Walter`s Forex "Trend Trades"

[walterw 10]

So how are we going so far today with the "VMAR Icon" trades... lets see 3 trades did follow real time 2nd and 3rd...

 

first the setupings on 5 min :

 

 

then the entries (classic definition) :

 

 

 

 

and the exiting... trade 2 was a stop as it crossed back darkgreen line on 1 min... now the third... its still running ¡¡ thanks to 5 min trail...

 

 

 

once again using 5 min for exits gives us a much better RRR... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

And a short video about this ones with a little hint of what I am playing on the open Vma research thread... cheers Walter.

Icons today.swf

[notouch 10]

Here's a chart of this technique applied to today's GBP/USD action. If you wait for the candle to close after the crossover, you would have got into these trades very late and probably would have taken a loss or breakeven at best on all of them. I used arrows for the "best case scenario" trades. These are 3 trades that I would actually have taken because the signals occurred at a time of day when forex is tradeable. I might even have been chopped out a couple of times in between trades 2 and 3. Have I misinterpreted this technique or does it not work very well on GBP/USD or was it just because today's action was very choppy?

 

[walterw 10]

Here's a chart of this technique applied to today's GBP/USD action. If you wait for the candle to close after the crossover, you would have got into these trades very late and probably would have taken a loss or breakeven at best on all of them. I used arrows for the "best case scenario" trades. These are 3 trades that I would actually have taken because the signals occurred at a time of day when forex is tradeable. I might even have been chopped out a couple of times in between trades 2 and 3. Have I misinterpreted this technique or does it not work very well on GBP/USD or was it just because today's action was very choppy?

 

 

 

the crossover of the black line to the darkgreen line is used on the 1 minute chart... on this 5 min chart we would be looking for the icons... in that pattern context there is good chance that the crossings on the 1 min will do work...

 

 

Hope that brings some light... cheers Walter.

[notouch 10]

Thanks for that walter. It's starting to make sense now. It's a great thread but your explanations are a little long-winded if you don't mind me saying so it's taking me a while to work out what this method is all about. Here I'll try to explain it as succinctly as possible:

 

1) Identify the trend using a 5 minute chart. If the black line is above the magenta line = up trend. If the black line is below the magenta line = down trend. Black line should be sloping, not horizontal.

2) Expanding rainbow = strengthening trend. Contracting rainbow = weakening trend.

3) Black line pauses after it crosses magenta line. If there is subsequent continuation = good trade may follow.

4) Complete rainbow above magenta line = very strong up trend. Complete rainbow below magenta line = very strong down trend.

5) If all the above are met and it looks perfect = possible trend exhaustion.

 

6) Time entry using a 1 minute chart. Wait for pullback ("icon") then when black line crosses green line = enter trade. (Not sure what the relevance of the rainbow is here).

 

7) Scalper exit when bar gets inside the rainbow crossing the black line or trader exit when black line crosses green line.

 

Is that a fair summary?

[walterw 10]

Thanks for that walter. It's starting to make sense now. It's a great thread but your explanations are a little long-winded if you don't mind me saying so it's taking me a while to work out what this method is all about. Here I'll try to explain it as succinctly as possible:

 

1) Identify the trend using a 5 minute chart. If the black line is above the magenta line = up trend. If the black line is below the magenta line = down trend. Black line should be sloping, not horizontal.

2) Expanding rainbow = strengthening trend. Contracting rainbow = weakening trend.

3) Black line pauses after it crosses magenta line. If there is subsequent continuation = good trade may follow.

4) Complete rainbow above magenta line = very strong up trend. Complete rainbow below magenta line = very strong down trend.

5) If all the above are met and it looks perfect = possible trend exhaustion.

 

6) Time entry using a 1 minute chart. Wait for pullback ("icon") then when black line crosses green line = enter trade. (Not sure what the relevance of the rainbow is here).

