ES Move Suspect?!? (9/4/07)

[Dogpile 10]

agree, best volume bar of day comes to upside after market in total 'balance' --- could be a trap but odds play is to 'go-with' and manage a stop..

[ant 10]

agree, best volume bar of day comes to upside after market in total 'balance' --- could be a trap but odds play is to 'go-with' and manage a stop..

 

It could be a trap, but I'm sticking to the plan I made outside the "heat of battle". I do want to see it clear yesterday's high on good volume before going long though.

[Dogpile 10]

btw, the pinball buy is Rashkes way to mechanize Taylors book. The way the book explains it... you buy a 'test' of the previous days high/low. Today was classic. We had a 'pinball buy' to start the day -- and tested the previous day low. A test can be a higher low or a lower low -- the point is to watch the action 'around' the low for a potential entry.

 

Taylor would call this 'Buy Day, Low Made First' --- its not a long-term trade by Rashkes thinking -- just a trade.

[ant 10]

Agreed. Pinball buy would have worked well today.

[ant 10]

So far no trades for me today.

[ant 10]

I am long 3 contracts at 1482.50.

[Dogpile 10]

having a nice start to the month... here are my 3 trades for today.

 

ES/YM did give a pullback but I just scalped it for ~4 pts and 30 ticks respectively.

 

re pinball buy, I thought NQ had best pinball buy set-up so I was long that this morning -- wish I had held it. (note I entered and exited and re-entered -- as you can see on the chart -- held above my original stop so this was a mistake -- as it usually is -- but I hate losing trades to start my day)...

[ant 10]

Very nice Dogpile.

[Dogpile 10]

thx ant, I am always too quick on exits to hang on for a bigger win...

 

this is a relatively newer strategy for me... build up a small ES position working the bid on a pullback --- then add with YM as it starts to come out of the flag pattern... I like this entry technique cause you will only have small longs on if it pulls back hard and full positions if it forms a normal type of flag. if it tests up to fill my long and then tanks-- well then I am shit out of luck....

 

my exits definitely need work.

[ant 10]

Man, I stepped away for a few minutes and when I came back I was stopped out. Oh well.

[Dogpile 10]

might be in a larger bear flag with ABC type of structure... this pattern is bearish and lines up with the 'cap' thesis... to be determined of course but something to be aware of...

 

http://bp1.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RuAxCR72PLI/AAAAAAAAAaM/uOBfmKr0iOc/s1600-h/ES+abc+up.png

[ant 10]

I hear you. I think my error was ignoring the prior balance area high at 1484.75. ES traded to 1484.50 and then turned around. My first scale out for +2 pts did not get filled.

[Dogpile 10]

went short and plan on holding it overnight for the 'cap' bias....

 

have worked off the 'pinball buy' and made a 'lower high' in the afternoon... could very well scratch it but have stop in place and hope the cap leads to a gap down. if not, so be it...

[ant 10]

The ES continued to balance between the low of 8/31 and the upper limit of the balance area at 1484.75. No directional move yet, but it's coming (because we know that imbalance follows balance). Today, I identified two trade opportunities, I got stopped out of one due to an error in my analysis (see http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/6/es-move-suspect-9-4-07-a-2391-3.html#post18356) and missed a fill on another trade by a freakin' tick! You know how the saying goes, right? :doh:

 

The first trade should have been to fade the upper balance area limit at 1484.75 as there was a momentum divergence and no Volume follow-through (Dogpile hinted at that today). Instead of doing that, I actually went long one tick above yesterday's high at 1482.50, missed my first scale out point and got stopped out. In retrospect, my mistake was underestimating (ignoring) that resistance level that I have been discussing soooo much in this thread. I also violated a basic technical analysis maxim, i.e. support , once breached, becomes resistance. So that's what I learned from this losing trade.

 

The second trade setup was the same one that occurred yesterday and is described here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/6/es-move-suspect-9-4-07-a-2391-2.html#post18343. The following chart illustrates the two trade opportunities that I had identified for 9/6, but botched up the execution on both. If I could only eliminate these unforced errors...

 

 

This closes the week out for me as I don't trade on Fridays. Hope you all have a great trading day tomorrow!

[Dogpile 10]

these overnight plays are lower odds because have to weather a big chunk of the European session which has odds to chop up and down for hours ahead of the Non Farm Payrolls... But reward is large if we trade down as I can then get a free ride on the data release and try for a big win. Pretty high % chance of stopping out -- but big reward potential makes up for this in my estimation.

 

the market should have rallied in the afternoon today if it was internally strong -- and it couldn't. Instead, it made a 'lower high'... this could be a large bear flag forming with continuation tomorrow. that is my hope anyway. if not, then I will stop out and life goes on.

 

as an aside, there is other headline type of risk involving brokerage firms closign their books last Friday and may need to fess up about losses -- or another financial problem circulating (hedge fund losses or bank/mortgage troubles).

[ant 10]

Good luck with the trade! So far it's looking good in teh after hours session.

 

I heard someone say that the market is unlikely to rally after yesterday's gap down opening because professional money don't often give you a second chance to jump onto a trend if you missed the first rally.

[Dogpile 10]

ant, why don't you trade on Fridays?

[ant 10]

ant, why don't you trade on Fridays?

 

On Mondays and Fridays I work as an engineer for a communications company.