ES Trading for 9/24 + Rest Of Week

[TinGull 10]

This is also known as Weinstein Analysis where the market travels in 4 phases. Phase 1 is an accumulation phase, 2 is an upward trending phase, 3 is a consolidation around the stopping price and 4 is a distribution phase.

[Dogpile 10]

regarding this morning.

 

Can see in the 'final volume distribution' I posted last night (won't re-post here) that after the 'excess low' made yesterday, the market formed a symmetrical distribution (balance) with the PVP/VWAP being 1526.75. The market has now run up ~10 pts to 36.75 in another overnight gap.

 

Thus, we have bad short-term location to be long. But this gap appears like it could be start of a 'up-auction.' I will look for a 'ABC down' to get long. First thought is to see if support comes in around 1533 area (fibonacci support level). We do know that 38-42 is a very high volume zone and 38.25 was a big PVP from 9/20. So I would expect the market to not run straight through that. But since this looks like we may be coming out of a daily bull flag and we will eventually get a 15-min First Cross buy, I will hope we get a nice spot to get long.

[ant 10]

This is also known as Weinstein Analysis where the market travels in 4 phases. Phase 1 is an accumulation phase, 2 is an upward trending phase, 3 is a consolidation around the stopping price and 4 is a distribution phase.

 

Yeah, Weinstein's book is one of the best I've read.

[TinGull 10]

 

That bull flag on the 5min here. Hitting the top of the channel so far and not pushing through it. Just praying its not gonna be another slow day....fingers are crossed.

[darthtrader 10]

Steenbarger posted a pretty interesting analysis on the opening range break for this morning:

 

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/09/opening-range-breakouts-false-and-real.html

 

dogpile,

One thing that is interesting about Marc Fischers ORB system is he says in his book that the more people who use it the better it will work. So it could possibly be a good thing that everyone knows about the ORB.

 

So far today looks like another terrible trade location day to me, the after market really messed things up.

[Dogpile 10]

<<One thing that is interesting about Marc Fischers ORB system is he says in his book that the more people who use it the better it will work. >>

 

better strategy might be to scalp the opposite direction after everyone fills

[Dogpile 10]

well, ABC down worked well -- this pattern gives you good location and with the primary trend.

 

Now we appear to be in a potential 5th wave of an elliott cycle up... This goes against the theme of the day so not trading this yet. A good pattern for late in the day to play this would be a lower high, which would then also be a Head & Shoulder top formation.

[ant 10]

Thus far, the ES traded up to the high volume area and then reversed and is still working it's way down. Next stop... yesterday's value area.

[Dogpile 10]

This pattern is my absolute favorite LBR pattern: The 15-Min First Cross Buy.

 

I use slightly different indicators than LBR does simply because I think stochastics work better than the 3/10 'fast line'.

 

For those unaware, the 3/10/16 oscillator is simply the difference between the 3-period and 10-period Simple Moving Averages. It gauges momentum. The 'Slow Line' is the 16 period moving average of the 3/10 difference. The slope of the Slow Line effectively shows the TREND of the momentum while the 3/10 'fast line' measures the strength of the most recent price push.

 

I like the 5-period stochastics instead of the fast line because it reacts to current conditions much more quickly than a Moving Average does. You just want to find a spot to buy when the Stochastic gets oversold while the trend of the momentum has just flipped up (crossed up through zero). The move up through zero from below is the filter, the stochastics correcting down is the trigger.

 

Today was a good example. You also had 'ABC' structure and price pulled back right into Fibonnaci support so this was like a 'triple buy'...

 

The nice thing about this set-up, which doesn't occur very often -- maybe once a week -- is that it often coincides with the 2-3 day Taylor type of rhytmic buying/selling pressure. ie, 2-3 up days then 2 down days, then a First Cross Buy -- repeat.

[ant 10]

As of my last post around 2pm EST, the ES was completing a down auction after bouncing off of the high volume area at 1538-1541. It was not clear to me at that time how low the market would trade, but yesterday's range and value area was right below the market. The ES did trade very slightly into yesterday's range and bounced.

