGICAL.

Now you can see the "logical" thing is for them to test the area where this volatility started. The blue horizontal lines indicate the price level where this high ATR began. The Y2K bear tested that level 4 times and held.

 

THIS markets action we see the blue line is also holding up at this point. This is a monthly chart so the last candle is still open for a few more days but IMO it should close above that level. We also see the fib retracement...the 38.2% was bounced off which is a healthy retracement level assuming it holds. This is why I'm not overly bearish at this point. I think with the "easy button" (as I call it) the amateur traders today can cause the panic faster than ever. Look at the rocket ATR did on this drop. I have to think the pros got the prices they wanted and will support the levels I've posted on the other chart prior (10,760ish). Again I think this because they won't trash the market while still in it and IMO they are very much still in it. Using auction mentality AND the 50% fib retracement (10,760ish), that is kind of the point of no return IMO. That breaks and all hell breaks loose since those long term green positions of many years turn to red. This would be fine if big money wasn't still in the market, they don't care about retail investors. I think they have holdings at stake, this is really the $5 trillion dollar question.

 

Has the news has crippled your ability to think for yourself? It has for many traders and general population that don't know better. Follow the news if you want to be mislead and get the inside track AFTER it's happened. It's fact...did you realize after I said we should bounce...and we bounced...then and only then did the news come out with positive hints. NOW the job numbers are up, hrmmm kind of makes you curious, no? I'm not saying I'm pro by any means, just that I know enough now to not listen to the hype. If anything use it as a BS meter to know when the market might need to be faded.

 

Now onto what "may" happen next. Anything is possible, but I expect some chop and probably some further tests of the 38.2% fib and blue line. MAYBE as low as that 50% fib line, though it would be risky for big money to let that happen. If that 50% retracement breaks I would RUN and hide from the market till the dust settles. Either scenario...dust settling to me will be something like the pink trend line where we get a breakout above of the downtrend WITH a breakdown of the ATR. Bull markets don't happen on high volatility, so when we get a lower ATR the bulls can come back out to play.

 

Hope it helps.

[MC 10]

Steps to becoming a profitable trader...

1) Read "trading in the zone" and "trade your way to financial freedom" to get your mind looking at the market correctly.

It's gotta be looked at as a probability game if you intend to have long term profit. These books will drill that into your head.

2) Start to paper trade to find your "edge" and remember to keep it simple. If you don't know...your edge is your system that tilts the odds in your favor.

3) Okay, so now you have your edge. Now back test over many months and years of data to see if your edge proves out.

This will build up your confidence in your edge assuming it will be a profitable one.

4) Forward test (paper trade) the edge on live market data on a simulator for a short time. (Ideally one that mimics fills like OEC or Ninja) Don't spend forever here, spend the time on the back testing. This step is more to cement your belief in your edge and look for inconsistencies between back testing and live data. Sometimes indicators in realtime give headfakes you don't see on backtesting so watch out for that kind of stuff.

This will build even more confidence in your edge if it will indeed be profitable.

5) If you get to this step, you're mind should be ready, your edge is proven profitable and you are very confident in its statistical probability of profit. Get in there with your money and trade what you see not what you feel.

 

You know from the books you will have to be wrong which should cause you no pain because the market can do ANYTHING at ANYTIME and you fully embrace the risk to see if your edge will pay off in this unique moment in time. You're mind is now ready to trade effortlessly.

 

You know you have proven in back and forward testing your edge is net profitable and has statistical relevance in terms of probabilities.

 

You only have left to take the big leap of faith. Put your money where your mouth is and EXECUTE.

 

Hope it helps...It sounds easy because the market should be easy. We in our minds make it difficult through using emotional energy stored in our brains.

I'm telling you guys...read "trading in the zone". 8)

[idaxtrader 10]

Very wise words I couldn't agree more