Wolfe

[OAC 10]

This is a Wolfe Wave that formed since the beginning of the month as appeared on my ES 15 minute chart. Looks like it hit the 1-4 target line and died. But that point 5 was a little tricky to narrow down. As a matter of fact it has way exceeded the standard guideline for point 5 as set forth by Bill Wolfe.

 

 

[bubba 10]

perfect combo

[OAC 10]

Yes, that is a valid one. But I saw a bigger Gartley pattern after that measured move, AB=CD

[156 10]

I personally don't like waves - neither elliott nor these but here is some manuals I found that might be of help if anyone is interested

 

 

.. By the way searching these wolfe waves I found forex-tsd forum's thread about them and the guy who started it, and also who posted most about it edited and deleted all his posts maybe he found his own grail in them :P

Wolfe Waves.pdf

WolfeWave System.pdf

[OAC 10]

but here is some manuals I found that might be of help if anyone is interested

 

 

 

Just to let you know, those manuals are reprint of LBR's book, "Street Smart". According to Bill Wolfe, they are not accurate.

[brutusdog 10]

hi guys,

 

looks like a bearish wolfie setting up here on the ym with a decent target,

 

cant post chart now but will do later.

[Tasuki 10]

Just to let you know, those manuals are reprint of LBR's book, "Street Smart". According to Bill Wolfe, they are not accurate.

 

Just had a quick look at the two pdf files. They seem pretty accurate to me. Doesn't surprise me that Bill Wolfe, whose trying to parlay a pattern into a career, would say they're inaccurate--it's in his economic self-interest to say so.

 

Well, it would make for an interesting discussion if someone can find some mistake in Linda's work. If you do, please post it!

[OAC 10]

Just had a quick look at the two pdf files. They seem pretty accurate to me. Doesn't surprise me that Bill Wolfe, whose trying to parlay a pattern into a career, would say they're inaccurate--it's in his economic self-interest to say so.

 

 

Just ignore him then. i am only quoting what he said only because his last name is Wolfe.

[duzntmttr 10]

What are the warning signs that the wolfe wave is about to fail ?

I mean , I have seen perfect patterns following all the rules , nice turnarounds from the line connecting points 1-3-5 and giving you all the confidence that the target 6 will be reached. Then , suddenly poof , the pattern falls apart.

What are the indicators that one should watch out ? I mean a warning sign that the wave is about to fall ?

 

Thanks in advance .

[waveslider 10]

Its all about the move from point 4 to point 5. If this is choppy, the pattern is either negated, or the target becomes closer. Move your target line to be less aggressive in chop.

 

WW and Andrews are 2 methods that have been working very well in these choppy markets recently.

[bubba 10]

weekly ES

 

:thumbs up::thumbs up:

[waveslider 10]

Hey Bubba,

 

A bit ugly since it looks like not so much a range as trend - -

But I will be the first to say that the ones that look "perfect" are the worst ones!!!

I really dont like the 4-5 wave- its so choppy...

I DO like the volume pattern, that looks pretty good especially at point 3 and 5.

 

Regardless the 1-3 line you drew is an important channel line, thanks for pointing this out.

[bubba 10]

thx for your point of view ws.. always appreciated.

price actually violated the 1-3 line (yesterday?).. anyway.. it quickly jumped 30-40pts or so. as i type, it's right back near the low. we'll see.

[waveslider 10]

This is more like what I'm talkin about,

5 min chart, here's what I like:

 

Its more horizontal

Nice volume move off point 3

nice volume move into point 2

nice direct move from 4 to 5

nice triple touch to 1-3 line

the 1-4 line was touched once from the upside

 

good potential for a 40 pt move if price can stay above 1165.

[duzntmttr 10]

One more thing that I noticed is that if you draw a smaller wave with the next peak after point 3 as mini point 4 and next touch as mini point 5 , than the target line from 1 to mini4 , perfectly points to major 4.

[thrunner 10]

good potential for a 40 pt move if price can stay above 1165.