 

A couple of clues in the market structure, at that time, hinted at potentially re-visiting today's high at 1540.25. The two clues came from the day type and the lack of excess at the high. First, the day type that had formed was a Neutral Day. A Neutral Day is a two timeframe market where sellers and buyers take control at the day's extremes and auction the market in the opposite direction. This type of day encounters range extension above and below the initial balance. When the market was trading near its lows around 2pm, it was expected that buyers would enter the market. Secondly, at 2pm when the ES was in a down auction, there was no selling tail at the day's high which indicated less selling conviction (poor daytime high). Once the ES traded through the day's POC, it was expected that a new high would be set. Again, the high volume area provided resistance and the ES proceeded to trade to the middle of the distribution making the day type a Neutral-Center Day. Attempted direction is not clear, but the day's profile still lacks a selling tail. It's plausible that the ES will trade back up and maybe take out the high volume area the next time. I'll wait until the market tips its hand before establishing a bias. However, I will note key reference areas for tomorrow's trading session. The chart below contains the TPO chart for the discussion above.

 

 

The chart below shows the composite profile with today's trading for reference.

 

 

As most of you know, I am almost a pure Market Profile trader because auction market theory is what really gives me the confidence to "pull the trigger" on trades. Although indicators do provide me with confirmation some times, I could never trade based solely on them. I am curious if others find this type of market analysis of interest. If there isn't that much interest, I can be less verbose and just provide a brief summary of my analysis.

[TinGull 10]

I am absolutely enthralled with this kind of analysis. This is the kind of stuff that makes me feel like I'm realllllllly stupid and slow and like I don't know left from right. Makes me wanna work harder to understand it all.

Thanks Ant!

[ant 10]

Dogpile, I like your twist on the First Cross trade with the Stochastics and the way you line it up with the Taylor rhythm. Very logical. By the way, do you not like the First Cross Sell trade?

[ant 10]

This is the kind of stuff that makes me feel like I'm realllllllly stupid and slow and like I don't know left from right.

 

Sorry TinGull, but I don't believe that for a second. Your other posts show just how sharp you are!

[Dogpile 10]

<<do you not like the First Cross Sell trade?>>

 

First Cross Sell can be a monster trade but it doesn't seem to be quite as reliable as the FC Buy. First Cross Buy is like my 'go-to' trade which I bow-down and worship. The First Cross Sell seems to often just peter out. Or it coils first. Today the FC Buy kind of coiled a bit first too for that matter. I find both are good trades -- especially if you have, like today, an unfilled gap.

[ant 10]

Thanks for the explanation. I bet that by filtering that trade using the Taylor rhythm, you also improve its win statistics to something higher than 66% (without filters).

[Dogpile 10]

<<I am curious if others find this type of market analysis of interest.>>

 

Ant, I am very interested. Do whatever you can do that will make it sustainable. Don't write too much if it feels like it takes forever but definitely do it if it helps you because I find that explaining it and methodically posting this stuff forces me to think thoroughly through it and even sometimes see a few things I might instead overlook. I also can go back and see what I was thinking a few days ago when we visited a certain level. Moreover, crossing it with your work definitely helps me with my own work.

 

Those charts are great. Having read Dalton, I can follow your explanations well.

 

I find that there is some magic when combining market profile logic with price patter set-ups. The market profile helps hugely in giving me confidence in taking a trade -- whereas a price pattern (with or without an indicator) helps cross-check the profile. When they come together in unison, its like magic -- very high win rate. When the are saying opposite things, its best to exit or not trade. ie, today -- I was long in the afternoon on a buy-anti and really thought we were set for a trending move up and bust out of this zone -- volume was better than yesterday and you had a good shakeout mid-day to set-up a squeeze. It did squeeze and I trimmed but didn't exit the entire position because the indicators made momentum highs. I had orders to exit above the price highs assuming the next push would bring a momentum divergence. But profile said to exit based on price. I instead gave back multiple points as I got caught in a classic bull trap -- where a price high is made at same time as momentum high rather than the usual -- where momentum precedes price. I still made a few points on the balance but I left a bunch on the table.

[Dogpile 10]

<<I bet that by filtering that trade using the Taylor rhythm, you also improve its win statistics to something higher than 66% (without filters).>>

 

You know the Taylor count the day before -- so you go to bed with a plan --- then you wake up and see a gap up you can instantly think, First Cross Is a Buy, First Cross Is a Buy, First Cross Is a Buy.

[ant 10]

Ant, I am very interested. Do whatever you can do that will make it sustainable. Don't write too much if it feels like it takes forever but definitely do it if it helps you because I find that explaining it and methodically posting this stuff forces me to think thoroughly through it and even sometimes see a few things I might instead overlook. I also can go back and see what I was thinking a few days ago when we visited a certain level. Moreover, crossing it with your work definitely helps me with my own work.

 

Those charts are great. Having read Dalton, I can follow your explanations well.

 

Thanks for the feedback. Writing for me is not a problem at all. In fact, I could go on and on and on... I must admit that posting my analysis publicly has helped my trading more than I expected. As you said, it helps crystallize my thinking since I'm putting "pen to paper," so to speak, and want other knowledgeable traders to understand my rationale for my market position.

