Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

AbeSmith

8/16/07 General Trade Log / Idea Sharing

Recommended Posts

ym_execution___ym___5m__5_minutes__session_5-20070816-102852.jpg

 

Haven't been doing too much lately with my move back to Maine coming up, but here's a nice one I took this morning for 40 points.

 

Tin,

I am curious - where was your entry and stop on that one? That's something we'll have to discuss in the candlestick corner as the actual entry and stop are critical, yet can have very different variants.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Abe,

Are you using Sierra charts for your VBC's? Reason I ask is that I have been testing Sierra this week and it appears there VBC's are NOT pure VBC's. I'll explain more if you are using Sierra.

 

Yes Brownsfan. I'm still using Sierra chart. Why do you say they are not pure VBC's?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Abe,

 

Something that's a little more subtle as far as watching VBC's is paying close attention to the range of the bar. After a series of wide range bodied candles and you start to see the size of the candles contract, that's usually a tell tale sign that momentum is changing hands. One of trades you took you went short after a series of red WRB candles and then as the candles were getting smaller in range, you initiated your short and got out. This is when I'd be looking to get long.

 

It's a more subtle thing, but something to really pay attention to. In fact, this could be the start of designing a trading plan for you. In fact...I'm done for the day so I might design one based on this and see how it plays out.

 

btw, brown...before you get on me about being done...I'm taking only select trades because I've got a TON of stuff going on in my life right now with moving back to Maine and don't want to over do things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Abe,

 

Something that's a little more subtle as far as watching VBC's is paying close attention to the range of the bar. After a series of wide range bodied candles and you start to see the size of the candles contract, that's usually a tell tale sign that momentum is changing hands. One of trades you took you went short after a series of red WRB candles and then as the candles were getting smaller in range, you initiated your short and got out. This is when I'd be looking to get long.

 

It's a more subtle thing, but something to really pay attention to. In fact, this could be the start of designing a trading plan for you. In fact...I'm done for the day so I might design one based on this and see how it plays out.

 

btw, brown...before you get on me about being done...I'm taking only select trades because I've got a TON of stuff going on in my life right now with moving back to Maine and don't want to over do things.

 

Thanks Tin. You always have such good advice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok Abe,

 

Since I love designing systems I want you to check this one out. This is just the beginning, and I'm not going to take it any further, but I want you to check this and report back on what you've found.

 

What I would do based on your chart today is watch for small range BODY candles. With the same amount of volume flowing into a smaller range body, this is showing that people are wanting to keep price where it is in order to accumulate their positions. This equates to a change in momentum coming up.

 

The steps to take for the system I've come up with are as follows:

 

1: Watch for 2 small range body candles. This is VERY discretionary. I define them as being smaller than half of the body of the previous candle. If you get 2 of them in a row after an upmove,

 

2: Then watch for a larger body DOWN candle and

 

3: Enter at the CLOSE of that candle to go short.

 

place a protective stop above the swing high of that move (or swing low if you're going long) and do NOT exit until you get a reversal signal, which would be the opposite of what I just explained.

 

Here's a picture annotating what I see, and how it could be useful to you. Now, go back and look over days and days and weeks and weeks and see if this holds up. I've noticed it happening over the past few days on your charts, but would be interested to see if it happens often.

 

2401d1187276909-8-16-07-general-trade-log-8-16-07t11-20070816-113714.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ok Abe,

 

Since I love designing systems I want you to check this one out. This is just the beginning, and I'm not going to take it any further, but I want you to check this and report back on what you've found.

 

What I would do based on your chart today is watch for small range BODY candles. With the same amount of volume flowing into a smaller range body, this is showing that people are wanting to keep price where it is in order to accumulate their positions. This equates to a change in momentum coming up.

 

The steps to take for the system I've come up with are as follows:

 

1: Watch for 2 small range body candles. This is VERY discretionary. I define them as being smaller than half of the body of the previous candle. If you get 2 of them in a row after an upmove,

 

2: Then watch for a larger body DOWN candle and

 

3: Enter at the CLOSE of that candle to go short.

 

place a protective stop above the swing high of that move (or swing low if you're going long) and do NOT exit until you get a reversal signal, which would be the opposite of what I just explained.

 

Here's a picture annotating what I see, and how it could be useful to you. Now, go back and look over days and days and weeks and weeks and see if this holds up. I've noticed it happening over the past few days on your charts, but would be interested to see if it happens often.

 

2401d1187276909-8-16-07-general-trade-log-8-16-07t11-20070816-113714.jpg

 

Looks like a solid plan Tin. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes Brownsfan. I'm still using Sierra chart. Why do you say they are not pure VBC's?

 

Abe,

From my look at them, the Sierra charts are what I call 'TradeStation' VBC's, which means that the volume threshold you set is more of an approximation. What I mean is that on your 1250 VBC, a couple things could be happening:

 

1) The actual amount of contracts traded in that candle are 1250 OR higher.

2) The amount of trades and contracts that is actually taking place is not what is being reported on the chart for some reason.

