Market Geometry is a lie?

[traderxman 10]

Pretty well done with trading for another run, time for the annual summer vacation. Thot I wud drop a thread on geometry and see if there is any P&L-ers out there.

 

Feel free to call me an ass, full of sh*t...etc etc.

 

I have looked into some trading ideas over the years and have found this one to be useful.

 

At this time of the year b4 holidays I get bored and welcome anyone of the same mind to jump in.

 

Anyway here goes.

 

I will set up some levels for tomoorows trading later this evening.

 

But for now I thot I wud drop a chart or 2 and a brief explanation of said charts.

 

TL1 Chart:

Identifies where the YM wud hit the Weekly pldot refresh area for a possible trade.

 

TL2 Chart:

Identifies an exhaust into an extreme(blue) 13,200 for a short to envelope bottom(gold) 12,960, where it exhausts(blue)... IF pldot(cyan), did NOT poosh up. It did NOT as you got no C wave(a close above the red upper envelope top)

[traderxman 10]

Oops here are Charts.

[traderxman 10]

Using the daily chart refresh. Was good at the end of the day for some.

 

TL3 Chart:

2 red arrows depict the daily envelope top refresh area.

 

TL4 Chart:

2 red arrows depict the lower time frame going into an exhaust(blue) into the daily refresh(gold)..13,143. The squiggly part of the gold area, which is daily envelope top is Mondays Aug. 20's envelope top. Was definitley pooshing down.

 

After market opens tonight I will post levels for Monday's trading.

 

After all I have been through in my trading carreer, if anyone is looking for a method that is, well 4me, sound...perhaps you may find it to your liking.

[traderxman 10]

Here is one that does not work out.

 

See the read of the flow you have with this to get out. You expect it to C wave, it does not.

 

TL5 Chart:

The up cyan arrow as we enter the weekly envelope bottom refresh.

 

TL6 Chart:

1st 2 cyan up arrows, looking to buy 13,033, you bot and you cud not get a close above the red envelope top. No C wave. Exit, the higher time period cyan pldot refresh area is pooshing down.

 

TL6 Chart further on:

Next 3 cyan up arrows is where we enter again, notice that the closes start going above the envelope top. THat is a C wave. About 5 bars after the last up cyan arrow, we exhaust(blue) back down into higher time period envelope bottom for an add-on, or to get long if you missed the action. We exhaust into the blue on top and chop for a while b4 going higher.

[Reaver 10]

I think it's kinda like Santa Claus.

 

It's not really a lie, but it's not really the truth either.

[traderxman 10]

Thanks 4 that. Takes awhile to understnad it, but anything good does.

[traderxman 10]

YM Key Levels for Monday;

 

13,055 will be key for the bulls.

 

13371

13347

13229

13207

13170

13150

13139

13074

13023-26

12983

12976

12969

12949

12898

 

Good luck everyone!

[walterw 10]

Hi Traderxman.... I did the Drummond course and its very nice material, I personally dont trade their exact method but basicly I had taken the push and refresh concept clearly into my trading.... I had adapted some of their concepts to my style... thought the MTF concepts from them are very well simplified into indicators that plot all together in one chart, and that can be done with indicators as well, What I believe its not enough well developed on Drummond is the timing techniques as they are quite primitive to me.... cheers Walter.

[traderxman 10]

Cards on the table time...timing. With P&L geometry, this is THE thrust when to get in. Perhaps you were not fully studied etc with this method. But knowing tomorrows key levels today and knowing how to take profits from them...is very clear.

 

Watch the levels posted for Monday, for exact buys and sells, forget timing. Go ahead read the tape, PC ratio, trin whatever...but you will see that with volatility or not, that the market will respect these levels.

 

Good Luck.

[ckait 10]

With those fifteen levels, what exactly are you looking for?

[BlowFish 10]

Good provocative title! Drummond's stuff is remarkable imo. Interestingly most bits of his geometry match regular geometry in many ways. 11's are pivots 51's 52's 53's match regular trend lines in lower time frames.

 

Geometry of various sorts (Drummond, Trend lines & channels, Geometric retraces and advances) are often respected (does that mean they are not a lie?) Whether this is self fulfilling or something more fundamental in the nature of price movement who knows. The PLDot which is really just a fast MA is remarkably useful it s one of the few 'squiggly lines' I'll entertain putting on my charts who needs super fast super smothe MA's when a SMA does the job so beautifully!