 

7) Scalper exit when bar gets inside the rainbow crossing the black line or trader exit when black line crosses green line.

 

Is that a fair summary?

 

it would be... but there are some things that we must add here and is the fact that not all this readings are neccesary focused into the setuping process... thats why the point 6 is more related to the management of an open trade and not the opening

 

Normally in the case of the icon you will anticipate all the momentum conditions to unfold somehow after you are in the trade, if they do, they will give you confidence to stay in the trade...

 

point 7 has also a new alternative on the 5 minute chart( bars crossing lime thick line) wich I believe is giving the RRR we needed...

 

also the laddering concept is laid out here but its not much used in relation to the icon trade... on the new paralel thread this concept may become more used... thanks notouch, I like to get really inside the intrinsic concepts... what I would like to know is if you grasped all the power behind the "horizontal effect" wich actually is the backbone of this method...

I would like to know your reading about that as I believe thats the real core edge on this thread... cheers Walter.

[notouch 10]

You mean the horizontal black line? This is definitely one of the strengths of the method because it should keep you out of choppy markets. The only problem is that you will often miss the start of a new trend. Also sometimes choppy markets give great trading opportunities (like today's GBP/USD). But as an indicator to distinguish between choppy and trending markets it's one of the best I've seen.

[walterw 10]

You mean the horizontal black line? This is definitely one of the strengths of the method because it should keep you out of choppy markets. The only problem is that you will often miss the start of a new trend. Also sometimes choppy markets give great trading opportunities (like today's GBP/USD). But as an indicator to distinguish between choppy and trending markets it's one of the best I've seen.

 

yea... absolutely...

 

notouch : on the paralel research you will see how we are trying to get that start of trend (laddering) as soon as posible... it is a challenge that could end up on some interesting timing method... cheers Walter.

[notouch 10]

Have you considered ditching the 1 minute chart and using 5 minute candles instead? You have me hooked now so I was looking at the price action on AUD/USD during the Sydney session. I noticed the black line crossed the green line, then there was an "icon" pullback which culminated in a shooting star candle. That would have been my entry for a short scalp. The shooting star I'm referring to has a down arrow above it.

 

[walterw 10]

Ok Notouch... glad to interact ¡¡ thats the countertrend alternative and I call that an inverted Icon...( really did not posted here as I dont want new people confused) now you know I am a countertrader on futures and that could be a lazy trade where it does the refresh process back to the magenta line...

 

Now about time frames... my time frame IS the 5 min chart... all setups are formed there.. then the 1 min I use it for "very specific timing"... so I am actually not trading from the 1 min but from the 5 min and use the 1 min for more quirurgical entries... wich in this case vmar on 1 min does a very nice job...

 

For example that trade you are showing could be timed this way on 1 min as the black line crosse th darkgreen line :

 

 

now the nice thing is that 1 min at this point of my evolution only is used for this quirurgical entries... then for exits I go back to the 5 min and have a more large perspective of the trade... having a much better RRR... cheers Walter.

[notouch 10]

Would you call that countertrend? I thought that because the black line was below the green line, it was an example of one of your "Trend Trades" or is it only a "Trend Trade" when the black line is below the magenta line? Do you consider it significant when the black line crosses the green line on the 5 minute chart or is that for exit only?

[walterw 10]

Would you call that countertrend? I thought that because the black line was below the green line, it was an example of one of your "Trend Trades" or is it only a "Trend Trade" when the black line is below the magenta line? Do you consider it significant when the black line crosses the green line on the 5 minute chart or is that for exit only?

 

if you go slowly thru the thread you will notice that the "basic trend definition" is given between the black line and magenta line on the 5 min...

[Clym 10]

I have attached my attempt to duplicate the rainbow in MS excel in hopes that someone who has a complete understanding or the formulas may be able to see where I off and help me get it working correctly. I would like to get a full understanding of the calculations.

