YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[brownsfan019 17]

Ronin - where is the 'inside story' from? Is this something you typed up or receive in an email? Just curious.

[Ronin 10]

Ronin - where is the 'inside story' from? Is this something you typed up or receive in an email? Just curious.

 

Do you trust The C.O.T. Report? , just curious...

 

lol

[Ronin 10]

9:05pm - GLOBEX Filled : LONG 1412.75

 

06:56am Long 1410

 

Long 1412.50, Exit Target Filled 1420 GAIN + 7.5 Pts = $375

 

Open Position: Long 1410

 

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Do you trust The C.O.T. Report? , just curious...

 

lol

 

Good question. Never put much into it myself. You?

[Ronin 10]

Long 1412.50, Exit Target Filled 1420 GAIN + 7.5 Pts = $375

 

Open Position: Long 1410

 

 

 

Second Target Filled at 1423 for +13 Pts GAIN = $650

 

Out FLAT

Edited January 14, 2008 by Ronin

[Ronin 10]

Sunday, January 13, 9:50pm:

 

Buy STOP 1412.75 and Limit Buy 1400.25 ( In case the 1400 Level is Tested first during GLOBEX.

 

If Filled at 1412.75, Stop Loss : 1363

If --------1400.25, ----------: 1363 Below March 14, 2007 Low

 

Monday, January 14:

 

02:00am During GLOBEX: Limit Buy 1400.25 Filled - LONG 1400.25

 

THAT was a huge spike down to 1398 ! My entry filled was only 2.25 Pts from the Low. :applaud:

[james_gsx 16]

First off - Ronin good trade!

 

I think we'll get a little dead cat bounce here. Super light volume today and the ES is at a huge support level. I'm going to wait for a short signal to come before making a move...

 

 

On the YM i have 12,800 outlined, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a move up to 13,000 before falling back down. I wish I had the Fib retracement lines plotted on this chart because I think that would give me a better clue, but oh well.

 

 

Key levels to watch for tomorrow

YM - 13,800 and 13,600

ES - 1400 and 1420

NQ - 1960 and 1900

 

Good trading.

[thrunner 10]

If Filled at 1412.75, Stop Loss : 1363

THAT was a huge spike down to 1398 ! My entry filled was only 2.25 Pts from the Low. :applaud:

Your trade didn't get busted? Who is your broker if you don't mind divulging ?

50 point stops on ES is not really a trade most would make on an overnight trade.

[brownsfan019 17]

Your trade didn't get busted? Who is your broker if you don't mind divulging ?

50 point stops on ES is not really a trade most would make on an overnight trade.

 

I would be surprised if the trade sticks as well according to what I read. I hope it sticks for Ronin, but don't be surprised if come Tue the account reads differently.

[james_gsx 16]

It's looking pretty ugly out there guys. I went ahead and put together some monthly charts since I think we all know what's going on with the daily (high wave candles and old support become resistance there ya go done :o).

 

First off I want to look at the actual Dow cash index. As you can see support from Feb 27 was broke this week and our next stop is 12,000. In my opinion there is too much force behind the selling and I don't see 12,000 being able to act as a major support level. I hope I am wrong for the sake of people who have a lot of money tied up in the markets through IRAs, 401ks, etc. But unfortunately the low 11,000 target is something I think we can all expect to see sometime this year.

 

 

Next up is the ES monthly, as you can see 1400 was a pretty big support level. Our next stop is 1300, hopefully that will hold.

 

 

I don't expect to see any of those targets within the next few months. Remember this is a monthly chart, so it takes time for these to develop. I do believe we're in a recession just by looking at the chart. I think we have an extraordinary opportunity here to make a lot of money. Unfortunately a lot of normal people (like our parents) will probably lose a lot of money. But that money has to go somewhere, might as well be our pockets :o

[james_gsx 16]

Wow! Those targets were hit in a matter of days.

[Ronin 10]

Brown19,

 

Here is the Post you deleted:

 

I'm wondering what the 100 pt guarantee was though - is that on the YM,

ES, something else? I can see the reason for bullish sentiment, but a

100 pt guarantee is a bit steep in my opinion.

 

Brown 1355.50 is 100 Points from this morning Low : 1255.50 and the ES high this morning is 1323.75 !