 

#1 occurs on some charting platforms, like TradeStation, where they do not break trades up to construct the candle. So if your setting is 1250 and when your candle is at 1249, if an order for 300 comes through, your candle is actually 1549 (1249 + 300). More info in this thread - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/volume-based-charts-request-for-help-1630.html

 

#2 is a little trickier, but in a nutshell, my 5000 VBC on Sierra isn't anywhere close to a 5000 VBC on Open ECry's charts. I tried to use an add-on that Kiwi in the Sierra chart forum designed, but it's not working in the sense of capping each candle at 5000 and then starting a new one. I have no idea what is going on behind the scenes, but when compared to the OEC chart, it's not even close.

 

I have now seen this at TradeStation and Sierra. I'm surprised that neither offers a workaround, but I guess constant volume charts are not significant enough for them to design the fix. As of now, MultiCharts still appears to offer one of the most comprehensive charting packages I have seen, which includes pure VBC's - whatever level you set your threshold at, that's where the candles start/end. No guessing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

 

I have now seen this at TradeStation and Sierra. I'm surprised that neither offers a workaround, but I guess constant volume charts are not significant enough for them to design the fix. As of now, MultiCharts still appears to offer one of the most comprehensive charting packages I have seen, which includes pure VBC's - whatever level you set your threshold at, that's where the candles start/end. No guessing.

 

It's because folks haven't complained enough about the inaccuracy in their platforms.

 

Another charting software which has addressed this problem correctly is Ensign software, as noted in that other thread which was referenced.

 

Curious though, aren't you still able to use Multicharts with OEC data? Or are you stuck waiting on MC to apply the OEC API upgrade?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 19th December 2024.   Federal Reserve Sparks NASDAQ’s Sharpest Selloff of 2024!   The NASDAQ fell more than 3.60% after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but gave hawkish comments. The stock market saw its largest decline witnessed in 2024 so far, as investors opted to cash in profits and not risk in the short-medium term. What did Chairman Powell reveal, and how does it impact the NASDAQ? The NASDAQ Falls To December Lows After Fed Guidance! The NASDAQ and US stock market in general saw a considerable decline after the press conference of the Federal Reserve. The USA100 ended the day 3.60% lower and saw only 1 of its 100 stocks avoid a decline. Of the most influential stocks the worst performers were Tesla (-8.28%), Broadcom (-6.91%) and Amazon (-4.60%).     When monitoring the broader stock market, similar conditions are seen confirming the investor sentiment is significantly lower and not solely related to the tech industry. The worst performing sectors are the housing and banking sectors. However, investors should also note that the decline was partially due to a build-up of profits over the past months. As a result, investors could easily sell and reduce exposure to cash in profits and lower their risk appetite. Analysts note that despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the Chairman provided a positive outlook. He highlighted optimism for the economy and the employment sector. Therefore, many analysts continue to believe that investors will buy the dip, even if it’s not imminent. A Hawkish Federal Reserve And Powell’s Guidance Even though traditional economics suggests a rate cut benefits the stock market, the market had already priced in the cut. As a result, the rate cut could no longer influence prices. Investors are now focusing on how the Federal Reserve plans to cut in 2025. This is what triggered the selloff and the decline. Investors were looking for indications of 3-4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and for the first cut to be in March. However, analysts advise that the forward guidance by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, clearly indicates 2 rate adjustments. In addition to this, analysts believe the Fed will now cut next in May 2025. The average expectation now is that the Federal Reserve will cut 0.25% on two occasions in 2025. The Fed also advised that it is too early to know the effect of tariffs and “when the path is uncertain, you go slower”. This added to the hawkish tone of the central bank. However, surveys indicate that 15% of analysts believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates at a faster pace. As a result, the US Dollar Index rose 1.25% and Bond Yields to a 7-month high. For investors, this makes other investment categories more attractive and stocks more expensive for foreign investors. However, the average decline the NASDAQ has seen before investors buy the dip is 13% ($19,320). This will also be a key level for investors if the NASDAQ continues to decline. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis Due to the bearish volatility, the price of the NASDAQ is trading below all major Moving Averages and Oscillators on the 2-Hour chart. After retracement the oscillators are no longer indicating an oversold price and continue to point to a bearish bias. Sell indications are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $21,222.60 in the short-term.       Key Takeaways: A hawkish Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% and indicates only 2 rate cuts in 2025! The stock market witnesses its worst day of 2024 due to the Fed’s hawkish forward guidance. Economists do not expect a rate cut before May 2025. Housing and bank stocks fell more than 4%. Investors are cashing in their gains and not looking to risk while the Fed is unlikely to cut again until May 2025. The US Dollar Index rises close to its highest level since November 2022. US Bond Yields also rise to their highest since May 2024. The NASDAQ’s average decline in 2024 before investors opt to purchase the dip is 13%. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • SNAP stock at 11.38 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?SNAP
    • DLTR Dollar Tree stock watch, pull back to 70.32 support area with bullish indicators, also watch DG at https://stockconsultant.com/?DLTR
    • AKBA Akebia Therapeutics stock, nice trend with pull back to 1.87 support area and bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?AKBA
    • CFLT Confluent stock watch, good trend with a pull back to 31.73 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CFLT
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.