YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[brownsfan019 17]

Well, thanks to GE this short is looking awfully nice so far. We'll see how today ends, but if we can end on a fairly large red bar, that will be a nice move in the direction of the trade.

 

ENTRY: 72.75 (AGGRESSIVE) OR 69.5 (CONFIRMATION)

CURRENT PRICE: 45.00 = +27.75 OR +24.5 ES PTS

 

@ $50/PT = $1387.50 OR $1225.00 PER CONTRACT TRADED

And that folks, is real money in the bank.

 

There's no 'is this a real sell signal' or junk like that here. We'll leave that to other parts of the forum.

 

 

Note - I did NOT take this swing trade. I wish I did now, but I did not.

[james_gsx 16]

More money is being made in the CL thread

 

ES day trading, energy markets swing trading, ES swing trading, I can smell the hedge fund money now :o:cool:

[brownsfan019 17]

More money is being made in the CL thread

 

ES day trading, energy markets swing trading, ES swing trading, I can smell the hedge fund money now :o:cool:

 

You said it James.

 

There's potential in the air... I can smell it.

 

Oh wait, that's just Cleveland weather. :rofl:

[james_gsx 16]

Don't get me started on weather

 

Four days ago it was 70, the next day it snowed. Then it went back to 70 the next day, so what did it do yesterday? It snowed like 4 inches! By the end of the day all the snow was melted and was cloudy!

 

This fund is going to be run on the beach in the Cayman islands.

[brownsfan019 17]

Don't get me started on weather

 

Four days ago it was 70, the next day it snowed. Then it went back to 70 the next day, so what did it do yesterday? It snowed like 4 inches! By the end of the day all the snow was melted and was cloudy!

 

This fund is going to be run on the beach in the Cayman islands.

 

Wow, you got snow. Just comfortable here.

 

A fund that is run where it is about 70 degrees all the time and comfortable sounds perfect.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Don't forget about the bugs...

[brownsfan019 17]

Don't forget about the bugs...

 

Oh yeah - no bugs. So we have to find somewhere that is about 70 or so year round, little humidity and no bugs.

[brownsfan019 17]

Well, thanks to GE this short is looking awfully nice so far. We'll see how today ends, but if we can end on a fairly large red bar, that will be a nice move in the direction of the trade.

 

ENTRY: 72.75 (AGGRESSIVE) OR 69.5 (CONFIRMATION)

CURRENT PRICE: 45.00 = +27.75 OR +24.5 ES PTS

 

@ $50/PT = $1387.50 OR $1225.00 PER CONTRACT TRADED

And that folks, is real money in the bank.

 

There's no 'is this a real sell signal' or junk like that here. We'll leave that to other parts of the forum.

 

 

Note - I did NOT take this swing trade. I wish I did now, but I did not.

 

With a little over and hour left, the short is making more money!

 

Current price: 37.00 = +35.75 OR +32.5 PTS

 

I personally would not feel comfortable holding over the weekend, so an MOC on most/all of contracts would be appropriate here.

Congrats to anyone that took this gorgeous short opportunity!

 

Note - this was the follow through that we were looking for. It took 4 days to get there, but the move we wanted appeared in a gift from GE this morning.

 

But, this damn candlestick analysis can't possibly work.

[brownsfan019 17]

With a little over and hour left, the short is making more money!

 

Current price: 37.00 = +35.75 OR +32.5 PTS

 

I personally would not feel comfortable holding over the weekend, so an MOC on most/all of contracts would be appropriate here.

Congrats to anyone that took this gorgeous short opportunity!

 

Note - this was the follow through that we were looking for. It took 4 days to get there, but the move we wanted appeared in a gift from GE this morning.

 

But, this damn candlestick analysis can't possibly work.

 

Ok, nice trade there. Will run the #'s later, but the bearish follow through I was looking for finally took place today.

 

I would MOC that trade b/c of the weekend. The charts do not say that, it's a personal preference.