 

Nice call on the 40 pt ES. How about a 100 ES point day ? :o

6.01 million contracts traded 9/18/08, that is probably a record. 100 point range in ES in about 8 hours.

They are probably trying to gap this up to reduce selling by the longs and force covering by the shorts.

[waveslider 10]

How about that?

Here's the after shot of that chart pattern I put up the other day.

It looked good to me, but to be honest I often get skeptical with this pattern on the higher time frames.

I hope some of you guys got those moves today, crazy rides. I had got some of that first 40 pts, and quite a bit out of the second move.

The key was how that 1-3 line acted as support after price blast through it, from there it was the easiest 20-30 points I've ever seen!

This is a good one to study.

[duzntmttr 10]

How about that?

Here's the after shot of that chart pattern I put up the other day.

It looked good to me, but to be honest I often get skeptical with this pattern on the higher time frames.

I hope some of you guys got those moves today, crazy rides. I had got some of that first 40 pts, and quite a bit out of the second move.

The key was how that 1-3 line acted as support after price blast through it, from there it was the easiest 20-30 points I've ever seen!

This is a good one to study.

 

Even the time predicted by 135 and 24 interesection worked perfectly.

[waveslider 10]

Interesting pt. here...

 

this is the second touch of the Andrew's line, also a potential wolfe wave.

 

I like how this point one begins at the 50% of the range.

 

Also its not a steep line.

 

TIming wise, the distance from point one to three is almost equal point 2 to 4.

 

The gap below is a big void - extremely possible it will be tested.

 

A good plan would be to sell a retest of this box from below.

 

any thoughts?

[Tasuki 10]

Interesting pt. here...

 

any thoughts?

 

Is this the ES, waveslider? What's the timeframe?

[waveslider 10]

yes sorry, es.. Its just an hourly.

[Tasuki 10]

yes sorry, es.. Its just an hourly.

 

day session only, as I found out (@ES.D in Tradestation).

 

Where would point 6 be, waveslider? Somewhere below point 2, right?

 

I like the fact that there's a pitchfork confirming the weakness.

Doesn't hurt that there are two moving averages providing resistance on the daily chart (34 EMA and 50 SMA).

 

Still, every money manager on the planet is telling his clients to get back into the market, so I'm dubious that point 6 will get reached. This might turn out to be a classic example of what happens when technical analysis stands in the way of a stampede of bulls.

[waveslider 10]

yes here is an updated chart. I actually moved point 1 on this chart a little lower to where momentum actually started. This is a 45 min chart of ESZ08(24 hr sesh).

 

Total disclosure, I actually took a position on this one short on the close today. I had another signal anyway, but I think I will trade a portion of this according to the pattern.

 

I added the Andrews line because it seemed appropriate.

 

I like the WW target here because it has acted as a genuine support and resistance line on both sides.

 

I like how the WW target line also penetrates the pattern at the 50% mark of the pattern. There is of course another Andrews line that could originate from the #1 pt. which has an even more deep target.

 

I am still convinced the charts say we are in a range, a time when WW works well (as opposed to trend).

 

The classic descending triangle should be apparent to every one in this market.

 

This is not going to be an easy ride lower (I anticipate), since its not close enough to be a straight fall. However the R/R is about 5 to one right now.

 

I'm doing one contract down to that WW line (100pts). Its the most conservative line of the other andrews lines I see originating from that area. The rest of the position I'll take off around 850 if it gets that low.

 

There is a real possibility of testing recent Nov. lows... notice that price is failing to stay above pt. #3. Every one who was going to buy bought on that gap up - weak volume follow through..

 

Well see..

[Tasuki 10]

Best of luck on this trade WS. I'm thinking right now that we won't hit even the Andrews medianline, but that's what makes for two-sided trading, right? I have to admit that the WW and pitchfork really do look classic.

[waveslider 10]

Patiently waiting for something to happen, another WW just formed as the top failed here...

I don't know why I am seeing WWs recently more. I still don't trust them too much, they have to be traded with some other method.

The steep pitchfork I had on that chart doesn't look so good anymore.

I still think this market is headed south.