Wolfe

[thrunner 10]

just me and Tasuki here for a while.

Here is a chart to join you companies of Ww followers and lurkers . I wonder if this is a valid setup and would a Ww taken such a trade:

[waveslider 10]

Glad to have you here thrunner, and sparrow ideally we can put these up real time for evaluation some day.

 

It is critical for the #5 pt to break or at least touch the 1-3 line. Another thing is that this pattern works best in congestion. The #5 pt is usually not a significant high/low.

 

You are correct in identifying the geometry in this market, but it's not a proper wolfe wave.

 

This brings up an important point. Pattern identification can be a little fuzzy, but certain rules have to exist. The reason I point this out is that it is too easy to "see what you want to see". Rules are there to increase objectivity as much as possible. That being said, no 2 patterns are alike - - so there will always be different interpretations.

 

Keep 'em coming and we can pick them apart together.

[waveslider 10]

Here's just a potential one (getting bored with this market)... in YM.D on a 466 tick chart just to illustrate how to keep an eye out for these.

 

Firstly, the #2 point attempted a breakout, failed.

 

Point #3 takes out point #1.

 

Point #4 rises and attracts short sellers.

 

Point #5 should shake out longs and give short sellers conviction. If this 4-5 move fails, the pattern dictates a move back to the 1-4 line.

 

This is really early, point 4 hasn't even formed. You see this kind of thing all the time and the pattern doesn't play out properly.

[waveslider 10]

Forgot to insert the chart....

[Sparrow 10]

How about this one, it's not exactly out of the book.

 

Thanks for all your help waveslider.

[waveslider 10]

It's not bad, sparrow.

 

The one red flag I see is that I would have liked to see the #4 point dip a little further.

 

From your chart I think I would have liked to see the point #5 have some kind of resistance. It might be there when you zoom out, but I can't see it here - so personally the momentum at point #5 would have made me nervous. Although I did see divergence in the indicator you had up.

 

It would have been best to take a conservative entry on this one (breakdown of the 2-4 line)..

[Sparrow 10]

It was a false break of a range, took out the last high by 6 ticks.

[waveslider 10]

nice. ES 3 min chart ahead of fed..

[waveslider 10]

whooooo. man these days are crazy

[bubba 10]

hope you cashed in on that one WS.

:applaud:

that long time frame chart i posted a while back is looking pretty. i expect it would have been a tuff trade to put on however. maybe a sellstop below 2-4 line would have been the proper play...

[waveslider 10]

I was short NQ,ES,YM and ER2, also long the inverse ETF's and long bonds ETF. Exited most of the futures contracts early (except YM) and got caught up in some currency futures trades that sort of hurt, learned my lesson about that..

 

Here's another perspective... Andrews' - - Guarantee you there were a lot of traders with this line on their chart. (SPY 120 min chart). It seems like a self-fulfilling prophesy these days.

[bubba 10]

i've tried to learn the pitchfork.. it's an interesting tool. my software doesn't allow me to manually apply it, but i do have a 'canned' pitchfork. i'm never sure if my settings are appropriate. do you draw them yourself WS, or is it an indicator?

[OAC 10]

Sometimes Wolf Waves's 1-4 line is the same as Andrew's medianline.

[Tasuki 10]

How about this one, it's not exactly out of the book.

 

.

 

Hey Sparrow, glad to see you here too (thanks for the help with Ninjatrader--I still can't figure out where to find that Microsoft program I need).

 

Anyway, like waveslider said, it would really help to identify the points of the Wolfe Wave so we're all on the same page when analyzing a chart.

 

If I'm seeing what you're seeing, then...no, actually, I'm not at all clear on where you would draw your pivot points.

 

General info for all:

 

Point #2 should sucker in the Greedy Breakout (or Breakdown) traders. In other words, point #2 should pierce the resistance or support level immediately to the left on the chart, making breakout traders say to themselves, "here we go, let 'er rip" and they get in at exactly the wrong point.