 

:o

Edited January 22, 2008 by Ronin

[brownsfan019 17]

Brown,

 

Here is the Post you deleted:

 

I'm wondering what the 100 pt guarantee was though - is that on the YM,

ES, something else? I can see the reason for bullish sentiment, but a

100 pt guarantee is a bit steep in my opinion.

 

Brown 1355.50 is 100 Points from this morning Low : 1255.50 and the ES high this morning is 1323.75 !

 

:o

 

I didn't delete anything smarty - it's right here - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/103/futures-journal-log-2911-17.html#post28576

 

Not sure what you are talking about deleting of posts. It's right there. Just have to open your eyes.

 

:missy:

 

But, I guess time will tell if the 100 pt Ronin guarantee holds up or not. I see you also chose the 55.50 level, which oddly enough was the limit lock down level, yet your post was WAY after that fact...

 

Odd...

 

Anyone can play that game - the HOD of the day shortly after 11am will be 1324. Never mind that it's now 11:28.

 

My point was that to call a 100 pt move FROM THE TIME YOU ACTUALLY CALLED IT was a bold prediction. I did not realize you were going back in time and calling it from the lock down level... It's so easy being a trader after the fact, isn't it?

[brownsfan019 17]

James,

Thoughts on these daily hammers?

 

[james_gsx 16]

I think it signals a TON of buying at those levels. I think a lot of the negative news we have been hearing and slightly on the horizon was priced in. I also think that whole decline from 12,500 down to 11,450 was the "crash" and I expect us to test 13,000, possibly 13,500. I do expect pullbacks before that, but it's my overall target. The reason for this is because I think it's very similar to what we saw back in august, so short term I'm bullish. I want to see several higher lows before I will feel safe calling this a new bull market.

 

Here are my annotations from last night.

 

 

[MC 10]

 

Notice the red vertical lines where the monthly ATR (Average True Range) breaks upwards, this measures volatility. Volatility is caused by what...EMOTION and PANIC. This is where the pro's are in control and they scare and whipsaw you till you're rich or broke (usually broke). In this high ATR range, fortunes can be made or lost quickly due to the jerky, exaggerated movements of the market. If you're not experienced it's probably best to sit out and start in calmer waters or just paper trade. This is why they say you don't know $hit till you've made it through a bear (high volatility) market. Low ATR bull markets are easy to trade and most anybody can make money or at least lose minimally in those conditions. This recent action will eat most people up.

 

Let me preface this by saying THE MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS LOGICAL.

Now you can see the "logical" thing is for them to test the area where this volatility started. The blue horizontal lines indicate the price level where this high ATR began. The Y2K bear tested that level 4 times and held.

 

THIS markets action we see the blue line is also holding up at this point. This is a monthly chart so the last candle is still open for a few more days but IMO it should close above that level. We also see the fib retracement...the 38.2% was bounced off which is a healthy retracement level assuming it holds. This is why I'm not overly bearish at this point. I think with the "easy button" (as I call it) the amateur traders today can cause the panic faster than ever. Look at the rocket ATR did on this drop. I have to think the pros got the prices they wanted and will support the levels I've posted on the other chart prior (10,760ish). Again I think this because they won't trash the market while still in it and IMO they are very much still in it. Using auction mentality AND the 50% fib retracement (10,760ish), that is kind of the point of no return IMO. That breaks and all hell breaks loose since those long term green positions of many years turn to red. This would be fine if big money wasn't still in the market, they don't care about retail investors. I think they have holdings at stake, this is really the $5 trillion dollar question.

 

Has the news has crippled your ability to think for yourself? It has for many traders and general population that don't know better. Follow the news if you want to be mislead and get the inside track AFTER it's happened. NOW the job numbers are up, hrmmm kind of makes you curious, no? I'm not saying I'm pro by any means, just that I know enough now to not listen to the hype. If anything use it as a BS meter to know when the market might need to be faded.

 

Now onto what "may" happen next. Anything is possible, but I expect some chop and probably some further tests of the 38.2% fib and blue line. MAYBE as low as that 50% fib line, though it would be risky for big money to let that happen. If that 50% retracement breaks I would RUN and hide from the market till the dust settles. Either scenario...dust settling to me will be something like the pink trend line where we get a breakout above of the downtrend WITH a breakdown of the ATR. Bull markets don't happen on high volatility, so when we get a lower ATR the bulls can come back out to play.

