ES Trading for 9/24 + Rest Of Week

[ant 10]

My bias is also to go long because the ES is trading above the high volume area and it starting to look like the ES started an up auction on 9/25. The high volume area is going to attract price like a magnet and then I will monitor volume. I think this market will require heavy volume to get through the high volume area in the composite profile and yesterday's profile. I will be looking for a long in yesterday's value area. I also agree with a trade destination of the selling tail of 9/19.

 

By the way, according to the squawk box, paper is selling right now.

[TinGull 10]

With the long bias you guys talk about...I get a little worried about it as it seems to be losing some steam. Here's a composite profile for the past 10 days, broken into 2 5-day profiles.

 

 

Seems as though price is starting to lose some steam and *could* come down a bit before powering higher. While I'll still be on the long side of things mostly...I'll be doing so with some caution.

[ant 10]

While I'll still be on the long side of things mostly...I'll be doing so with some caution.

 

Me too, the market is still offered - there are still paper sellers.

[Dogpile 10]

I mentioned this last night and actually executed something I said --

 

<<Thus, I am now using the approach of just doing multiple orders and averaging-in at a good level. If the pattern goes against you, you only have a small position so you don't get hurt and if it really goes hard against you -- you can pause further purchases a little bit and ride out the shakeout move without going too far into the red -- if only 1/2 on, seeing the minus dollar amount in the bottom of the Tradestation screen isn't so bad.... If the pattern goes in your favor, you get a worse level but you do get something on instead of potentially missing the entire move while waiting for your limit order to fill -- and you can always average-up or buy a little YM or ER2 if they haven't moved yet. This is my current thinking anyway.>>

 

Together with long bias, allowed a nice start to day. Held on too long cause didn't want to miss a potential bullish day. Had limit orders higher that obviously didn't fill.

 

Note 40k + contracts at 41.75 with price there too and VWAP near-by... Market is balancing.

 

While a balance-break is a 'go-with' -- note that we have built successively higher balancings -- the trend is still up.

[TinGull 10]

dogpile, at what point in the day are you starting to accumulate your volume information? I have the HVN for todays trade at 1541.00. Not tooo far off, but was just curious.

[ant 10]

Dogpile, I really like that scale-in approach so I have a few questions...

 

1. How far apart are your scale-ins?
   
2. Typically, where is your stop for each position?
   
3. How many times would you consider scaling in?
   
4. How do you adjust your stops once you have taken your full position?
   

As you already mentioned, the drawback, which I do not consider to be trivial, is that when your position moves in your favor almost immediately, you're guaranteed to have your smallest position on. This seems like a good strategy for someone who doesn't like to take too much heat on trades. I still like it, but need to consider the drawback and determine which is the lesser of two evils.

[Dogpile 10]

ES.D session starts 9:30am start...

[Dogpile 10]

<<when your position moves in your favor almost immediately, you're guaranteed to have your smallest position on. >>

 

I have sometimes not been getting filled so small position is better than no position

 

<<How far apart are your scale-ins? >>

 

I play this by feel... I just have a set number of contracts I want to buy and generally watch the tick countdown function. I am trying to do limit orders at the 'last trade price' every 200 ticks or so until I have a full position.. if the action starts moving hard against me, I get better prices. If it starts moving up, I get worse prices. In the end, it will limit losses and its unclear if it really hurts me because it is still better to have a small position on than those times when you get nothing on -- the other day I missed 7-9 points because missed my limit order by a single tick.

 

 

<<Typically, where is your stop for each position?>>

 

I have a hard stop that I don't think should be hit. If price moves down towards that, I am buying not far above my stop level.

 

<<How many times would you consider scaling in?

 

3-4 times.

 

<<How do you adjust your stops once you have taken your full position?>>

 

stop doesn't change, I just update the number of contracts that I currently have in the stop order.

 

<<This seems like a good strategy for someone who doesn't like to take too much heat on trades.>>

 

well, for me personally, I can take the heat if I know I have a good averaged-in price. I have trouble psychologically if my initial entry was 2 minutes off and that was a 6 tick difference.

