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notouch

8/02/07 General Trade Log / Idea Sharing

By notouch, in Traders Log

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AbeSmith    10

AbeSmith
Posted

Just a summary for my trading today:

 

4 roundtrips. -32 points. -177.04 realized loss.

 

Still paper trading. First trade was a bet on that there would be a price jump on the opening, but it was very volitile and I got stopped out. 2nd trade was a bet on the 200sma support. But got stopped out, the only time price moved bellow the 200sma today. 3rd trade was a short which I got stopped out from.

 

Missed alot of opportunities today. Still very timid to take setups, but I'm recongnizing the problem and that's the first step.

 

I also like to note thaty the 200sma which I discovered yesterday was a significant support yesterday and today. I will be monitoring it tomorrow as well. Here is a snagIt image of today's action, special thanks to Brownsfan for making it happen:

8-2-07Summary.thumb.jpg.a8643b35fc5d9cff736f77fb9d3bc66c.jpg

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brownsfan019    17

brownsfan019
Posted

Abe - I've never really looked at the 200 SMA before, but it sure looks like you could have simply played the bounces all day long on that thing today. Again, I have NO IDEA if this is a profitable strategy or not in the long run, but you may have stumbled onto a nice, simple play.

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brownsfan019    17

brownsfan019
Posted

Abe,

Here's a 5 minute ES chart from today with the 200 SMA.

 

Kind of intriguing how it played out (at least today). Now the questions you need to answer if you want to move forward with this are:

 

1) Exactly how and when will you enter a trade?

 

2) How will you determine when to take a profit? As you can see, some of these bounced nicely off the 200 and provided very nice profit potential and not so much later in the day.

 

3) At what point are you wrong (where your stop would be) and why?

 

4) Is there a Plan B? In other words, if you get stopped, should that perhaps be a reversal stop since your stop shows that a bounce off the 200 failed? If not, at what point do you consider going short (in today's example), if at all?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=2199&stc=1&d=1186107243

5aa70dec7f1ec_es8-1.png.1e28545d760be1ff57d99ddb75b6699c.png

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notouch    10

notouch
Posted

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but in an uptrending market price would spend most time above the 200 SMA, perhaps not touching it for days and in a downtrending market price would spend most time below the 200 SMA. In a choppy market it would spend most time going above and below the 200 SMA. Today I think the apparent support offered by the 200 SMA was coincidental and caused by the transition from a down trend to an uptrend, hence the flat 200 SMA.

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brownsfan019    17

brownsfan019
Posted

Perhaps there's something for Abe to consider notouch! When 200 SMA FLAT, pay closer attention to for setups. When SMA trending, better have another plan to make some money! As I said, I've never done much with the 200 outside of daily charts on stocks, but that was awhile back.

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AbeSmith    10

AbeSmith
Posted
I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but in an uptrending market price would spend most time above the 200 SMA, perhaps not touching it for days and in a downtrending market price would spend most time below the 200 SMA. In a choppy market it would spend most time going above and below the 200 SMA. Today I think the apparent support offered by the 200 SMA was coincidental and caused by the transition from a down trend to an uptrend, hence the flat 200 SMA.

 

Perhaps there's something for Abe to consider notouch! When 200 SMA FLAT, pay closer attention to for setups. When SMA trending, better have another plan to make some money! As I said, I've never done much with the 200 outside of daily charts on stocks, but that was awhile back.

 

Hello. Not sure how to read the 200sma, but it is currently on my chart and I will pay attention to it and see how it plays out. Thanks Notouch and Brownsfan for the insight.

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james_gsx    16

james_gsx
Posted

I'm seeing strong resistance at the 8 EMA, which is what I play off of. For some reason when I plug in the 200sma on the daily chart it comes up around 12800 lol Am I doing something wrong?

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