YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[mister ed 10]

or do you take a few pills and hold over the weekend?

 

Over the weekend eh? Would have to be quite a few pills. I'm still getting used to holding for 5 minutes...

[brownsfan019 17]

 

 

EOD chart looks quite nice for the short.

 

Very concerned where this closed at however. If still short, have to watch and be careful Tue and Wed going into the holiday.

[mister ed 10]

Very concerned where this closed at however. If still short, have to watch and be careful Tue and Wed going into the holiday.

 

BF, it has closed nearly on its lows, which is positive for shorts - is your concern the red dotted support you have drawn in?

[james_gsx 16]

Mister Ed, a lot of people don't like to hold positions when they go out for a holiday. Let's say they leave tomorrow and go on vacation, they won't want the risk of an open position in this unstable market. So a lot of people will sell or cover their shorts and go into cash before they leave. Also a lot of guys will see the market is at support, and since they plan on taking a few days off they will cover and be happy with the trade.

 

Personally I would have covered the short at the close Friday and taken this entire week off. This is great time to go over your trading and analyze yourself so you're fresh and have new goals to tackle come next week. That's my opinion at least. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get a little Santa Clause rally going into Christmas

[brownsfan019 17]

BF, it has closed nearly on its lows, which is positive for shorts - is your concern the red dotted support you have drawn in?

 

Yes, good observation.

 

The 1440 level has been respected numerous times, ala red line on my chart. I'm not suggesting to exit a short right now, but I would be very cautious knowing:

 

1) The 1440 level can easily hold here and/or

2) Thanksgiving is on Thurs and with that around the corner, I would be cautious holding into or over the holiday.

 

Last price in after hours is 1443, so it will be interesting to see what, if anything, happens when Europe opens in a few hours. I'll have to wait till the morning as it's off to bed here. :sleep:

[mister ed 10]

Yes, good observation.

 

Note to self - engage brain before pressing "enter":o

[Nick1984 10]

This is the second time its coming down to test that level. Each attempt should make it stronger so maybe it might break to the low side. If your tempted to go long at 1440 then there is resistance not to far above it so its a pretty aggressive move. I'd sit on my hands for now and watch to see what happens.

[brownsfan019 17]

Current price in AH: 1450.00. Already up 10 pts from the 1440 level.

 

Once again, the 1440 level has held into the AH session.

 

Nick is right, the more attempts at trying to breaken the level make it weaker, but so far, it's held again. I think James hit the nail on the head though when he explained most shorts would be exited soon b/c of the holiday. That in turn will add some buying pressure to the already bullish stance at 1440.

 

Depending on how today forms, we could get a reason to get long.

[TinGull 10]

Though I'm not holding a futures position on the spx, I still am holding my options positions on the indices over the holiday weekend. I'm way in the clear on a couple of the positions, so just let 'em ride the rest of the way out till DEC expiry. Has been a sweet ride, tho.

[brownsfan019 17]

As of 2:30pm, ES at 1423 and testing new lows. Great news for the short if we can stay down around here and close lower.

 

So, anyone by chance making money on this?

 

:embarassed:

 

 

There is some SERIOUS money being called out on this one thread. Go back and read through some of the older posts... a YM long comes to mind that did very well too.

 

A newbie could read this one thread and have made money. More than what any of those vendors are trying to sell you.

[TinGull 10]

So, anyone by chance making money on this?

 

Bet yer bottom dollar I am

[brownsfan019 17]

Bet yer bottom dollar I am

 

Glad someone is Tin!!!

 

:thumbs up:

[brownsfan019 17]

What a push up there, back above that 1440 level AGAIN. See where we close, but the bulls are defending this area once again. We got below 1440 @ 12:30pm EST and at 3:30pm the bulls ran it back up, with all those shorts wondering what just happened.

 

Point is that make sure you let the charts talk to you. The 1440 level has stuck out like a sore thumb and once again it appears it may hold or at least provide a strong area of fighting.