 

Might not be best for someone else, for me -- it works since I am equally frustrated about missing a trade when my limit isn't hit and the trade ends up working versus the frustration of entering and just stopping out...

[waveslider 10]

Dog/Ant

Here's a trick that works for me... For multiple entries try fading your first entry, second entry on breakout (more confirmation). The break out should be above your fade entry. If your fade entry doesn't work (keeps blowing the wrong way) set exit at breakeven.

[ant 10]

Thanks. Much appreciated.

[ant 10]

Dog/Ant

Here's a trick that works for me... For multiple entries try fading your first entry, second entry on breakout (more confirmation). The break out should be above your fade entry. If your fade entry doesn't work (keeps blowing the wrong way) set exit at breakeven.

 

Waveslider, I'm not sure I completely follow. Can you give a brief example when time permits? Thanks.

[darthtrader 10]

is this pretty typical action after a Neutral-Center Day?

Doesnt seem like price has enough momentum to break out of that huge volume area.

anyone take a long around 11:30 at 1537 when it couldn't break the volume area? I didn't notice that until looking at the chart in hindsite.

Doesn't seem like there is much to do here besides fade the extremes between 1536 and 1544 or wait for the breakout.

Since 12:30 it doesnt look like the market could possibly be more in balance. this is kind of comic.

[ant 10]

Here is the trade I am hoping for this afternoon... A trade down to the lower trendline around 1536.50-1537 to draw in some shorts and then go long there for hopefully a breakout of this 6 pt range to the upside. The lower trendline would still be in yesterday's value area which will allow me to keep a long bias. Having learned the hardway, the market tends to do things that are painful for most traders. Breaking out to the upside from here would not trap anyone, IMO, unless it traps the longs (but that goes against my long bias). Thought I would throw this out there just because I'm bored.

 

[ant 10]

Darth, I took a long in the 1538 area twice.

[TinGull 10]

dogpile or ant...would either of you mind lending out a link to this "taylor" information you talk about?

 

Thanks!

[Dogpile 10]

George Taylor was a grains (commodity) trader who wrote a book on the nature of buying/selling pressure in the market (all markets). His book is extremely painful to read. The better read are a few chapters out of 'Street Smarts' by Rashke and Connors -- Chapter 7 & Chapter 8.

 

Basic guideline is that after 2 down days, you look for an up day. After 2-3 up days, you look for a down day. After a run of 5-6 straight up days and then a down day, this sets up a great buy day (called a 'Pinball Buy' -- chapter 8). There are some other nuances to it -- ie, the Taylor 'count' gets screwed up if you have a bunch of narrow, nothing type of days.

 

all of this is just a guideline and you need to be able to decide if market action is confirming the Taylor guideline or not. It works best in a nice choppy market. The most important concept to me is just to expect a choppy market most of the time. Steady trending action does happen, but you can adjust on the fly to this. More often, expect the market to go 2-3 up then 2 down.

 

The other key conccept is to look for morning reversals -- consistent with Ants other thread about how a days high or low is often made in the early morning.

 

Taylor also had all these special situations which need to be interpreted. This is very complex and so its better to talk about recent price action and just label it.

 

Note we had a morning swing low put in on 9/25. this represents a buy day. Now we have built higher value for 2 days since that day. Tomorrow is a 'sell short day' per Taylor. But this just means that the market might make its high in the morning session and this could be from much higher levels if we gap up.

 

Today was also a big coil day so don't read too much into the Taylor count - unless we gap up a lot -- and then have to consider the odds higher of an 'exhaustion gap' after already being up a bunch of days in a row. Adding to the complexity of the current situation is that tomorrow is the last day of the quarter.

[TinGull 10]

Very interesting. Thanks for that info!

 

Makes sense that tomorrow *could* be a sell short day. It really seems like the market has stalled out. Consolidation is one thing, but all of these balanced profiles over the last 7 trading days is craziness to me.

