Walter`s Forex "Trend Trades"

[PYenner 10]

Before Fantail came along I had noticed in GBPJPY that there seems to be three degrees of pullback, ordinary (probably short of magenta), double (a bit past magenta) and extreme (triple or worse). The extreme case looks like clear trend reversal but it isn't, just an extreme pullback before a big icon payout. I saw this last night in major icons and was very impressed with how reliable vma1 trend definition was in audusd. I used to call those big pullbacks "confidence" tests, the bigger the test the bigger the payout, usually, but very testing to be trading without a fantail for a guide, easy to get drawdown or stopout on entry.

Can't expect to ever have a 100% answer but even a 50% improvement is a big advantage to have on your side.

[walterw 10]

So far Bruce I have to admit my only view of aud/usd... could not really say how this works on other pairs... anyway the icon concept is universal across instruments as timeframes... now it is true that certain pairs like aud/usd are very clean ones on the way they do develop... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

For those who are following this thread I post here the indicators and templates actually been used on mt4... on how to install indis and templates, please refer to this instructions http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/how-to-import-indicators-and-templates-2427.html

 

apply template fantailvma1 on a 5 min chart

 

and fantailvma3 on a 1 min chart... cheers Walter.

FantailVMA1.mq4

FantailVMA3.mq4

FantailVMA1.tpl

FantailVMA3.tpl

[Blu-Ray 10]

And following up to Walter's last post, anyone following along with TS, here are Vma1 and Vma3.

 

These are updated to the one I previously posted on this thread, as they now incorporate PYenner's code. (Thanks PYenner for the help translating it)

 

Cheers

 

Blu-Ray

VMA1.ELD

VMA3.ELD

[Clym 10]

and here is an updated vma1 in excel . I was reluctant to post it because even though I made quite a few changes and it looks right to me, I am not 100% sure I have the calculations exactly correct.

 

When you say "Fantail", what are you referring to exactly?

 

-Clym

rainbow2.xls

[Blu-Ray 10]

When you say "Fantail", what are you referring to exactly?

 

-Clym

 

It's what Bemac called it when he orginally coded it for VT, basically it's the rainbow.

 

 

Blu-Ray

[walterw 10]

On this chart we can see the quality of a pullback and how we can discretionally not take a trade when the pullback is too far from the area of the magenta line...

 

I would prefer to take only the pullbacks that are more near to the magenta line... it makes the icon fromation more confident...

 

 

This are some tricks on how to take more shurefoots icons... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

This is a video about the quality of the pullbacks to the magenta line... you may notice that only taking magenta line rejections can make your forex bussiness work... cheers Walter.

Near to Magenta Line.swf

[PYenner 10]

and here is an updated vma1 in excel . I was reluctant to post it because even though I made quite a few changes and it looks right to me, I am not 100% sure I have the calculations exactly correct.

-Clym

Thank you Clym

Big job done well as far as I can see.

It doesn't have to be exactly the same as any previous version, it only has to be doing something useful. You may have to use slightly different rules for trading with it but that is ok.

An example of one different rule might be the pullback towards 5min magenta rule which is a very good entry signal for the best trades. Firstly your magenta line might be closer to the price or further away from it, so your version of "price pulls back close to magenta" might need to be more or less close than Walter is using. Just need to work out your own rule for how close to magenta before it means a good big trade.

 

Now an excel version of a 5min chart would need to run for nearly 1hr before it starts to give chart data. Bit of a pest so you will probably want to stick with 1min vma as you have. On 1min, a good 5min type pullback entry signal will go way past 1 min magenta, so you will need to work out your own rule for how much pullback is a good entry signal or when is that pullback actually the start of a trend in the opposite direction, meaning you want to be trading in the new trend direction, not against it.

 

I don't have an alternative for Walters 5min trend definition. I have tried using the crossing of two ema lines on a 5 min chart and it gets close to Walters rule but not as good, it gives less certain results and you have to wait a bit longer to make sure its reliable. Now I have not tried to do it on a 1min chart, which is where you need to be trying out two ema lines for trend definition maybe. It might not be as good but it would still be useful.