[Guest forsearch]

Oh yeah - no bugs. So we have to find somewhere that is about 70 or so year round, little humidity and no bugs.

 

And no state income tax, either.

 

Sounds like Florida is a good place to start....

 

-fs

[BlowFish 10]

It certainly turned out to be a pretty nice setup but the exit is the key to how much is 'banked'. I guess there is an argument for not watching intraday so you don't get wiggled out early as I am sure I would have). There was quite a lot of heat early in the trade. I'm interested if people would still hold or exit and why? I guess you are assuming exit here? Presumably today was a wide candle but would be interested in your rationale? Wouldn't want to loose it all to a big green bar Monday That to me would be of more value than how much coulda woulda shoulda been made.

 

I was short the FTSE this morning and just about to cover for a few points cause it just wasn't moving off resistance Actually it was much like the daily ES before we got the break but on a low tick chart just going sideways right under resistance. Then bang off she went with barley a retrace and a very easy trade to hold. I had a look at the news to see what was going on, I knew there was something up somewhere! Gotta learn patience almost threw it away! :crap:

 

ES wasnt bad later in the day but I didnt have the stomach for those larger retraces so actually did worse exiting and re-entering than if I had just sat tight after the early morning congestion. That's a topic for another day.

 

Anyway the crack came and I stuck with it better than I might have thanks in part to discusiing things in this thread :thumbs up:

 

 

And for some bizarre reason I thought it was Thursday and almost ended up holding the weekend :doh: as its not I wish you all a good weekendl.

[james_gsx 16]

Blowfish you bring up some great points. There were many ways to trade this setup and it all really comes down to your plan. As noted earlier, I took the first spinning top and exited right after the opening bell due to the 15 min chart. But it really comes down to your own plan. But the candles DID tell us that price was being rejected at resistance.

 

I won't lie, this was one of those awkward trading moments. No one really knew what was coming next. We stuck to our charts that said down, and eventually we got that move. Just goes to show that you don't need to know what will happen next, but if you stick to your plan and use probabilities to your advantage you will come out on top. In this case, we came out on top.

[DbPhoenix 42]

It certainly turned out to be a pretty nice setup but the exit is the key to how much is 'banked'.

 

Why must there be only one exit?

[james_gsx 16]

Why must there be only one exit?

 

Exactly it just comes down to your plan. If you can only trade one contract you may take a more conservative approach to lock in the profits - maybe not. You could also scale out depending on various factors.

 

Candles don't provide price targets or anything like that, which is another reason why some don't like it. But if you use an oscillator, support/resistance, whatever then you can probably make it work.

[BlowFish 10]

Why must there be only one exit?

 

I certainly didn't say there must be only one exit I would imagine peeling some of at each layer of support would make sense, particularly if you get a hammer there. Certainly need some criteria for exit though.

 

EDIT: James it's tough when you drop down closer to the action, zooming back out again can be a problem. The same pitfalls can exist when you drop down to say a 1 minute chart to finesse an entry of a more 'major' daily S/R. (well to me they are as I get drawn down the rabbit hole often as not) A great trader I knew called it tickittis. Mind you trading off the hourly was tikkitis to him he liked to focus on the monthly...gave him time to think he always said).

 

I can't recall (and too lazy to fire up charts) but I think it did poke up before it went down? I guess waiting for that last test/upthrust has a lot of merit.

Edited April 12, 2008 by BlowFish

[DbPhoenix 42]

I certainly didn't say there must be only one exit I would imagine peeling some of at each layer of support would make sense, particularly if you get a hammer there. Certainly need some criteria for exit though.

 

Yes, there need to be criteria for exits. But the nearly universal problem that beginning traders have with regard to exits is a desire to trade all in then all out. Add to that the fact that they are nearly always trading with one contract or one lot, and you have a doomed setup.

 

The solution to exits is a simple one: trade as if you were trading five contracts or five lots and abandon the idea of being able to exit with all of them at the exact top or bottom. The goal is to make money, not to prove to oneself what a superior trader one is.

