YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[brownsfan019 17]

I'm going to let this work. I am looking to enter @ the close of the spinning top, so I need a little down move. I may get a nice fill here or be stuck watching...

 

 

 

Looking to enter @ 12867.

IF it triggers, stop will go out @ 12781 (one tick from low of spinning top).

 

No profit target out there right now. I'll see how this looks tomorrow morning.

 

PS

I think I blurred out the important stuff, but if you see something, please let me know.

[brownsfan019 17]

note - proper trade planning would have entered @ the close of business on 1/7/08. That is what 'proper planning' would have done. So, I may not get the fill that I should have, but that's ok. James and I will work this trade live and see how it goes.

 

Anyone else in?

 

:cheers:

[james_gsx 16]

The reason I just entered after the market closed is quite simple, I wouldn't enter otherwise. I need to accept the fact price might move around and I could take a slightly bigger hit but I'm willing to take that if it means I actually take the trade. That's my biggest problem... I don't take trades. I didn't do all of this work to be an analyst. Next time I'll try to enter at a better price, but for now I've done all the necessary homework and it's a matter of just doing it.

[brownsfan019 17]

The reason I just entered after the market closed is quite simple, I wouldn't enter otherwise. I need to accept the fact price might move around and I could take a slightly bigger hit but I'm willing to take that if it means I actually take the trade. That's my biggest problem... I don't take trades. I didn't do all of this work to be an analyst. Next time I'll try to enter at a better price, but for now I've done all the necessary homework and it's a matter of just doing it.

 

There you go, that's what this is about.

 

Whether this trade works or not is irrelevant, even though it may not seem that way when looking at your P&L. Placing the trade is a big step. Now let it work and do it's job. Some work, some don't. That's part of the game.

NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS, YOU CANNOT GET TOO COCKY OR DISCOURAGED AT THE OUTCOME OF THIS ONE TRADE.

 

PS

You have my email address if you need it tomorrow. If you want my cell, send me an email as I will be trading intraday tomorrow and rest of the week.

[brownsfan019 17]

One observation - take a look if you did enter right at the close @ 12867. Price is at 12890 now, a quick and easy +23 on proper trade planning...

 

23 x $5 = $115/ct. Trade 5 or so and and quick 500 bucks.

[brownsfan019 17]

Off to bed here... :sleep:

 

We'll see what the overnight session holds for this trade. Still working the mentioned limit order.

[brownsfan019 17]

Off to bed here... :sleep:

 

We'll see what the overnight session holds for this trade. Still working the mentioned limit order.

 

Well, no fill here and this thing could be running away.

 

I was tempted to grab some before off to be and I should have now in hindsight. James is currently up approx 19 pts on the trade during the overnight session. Not too bad so far.

 

This brings up a very interesting observation on my end - while looking at after the fact charts, you cannot assume you always got a fill since the mini's trade round the clock. In other words, the preferred entry here was at the close on 1/7 and you needed to pull the trigger right @ the close or right at the open at 4:30pm. By the time I got to the party, price had pulled away and very well may not come back to my entry price now.

 

This is a potential problem for a number of reasons for any swing trader:

 

1) At some point you have to decide if you want to chase or not. If you chase, the stop just got bigger.

 

2) If the trade works and you are not in the trade due to poor planning, it will bite you in the butt real quick. The word bitter comes to mind.

 

So our little exercise here has proven so far that you have to be ready to act when the time comes. If James and I had found this sooner, there may have been a shot to get my preferred entry. Now, James is in profit while I was sleeping and now I have to decide whether to chase or let it go and wait. I think I may chase.

[james_gsx 16]

Looks like the NQ would have been the better trade, could have set the target right around 2,000 and would have already been out.

 

Edit: I got out, the internals were disagreeing with my position. The TRIN has been climbing higher and is now above 1.0, the ticks are spending more time below 0. Price hit yesterdays high then sold off. These were good enough reasons for me to sell and lock in my profits. NQ and ES are looking similar, if we rally into the close and I leave money on the table then it's a lesson learned. I know I'd beat myself if I let a winning position turn into a loser while seeing solid reasons to exit.

Edited January 8, 2008 by james_gsx

[brownsfan019 17]

Looks like the NQ would have been the better trade, could have set the target right around 2,000 and would have already been out.

 

Edit: I got out, the internals were disagreeing with my position. The TRIN has been climbing higher and is now above 1.0, the ticks are spending more time below 0. Price hit yesterdays high then sold off. These were good enough reasons for me to sell and lock in my profits. NQ and ES are looking similar, if we rally into the close and I leave money on the table then it's a lesson learned. I know I'd beat myself if I let a winning position turn into a loser while seeing solid reasons to exit.

 

The ONLY debate I have here James is that you are using INTRADAY data to dictate your DAILY trade.

 

I'm long and we'll see how it goes. As I told you in the chat room, we need some afternoon bulls to step in or this may be one of the failures. Stop not in danger (yet).

