Is the YM the new ER2?

[GCB 10]

Today, 7/25/07, the YM is all over the place. On the other hand the Russell looks relatively well-behaved. I've noticed that the YM has been more and more erratic lately and seems to be attracting more and more attention from traders and, unfortunately, black-boxers. It's becoming more like the ER2 used to be. Or is it just my imagination? We are a definite moment of truth on the DOW and bottom finding is usually very erratic. But still...

 

Wow the tape just flew by faster than any future contract I've every witnessed. How weird!

 

Perhaps the YM will become the contract de jour and the Russell will calm down and become more and more like the YM used to be. Pleeease. I love having to trade only half as many contracts for more profit potential.

 

All I know is the days of 10 point stops, maybe even 15 point stops, on the YM seem to be over.

[walterw 10]

I think just about the same... here was my first consideration on the topic http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/is-ym-the-next-russell-1965.html seems like I am not the only one to smell this crazy YM... cheer Walter.

[TinGull 10]

I agree...the days of small stops are over. Its not easy at all to get away with the small stops. and YM has been insane lately.

[feb2865 10]

I saw prints in the vicinity of 50 contracts these past couple of days.

 

We only hope it doesn't get arbed and blackboxed like ES as new volume comes in.

 

Just remembering the good old days of the ES and it's nice swings. Similar to YM lately.

[notouch 10]

YM has been volatile lately but probably less so than ES. I don't think it's anything to do with traders switching from ER to YM. It's a result of a mixed earnings season and the volatility of stocks in general. VIX is reaching levels not seen for years. The money that goes into YM is a tiny fraction of the money that flows into stocks. Expect more volatility throughout earnings season. After hours today, for example, we have Apple earnings which will create volatility in Apple shares which will affect other tech shares and the market in general. I think you need to stand back and look at the big picture.

 

Also the rules relating to short sales of stocks were recently changed so short trades can be made on down ticks which has increased volatility.

[GCB 10]

There's just so much noise.

 

Moving averages are pretty useless. Trendfinders? Might as well give your money to charity where it will do some good. Eyeballing is good enough to find the trend. Anything else just lies to you just when you need it to be most accurate. I'm a programmer and I've written many of my own indicators and I can testify that almost all of them aren't worth the time I spent on them.

 

Levels, trendlines/channels, fib levels and the tape are the only thing that make any sense right now. To me anyway. I've tried just about everything in the indexes and they march to a different drummer. You sense the cold, blind calculations of programmed buying and selling in them.

 

Thank goodness for soybeans!

 

(Thanks for the thread ref, walter.)

[GCB 10]

Also the rules relating to short sales of stocks were recently changed so short trades can be made on down ticks which has increased volatility.

 

Really!? They finally got rid of that rule? Wow!

[GCB 10]

YM has been volatile lately but probably less so than ES.

 

I don't have a problem with volatility. By that I mean overall movement. It's just the sheer erraticism of it that bugs me. I'm seeing a lot of long wicks where I don't remember there being as many. Random false starts. Bursts that go nowhere. Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!

[walterw 10]

I don't have a problem with volatility. By that I mean overall movement. It's just the sheer erraticism of it that bugs me. I'm seeing a lot of long wicks where I don't remember there being as many. Random false starts. Bursts that go nowhere. Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!

 

 

jejeje husbands and wifes ¡¡

[notouch 10]

Here a weekly chart of the VIX. You can see that volatility has peaks and troughs in a fairly predictable manner over time. The current YM choppiness is just a symptom of that. It's currently near what has been the past a peak of volatility.

 

[dalby 10]

i have still been able to use 6-15 pt stops on YM (even today) - you just have to wait for a pristine setup

 

fwiw, the russell has now lost ALL gains for the year. the dow hasn't. so, in that respect the volatility is definitely greater in russell (was up big is now flat. dow is still up)

[notouch 10]

ES wiped out 3 months of gains today and closed below the June lows. YM is still 250 points above the June lows.

[walterw 10]

Is it my impression or are we having much more overnight globex trading going on ?

[notouch 10]

684 contracts traded tonight on YM so far. That doesn't seem unusually high. Of course with the general increase in volume and volatility over the past few days you would expect more trading at all times of the day.

[Guest cooter]

Well over a half-million contracts on the Russell today. How many on the YM? Only 350K or so. Go figure.

[torero 10]

Anyone noticed a slight average volume increase in activity in EMD during the since the ER2 move? I don't see much increase except for the usual increase due to new highs factor.

[Guest cooter]

Is it my impression or are we having much more overnight globex trading going on ?

 

Yes, in the ES and large S&P, it would seem so.

[torero 10]

Anyone want to speculate if this higher than usual globex activities due to earnings season?

[notouch 10]

Anyone want to speculate if this higher than usual globex activities due to earnings season?

 

It's "higher than usual" if you mean higher than a month ago but it's all pretty much the same as the day after February 27. It seems some traders here have short memories. :p

 

The volatility in Europe and Asia is the main reason. There's also usually a bit of futures activity when a big name releases it's earnings.