 

Then determine in advance where each of those contracts will be sold. For example, if one is trading support and resistance, sell the first contract at one or the other. Sell the second contract, for example, at the lower high or the break of the trendline, whichever comes first. Sell the third at whatever you didn't sell at for the second. Sell the fourth, for example, at a breach of the last swing low. Leave the fifth, for example, at breakeven.

 

Then sell the first contract at whatever point you predetermined and paper trade the other four. Do this for several months. When it becomes second nature, carry the second contract for real. Sell the first and second contracts at your predetermined points. Paper trade the remaining three.

 

And so on.

 

Simple.

 

No wringing of the hands, no thumb-twiddling, no head banging.

 

Send the thank-you gifts via PayPal

[smwinc 20]

Nice short Brownsfan - hopefully was of value to a few people!

 

Keep up the good work.

 

I actually bought the close of the ES @ 1335. Expecting a bounce Monday. See how we go.

[brownsfan019 17]

It certainly turned out to be a pretty nice setup but the exit is the key to how much is 'banked'. I guess there is an argument for not watching intraday so you don't get wiggled out early as I am sure I would have). There was quite a lot of heat early in the trade.

 

What exactly is 'a lot of heat early in the trade'? The 2nd trade (1st one stopped) had practically ZERO heat. I'll put a chart up below for your viewing.

 

I'm interested if people would still hold or exit and why? I guess you are assuming exit here? Presumably today was a wide candle but would be interested in your rationale? Wouldn't want to loose it all to a big green bar Monday That to me would be of more value than how much coulda woulda shoulda been made.

 

I would consider an exit at 4:14pm EST on Friday due the weekend. Since I am not swing trading live, it's hard to say for sure what to do here.

 

Why must there be only one exit?

 

There doesn't have to be. As my initial trade plan showed, there were multiple exit zones. See chart below.

 

 

 

 

And here's the chart:

 

 

 

According to the chart:

 

1) We'd like to see 1320 retested. Expect a bounce here unless the bears can really push it through.

 

2) As with most WRB's - expect some pause on Monday due to a long, prolonged move the preceding day. If you look at the above chart and find the WRB's, you'll see most times that the next day or two is what we define as 'chop' or indecision. It's common after a big move that we see a day or two of everyone taking a breath and seeing where the next move is. As a any day-trader will attest to, that is very common on the intraday moves.

 

3) If 1320 can be broken, we have our choice of when/where to exit the trade.

 

My concerns for holding the trade overnight at this point would be:

 

1) Holding into a weekend.

 

2) Holding after a nice red WRB. As we've seen too many times price will just chug along after an extended move like that.

 

Therefore, closing the entire trade or most of it at MOC on Friday was a good play in my eyes. I'm a bit more cautious than some, esp on swing plays, so time will tell what the appropriate move should have been. But, no looking at hindsight charts here - all in real-time baby.

 

Summary:

 

ENTRY: 72.75 (AGGRESSIVE) OR 69.5 (CONFIRMATION)

EXIT MOC: 35.50

 

PROFIT IF TAKEN AT MOC: +37.25 OR +34

 

$ BANKED IF MOC: $1862.50/CT OR $1700.00/CT

 

(ALL FIGURES ARE GROSS)

 

AS ALWAYS, PLEASE DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK BEFORE PLACING ANY REAL MONEY ON THE LINE. YES, HERE WAS A VERY PROFITABLE TRADE BUT IT DOESN'T ALWAYS WORK LIKE THAT.

[brownsfan019 17]

Oh yeah - if you are sending $ to DB for some nice 'thought' posts, then feel free to send 25% of the profits booked on this trade in real-time. Send me a PM for my email address to send profits too.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Oh yeah - if you are sending $ to DB for some nice 'thought' posts, then feel free to send 25% of the profits booked on this trade in real-time. Send me a PM for my email address to send profits too.

 

 

Damn right!

