Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Sparrow

Behavior of AUD or EUR futures today(05 sep)

Recommended Posts

Hi guys, I really like your forum and I get a lot of good ideas here.

 

As a newbie trader I still got a lot to learn but I've got a few months of experience under my belt.The last weeks have been terrific for me in the currency futures, contrary to the rest of my 'hobby'.

 

I was wondering if anybody has an idea why the AUD futures behaved so strangely today. Recently any bad news triggered a sell off and bad days on wall street have been a poison for the AUD.

 

So I tried to short the AUD, unfortunately with a very bad entry(as usual).

As soon as the worse than expected news about Pending Home Sales hit the streets AUD v-bottomed:confused: and went against me in spurts, despite a very negative DOW. Volume was higher than average but tapered off right now.

 

The commitment of traders report shows that the big boys were short last week, my guess is that they liquidated their positions and bought into weakness. Same thing happened in the EUR and FOREX.

 

Am I missing something? Any idea how to explain it all?

 

Any help would be appreciated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you're going to trade the AUD I would probabbly keep track of news here. We are in an election year at the moment. We have just had the APEC summit, there is growing tension in the coalition as to whether the Prime Minister should resign ahead of the election cause he's really old, and we have inflation figures to be released pretty soon!

 

Our currency has been incredibly volatile over the last month and a half going from (using an indirect quote) a low of around 76 US cents for our dollar up to a high of 88 US cents for our dollar. Thats a very wide range in such a short time.

 

Keep track of the key economic news announcements when trading the AUD at the moment :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Japanese carry trade is chasing around for the best place to put their money. AUS, NZD, GBP, bouncing from one to the other looking for the least scary place to park their yens where they will earn more than the 0.5% rate in Japan. Bad news on one side of the globe has yen going to the other side of the globe. Bloomberg has finance posts that are worth looking at.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the info Nick. The AUD futures have netted me some pretty sweet profits which are keeping me afloat( a little longer? ).

My impression is that volatility is decreasing at the moment, at least compared to the july/august. It's getting harder to trade, but there could still be a couple of bucks to be made in it.

 

My opinion on the importance of news is changing right now, thanks to material i found here. I'm reading Tom Williams - Master the Markets.

It sounds like a marketing ploy for his software but the advice seems to be pretty good. Maybe you know how to play the news, i just got lucky a couple of times.

 

As an example, you do exactly the same thing in your life. Your daily decisions are based on your

background information and only partly on what is happening today. If you won the lottery last week, yes,

you might be buying a yacht today, but your decision to buy a yacht today will be based on your recent

background history of financial strength appearing in your life last week. The stock market is the same.

Today’s action is heavily influenced by recent background strength or weakness, rather than what is

actually happening today (this is why 'news' does not have a long-term effect). If the market is being

artificially marked up, this will be due to weakness in the background. If prices are being artificially

marked down, it will be due to strength in the background.

 

1. The ‘herd’ will panic after observing substantial falls in a market (usually on bad news) and will

usually follow its instinct to sell. As a trader who is aware of crowd psychology, you must ask

yourself, “Are the trading syndicates and market-makers prepared to absorb the panic selling at these

price levels?†If they are, then this is a good sign that indicates market strength.

2. After substantial rises, the ‘herd’ will become annoyed at missing the up-move, and will rush in and

buy, usually on good news. This includes traders who already have long positions, and want more. At

this stage, you need to ask yourself, “Are the trading syndicates selling into the buying?†If so, then

this is a severe sign of weakness

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think people underestimate the "herd". The "herd" is always going to be a stronger force than any one professional or even a few professionals put together. If there's panic the professionals can try to stall it if it is in their interests but they can't do that forever. Knowing how to gague the mentality of the "herd" and take a position apporpriately is the holy grail! However we can't cause we're not psychics and we're not experts on group psychology.

 

Yes people will react badly to good news and visa versa. This is about as simple as it gets when it comes to trading off the news. You'll find that most credible economic news reporters often quote the expected figure prior to its release so you can make a game plan before a trade and then gague once the news is released whether the expectation has been met, exceeded, or unrealised.

 

Of course many people will say "I don't care about what the news is, I just care about how the markets react to it" and thats a valid enough oppinion however it can't hurt to have a small game plan based on reliable expectations data. Just always remember never to go in with a pre-conceived idea!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Professionals do know how to play the emotions of the crowd and even traders who have put in a lot of effort can be struggling at that times.