[james_gsx 16]

I agree completely. That's something I'm going to have to work on next time.

 

Time to start looking for the next setup, which may very well be today.

[Nick1984 10]

Hey fellas hows it goin!?! Been a while since I been back here. Long holidays and all after finishing uni. James is orange now! hehe. How's everyone doing in their trades? I'm hopping back onto the trading bandwagon come next week after some long well deserved rest. What a time to come back in! Wish I'd been short from a few weeks ago.

Lets start some analysis tomorrow!

[brownsfan019 17]

Hey Nick!

Our little long here did not go as planned. :doh:

 

Very bearish momentum at the moment so stay tuned.

[james_gsx 16]

Yeah it didn't work, but that doesn't really mean anything. We'll have to make sure we take the next setup with a favorable risk/reward. Nice to have you back Nick!

[Ronin 10]

Read the entire Thread. Very impressed with the two main contributors, keep up the good work ( my expectations were exceeded ):

 

Here is my Trade for Monday,

 

Buy STOP 1412.75 and Limit Buy 1400.25 ( In case the 1400 Level is Tested first during GLOBEX.

 

If Filled at 1412.75, Stop Loss : 1363

If --------1400.25, ----------: 1363 Below March 14, 2007 Low

 

SETUP:

 

• 1. Nine Points Bullish Hammer -30min
  
• 2. Banking Sector ( $BKX ) Weekly Bullish Hammer at RSI=30 Upcross
  
• and STO Upcross
  
• 3. SP500 Daily: Vol. Osc. at -84% Extreme Historical Reading
  
• 4. SP500 60min: Vol Osc. at -1% rising from -10%
  
• SP500 Weekly: Extreme High Volume Bullish Hammer
  
• ( shadow twice the body)
  
• 5. NASDAQ 60min: Series of six consecutive Lower Dojis and Vol. Osc at -15% Divergent to Lower Prices
  
• 6. Nasdaq Daily: Vol. Osc. at - 66% Extreme Reading
  
• 7. VIX Daily : Inside Day Bearish Doji and Crossdown of STOCH.
  
• 8. NYSE Advance/Decline Divergence
  

 

Edited January 12, 2008 by Ronin

[Ronin 10]

SETUP:

 

3. SP500 Daily: Vol. Osc. at -84% Extreme Historical Reading

 

[Ronin 10]

SETUP:

 

2. Banking Sector ( $BKX ) Weekly Bullish Hammer at RSI=30 Upcross and STOCH Upcross

 

 

Edited January 12, 2008 by Ronin

[Ronin 10]

SETUP:

 

4. SP500 60min: Vol Osc. at -1% rising from -10% and MACD Divergence

 

[Ronin 10]

SETUP:

 

5. NASDAQ 60min: Series of six consecutive Lower Dojis and Vol. Osc at -15% Divergent to Lower Prices

 

Edited January 12, 2008 by Ronin

[Ronin 10]

SETUP:

 

6. Nasdaq Daily: Vol. Osc. at - 66% Extreme Reading

 

[Ronin 10]

SETUP:

 

7. VIX Daily : Inside Day Bearish Doji and Crossdown of STOCH

 

 

[Ronin 10]

SETUP:

 

8. NYSE Advance/Decline Divergence

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Ronin - thanks for joining us! Great posts!!!

 

If I was one of the two you were referring to, thanks! If not, I'll just pretend it was intended for me.

 

Good trading!

[Ronin 10]

Read the entire Thread. Very impressed with the two main contributors, keep up the good work ( my expectations were exceeded ):

 

Here is my Trade for Monday,

 

Buy STOP 1412.75 and Limit Buy 1400.25 ( In case the 1400 Level is Tested first during GLOBEX.

 

If Filled at 1412.75, Stop Loss : 1363

If --------1400.25, ----------: 1363 Below March 14, 2007 Low

 

SETUP:

 

• 1. Nine Points Bullish Hammer -30min
  
• 2. Banking Sector ( $BKX ) Weekly Bullish Hammer at RSI=30 Upcross
  
• and STO Upcross
  
• 3. SP500 Daily: Vol. Osc. at -84% Extreme Historical Reading
  
• 4. SP500 60min: Vol Osc. at -1% rising from -10%
  
• SP500 Weekly: Extreme High Volume Bullish Hammer
  
• ( shadow twice the body)
  
• 5. NASDAQ 60min: Series of six consecutive Lower Dojis and Vol. Osc at -15% Divergent to Lower Prices
  
• 6. Nasdaq Daily: Vol. Osc. at - 66% Extreme Reading
  
• 7. VIX Daily : Inside Day Bearish Doji and Crossdown of STOCH.
  
• 8. NYSE Advance/Decline Divergence
  

 

 

 

9:05pm - GLOBEX Filled : LONG 1412.75

[Ronin 10]

9:05pm - GLOBEX Filled : LONG 1412.75

 

06:56am Long 1410

[Ronin 10]

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