 

On 1min chart you might have to use sma instead of ema, not sure, needs experimenting.

 

I notice that excel market feed is in quarter pip steps but platforms round this out to the nearest pip. I prefer the quarter pip data, more info. So expect some small differences.

 

Excel may become a thread on its own yet because it is capable of complex stuff and may become very useful. One advantage is that it is not tied to any one platform. Thanks for breaking the hard ground for others.

 

Cheers pyenner

[PYenner 10]

Clym

On a 1min chart, an ema line that comes near being like 5min vma magenta, would need to be like 500 periods on a 1min chart, wait 10 hours for it to start?

I dont know how to define trend direction on 1min.

Using a couple of ema lines that cross when the 1min trend reverses would be ok for a start. But would they be any use or just telling you what you already see in the chart?

But they will also be telling you that a pull back is a trend in the opposite direction and it is only when this switches back to the previous direction that you have the entry signal for the bigger trades.

So it may be about comparing how long the strong trend has lasted, compared to how quick the pullback takes to switch back to the strong trend.

 

The longer the main trend holds, the closer it gets to being a 5min type trend definition and the more tradable it becomes and the bigger pullback can be before it should be taken as a trend reversal.

 

I'm not saying this well. But that pullback thing is so useful that it needs to be developed for 1min charts maybe. Its a dynamic type of definition, its not like 10 pips or 20 pips, it depends on the strength or energy of the main trend as to how many pips of pullback should be used for defining trend reversal.

 

Kinda needs a thread on its own too. Arggh.

[Clym 10]

Thank you Clym

 

Now an excel version of a 5min chart would need to run for nearly 1hr before it starts to give chart data. Bit of a pest so you will probably want to stick with 1min vma as you have. On 1min, a good 5min type pullback entry signal will go way past 1 min magenta, so you will need to work out your own rule for how much pullback is a good entry signal or when is that pullback actually the start of a trend in the opposite direction, meaning you want to be trading in the new trend direction, not against it.

 

pyenner

 

Right now, I have a workbook set to record both 5 and 1 minute data non-stop whenever Forex is open. I suppose I may occasionally have to import historical data (or wait )

 

As for entry signals, I am testing several entries (that are variations of the research Walter is doing) using 5min & 1 minute vma1 and rainbow as a tool (& autotrading with excel in a live but simulated account). I am treating this as a side project but the way vma filters chop and finds trends makes it a nice tool to work with.

 

Excel may become a thread on its own yet because it is capable of complex stuff and may become very useful. One advantage is that it is not tied to any one platform. Thanks for breaking the hard ground for others.

 

pyenner

 

That's exactly why I use it! In the past I used many different programs for back testing, live charting etc but I always felt limited in some way. Excel is the only program where I can do everything. I understand why most people don't like it but I am into automating as much as possible. Also my trading rules get pretty complex over time and for me it's the easiest/fastest way to program/implement something.

 

Thanks a lot for the input you gave me a while back to correct the other .xls I posted!

 

-Clym

[walterw 10]

I want to share this little video recaping some vmar icons that happened since last post...

 

I must confess I am researching on how to take vmar icons at the 1 min chart with 5 min charts indicators on the 1 min chart

 

thanks to the new indicators Bruce is creating this will be possible... also I am always more atracted to scalping as I am more scalper than any thing... so vmar icons will probably take some new shapes for me in a near future..

 

But always I am faithfull to the same icon concepts... only adapting to my confort... I think every trader has to find eventually (if he likes icons) the "best" type of icon that gets him confortable... it may be on a 5 min chart as we posted here or 1 min 22 ticks... 4 hours, even Daily ¡¡ so that really depends on the traders personality, life style, capital, stomach, wife... etc... jejejej cheers Walter.

Small recap on vmar icons.swf

[PYenner 10]

Walter

The "5min" vma line should have been showing on your 1min chart too.

Not sure what the problem was but "test2" is out now anyway.