 

I find that there is some magic when combining market profile logic with price patter set-ups. The market profile helps hugely in giving me confidence in taking a trade -- whereas a price pattern (with or without an indicator) helps cross-check the profile...

 

I agree with you here too Dogpile. IMO, the key is to first apply market logic and then identify the appropriate setups. It's this part of the trading process that I wouldn't mind having a more mechanical approach. My only requirement is that my entry/exit is not so delayed that I miss most of the move because of a mechanical approach. I want to be as fast as "price" when making trading decisions, theoretically.

 

From posts I've read on trading forums, it's obvious that most new traders, even experienced traders, skip the part where they apply logic and think for themselves, and jump right into looking for patterns/setups without considering context. I can't imagine that that would work well over the long term.

[darthtrader 10]

I am curious if others find this type of market analysis of interest.

 

without question! really this a huge help with currently reading Dalton, im sure people will find this stuff helpfull a year from now too if they read the archives. The best thing is that its MP/Dalton concepts applied to the current market that we all have a feel for and are familiar with what is going on as opposed to january beans in 1986, should provide alot more meaning to the concepts.

[Dogpile 10]

<<My only requirement is that my entry/exit is not so delayed that I miss most of the move because of a mechanical approach. >>

 

This has definitely been an issue I have gone around and around on. Right now, I am in the 'average-in' over a few 400 tick bars camp. ie, you see a pattern in a good profile location and you feel like its a buy. You want to control risk but you also don't want to miss your entry by a tick and miss out on a 6 pt move -- something I have done multiple times lately. Thus, I am now using the approach of just doing multiple orders and averaging-in at a good level. If the pattern goes against you, you only have a small position so you don't get hurt and if it really goes hard against you -- you can pause further purchases a little bit and ride out the shakeout move without going too far into the red -- if only 1/2 on, seeing the minus dollar amount in the bottom of the Tradestation screen isn't so bad.... If the pattern goes in your favor, you get a worse level but you do get something on instead of potentially missing the entire move while waiting for your limit order to fill -- and you can always average-up or buy a little YM or ER2 if they haven't moved yet. This is my current thinking anyway.

[Blu-Ray 10]

I am curious if others find this type of market analysis of interest.

 

Absolutely. These threads are true Gems, I love your analysis using the composite profile and indentifying the high and low volume areas.

 

Appreciation also has to be given to Dogpile, as together with Ant, you both seem to be on the same wavelength and when you independantly give your thoughts in real time, they both match up.

 

As I said in last weeks thread, I only trade the DAX, but your analysis on the ES really helps me, as what to look for when studying the profile of the DAX.

 

Keep up the Great work

 

 

Thanks

 

Blu-Ray

[TinGull 10]

Sorry TinGull, but I don't believe that for a second. Your other posts show just how sharp you are!

 

HA! Thanks Ant. You just make me wanna work harder, that's all

[TinGull 10]

Also, wanted to note....ES was stuck between 2 POC's yesterday. The POC from 9/19 and from 9/25. Price is awfully close to the 9/19 POC this morning, and oughtta give for some interesting action around that spot.

 

[Dogpile 10]

Market continues to grind higher, building sequentially higher PVP's and VWAPs. This has happened amid good mid-day shakeouts -- which allows the trend to continue. Also, note the potential Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern that has developed as of yesterday.

 

There is no Taylor sell bias today -- today is an in-between day. Gap up means we will begin building higher value. My bias is long for today but we face resistance of the 'excess high' from 9/19 above 1546.00 and into the 1552.00 level.

 

 

Yesterday showed better volume than previous day and built higher value. This is where an upside bias makes sense. The volume distribution does not suggest continuation. If this same volume distribution were to occur on a a down day, I would be looking for a reversal. But this is where up markets and down markets differ. Up markets can grind up just like its doing. Down markets tend to just move quickly and so... In general, if a market is grinding up, stay with it. In general, if a market is grinding down (having trouble going down and printing large volume bars -- indicating buyers), look for an upside reversal. This is just my opinion and I would look for others to comment on such. I say this because it can be easy to do too many short-side trades in this environment -- believe me, I speak from experience on this. Just be extra selective on the short-side and be a little more patient on the long-side for now.

[TinGull 10]

In general, if a market is grinding down (having trouble going down and printing large volume bars -- indicating buyers), look for an upside reversal. This is just my opinion and I would look for others to comment on such.

 

What you speak of here is what VSA is all about.