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waveslider

Wolfe

By waveslider, in Market News & Analysis

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elovemer    10

elovemer
Posted

.... it is a bull M

 

otherwise known as a Gartley

 

Not sure what that was elovemer,

 

just wanted to note on this forum that the WW pattern identified has now played out.

It was identified in early july in post 543.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/2/wolfe-2229-55.html

I think there were 60+ ES points to be gained, my charts are down right now.

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

First time poster here.

Here's my WW analysis on SPY, FWIW:

 

we'll drop to point 1 from here, then move to point 2 due to a small bullish wave from 10/27.

Once point 2 is reached (i.e., over the 11/10 high) then the bearish wave (starting from long time ago, out from the left of the screen) to 8/27 low (point 2), then point 3 is 11/10, point 4 is P1 in the picture, and point 5 is P2 in the picture. The target is then P3.

Both P1,P2, and P3 are estimates, where P1 is from the far left to find the 'least resistance' from 8/27 to 11/10.

 

Sorry don't know how to attach pictures..

 

2010-11-19-TOS_CHARTS.jpg

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BlowFish    10

BlowFish
Posted
please re-read the materials from Bill Wolfe.

WW (bullish or bearish) are all 5 points, the target line is from point 1 to point 4.

 

But there is no point 4 on the image? I think what Waveslider is saying is that a WW requires points 1 2 3 & 4 to be 'in' (described by price action that has already occurred). In your image price has not reached point 1 yet and does not have points 4 & 5 drawn at all. A truly remarkable feet if it pans out :). Could you draw in a 1-4 line and your final target projected from the intersection of 1-4 line and point 5?

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

Apologize if it was not clear in the 1st post. But if you re-read my post, and use the revised picture, it should be more clear.

P1, P2, P3 are meant for figure reference, NOT the point # for WW.

 

While/smaller font # are the wave counts for the smaller, bullish wave, yellowish/bigger font # is for the main bearish wave.

 

We'll see today's action will surpass the smaller bearish wave 1-4 line!

 

Comments welcome.

 

2010-11-19-TOS_CHARTS | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

So far it's still on track. How low is P1 is the real challenge, as I said, it's my estimate.

 

Also notice the on 4/16 there's a 'cross' of the price action against the p1/p4 line for the bigger bearish wave, this is what Bill Wolfe called 'Pressure points' and it usually means the bearish wave's P4 to P5 will be very straight. This, combined with the estimate of P1, makes a real challenge to catch the big rebound!

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

today's action was a surprise, probably Uncle Ben at work, just look at TLT and TBT!

 

Attached are two pictures, one is QQQQ, one is SPY.

 

Notice the bearish wave just completed yesterday (target).

Sicne the target is higher than circle 2, which is also P3 of the potential larger bullish wave, this bullish wave has not formed yet!

On the other hand, as long as QQQQ is not over the recent high of 54, the even bigger bearish wave has not formed.

 

Same for SPY.

 

Truly bull vs bear now!

 

But looking at the EURO and Dollar actions, my assesment of the lower first then higher is still valid.

 

2010-11-25-TOS_CHARTS

2010-11-25-TOS_CHARTS1

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

587 is more clarification of 582, since you guys asked.

the latest is of smaller scales, the last few days hourly chart.

If all my charts are inspected in detailed, you'll find they're consistent.

 

Waves are of different scales, and always running, smaller one down to min, large to multi-years.

 

Once you're well trained, you'll be able to spot them in all scales.

 

Examples are:

 

2010-11-25-TOS_CHARTS3 | SPX 15 Yrs monthly chart

 

and

 

2010-11-25-TOS_CHARTS4 | SPX 3 yr daily chart

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

The past two days' actions are most likely due to "the bernanke put"!

 

They just don't understand, if the price drops below the low of 11/16, making it a point 5, then the bullish wave is valid, then the 1 to 4 rebound would happen....

 

As Bill Wolfe once told me : "This system works for all 'freely traded' market, draw your own conclusion!"

 

See SPX Daily

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suriNotes    11

suriNotes
Posted

Hi nandv,

 

I am no expert in Wolfe Waves. I am trying to understand your charts on posts #593 and #594. Doesn't P3 and P5 should be lower than P1? Also P1 should be at least a minor SwingPoint? Both charts in posts #593 and #594 show P3 > P1 and P1 is not a SwingPoint.

