Crude Oil Candlestick Analysis

[trader273 10]

OK, well I hope you guys still go on with this type of analysis on all different types of markets and time frames. I'm outta here. Too many vendors and people pimping vendors sh*t, it's not worth it any more. If I wanted that I'll just go to ET. Too bad because this forum was a nice change of pace. Oh well. Good trading to all!

[Sparrow 10]

Thanks for all the great contributions trader273.

I only had a look at a few threads on ET and never intended to stay there, just too much noise. The short time i've been here has been pretty interesting and i haven't seen any flame wars until now. To me it seems to be just a minor nuisance.

Hope you'll change your mind, but it's your decision.

 

Stay long(except for crude) and strong

[james_gsx 16]

Well unfortunately we lost a member, that's too bad but I would like to keep this thread going.

 

On the weekly chart gold is still going higher and still showing plenty of strength. We had a great opportunity to go long a few weeks ago and show no reason to exit the trade yet. I still have my target of $86 - but I do expect a dip or two before it gets there.

[trader273 10]

Well I stopped by and I saw the thread about Trex and people like that no longer wanted here, so I'm more the happy to post here and try to help each other. Just cant stand vendors who claim they are the best thing in the world, yet couldn't prove it at all . Anyways....lets take a look at crude.

 

Nothing is really that different in the daily or weekly, so lets take a look at the 60 minute. This smaller timeframe might give us a clear view of whats going on. Looks like it is stuck in a range. Seems like there is a lot of resistance building on the 60 minute, but likewise there is some support building. Looks like it cant sustain any prices above the 81.20 level. If we can get a good close over that level ( and the daily and weekly hold up) we could be in for another move up. However, if sellers continue to come in and these levels are rejected some more, the bears could take control. However, the main level to watch for the downside, is a close below the 78.50ish level.

 

So the 60 could provide some indication, but I think its prudent to wait for at least the daily, if not the weekly.

 

[james_gsx 16]

On the daily we had an evening start to take note of the other day. Today it looks like a possible hammer position. Switching over to the weekly we may have a spinning top forming. But I want to wait until the end of Friday before making any sort of decisions based off the weekly chart.

 

I view crude as more of a position trade, so I have been debating if I should pay attention the daily anymore or if I should just focus on the monthly/weekly chart.

[trader273 10]

Updated daily chart as of 10-01-07

[trader273 10]

As goes crude oil, goes Heating oil. Or is it as goes heating oil goes Crude oil???

 

[trader273 10]

Keeping with the energy theme, here is the natural gas daily chart:

 

[ptop 10]

Quick question, what do you guys use to capture screen shots like these?

 

 

Thanks

[brownsfan019 17]

Quick question, what do you guys use to capture screen shots like these?

 

 

Thanks

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f18/free-snagit-7-a-2170.html

[MC 10]

 

Crude at an all time high, but its diverging and headed south.

Gasoline in a downtrend with nothing diverging yet.

 

Should be interesting, the gap needs to close and the path of least resistance is down. I'm unsure what this will do to the overall market conditions. I know this is not candlesticks but thought it was an interesting comparison.

 

Any comments or input?

[trader273 10]

Ok, time to put these theories to the test. Had a nice move back to the major support area and formed a nice hammer. Enclosed is my trade.

 

[james_gsx 16]

Looks nice a trade, good luck. Are you going to exit the whole trade when it hits the target, or will you scale out then exit on a bearish candle?

[trader273 10]

I would say to take a good portion off at the profit objective zone, maybe something like 2/3, and let 1/3 run. But if you look at the other trades, by the time a reversal came you gave back a lot of profit. So I'd be more comfortable taking most, if not all, at the profit objective zone. I guess it depends on what each trader is most comfortable with.

 

Also, entering on a daily chart is more of an aggressive move. Waiting for the weekly would have been the most prudent thing to do, but aggressiveness is not always a bad thing.

 

I'll post a chart after the close to see where this trade is at. As of 12:27 CL is currently trading at 80.51, which represents a 23cent profit ( $230/ct). From a quick look, it appears price came down to the major support level and go rejected yet again. So it looks like this level is holding up.

[trader273 10]

Nice little run-up on oil today. Probably go to a lower time-frame to find a new stop. But nonetheless, here is a picture with updates.

 

[trader273 10]

Here is the heating oil chart before and after.

 

[trader273 10]

And here is natural gas before and after. Its amazing people say candle do not work. Maybe its the operator and not the candles:cool:

 

[trader273 10]

Result:

[trader273 10]

Support level held up, produced another buy.

 

[trader273 10]

Update:

Went to the resistance level exactly. Looking to see if it will break, if not I'm going to look for a short. Taking partial profits at these levels though.

 

[garp 10]

Yes, I'm reading your thread. Many thanks.

[trader273 10]

Ok, just want to make sure someone is. Otherwise, whats the point.

[trader273 10]

Buy working tremendously well.

 

Here is a 15-minute chart:

[garp 10]

Trader 273, what is your price target for longs on CL. It seems to me that we are very close to it. Shall we wait for another 50 cents? For me its right time to go short within 15-60 minutes. I'll make the effort:helloooo:

[trader273 10]

First Profit objective was around the $84. That is where the majority of the contracts came off, now I have a trail stop to try and catch a bigger move. I'm not looking for a short at all at these levels. Ill consider a short if price retraces these highs in the next coming days and then goes back to that level (resistance now). My hope is that price will come back to around the $79 level for another buy. But, now holding a only about 1/3 cts long with a stop around just below $84.