[Reaver 10]

Hey chimp, just wanted to drop in and let you know I used your concept of the MMA and started my own way of using it...it's a lot different, but the great potential of the MMA never dawned on me until I started reading your trend posts.

[Reaver 10]

Right now, I have a workbook set to record both 5 and 1 minute data non-stop whenever Forex is open. I suppose I may occasionally have to import historical data (or wait )

 

As for entry signals, I am testing several entries (that are variations of the research Walter is doing) using 5min & 1 minute vma1 and rainbow as a tool (& autotrading with excel in a live but simulated account). I am treating this as a side project but the way vma filters chop and finds trends makes it a nice tool to work with.

 

 

 

That's exactly why I use it! In the past I used many different programs for back testing, live charting etc but I always felt limited in some way. Excel is the only program where I can do everything. I understand why most people don't like it but I am into automating as much as possible. Also my trading rules get pretty complex over time and for me it's the easiest/fastest way to program/implement something.

 

Thanks a lot for the input you gave me a while back to correct the other .xls I posted!

 

-Clym

 

Clym,

 

What part of Memphis are you from?

[walterw 10]

Hey chimp, just wanted to drop in and let you know I used your concept of the MMA and started my own way of using it...it's a lot different, but the great potential of the MMA never dawned on me until I started reading your trend posts.

 

 

Reaver, Please feel free to post some charts ¡¡ cheers the chimp.

[Reaver 10]

Will do man, my way is a lot different than the specific way you have it set up, and they are EMAs, so I don't want confuse the issue by posting my charts here....but I'll keep charts over at my thread if anyone wants to drop by...

 

I had always overlooked the mma and then when you started explaining it, it was like a light bulb went off in my head as to the potential of it.

[MC 10]

Hi guys,

I've been following this thread for some time now and I'm amazed by the work that Walterw, Pyenner and others are doing. As my little contribution, I enclose the compilation of the stuff covered so far as 2 pdf files - see the attachments.

 

Cheers,

gjn

 

P.S.

Walterw, could you please post the working VMA3 for the VT platform, if possible. I would love to compare its performance with VMA1 which I currently have. I really appreciate your help!

 

Thanks for doing that...you made it consolidated and that motivated me to read through. Great stuff Walter and nice work on the pdf gjn.

[unicorn 10]

Excellent method Walter. Thank you.

GJN, the pdf files were really helpful. Thank you.

[Reaver 10]

You are really going for a home run on this thread man. Great job!

[walterw 10]

Excellent method Walter. Thank you.

GJN, the pdf files were really helpful. Thank you.

 

 

thanks Unicorn ¡¡ feel free to interact.... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

You are really going for a home run on this thread man. Great job!

 

at least it creates a great base for what its coming next... Bruce (Pyenner) has evolved tremendously on vma indicators programing and it makes possible a complete new generation of vmar icons in a very near future... yake care Nate ¡¡ cheers The Chimp.

[Reaver 10]

Sounds good. Wish I could figure a way to get VMA's on my Ensign charts! Have a good one Walter! Looking forward to seeing this unfold!

[unicorn 10]

This is a video about the quality of the pullbacks to the magenta line... you may notice that only taking magenta line rejections can make your forex bussiness work... cheers Walter.

 

Walter, where exactly is your entry when using the magenta line rejection?

Do you wait for price to cross the vma black line?

Do you time it with cci, ie entry upon crossing cci the +/-50 line??

 

Thank you.

 

regards.

Unicorn.

[walterw 10]

Walter, where exactly is your entry when using the magenta line rejection?

Do you wait for price to cross the vma black line?

Do you time it with cci, ie entry upon crossing cci the +/-50 line??

 

Thank you.

 

regards.

Unicorn.

 

 

On this aproach no cci`s I only use cci`s for futures scalping... now we are using the chimp oscillator on the new thread wich is not a cci...

 

 

If you wanted to trade a rejection of the 5 min magenta line, I would suggest to time your entries on the 1 min chart with the vmar3 template rainbow... no timings on 5 min... cheers Walter.