[TinGull 10]

Well, closed out a portion of my play yesterday afternoon for near my max profit on it. Unreal to have that happen in 6 days on a 50 day spread... Still holding another play on spx, tho...so far so good.

[MrPaul 10]

Well, closed out a portion of my play yesterday afternoon for near my max profit on it. Unreal to have that happen in 6 days on a 50 day spread... Still holding another play on spx, tho...so far so good.

 

Opening 17 points down on the fut's probably helps that last portion huh? :o

 

(as of 8:25 cst)

[TinGull 10]

Yup, sure does help

[james_gsx 16]

What a day for trend trading! Hopefully some of you got a little Thanksgiving bonus

 

Heres what I see, the YM broke pretty strong support and I will be waiting for it to test the August lows. I think when these lows are tested it could setup a great day trade to the long side. 200 points isn't really a big deal, we could see it Monday.

 

 

The ES is pretty much the same thing...

 

 

The NQ is interesting, there has been some strong support in this area. Just like at the recent highs though, I wouldn't be surprised to see this support fail.

 

 

I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving.

[walterw 10]

Today I readed this entire thread and its loaded of excellent quality insights ¡¡ very good inputs into candle trading... would be nice if you keep updating it as it has a very great educational value thanks Brown and James ¡¡ cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

What a bearish day today! The bears were in full effect!

 

 

 

Just in case anyone traded this blindly, all longs should be exited by now!

 

This one just didn't have it and this was a very convincing close below the 1500 level, which is a major psychological level.

 

You could also view this inverted hammer as a reason to short. I gotta get to bed here, but the idea being that you have a close below our new resistance (old support that the long was based on) AND we are below the 1500 psychological level. I'd have to see where a realistic profit target would be to see if this is worthwhile or not, but there could be an aggressive setup here.

 

Side note - days like today are why I really enjoy the day-trading part of this business. Today was just a great day to be grabbing points all over and while I knew the drop was not good for our long here, it was a great money maker on an intra-day chart.

 

 

I have a question as I am new to this... when a hammer fails like this example, can the oposite direction be taken as a valid signal ? for example a swing low of this hammer was a nice short to be taken... thanks Walter.

[brownsfan019 17]

I have a question as I am new to this... when a hammer fails like this example, can the oposite direction be taken as a valid signal ? for example a swing low of this hammer was a nice short to be taken... thanks Walter.

 

Walter,

A failed hammer could be a reversal signal in and of itself. You just have to see if the % of that trade working out are in your favor over time. If not, you turn one loser into two losers.

 

Do some research if you like what you see and start a new thread here along the lines of failed hammers into profits.

[brownsfan019 17]

This looks like a great risk/reward setup on the daily. Minimal risk with a small spinning top from 1/7/08. We chatted about it in the room today, so thought I'd put a follow up here. Question is where to cover... this baby could go. Or it might not. :doh:

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Pick your poison.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[james_gsx 16]

I had a target for 1950 on the NQ and that target was hit today. The problem I have with the NQ is the recent range breakout, so my initial target would be just above 2,000 which was old support. The low of Monday's candle was just under 1950 and I don't like that risk/reward.

 

 

Now the YM on the other hand, I do like this risk/reward. I think you can let this trade run until at least 13,200. I called it a high wave candle on my analysis but one thing I did point out which I believe is more important than the name of the candle is amount of buyers present in the 12,800 range. So I would feel comfortable with a long here. Once that low is broken though I have a feeling it might move fast, so I would still be cautious.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Did you take the NQ trade in a live account? If not, why not?

 

Yes, I am going to push the envelope b/c you've done the work. You are putting in the time required whereas many won't. You should be paid for your efforts.

 

The YM long is a nice setup here with a great risk/reward.

 

How about we both take this and see what happens? I'm in if you are in. 1 contract on the YM. You in?

 

[james_gsx 16]

Alright I'm in, long at 12892. Stop below 12800.