 

Below is also a volume by price chart I did on 1/24. Pretty much jives with the above monthly chart.

[smwinc 20]

Let me preface this with I am a big fan of candlesticks and using them for trading.

 

However, to add value, please suggest entry prices with your analysis, or, how you personally would use them to place or manage existing trades. It is very easy to get caught analysing 'after the fact' with candlesticks.

 

Right now we are trading at 1322 in the S&P E-mini March contract.

 

If you had taken a long position the moment those screen shots were taken, it would be an entry of 1335-1340, with a current Max. Adverse Excursion of 13 - 18 points.

[james_gsx 16]

I know this is after the fact, but look at that spinning top we got the other day! First a hammer on support, then a text book doji/spinning top to signal our exit. Right now we have our confirmation candle and the next support area is the 21 EMA or 1,350. I suspect this latest push up was a fake out before testing some of those January lows. But we will see what happens.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

James,

Saw this in real-time while day-trading and was curious how today would play out...

 

 

 

 

That kind of a retest from the Jan lows was a gift to anyone watching.

 

Few different ways to have played this, but a profitable trade nonetheless.

 

I did NOT take this in my account as I am 100% daytrade mode currently. No confidence holding overnight with what we've seen going on.

[james_gsx 16]

Nice find Brownsfan! I actually had that noted on the whiteboard next to my desk. But like you, I don't feel safe holding any futures trades overnight. Monday morning I made a few trading mistakes because I wanted the market to fall, and it was going up. Had I actually looked at the daily chart during the day I would have seen that big support level and would have faired fading it, instead of trying to go for the miracle breakout that rarely comes. Lesson learned.

 

And let's get this thread going again!

[Nick1984 10]

The ES chart from the 18th was a fantastic chart to look at for our local ASX index cause following the awesome 4+% rise following the fed it was a no brainer to immediately go long on our own markets (I did with shares though) and our markets had the biggest one day rise all year on very healthy volume! A very profitable day.

 

A few people at the office reckon that the US interest rate cut may signal a turn around in market confidence here in Aus but i still think we have a lot to go to get out of the woods. I'd like to see the ES back above 1400 in the near term future to settle my own mind about whether we'll be back on the way up. Somehow I can't see that happening for a long time.

[brownsfan019 17]

Nice little box we are in currently:

 

[OAC 10]

That is right. Despite the volatility recently, we have been going sideways since January. According to Elliot Waves, this looks like wave four after we had a three wave down since October, and most likely it will resolve itself to the downside for the final fifth wave down, if that happens, the bear market will become official because five waves down is an impulse wave. On the other hand, a fifth wave can fail and the double bottom holds, but that is the less likely scenario.

[james_gsx 16]

Looks like another exciting week is ahead of us. Everything is pretty much rangebound at this point, and I don't think we will see any major breakthroughs.

 

ES:

 

Like Brownsfan said, there is a nice range. I don't know if this current resistance will hold, but if prices moves to the upper range resistance at 1375 I will fade the move. If price hits support at 1250, I will fade that move too. The reason I am not doing anything now is because I don't like the R/R, since it's basically in the middle of the larger ranges. If I fade the other levels I can setup tight stops and bigger targets.

 

 

 

NQ:

 

On the weekly QQQQ calls look attractive, but at a closer look 1750 is in the middle of the range between 1700 and 1800. Therefore it's not a very attractive risk/reward for my money. The daily chart doesn't look as good as the weekly, so that's another factor. If price charges down to 1700 then I will buy calls, but if we get a slow grind that moves with the trendline then I will not do anything.

 

 

 

I am talking to my broker about setting up an options account to trade the options around futures. I don't like the swing trade the futures as the $ loss and reward is too big for me to stomach on a daily basis. But I can handle the options, and that will allow me to trade other markets such as oil and gold without looking for ETFs. So if that happens, then I won't use SPX or QQQQ options but the options underlying the futures instead.

 

Good trading this week.

[james_gsx 16]

Well with a successful break this morning of the resistance, along with a very strong tick sentiment I bought 1 April call @ 1370 today. The reason I got in early was due to the ticks, which showed very strong buying and confirms that this rally is legit. If we close back within the range then I will exit the trade, otherwise my target is the next 1375 resistance area.