 

 

I would think if there's a push into the top of this range around that selling tail on 9/19 that the sellers should present themselves. From a TPO count perspective, the "sellers" did have the upper hand in todays action as well, which could lead to some selling tomorrow. Over-all, I'm exhausted from this non-action. For my setups I need volume to be there, and I haven't been seeing what I need from the markets and haven't been able to put my best foot forward. Just hoping we get some wild action at some point in the near term.

[Dogpile 10]

<<Over-all, I'm exhausted from this non-action. >>

 

I agree, today was brutal -- no volume and narrow range.

 

That profile chart you posted is very tough to interpret. I am lost looking at that. This is one reason why I like to keep it simple and just look at the current condition - for better or worse, at least it is less confusing. The most recent pattern shows me a Head & Shoulder bottom. This is bullish and we are grinding up off of that.

 

This is one of those markets that keeps inviting shorts in and then running them over. The action looks bad enough to tempt you to short.

 

Then again, it was tough to be long today. Just a very difficult trading envornment today. We did make an attempt down and then formed a higher low off that. The trend is still up.

[TinGull 10]

That profile chart you posted is very tough to interpret. I am lost looking at that. This is one reason why I like to keep it simple and just look at the current condition - for better or worse, at least it is less confusing.

 

Exactly my point. I've got no idea how to trade this environment successfully. I feel like I'm shooting from the hip with it during the last 2 weeks. Very tough trading IMO.

[ant 10]

I would think if there's a push into the top of this range around that selling tail on 9/19 that the sellers should present themselves.

 

My thoughts exactly. My plan would be to stay long until we revisit that selling tail at the bracket high or until we trade on the other side of the high volume area (see chart). Until it reaches the upper extreme, I would buy pullbacks into value areas and buying tails and look to get 2-3 points out of the trades, which is what the market appears to be offering. If the ES trades up to the selling tail, I would most likely fade it the first time. However, I am also aware of the upper limit of a larger bracket (i.e., the high at 1579) right above the market which is what the market may be gunning for.

 

I agree, today was brutal -- no volume and narrow range.

 

This sums it up perfectly. The low volume and the narrow range is what made this market so difficult to trade today and some of the previous days too. I don't mind trading ranges, in fact, I fade support/resistance a lot more than I trade pullbacks (trend trading) because balance is the market condition about 70% of the time, but give me a wider range that I could sink my teeth into and so that I can justify the risk of being in a trade. This internal trend within the bracket is definitely a grind.

 

It's hard for me to envision this market making new highs from where we currently stand. This move above the previous bracket is just not convincing enough, but I'm getting ahead of myself.

[Dogpile 10]

Tin, here are some Taylor set-ups for last few weeks/months. I have added a few other things as well -- this isn't all Taylor stuff.

 

The 'coil indicator' at the bottom of the page just triggers when 3 closes are near each other -- this indicates a potential trending move is coming so watch for range expansion off opening price. Yesterday was also a NR7 so we are in a super-coil. The 2-period ROC indicator shows a potential sell short day -- but this is not a great signal, IMO. Not right after a coil anyway. There are good, bad and Neutral Taylor signals -- todays isn't so good b/c we have been in a coil so the Taylor count is screwed up.

[TinGull 10]

Wow, some intense stuff there. Thanks for the information, I really appreciate it

[Dogpile 10]

maybe you can give me a primer on VSA Tin if we stay in this low-volume coil today... is there a good book on this?

[TinGull 10]

Check your mail

[darthtrader 10]

Maybe I can add something to this discussion instead of just leaching information off you guys.

I'm thinking that $tick is probly something interesting to watch in this type of environment.

Yesterday in order for the market to drive down to the bottom of the composite high volume area around 11:30(the long that Ant said he took and I asked about) you had the monster $tick reading for the day on the low side. I would think if it took that much fire power to drive the market down to that area, the chamber is basically empty and it might be a smart trade then to fade the $tick extreme. Same thing just happend now with price being driven down into that area again. $tick seems to be somewhat useless in a trending market but I think its something to keep an eye on in a bracketted market.

Also, this open today was pretty straight up Open-Test-Drive wasn't it? That didn't register fast enough in my head, tried to short at 1543 but the market left me in the dust without a fill.