Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Last one worked PERFECTLY. Lots of these showing up recently....

And here's another one....

 

That's SPY on a half hour chart , sort of an ugly format - sorry...

5aa70efa1a90b_ScreenHunter_01Jul_0810_16.thumb.gif.e2ea7ef7eb400ae932f054aed4db3f39.gif

Edited by waveslider
symbol info

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All I can say is, wow - -that is one of the nicest ones I have ever seen.

 

This one is perfect because it fails above the range (marked with horiz. white lines) and below the range.

 

#2 point gave people plenty of time to get long.

 

#4 to #5 was steep and dramatic, beginning with a gap and hardly looking back.

5aa70f0021233_ScreenHunter_01Jul_1613_11.thumb.jpg.3ad3a5ea6fd7880719c68d662760bf93.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here we go again -

 

Ever since the market has made this steep move up with no pullbacks, I have been suspicious. Direct sustained moves through resistance are usually a run on stops engineered to create fear. This move has fear written all over it.

 

Fear is what creates a perfect 4-5 move in a wolfe wave, so here we go.

 

Daily charts of $spx.x and FDX.

 

The S&P point #1 starts at the 50% level of a range.

 

The other chart I have here is for Fedex, what is interesting is that it has the same WW pattern, but if you run an Andrews pitchfork on the pattern, the centerline runs perfectly with the WW line. I shorted a little today.

5aa70f0aa9460_ScreenHunter_03Jul_3019_39.thumb.gif.70eef9036dc520fcc1561c77f37d8310.gif

5aa70f0ab55b8_ScreenHunter_02Jul_3019_28.thumb.jpg.37616da36aaac084341e015f44fa1754.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Suri,

I agree with your broadening top situation.

If you look at the chart I posted, the #1 point is further back.

So point 4 is slightly below point #1.

Having a hard time believing in the rally, internals and volume have just been horrible, so that leaves just short covering powering this one.

The only standout is the nasdaq, which is powering along well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am bit puzzled... I thought I posted this chart in the morning

along with my previous post and now I do not see :(

 

Anyway, Here is the Broadening Pattern targets if it materializes.

Broadening Patterns are rare but reliable.

 

Some exhaustion rally may still push SPX a bit higher.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=12635&stc=1&d=1249258338

Broadening_Flat_SPX2.gif.875af637f0a41f1463887c3201e70088.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

traderdan,

Compare the first and second charts you posted. The second one was just about perfect, but the first one wasn't 100% Wolfe-like, so to speak. Note that pivot 1 in the second chart was right in the middle of the range, and that pivot 2 dipped to new lows, scaring the pants off retail traders (that's what pivot 2 is spoze to do). The first chart lacked those salient features. It still might work out, of course. Just thought I'd point out those details for everyone's edification.

Tasuki

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see what you're saying. The first one didn't work out in this case.

 

traderdan,

Compare the first and second charts you posted. The second one was just about perfect, but the first one wasn't 100% Wolfe-like, so to speak. Note that pivot 1 in the second chart was right in the middle of the range, and that pivot 2 dipped to new lows, scaring the pants off retail traders (that's what pivot 2 is spoze to do). The first chart lacked those salient features. It still might work out, of course. Just thought I'd point out those details for everyone's edification.

Tasuki

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
is it a valid wolfe wave pattern?

 

Simple answer: No. this is a rolling chop, not a Wolfe Wave. Look at previous examples and read my psychological description in earlier posts of this thread to understand the WW.

Tasuki

Edited by Tasuki

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am also studying Wolfe Wave. From what has just recently been explained to me, points 1-3 and points 2-4 must converge to be a valid Wolfe Wave pattern. I have not seen those converging elements in most of the charts posted on this thread. Waveslider, Suri....thoughts?

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=16870&stc=1&d=1261883188

5aa70f8a50642_wolfewaveuj.thumb.gif.eb089ba68c84cdba3c2d588d766c82fb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are correct that the pattern should converge. Also, the lesson I have learned that is most valuable is that volatility should be high, and the move to point five should be a very fast move.

The chart you posted (don't know what to call you with that user name!) seems to be grinding higher, I doubt it's a WW, though your point one and two look excellent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Waveslider. I came across a site called TheHarmonicTrader...I downloaded his free PDF and was wondering if you had seen his work. Think I will check out Suri's book also.. I am not constantly profitable yet due to MM and RR skills. I like the idea of these patterns (not wolfe wave) being formed by the FIB ratios. Thanks again for you input.

 

Don't worry about the Hesychast thing....you can call me Ron. Peace be unto you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Tresor
I am not constantly profitable yet due to MM and RR skills.

 

What is MM and RR? By the way there is no safer way to pick tops and bottoms than Wolfe. And by the way not all Wolfes must have converging lines to be valid. 100% of my trades are Wolfes with 1/4 having diverging lines. Just my 2 cents.

 

Study Wolfe and nothing else. My today's trade enclosed. Moderate $734 per lot during a two hour morning trade. There are about 10 - 12 such trades during week.

 

Regards

WW1.thumb.png.71abd015195b4a68ddab11d1bfabd26e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.