 

I worked from Walters post here

 

I labeled each column using the same name Walter posted for each variable so hopefully it will be easy to follow.

 

Thanks for any help.

 

Clym

Rainbow.xls

[walterw 10]

Hello dear fellow traders... here I come to recap on some "VMAR Icon" Trades we had... very very clear setups ¡¡ still timing had some issues that will be gladly solved as the paralel research will give us some alternatives to time our entries even better with the vma...

 

on the 5 minutes our setuppings of 3 perfect icons :

 

 

 

if you start to train your eye on this icons setups... you will see how easy it is to spot them... they happen all the time ¡¡

 

NOW... in terms of timing I can still say we need more optimization... and I believe our paralel research on this thread will help us a lot http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f24/playing-with-the-vmar-s-open-2440.html as probably we will take the most from the "Horizontal Effect" thru "laddering"...

 

now let me share what happened today on our timing entry of this three trades:

 

Trade 1 did lag quite in the crossing of black line to darkgreen line...

 

 

I expect to optimize this entries thru our paralel methods wich will lead much more into the entry...

 

Trade 2 is a funny case of no pullback from blackline below darkgreen... a pure horizontal effect.. once again this tells us that the paralel research on "laddering" will outperform our basic entry definition..

 

 

Trade 3 similar situation to trade 1...

 

 

SO... all trades had been winners, easy to trade all.... timing is the issue on the lab... we want to optimize... it can be done.... just take a look what we are doing on the paralel thread on "laddering" and you will se how we will be able to take the most power edge from vma... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Please look at this post http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/playing-with-the-vmar-s-open-2440-4.html from #38 on as I aboard the timing optimization there... I revisit this previous three trades with a very possible optimization of our entry timing definitions using vma.... cheers Walter.

[brownsfan019 17]

Walter - just lurking here...

 

So, at this point, how would you say this new setup is working? Initially you were very excited and I'm curious if that same fervor is continuing.

 

Are you trading this live with real money and seeing success or is this still in the trial and error stage?

 

Good trading!

 

PS

If you haven't stopped by the candlestick corner, I suggest you take a look when time permits. Awhile back I got a little irritated with you asking repeatedly about how I trade and there's quite a bit over in my little corner for anyone interested. It's amazing how complicated we can try to make things sometimes. The candlestick corner has enabled me to get back to the basics and I'm amazing myself.

[islandhome 10]

Hi Walter, Pyenner and all.

 

Just wanted to say that the intitial ikon trade first described in this thread by Walteris a solid method.... But the introduction of the timing optimisation turns a solid method into a piptastic method. Kudos to you walter and pyenner. Simple, effective, and powerful. Today I traded ikon basic for pips on the pound yen (easy peasy) as we say here in Blightly. I dare to say it but... Walter theory is over for you .... now put it into practice because you have a killer system here. Times a wasting.

 

P.S

 

Does that now mean we can do away with green ma and black baseline vma. Walter. thx

[walterw 10]

Walter - just lurking here...

 

So, at this point, how would you say this new setup is working? Initially you were very excited and I'm curious if that same fervor is continuing.

 

Are you trading this live with real money and seeing success or is this still in the trial and error stage?

 

Good trading!

 

PS

If you haven't stopped by the candlestick corner, I suggest you take a look when time permits. Awhile back I got a little irritated with you asking repeatedly about how I trade and there's quite a bit over in my little corner for anyone interested. It's amazing how complicated we can try to make things sometimes. The candlestick corner has enabled me to get back to the basics and I'm amazing myself.

 

Hi Brown... the fervor maybe is growing ¡¡ as thru more extensive research I had found more optimized timing methods... those explanations are on the other thread here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/24/playing-with-the-vmar-s-open-2440-5.html#post19142 if the VMAR Icon is working ? I would say its rocking... he was suffering of some lag before on his timing, now he will be more competitive with the new timing method...