 

Drummond's treatment of multiple time frames is probably the most complete you are likely to find. Golden. Unfortunately the course is probably the most complex you are ever likely to encounter (I found it so at least) thus making pretty dificult to trade.

[traderxman 10]

ckait: 15 levels I posted are typically support & resistance. For example, at 9:45 ET, the high of day so far has been 13,170perhaps heading for 12,949...one of the geometry levels.

[traderxman 10]

BlowFish:With Drummond, everything needs to be disproved b4 it can be accepted. That why the title. THe 13,170 was daily nearby R...we were exhausting into it...with geometry setting up for R on the lower time periods (LTP). Looking for a refresh to 12,994. 13,066 is going to be fun, bulls will try to defend this one.

 

Drummonds course is complex but thorough. I am not phd or anything, but I put stuff on my charts that make money. Tried everything out there. From LDB data, MP, COT data, moontides, delta phenomenon, Gann, all the vendors courses etc etc.

 

Been on the CBOT floor with many traders and this is what I like. P&L Drummond Geometry.

 

If all you got from the course to trade with was, to use an SMA...sorry man, you missed the boat.

[BlowFish 10]

 

If all you got from the course to trade with was, to use an SMA...sorry man, you missed the boat.

 

Err where did I say that? Have a more careful look at what I wrote, I must say poor observation for a P&L'er. I first came across Drummond early 90's I think it was his stuff bowled me over, it is quite remarkable. The Pldot is actually a thing of beauty in my opinion. My point was it is superior in just about every way to these 'clever' moving averages. It is just a displaced 3 period sma of the (h+l+c)/3 but it does have quite remarkable properties. It still stuns me how often price respects it on all time frames.

 

Having said all that it did take 1000's of hours for me to really get it all down. There are many subtleties a couple that I only discovered recently despite going through the course probably 20 times or more. (With the unswerving support of Ted & Charlie).

 

Let me be clear I got a multitude of things from the course. As I said the multiple time frame stuff ( particularly when coupled with types of trading in each time frame) is probably one of the most powerful things you can discover. For example watching this recent top as the daily and then weekly went into congestion pinging short against the dotted line and then watching the block give way just as anticipated iis just about as good as it gets. Kinda funny the big exaust down (weekly time frame) was a month ago now.

 

Actually that was another great lesson (though I was getting there on my own) to accept nothing without proving it for yourself. That has kind of spilled over into my whole approach to everything and has changed my whole grasp of 'reality'. Sadly most people are 'asleep' when evaluating things - you'll know what I am talking about if you read the psycho paper.

 

Anyway here's a weekly & daily Dax just for fun.

[traderxman 10]

Was a nice ride down from 13,170 to 13,096. You cud have exited partials and hold some if you can.

 

BlowFish, sorry got it reversed. No biggie. You said. "The PLDot which is really just a fast MA is remarkably useful it s one of the few 'squiggly lines' I'll entertain putting on my charts who needs super fast super smothe MA's when a SMA does the job so beautifully!" See i thot u said the pldot was the fast super smooth MA that U wud not need.

 

Yup your a P&L-er 4 sure, welcome friend.

[BlowFish 10]

Indeed no big shakes...always nice to come across P&Lers

[traderxman 10]

TL8 Chart:

Here we see the dot is up. So the trade was counter trend if you will. But it was a sell from daily nearby resistance. But into the cyan(blue) line or pldot which is up onthis time frame.

 

So any exhaust , like onthe previous chart TL7, into the green vertical line, (blue arrow up) would get its day in court, a bounce .

 

TL9 Chart:

But STILL no c waves up...so partials stay! Targeting 12,994.

[traderxman 10]

So we have no C waves up, as shown on TL10 Chart.

 

Next support down is 13,074 & 13,066. Cud exit there if your not a full time day trader. If that breaks then we will hit 12,995 then maybe 12,950.

 

Anyway, hope i sparked some interest in one person. With all the sh*t out there...finding this stuff back in 1992, would have been something. Thank GOd I did!