 

Point #5 should scare the pants off these same breakout/breakdown traders, and make them finally throw in the towel, selling (or buying to cover) at exactly the wrong point. They've stupidly held on all the way from point #2 through point #3 and point #4 and now they've given up on the trade. Ergo, they very best point #5 pivots are ones which form very rapidly, with a nasty, steep drop (or rise) from point #4 to point #5, and also, the point #5 should definitely break the pivot at point #3--when that level is broken, it's the last straw for these n'er-do-well breakout/breakdown traders, and they give up at point #5, only to tear their hair out when they see price reverse smartly.

 

Hope this little psychology lesson helps when hunting for Wolves (definitely not an endangered species in the forest of the markets, but not every wedge makes a Wolfe).

 

BTW, virtually all of this comes from Waveslider, who's the pro here. Hope I've represented it well. If not, blame me, not him.

 

Glad to see more participation here.

[Sparrow 10]

Wow that was excellent Taz :thumbs up::thumbs up:, of course the other contributions too. Thanks a lot for that.

[OAC 10]

Or if you draw a parallel channel from pt2 parallel to 1-3 sometimes gives you pt4

[waveslider 10]

I draw it manually (andrews' line). It takes an eye and getting used to, I don't think you can always have an accurate line when drawn mechanically.

 

OAC, that is very true -rare - , but a good extra confirmation. Observing where/how the current Andrews' line passes through price is critical in its use - most people overlook that.

[OAC 10]

Also I would like to look into exactly how Wolfe Waves relate to Elliott Waves, can anybody give me a head up on that ?

[Tasuki 10]

I draw it manually (andrews' line). It takes an eye and getting used to, I don't think you can always have an accurate line when drawn mechanically.

 

OAC, that is very true -rare - , but a good extra confirmation. Observing where/how the current Andrews' line passes through price is critical in its use - most people overlook that.

 

wave, OAC, could one of you fine folks give an example of the lines you're talking about, SVP? I'm really interested in the connection between Andrews pitchforks, which I've studied through Tim Morge, and Wolfe Waves, but I'm not clear on how the two work together...a picture would be worth a thousand words. Tx, Taz

[OAC 10]

Tasuki:

The relationship is simple. If you go to Bill Wolfe's website, he said the key thing WW measures is balance. You have 3 things: WW, Pitchfork, and parallell channel all measuring balance, the lines are bound to run into each other.

Just like if your Stochastic is oversold, then your RSI is probably also oversold because both measure momentum

[Tasuki 10]

Tasuki:

The relationship is simple. If you go to Bill Wolfe's website, he said the key thing WW measures is balance. You have 3 things: WW, Pitchfork, and parallell channel all measuring balance, the lines are bound to run into each other.

Just like if your Stochastic is oversold, then your RSI is probably also oversold because both measure momentum

 

OAC, I've read Wolfe's "balance" argument, and I don't buy it, probably because I don't see anything being balanced. What I DO see, however, is the pitchfork in the Wolfe Wave, thanks to your great chart. The Chinese were right with that "picture worth a thousand words" proverb.

 

If you can explain the balance thing, I'm sure I'm not the only one who would be benefitted. For starters, where's the fulcrum in the chart? All I see is fear and greed careening from one pivot to another like a drunken sailor. I see no reason nor rationale for "balance"--to me that sounds like "over-intellectualization." ....but, I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong....always willing to learn.

[waveslider 10]

ES chart, 233 tick.

 

Not an ideal one, but I just had to post it. The target was perfect.

 

In a proper bear wave the #3 pt would be higher than the #1 point.

 

It pays to pay attention to any false break, find where the destination might be, examine risk/reward. This one had it all, under VWAP with intraday downtrend intact.

[bubba 10]

thanks ws, that was a nice 1. I really appreciate your comments on the nuances you see. do you ever scalp a bit on these, say wave 3 --> 4, or even 4 --> 5?

[OAC 10]

ES chart, 233 tick.

 

Not an ideal one, but I just had to post it. The target was perfect.

 

In a proper bear wave the #3 pt would be higher than the #1 point.

 

It pays to pay attention to any false break, find where the destination might be, examine risk/reward. This one had it all, under VWAP with intraday downtrend intact.

 

It is a failed Cup-and-Handle, although the handle looks big compared to the cup.

[bubba 10]

this pattern looked kinda interesting - looks like a pattern in a pattern.

see what you think..

*i think you could make the case of a bullish WW inside the small one as well.