 

I am still not trading forex live... originally my idea was to go live on forex on january next year, but as things are evolving so well I probably will go live sometime end of september or begining october... I like to have a good stable miriad of paper trades before going live, other wise its just wasting money...

 

so yes trial and error its still under way... thats how we got this beautifull optimizations ¡¡

 

Brown I do visit your corner once in a while and I am so glad to see your great inputs ¡¡ I have a great respect for you as a trader and analist... certainly the sharing process is a constructive one for the the one who shares ¡¡ cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Hi Walter, Pyenner and all.

 

Just wanted to say that the intitial ikon trade first described in this thread by Walteris a solid method.... But the introduction of the timing optimisation turns a solid method into a piptastic method. Kudos to you walter and pyenner. Simple, effective, and powerful. Today I traded ikon basic for pips on the pound yen (easy peasy) as we say here in Blightly. I dare to say it but... Walter theory is over for you .... now put it into practice because you have a killer system here. Times a wasting.

 

P.S

 

Does that now mean we can do away with green ma and black baseline vma. Walter. thx

 

 

Hey Island ... I see you grasped the edge here on the new timing ¡¡

 

about the lines plotted on 1 min chart, I still like to see all of them in my chart because I can still compare old vs new performances... also this black line still could be used for the exit optimization... (thought exits could be optimized on 5 min ) but on this stage of research I still look at all the lines... later we will see what we leave on the chart...

 

Glad you like this method Island... feel free to post charts ¡¡ cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

I have attached my attempt to duplicate the rainbow in MS excel in hopes that someone who has a complete understanding or the formulas may be able to see where I off and help me get it working correctly. I would like to get a full understanding of the calculations.

 

I worked from Walters post here

 

I labeled each column using the same name Walter posted for each variable so hopefully it will be easy to follow.

 

Thanks for any help.

 

Clym

 

Hi Clym and welcome aboard ¡¡ I dont know what exactly happened with your post but now it did appear... interesting, I never knew excel could be used for charting... just curious, how do you feed data into excel ?

 

very interesting programing there, for what I see you got some nice chart there... feel free to interact.. cheers Walter.

[PYenner 10]

Hi Walter

 

A picture of a first attempt at a turbo version.

Not sure if it will be too extreme.

 

Black is Fantail1

Yellow is turbo

Ignore Red, its just the switching signal to the VMA so I can see whats happening.

 

Try not to keep you waiting much longer but need some sleep.

Cheers

[walterw 10]

Hi Walter

 

A picture of a first attempt at a turbo version.

Not sure if it will be too extreme.

 

Black is Fantail1

Yellow is turbo

Ignore Red, its just the switching signal to the VMA so I can see whats happening.

 

Try not to keep you waiting much longer but need some sleep.

Cheers

 

Pyenner, you rock man ¡¡ that relationship looks very clean and leading at the same time... I believe we will get to the point of getting to an "almost" perfect timing... great stuff ¡¡ cheers Walter.

[PYenner 10]

Pyenner, you rock man ¡¡ that relationship looks very clean and leading at the same time... I believe we will get to the point of getting to an "almost" perfect timing... great stuff ¡¡ cheers Walter.

Yes sharper but also the HE's tend to be shorter, it may need different lines in the fantail for timing. May be confusing at first. But 1-4 bars faster so worth a try...

[walterw 10]

Yes sharper but also the HE's tend to be shorter, it may need different lines in the fantail for timing. May be confusing at first. But 1-4 bars faster so worth a try...

 

well about HE`s ... if this particular version would be used for timing only we should be ok... the idea actually on this optimization is to get clean and leading entries... so let the HE from the previous version keep working for us in terms of settuping... I believe we will get to the point of using diferent versions for diferent definitions... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

Here I attach the template of the 1 min chart for my last possible timing optimization... (blue and white lines)

 

Now I believe that what Pyenner is programming will mostly outperform this one... so stay tunned... cheers Walter.

last 1 min timing.tpl