 

TX

[BlowFish 10]

Couple of quick questions on the 4000v chart I guess the 3 main areas are daily ET- > Live ET. Daily Dot -> Live Daily Dot and EB -> Live EB? With Daily further outs the dark striped blue areas?

 

Are you still a member of the institute? Wondered if much was going on right now? I haven't hung out there since round March. PM me if you think it more appropriate.

 

Cheers.

[traderxman 10]

Questions on the 4000v chart I guess the 3 main areas are daily ET- > Live ET. Daily Dot -> Live Daily Dot and EB -> Live EB?

 

I said:They are the NEW indicators...charting the 40,000v charts refresh areas you mentioned, but on the 4,000v

 

With Daily further outs the dark striped blue areas?

I said:Yes, they are Charlie's latest on the faraways.

 

Are you still a member of the institute? Wondered if much was going on right now?

 

I said: Yes, $250 /year.

 

Charlie is still doing his very best in helping. So many ways to trade this stuff depending upon your patience level. He trades and does organic farming now, think he is close to 70.

 

 

TL11 Chart: Ok this is last chart.

You see we C waved on down through the 13066&13074 level. Was quite strong and probably more to come below 13023&13026. THis will be after bulls make sure 13066 is R.

 

TX

[traderxman 10]

During the end of Friday...we knew that Monday's envelope top was pooshing DOWN. Not a bad system when you are a day ahead of the crowd.

 

Ok couple more charts.

 

TL12 Chart:

Here we see Mondays (top gold area) Daily envelope top pooshing down.

 

TL13: Chart:

Also we see here on Monday, Weekly envelope top pooshing down.

 

This was our 13,170 area...coincidence. Perhaps, but having it happen more times than not, I think not.

 

But lets prove it ALL wrong.

[BlowFish 10]

In the interest of helping the challenge along I'm going to play devils advocate here. :)

 

How did we know (shouldn't that be 'anticipate") the Daly ET was pushing down end of Friday? The intradays (hour 4000v etc) all had the PLDOT pushing price in a trend run up? Flow shifted a little last bar but was still a trend run up and isn't that how HTP resistance breaks?

 

There was a slight shift of flow in the last bar (hourly) but looked to me like it was refreshing to push up above the hourly ET. Imagine the 4000v was similar.

 

As an aside - is your focus time frame the 4000V (presumably with a view to catching the main swings of the day)?

 

Cheers.

[traderxman 10]

BlowFish,

 

How did we know (shouldn't that be 'anticipate") the Daly ET was pushing down end of Friday?

 

I said:

 

Bigger picture(forest), look at TL3 Chart & TL5 Chart.

 

TL3 had re-tested the refresh band and began distributing. While TL5, had refreshed the Weekly EB but cud not get up through the daily ET to its Weekly pldot.

 

Smaller picture(trees), look at TL8 Chart. 15:59 bar went into blue(exhaust area) AND into daily ET, closed and held a 5/2 down, going at the very least for a refresh. We terminate into a 5/1 & 5/9 up at the bottom of the 40k volume chart, this at a key level, the yearly live ET!!!(13055) at the time. THis is live so it updates. 40k volume pldots are up so we go up after the LTP exhausted into the 40k volume charts nearby S (shown as a green up bar)blue up arrow. TL9 Chart shows its time frame refesh with an ellipse around it hitting the blue exhaust area.

 

It happens over and over again.

 

All geometry, no T&S, L2, COT data, LDB Data, volume finder, stochastics, MACD, latest indicator rave etc etc.

 

Good Luck!

 

TX

[BlowFish 10]

Ahh Ok I see. I have to say its hard to get context from all 4000v charts (even though you have HTP overlays on TL5). Look great to actually trade from though.

 

I don't normally look at YM but seeing as the plug gets pulled on ER I have switched stuff around. Looks like we are still dealing with W Dot ...I agree looks like its refreshing to push down though I need more YM data for a decent monthly chart.

 

Keep it coming!

[traderxman 10]

Just off to the gym BF, yes I did not like MultiCharts. But to each his own. Just getting ready for a little holiday...so if you want to chat more here on the forum about indicators that are new etc. I like to talk to P&L-ers. It is interesting to note you are not new to this either. So it is hard to discuss this material unless a person had a strong love for the material to stick with it. ANyway my 2 cents. Off to the gym

 

TX