 

Pl. explain.

 

Regards,

Suri

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

In Wolfe wave, there are NO requirements of P3, and P5 smaller than P1 in a bearish wave. As a matter of fact, often times, P5 will 'overshoot' higher than P3, making the 'short' even sweeter going from P5 to Target. And there's no such term called SwingPoint in Wolfe wave, at least not from Bill.

 

It's evident from Bill's website that the true Wolfe wave technique is VERY different from what you see from the Internet. From my personal experience, taking class from Bill is the best investment I've made. Lots of hard work from your own, of course, in order to master the technique. Real charts are rarely text book style, being able to spot one in real time, be it 5 min, days or months, is the real challenge. Plus the external 'Uncle Ben' factor make analysis very difficult.

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

Today's action makes it more and more likely the smaller bullish wave (please re-read my thread) is completed. Also as stated in #588, the bigger bullish wave P4 to P5 will be 'swift'. Indeed the last two days actions are almost 'straight up‘.

 

Once the price action is over the recent high (circle) then the bearish wave is formed. But since P5 often times will overshoot, there's no estimate of how high it will go before start dropping.

 

today's SPY hourly

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suriNotes    11

suriNotes
Posted
In Wolfe wave, there are NO requirements of P3, and P5 smaller than P1 in a bearish wave. As a matter of fact, often times, P5 will 'overshoot' higher than P3, making the 'short' even sweeter going from P5 to Target. And there's no such term called SwingPoint in Wolfe wave, at least not from Bill.

 

It's evident from Bill's website that the true Wolfe wave technique is VERY different from what you see from the Internet. From my personal experience, taking class from Bill is the best investment I've made. Lots of hard work from your own, of course, in order to master the technique. Real charts are rarely text book style, being able to spot one in real time, be it 5 min, days or months, is the real challenge. Plus the external 'Uncle Ben' factor make analysis very difficult.

 

Hi nandv,

 

Thanks for your response.

 

Seems like you have good knowledge of Wolfe Waves and I am trying to clarify what I read and what I know. I have also not taken Bill Wolfe's course/class so I cannot compare what Bill Wolfe says and what others say. But I am sure you agree that every pattern must have clear *RULES* on how to identify and how to trade. From 'StreetSmarts' book (Larry Connors and Linda Raschke), the rules clearly say multiple times in Chapter 15 titled WOLFEWAVES that P3 must be Lower than P1 and P5 must form on/below the Trendline connecting P1 and P3 (vice-versa for bullish/bearish), suggesting P5 is at least at the same level as P3 or Lower than P3. My research on Wolfe Wave says P1 cannot be arbitrary, it must be at least a minor (minimum strength of 2) SwingHigh or SwingLow. Also, P1 to P2 must have symmetry with P3 to P4 both in Price and Time. I do agree with the rules from Larry Connors/Linda Raschke's book as they clearly define proper channels and action/reaction lines to trade.

 

As you say the rules from Bill Wolfe are different from rules published else-where, please educate me on his rules to identify the WW pattern.

 

Regards,

Suri

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

Some additional comments on this thread, in predicting the market path.

 

1. It is NOT recommended to predict, or even act on the WW waves other than from P5 to target. Ie., The charts I have posted so far are possible paths, based on potential WW formation.

 

2. In predicting the overall market path, one should look at all major indices to get confirmation. Today (I should have done this much sooner) we look at the RUT as belows, and the smaller bullish wave is formed (P5 is lower than P3), and we're on our way to the target (following the P1/P4 line). With this, there's no point doubting whether Q and SPY are still waiting for the P5 to go lower than P3....

 

The last chart is, once the smaller bullish wave completes, then the larger bearish wave will form, now all we have to do is to wait for the P5 overshoot to complete. This again, is a MAJOR challenge. Often times the clue is big spikes in volume.

 

RUT hourly

 

RUT daily

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nandv    10

nandv
Posted

Suri, thanks for the feedback.

 

All I can say is the book you referred is NOT correct in describing the WW rules.

My advise is to study my charts (there're many of them now) and you'll see the common themes.

 

 

Second advise of course, is to contact Bill for the class.

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