ES Trading for 9/24 + Rest Of Week

[darthtrader 10]

That profile chart you posted is very tough to interpret. I am lost looking at that. This is one reason why I like to keep it simple and just look at the current condition - for better or worse, at least it is less confusing.

 

That chart is pretty much every MP piece of information you could want. I know we talked before about our frustrations with Mind Over Markets. I think that was about a month ago, I started reading a few pages a day since then and then one day things clicked and I managed to read about 30 pages straight and actually understand it. Its like your brain is trying to download an entire different mindset so I think it just takes some time to set in. You might want to try doing that, just read one idea at a time and think about. I see now the problem with that book is it is SO information dense its almost absurd.

[darthtrader 10]

I just want to tell you guys how much I enjoyed/learned from this thread, hopefully this becomes a running theme.

I still have never traded a futures contract with real money. The first time I read the New Market Wizards and the interview with Al Weis, with him saying he spent 4 years studying commodity charts before trading, I found my hero. I actually haven't made a real money trade since april when i tried to short amazon. I got crushed, went back to the drawing board and thats when I found this site searching for market profile and tradestation on google.

Things clicked with Dalton last weekend, then seeing this thread I reinstalled the think or swim paper trader on monday and went 7 for 9 on my paper trades for the week, up $2150 on the 100k paper account. This week was the first time I felt like I actually could hear what the market was saying, incredible feeling after 2 years of being obsessed with this stuff night and day.I also found my style this week, VWAP/market stats, MP and TICK. Nothing else exists to me anymore.

I would like to start contributing to these threads, but if I say something you totally think is wrong, please don't hesitate to blast my ideas. I've been pretty hungry to learn the markets for 2 years but now im starved.

 

nate

[Dogpile 10]

Here is my high level structure for the day -- Friday.

 

Given Thursdays low-volume, narrow range day -- the bias coming into Friday was tricky. Note we made an 'excess low' on 9/25 and then 2 up days. So usually, you would look for a 'sell short day'. But Thursdays action was NR7 and at the close, looked like maybe we were coming into Friday for an expansion move up. A gap up would look like a potential exhaustion gap after nearly 3 days of 'up'... Instead, the market gapped down back into Fridays range. I then attempted another break up in the morning but this was a final bull trap and the market traded hard back down. I had orders to short but couldn't get filled as the bottom fell out.

 

Ultimately, we formed a 'ABC up' pattern on a bearish day (VWAP<VWAP[1]) -- which is a short-pattern. Finally, we got a break lower and a bear flag formed. This time, it carried down to 33.00 -- about ~9 pts below the 1542.00 area of balance.

 

The volume distribution was fat for a down day -- indicating there were buyers out there. It was last day of the quarter so that was part of it most likely.