[BlowFish 10]

Brown thanks for the write up. Might ask are you a 're-enterer'? If you entered on the first arrow when we first started talking about this would you re-enter on the second one if stopped out? or do you tend to put your stops further than the traditional '1 tick away from the last swing high' and hold tough until bar close? Would you employ the same tactics for a swing as you do intraday? Guess it's hard to say for sure if not a swinger.

 

BTW why did you not pick the day before the second arrow? That seemed like a great candidate but would also have had heat. Looks almost identical tbh. The devils in the detail and just trying to to really understand that.

 

I guess James should be in for 25% too though we could all just take the trade next time and all be paid . Personally I often risk 10 points intraday on a string of trades so putting that all at risk on a single swing just requires a shift in focus. Every now and then I am tempted to 'swing on the side' :o Actually I now have a spreadbet account for this purpose I can 'play' for say £5.00 a point a 'just for fun' amount. Paying a tick or two spread is no big deal if you are swinging and it is tax free too!

 

Cheers.

[brownsfan019 17]

Brown thanks for the write up. Might ask are you a 're-enterer'? If you entered on the first arrow when we first started talking about this would you re-enter on the second one if stopped out? or do you tend to put your stops further than the traditional '1 tick away from the last swing high' and hold tough until bar close? Would you employ the same tactics for a swing as you do intraday? Guess it's hard to say for sure if not a swinger.

 

Great questions. I would simply have been stopped on the 1st and looked to re-enter on the 2nd based on my trading style currently.

 

BTW why did you not pick the day before the second arrow? That seemed like a great candidate but would also have had heat. Looks almost identical tbh. The devils in the detail and just trying to to really understand that.

 

Correct - another possible short, I did not put the arrow b/c it did not confirm (close below the low the following day). So if entering via our aggressive style, that would have been the 2nd short. Good eye.

 

I guess James should be in for 25% too though we could all just take the trade next time and all be paid . Personally I often risk 10 points intraday on a string of trades so putting that all at risk on a single swing just requires a shift in focus. Every now and then I am tempted to 'swing on the side' :o Actually I now have a spreadbet account for this purpose I can 'play' for say £5.00 a point a 'just for fun' amount. Paying a tick or two spread is no big deal if you are swinging and it is tax free too!

 

Cheers.

 

You got it! It would be nice to create small, close group of traders that are using the same ideas to make money together. It would probably require a move OFF of a public forum, but who knows where this could go. I know myself and James trade very similarly now and it would be nice to get a few others that are similar.

[brownsfan019 17]

According to the chart:

 

2) As with most WRB's - expect some pause on Monday due to a long, prolonged move the preceding day. If you look at the above chart and find the WRB's, you'll see most times that the next day or two is what we define as 'chop' or indecision. It's common after a big move that we see a day or two of everyone taking a breath and seeing where the next move is. As a any day-trader will attest to, that is very common on the intraday moves.

 

My concerns for holding the trade overnight at this point would be:

 

2) Holding after a nice red WRB. As we've seen too many times price will just chug along after an extended move like that.

 

 

So far, Monday has gone according to plan. No real trend moves, just nice, easy bounces that are easy money-makers.

 

As of 2:20pm EST we've had 2 real attempts to push price higher and the bears pushed it right back down. A test of the LOD (25.75) would be very favorable for the swing trade bearish position. We'll see if it can test that low here before the EOD.

[brownsfan019 17]

According to the chart:

 

2) As with most WRB's - expect some pause on Monday due to a long, prolonged move the preceding day. If you look at the above chart and find the WRB's, you'll see most times that the next day or two is what we define as 'chop' or indecision. It's common after a big move that we see a day or two of everyone taking a breath and seeing where the next move is. As a any day-trader will attest to, that is very common on the intraday moves.

 

My concerns for holding the trade overnight at this point would be:

 

2) Holding after a nice red WRB. As we've seen too many times price will just chug along after an extended move like that.

 

It's almost as if you could design a system around that information...

 

hmmmm......

 

:hmmmm:

 

 

Where's Walter when you need him!?!? :doh:

[james_gsx 16]

hmmm.....

 

 

Too bad this isn't the close of the day