Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

james_gsx

What went wrong here?

Recommended Posts

Alright, my first trade was profitable with a 2.50 ES gain. My second trade was a mistake by me, and I saw what I did wrong and lost 1.00. My third and 4th trades were basically break even since I saw my entry points were bad and immediately got out.

 

This trade bothers me though, not sure what I did wrong. You'll see we had a spinning top (I think?) then confirmation after that, I went short on the 2nd red candle at 1452.75 where price stood at a standstill for some time. I got stopped out at 1454 essentially wiping out my gains for the day. I'm wondering if I saw the chart right, and it just didn't work out or if I did something wrong?

5aa70dfe8a267_estrade3sep10th.jpg.f7538f568df36423025e8219745b708b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I figured it out, I saw the top but forgot that a reversal doesn't always mean a trend will reverse. We were at the S1 midpoint where we typically see consolidation - I should have waited for a break away from that point.

 

Also on the 15min chart I was going against the major trend, and didn't have enough confirmation of the spinning top. Note that at the time of the trade, that big wick on the current candle wasn't there.

5aa70dfe90c7b_estrade3wrongsep10th.jpg.c59fa7019b6da2ea7ea3d220e08ac756.jpg

5aa70dfe96935_estrade15minwrongsep10th.jpg.e651f75f688319dcb0b1c45f03ed0f4c.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Alright, my first trade was profitable with a 2.50 ES gain. My second trade was a mistake by me, and I saw what I did wrong and lost 1.00. My third and 4th trades were basically break even since I saw my entry points were bad and immediately got out.

 

This trade bothers me though, not sure what I did wrong. You'll see we had a spinning top (I think?) then confirmation after that, I went short on the 2nd red candle at 1452.75 where price stood at a standstill for some time. I got stopped out at 1454 essentially wiping out my gains for the day. I'm wondering if I saw the chart right, and it just didn't work out or if I did something wrong?

 

It's hard to follow you here because you show a spinning top that's annotated on your chart soon after 7:30am.

 

Yet, you said you went short after that on the 2nd red candle.

 

However, you have annotations about going show all the way over on the right side of the chart between 11:30am - 12:30pm as if that's where you went short at???

 

What time did you short Emini ES???

 

Regardless, there's a old saying in trading...

 

Don't let a profitable trade turn into a losing trade.

 

Anyways, one of the key aspects of Japanese Candlesticks is the trade management after entry.

 

That leads me into this question...

 

What needs to happen in your trade to prompt you to go to +1 tick trailing stop to pay for the trade if the trailing stop is hit in comparison to a true breakeven trade that's really a losing trade once you add in commission costs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe I didn't clarify it probably, sorry. When I get home I'll annotate it some more to make it easier to read and I'll list where I went short and all of that. I never let a winning trade go bad though. I let a winning day go bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

James,

Couple things:

 

1) First, you have to remember that candle patterns WILL fail and you should EXPECT them to throughout the day. If they were bulletproof, everyone would use them. ;)

 

2) If you can better annotate the charts, that would help as I am a tad confused on exact entries, exits, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully this will make more sense.

 

Went short at 12:42 MT at 1452.75

 

I saw a potential top on the 5 minute chart, the second red candle you see was where I went short as I viewed it as confirmation. Shortly after the tape slowed, and price went higher where I eventually got out at 1454.00 for a 1.25 ES loss.

5aa70dff20f40_tlestrade3sep10th.jpg.b0df7d993f750ec91b625ebe8d7a6fbc.jpg

5aa70dff25c71_estrade15minwrongsep10th.jpg.908c77a7161f3d2d461f7eadac245320.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hopefully this will make more sense.

 

Went short at 12:42 MT at 1452.75

 

I saw a potential top on the 5 minute chart, the second red candle you see was where I went short as I viewed it as confirmation. Shortly after the tape slowed, and price went higher where I eventually got out at 1454.00 for a 1.25 ES loss.

 

Hi James,

 

Thanks for the clarification.

 

Taking a second look at the price action of your entry...there's no valid candlestick pattern to prompt a trade entry.

 

However, I do see two consecutive Hanging Man (Hangman) candlestick lines but the low price of the first Hangman line (green) failed to test the mid-body range of the prior candlestick line.

 

The second Hangman line (red) did not close > close of the prior Hangman (green).

 

Also, the best Hangman Lines to trade are the ones involved in Close of Dark Hangman (red) > Close of the prior White Line (green) or Open of White Hangman (green) > Close of the prior White Line (green) or Open of the prior Dark Line (red).

 

Simply, it's involved as a GAP strategy which also implies it's one of those particular candlestick price action that's mainly suitable for higher chart frames.

 

Yet, as I hinted above, I also like to see the low of the Hangman test the mid-body price area of the prior candlestick line (preferrably a wide range body line) especially when the prior candlestick line is not a Hangman to tell me that the price rise is showing true signs of exhaustion (profit taking occurring) in comparison to when existing Longs sitting (not taking profits) in their positions waiting for new buyers to show up to take it higher...

 

Especially in price action where the Hangman is involved in a price action that's acting like a higher high in comparison to the prior swing point.

 

Last of all, my favorite Hangman variation involves price action where its a lower high in comparison to the prior swing point.

 

This type of price action also makes it much easier to manage a losing trade if the trade breaks to the upside prior to the stop/loss being hit via allowing me to look for position reversing (reversing the trade from a short into a long) opportunity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi James,

 

from my own failures I learned that - specially if you are not a veteran - it's the best way to trade with the trend.

 

On that day we were in a minor uptrend and because of that maybe a short would not be the best choice.

 

Of course this is very subjective and I have no idea how you trade. I for myself stopped trading live at the moment, I paper trade only.

 

The main reason why i reply to your post is that I recently found a thread which could be helpfull. For me it was a good read.

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=99283&highlight=volume+analysis

 

All the best

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.