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AbeSmith

8/3/07 General Trade Log / Idea Sharing

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Good morning, and good evening to our fellow international traders. Unemployment data came out today at 8:30ET and YM dropped 40 or so points at that time. Good luck everyone.

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First trade was short YM at 13494 and covered quick at 484 for +10. Bottom of the range was at 76 and figured it *could* be a possible turning point so took what what I could and am awaiting the aftermath of the ISM so get in again.

YMMorn_1.thumb.jpg.9b9f4fbccb74d1cf671c5a7b0c8fc80e.jpg

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Trade 3: -21 points. Stupid move. This trade made me appreciate again how important psychology and state of mind is in trading.

 

Didn't calculate stop ahead of time. Spur of the moment trade. Should have calculated stop, and then I would have seen that it was too wide.

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Im done for the day. The day is really wacky.

 

Yeah lets use a little word association for the day...

 

Whacked

 

On crack

 

Stupid

 

Choppy

 

Messy

 

Haha everyone have a great weekend!

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Abe,

One idea - for the way you are trading (and I'm not 100% sure what that is), take a look at Volume Based Charts (VBC's) just as a comparison. I see the chart posted is a 1 minute chart, so you are not adverse to some quick moving charts. I am currently running a 5000 VBC on the ES.

 

In case you are not sure what a VBC is, it's when you tell your chart to print a new candle after so many contracts have traded. It can take that volume function that many use and display in candle format. Some charting packages refer to this as a Contract Setting and some chartings do not offer it. But if you have it, it could be worth looking at for comparison purposes if nothing else. Going to a VBC made a big difference for me when I first found them and even though I got away from them, I am back (esp with this volatility). I found minute charts to be taking too long in this current environment.

 

PS

Your charts look cleaner and I hope they are even easier for you to make on the fly with SnagIt!!

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Abe,

One idea - for the way you are trading (and I'm not 100% sure what that is), take a look at Volume Based Charts (VBC's) just as a comparison. I see the chart posted is a 1 minute chart, so you are not adverse to some quick moving charts. I am currently running a 5000 VBC on the ES.

 

In case you are not sure what a VBC is, it's when you tell your chart to print a new candle after so many contracts have traded. It can take that volume function that many use and display in candle format. Some charting packages refer to this as a Contract Setting and some chartings do not offer it. But if you have it, it could be worth looking at for comparison purposes if nothing else. Going to a VBC made a big difference for me when I first found them and even though I got away from them, I am back (esp with this volatility). I found minute charts to be taking too long in this current environment.

 

PS

Your charts look cleaner and I hope they are even easier for you to make on the fly with SnagIt!!

 

Thanks Brownsfan. I'm not sure if I have the VBC.

 

Yes, the SnagIt is excellent. Thank you for finding it.

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Take a look this weekend to see if you have VBC's and see if they make a difference for you. It took me years to even hear about them, so if they work for you and saves you some time, great! If not, no harm.

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Alright, I'm finally proud of myself for catching a long term play. I finally got my e-signal up and running again and I set up the charts a little bit differently. I now have a small 15 minute (sorry the chart says 5 I wasn't paying attention). I noticed a wedge on the chart and took a scalp at the breakout and another position to hold slightly longer incase the breakout proved effective.

 

o Entry – 13455

o Exit scalp – 13445

o P&L – 10 YM

o Exit 2nd contract – 13425

o P&L – 30 YM

 

I got out because of the -1000 tick. I should have turned around and gone long and caught another easy 10 pts but I didn't.

 

Now looking at the chart, I should have held on till the close of the 15 min candle - it would have been a much more profitable trade. Oh well, I made the trade and it worked.

5aa70decd0d46_breakout5minaug3.thumb.jpg.7849095a751332c65a20b93775bfb36a.jpg

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Thanks Brownsfan. I'm not sure if I have the VBC.

 

Yes, the SnagIt is excellent. Thank you for finding it.

 

Abe,

 

With IB data and sierra charts you can plot volume based bars

 

Instead of minutes in the format box look for volume or shares.

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Abe,

 

With IB data and sierra charts you can plot volume based bars

 

Instead of minutes in the format box look for volume or shares.

 

 

I see a volume option in chart settings, but not sure how to configure it:

VBC.thumb.jpg.8b6bdb8a61cd529b32fd562889cefd37.jpg

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I see a volume option in chart settings, but not sure how to configure it:

 

Just click the dot to select volume and type in "5000" or "7500" that would be equal to every bar printing when 5000 contracts have been traded.

 

Brownsfan has an excellent thread on VBC's

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Just click the dot to select volume and type in "5000" or "7500" that would be equal to every bar printing when 5000 contracts have been traded.

 

Brownsfan has an excellent thread on VBC's

 

I see. Thanks.

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Abe on that trade, you should have waited for the breakout on the short side then gone short. I've found that works extremely well. You see those 4 candles all making lows at the same point, you could have setup a short once that was broken and you would have had a 30pt gain instead of a 3 pt loss. Just an idea.

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    • Date: 10th March 2025.   SNP500 Hits a 6-Month Low: Trade Policy & Recession Fears Weigh on Market`s.   The SNP500 completes a 3-week decline and falls to its lowest price since September 2024. The price continues to remain under pressure from President Trump’s trade policy. In addition to this, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about a potential US recession. SNP500 - Trade Policy and The Federal Reserve’s View On The Economy The US Non-Farm Employment data on Friday read lower than what analysts were expecting. However, the data does not yet indicate a recession. Investors are increasingly showing a lower risk appetite and cautiousness due to Trump’s trade policy on China, Mexico and Canada. The NFP Change read 151,000, 8,000 lower than predictions and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1%. The poor price movement is more driven by comments from the US President. Yesterday evening on Fox News, the US President addressed concerns about a potential US recession, advising the economy will undergo ‘a period of transition.’ However, some see this as a subtle warning of a short economic downturn. Though the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is taking a different tone and looking to reassure the market.     Mr Jerome Powell advises the FOMC is not expecting or worried about a US recession. ‘The US economy remains in a strong position despite heightened uncertainty,’ Powell stated at a University of Chicago event. He also said that sentiment readings have been a reliable tool for predicting consumption growth in recent years. ‘There is no need to rush, we are in a good position to wait for more clarity,’ was his answer to questions about interest rates. On the one hand, the SNP500 may witness support from the positive comments from the Fed regarding the economy. 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SNP500 - Technical Analysis The price of the SNP500 is currently trading 0.73% lower and gains bearish momentum as the European market opens. In the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the main Moving Averages and VWAP. The index also remains within the ‘sell’ zone of the RSI and MACD. On the 3-minute chart, the price remains below the 200-bar SMA and sell signals may continue to materialize for as long as the price remains below this level.     Key Takeaways: The SNP500 has declined for three consecutive weeks, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The main cause of pressure is from Trump’s trade policies and recession concerns. Weaker-than-expected US employment data raised caution. However, the Fed reassured markets, stating there is no imminent recession and no rush to adjust interest rates. The FedWatch tool now shows a 97% chance of a rate pause, reducing hopes for near-term cuts. Technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum, with the index trading below key moving averages and remaining in the sell zone on RSI. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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