 

IMHO if you want to play the news, you have to either be well prepared or you're good at making quick decision and can put on a trade within seconds.

 

If you're a long term trader, the news and the market's reaction can tell you a lot about the momentum of the instrument. I've had it with day trading, it doesn't suite me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 5th February 2025.   Stock Market Drops as US-China Trade War Escalates; Gold Hits Record High.   Futures for US and European stocks retreated, shrugging off gains in Asian markets as investors assessed the latest earnings from Wall Street tech giants and growing concerns over the US-China trade war. Gold prices soared to an all-time high, continuing a nearly 1% rally from the previous session, as escalating trade tensions drove demand for safe-haven assets. Global Stock Market Performance Euro Stoxx 50 futures declined 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.5%, weighed down by post-market declines in Alphabet Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Asian stock markets advanced for a second straight session, though Chinese equities fell as the market reopened after the Lunar New Year holiday. The yen strengthened against the US dollar, while gold surged on increased risk aversion. Tech Stocks and Trade War Concerns Asian technology stocks mirrored their US counterparts’ gains, but investor sentiment toward China remained cautious. Markets reacted to Beijing’s swift but measured retaliation after the US imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China. Compared to the aggressive tit-for-tat measures during Trump’s first term, President Xi Jinping appears to be taking a more calculated approach. US Jobs Report and Federal Reserve Rate Policy The US 10-year Treasury yield declined alongside the US dollar index, after data revealed a larger-than-expected drop in job openings for December, hitting a three-month low. The weaker US labour market data reduced fears of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing the US dollar lower and creating a favourable setup for Asian markets. Investors now turn to the US ISM services report for further clues on the Fed’s rate policy, with analysts expecting a slowdown in activity due to winter storms and wildfires. Trump Signals No Urgency for US-China Trade Talks President Donald Trump told reporters he’s in no rush to negotiate with Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating that he’ll engage in discussions “at the appropriate time.” Market analysts are concerned that prolonged uncertainty over trade negotiations could lead to increased stock market volatility, especially in China. Despite the delays in trade talks, Trump has shown that he is willing to negotiate, so markets will continue to watch closely. In a surprising move, the US Postal Service temporarily suspended international shipments from China and Hong Kong. While the reason remains unclear, the suspension follows Trump’s repeal of the de minimis rule, which previously allowed small Chinese shipments under $800 to enter the US duty-free. US-China trade tensions remain a major market risk and if both sides delay their tariff measures, markets will respond positively, but further escalation could trigger renewed volatility. Gold Prices Surge as Investors Seek Safe Havens Gold prices skyrocketed to a record high of $2,861 an ounce, fueled by concerns over trade disputes, geopolitical instability, and potential inflation risks. Beijing’s measured response to US tariffs was notably softer than its previous retaliatory actions, yet investors remain cautious about its long-term effects on global trade and monetary policy. Adding to market uncertainty, Trump proposed a US-led reconstruction plan for Gaza, further fueling demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The gold market is benefiting from rising geopolitical risks, including US-China trade uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East. Regardless of US dollar movements, gold demand remains strong.     US Dollar Weakens Amid Market Uncertainty The US dollar continued to weaken, extending Tuesday’s 0.7% drop following disappointing US jobs data. A weaker dollar generally boosts gold and commodity prices, making them more affordable for international buyers. Spot gold gained 0.7%, trading at $2,861.22 per ounce as of 6:29 a.m. in London. Meanwhile, silver and platinum also advanced, while palladium declined. Even before the latest US-China tariffs, the precious metals market was experiencing heightened volatility. Gold and silver prices in the US surged above international benchmarks, leading to a rush of large-scale shipments into the country ahead of potential tariffs. The uncertainty also caused a spike in lease rates for gold and silver, as traders scrambled to secure short-term loans for metals stored in London vaults. Crude oil prices slipped, as global growth concerns stemming from the trade war overshadowed the impact of new US sanctions on Iran. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AAP Advance Auto Parts stock, watch for an upside price gap breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?AAP
    • KSS Kohls stock watch, attempting to move higher off the 12.93 double support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?KSS
    • AVPT AvePoint stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?AVPT
    • BJ BJs Wholesale Club stock nice top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?BJ
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.