Wolfe

[waveslider 10]

Parallel Channels in $SPX.X

 

Markets move randomly? No balance in the markets? You see it everyday on every time frame.

 

Market geometry is so fun (when it works) !!

[waveslider 10]

SMH semiconductor ETF, Weekly chart.

 

We are buying this based on technical signals, but the WW pattern is there too.

 

It's right on the line, at an inflection point. Breaking out on the TRIX pattern daily chart, weekly at TRIX support and turning up. Looking at the weekly chart volume has declined. Holding in a mild parallel channel uptrend.

[bubba 10]

here's an update of the Es daily patterns i had posted recently. the bearish wedge has been breached/ invalidated. the bullish scenario is still intact however - and not far from point 5. also, it has a familiar 'Gartley' look, that could be forming as well.

 

(the failed bearish WW formation is what i had thought OAC was referring to

in a previous post. after re-reading his comment, it's obviously something entirely different.)

[thrunner 10]

Similar to what bub saw in the ES. Three Wws in the attached png. The second one worked, will the current and third (numbered) bullish Ww work? After today, countertrend traders could be few and far between.

[bubba 10]

gawd, there's another

1/2 position here - addon below the yellow lol

kidding of course - could work tho

Edited January 5, 2008 by bubba

[MrPaul 10]

Lots of information and chart examples here:

 

http://www.voodootrader.com/wolfewave.htm

[waveslider 10]

I'm right with you bubba and Thrunner -- seeing the same thing... like that capitulation day friday gap down and all

[waveslider 10]

Think we have one here boys and girls... everyone else must be seeing this as a double bottom (Using the end of Nov. lows).

 

My only concern was the momentum that built on the movement from point 4 to point 5. I think it will be a tough crawl back up.

 

Here's my chart of the SPY, 60minute chart. I threw in the Andrew's chart for perspective...

 

I'm long again.

[bubba 10]

dang that looks like a nice place to get long. how would you play it, on such a big timeframe? i think i would zoom to a fast chart - pick a nice spot hopefully.

i guess thats the generic play tho...

[waveslider 10]

It's a good question bubba. This is still a high risk entry that hasn't confirmed a higher movement. I am following a system that buys weakness, it will exit relatively quickly on strength here based on the daily time frame. In the past I have had over 75% profitable trades using this methodology.

As far as trading off the wolfe wave, I would wait for an impulse move higher and then pullback.

 

Looking at the S&P 100 (OEX) it looks a little more like a descending channel. I will look to take some off at this Andrew's line >> >

[bubba 10]

welp, here we are. this should be interesting.

i say we bounce here.

high risk - no doubt.

if this level fails - how far do we fall?

 

64$ question i know.

[bubba 10]

here's a small timeframe ww in progress.

AH tho - hate messin with 'em in AH.

 

it is with the trend, which brings up another question.

are WW's with or against the overall trend significant?

[thrunner 10]

The $INDU Dow is showing a possible Ww bull pattern as well.

[waveslider 10]

Yes I see that too. What I think a lot of people are looking at is the gap down on 1/04.

 

Gap analysis has been around for a long time and people look for the gap location to mark the 50% point of a move. If you measure it out we are about there now.

 

This gap location is the current balance pt of the market.

 

The risk reward is skewed to the upside currently, in my opinion...

 

Hey that was a nice intraday one you noticed, bubba! Were you able to get a trade out on it?

[bubba 10]

Hey that was a nice intraday one you noticed, bubba! Were you able to get a trade out on it?

 

nosir, i watched it abit tho - you could have captured a point or 2 maybe, but the pattern reversed pretty quickly. it would be rare for me to put a trade on in AH. honestly, it's rare i put any trades on. work most every day, plus - being a N00b, gawd.. but i'm working on it

 

[thrunner 10]

ES 1200 anybody?

Looks like every bearish Ww EPA is hit and every bullish Ww rejected. There is a convergence of some bearish Ww EPAs from all the way back in 10/17/01 There has got to be some buyers there, you think?

[OAC 10]

ES 1200 anybody?

Looks like every bearish Ww EPA is hit and every bullish Ww rejected. There is a convergence of some bearish Ww EPAs from all the way back in 10/17/01 There has got to be some buyers there, you think?

 

The term Wolfe Wave came from the gentleman who originated it: Mr. Bill Wolfe. For many years, he had a course on his website selling for $3000 and I believe still do.

My friend took the course and I had the previlege of peeking at it at one time. I can tell you that he hardly uses the EPA, and most of his 1-3-5 lines are nearly horizontal.

[OAC 10]

Let me clear some of the confusions that may be out there. There is a difference between the 1-4 target line and the EPA. EPA is defined as the apex of the 1-4 target line when we 've arrived at the ETA which is the point where 2-4 line intersects the 1-3 line.

[waveslider 10]

Hey Thrunner, OAC - -

 

OAC has a great point about the lines being horizontal - -the pattern should occur in a real sideways range. OAC, I like your avatar shot. - have you ever been surfing?

 

Thrunner - - OAC is right about the ETA component, it is very faulty - not really worth watching in my opinion. Right of you to notice that when WWs aren't working, there is a strong trend intact and the mini-rallies that never reach targets are just providing fuel for a further move in the trend direction.

[bubba 10]

here's a pretty acceptable WW (at least to me) in progress as i type.

sorry i haven't posted any lately, job schedule changed

[Tasuki 10]

here's a pretty acceptable WW (at least to me) in progress as i type.(

 

bubba, I'm trying to reproduce your chart, but I can't get it to work. I've got Tradestation, but I can't find any setting for "Vol Bars". To me, volume bars in Tradestation are "Share" bars", and if you start with "Format Symbol" then go to settings, and click "volume" you get a chart that is labelled as "Share Bars". Furthermore, on the ES, 137 share bars would be WAY too fast to be useful. So, PLEASE tell me what you're doing to get "137 Vol Bars" on Tradestation? Could this be a new feature in version 8.3? (I'm still back on TS version 8.2).

Please explain!

 

Thanks, Taz

[bubba 10]

w/ ts2000i 137v = 13,700 volume bars.

sorry for the confusion Tasuki.

[Tasuki 10]

w/ ts2000i 137v = 13,700 volume bars.

sorry for the confusion Tasuki.

 

Thanks, Bubba. I didn't know the old 2000i terminology.

Out of sheer curiosity, why pick the number 13,700? Anything special about that setting?

[bubba 10]

hehe, nosir.. i just pick a speed that is slow, medium, or fast basically. a chart that reflects the rhythm i'm looking for.

i never bought in to the 'special' number theory. but what do i know? not much really..

[waveslider 10]

hey tasuki, I don't know if you are aware of this but there is a setting I just found under format symbol that asks whether you would like to you trade volume or tick count for tick volume. Just thought I'd pass that along