Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Dogpile

Dogpiles A-B-C Trades

Recommended Posts

This thread is to chronicle a few set-ups... Comments welcome.

 

I use a combination of:

1) pattern recognition

2) market profile based 'value' concepts to filter trade ideas...

 

Set-Up 1:

 

Pattern: A-B-C Pattern

 

Filter:

If Current VWAP > Yesterdays Closing VWAP -- Look Long but only if ABC forms BELOW Todays VWAP Level

If Current VWAP < Yesterdays Closing VWAP -- Look Short but only if ABC forms ABOVE Todays VWAP Level

 

I am not going to spend time on exits as those are too complex...

Just Entries and Initial Stop Levels

 

http://bp2.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/Rp5_v0AHGOI/AAAAAAAAAUk/tDK8HkaaCyk/s1600-h/July+12+ABC+Pattern.bmp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this one is a set-up for a 'coil break'.

 

Title: Bollinger Band Squeeze Play

(Lifted Partially From John Carters book 'Mastering The Trade')

 

Settings:

Use 15-min Chart

Both 2.0 Std Dev Bollinger Bands narrow to the point of being 'inside' the 1.5 Keltner Bands

 

Statistical Set-Up:

This set-up defines a market that is in tight 'balance' and poised to break hard in one direction or the other. A market 'in balance' is a market profile concept which means that buyers and sellers have agreed on the current price level. The Bollinger Band Squeeze play is when the market has become balanced for a period of time that is long enough such that a big move might be forthcoming. While the chance of a breakout to the upside or downside is considered to be 50/50 -- the reward of catching a directional move makes the trade have a high reward relative to the risk of 'stopping-out'. You must use a stop as the market can fake one way and then go the other way.

 

Pattern Filter:

You must be able to draw a well-defined Triangle (converging trendlines). If you can't draw a triangle, then the chart set-up is probably too wide-and-loose. This visual pattern is a crucial variable to the set-up.

 

http://bp3.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/Rp6PSEAHGQI/AAAAAAAAAU0/tjPrtvhgLNk/s1600-h/July+18+BB+Squeeze+Play.bmp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notice the 15-min 'Structure' which takes you out of the lower timeframe 'noise'.

 

There is generally support/resistance around the VWAP level. When VWAP is below previous day VWAP -- the odds are that the market will resume its trend back down. It is important to monitor the 're-testing' action after this signal -- if price does not break lower in convincing fashion, then its likely the 'down auction' is over and a new 'up auction' may begin. Thus the play is to short for the test down and then monitor how price responds.

 

http://bp2.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqIT0-vXazI/AAAAAAAAAVE/OzuqegzYhY8/s1600-h/July+20+ABC+Patterns.bmp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<same entry? buystop above last 2 bar high?>>

 

Hi Bubba,

 

I have played with lots of short-term entry techniques and currently have a few I select from. I try to find the one that seems to best capture the pattern I am trading but also has low risk... here is the one I used for that YM trade.

 

http://bp1.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqU2u-vXa1I/AAAAAAAAAVU/nrQvUvwUoCk/s1600-h/July+23+ABC+Lower+Timeframe+Entry.bmp

 

I like the '2-bar high' technique for NQ but not for YM. The focus of this thread is just to capture the higher timeframe pattern. The entry and stop technique you use are crucial for risk control but for me, these change over time depending on what is working and what isn't. If you are right on the pattern, it won't matter much what the lower timeframe entry technique you use -- but certainly, it is nice to get into a profit position soon after entering --- or take a small loss and look to re-enter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
<<same entry? buystop above last 2 bar high?>>

 

Hi Bubba,

 

I have played with lots of short-term entry techniques and currently have a few I select from. I try to find the one that seems to best capture the pattern I am trading but also has low risk... here is the one I used for that YM trade.

 

http://bp1.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqU2u-vXa1I/AAAAAAAAAVU/nrQvUvwUoCk/s1600-h/July+23+ABC+Lower+Timeframe+Entry.bmp

 

I like the '2-bar high' technique for NQ but not for YM. The focus of this thread is just to capture the higher timeframe pattern. The entry and stop technique you use are crucial for risk control but for me, these change over time depending on what is working and what isn't. If you are right on the pattern, it won't matter much what the lower timeframe entry technique you use -- but certainly, it is nice to get into a profit position soon after entering --- or take a small loss and look to re-enter.

 

 

I like to see this specific timing Dog... thanks Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<I like to see this specific timing Dog... thanks Walter.>>

 

I will try to post some more of those too. Specifics are indeed crucial to futures trading. Was just trying to re-iterate/explain my key point: short-term techniques ('trading tricks') generally are going to be a coin-flip without some analysis of higher timeframe 'structure'...

 

but one without the other is kind of useless as you can't enter good reward-risk trades without the lower timeframe entry technique.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<Are you considering the parabolics on 2 min for exits ? they look very nice...>>

 

Not usually, I generally just put limits out in pieces and see what fills and what doesn't. I like the CONCEPT of parabolics a lot (start with wider stop and exponentially move it closer as time passes). But I have found playing for # of ticks to work better... ie, play for 15-20 ticks with 15 tick stop. usually though, I will take 1/3 to 1/2 off after the first good push -- somewhere around 11/12 ticks... and exit other piece(s) on 2nd good push...

 

today I entered and stopped for 15 ticks... it ran up another 26 ticks above that stop-out level -- then I re-entered and made 34 ticks back down... so on that 15-min I was 1-1 for +19 ticks....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just awesome trading environment right now. Huge swings and clean patterns...

 

This is an incredible 1600-tick pattern that set up this morning on NQ. Look at the follow-through here. Needless to say, I didn't catch most of this as I didn't manage to save a piece and play for big move (bad exit technique)-- but the entry was excellent...

 

(Note that 1600t chart is similar to a 15-min chart but the 1600-tick chart is used for 24-hour pattern trading when volume is lower. I use both to scan for patterns... have found both to work).

 

http://bp2.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqfGOuvXa5I/AAAAAAAAAV0/pmAAy0lrUo0/s1600-h/July+25+NQ+ABC+1600t.bmp

 

here was my entry:

 

http://bp0.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqfFPOvXa4I/AAAAAAAAAVs/AX0OywkaeB4/s1600-h/July+25+NQ+ABC+300t.bmp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
<<same entry? buystop above last 2 bar high?>>

 

Hi Bubba,

 

I have played with lots of short-term entry techniques and currently have a few I select from. I try to find the one that seems to best capture the pattern I am trading but also has low risk... here is the one I used for that YM trade.

 

http://bp1.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqU2u-vXa1I/AAAAAAAAAVU/nrQvUvwUoCk/s1600-h/July+23+ABC+Lower+Timeframe+Entry.bmp

 

I like the '2-bar high' technique for NQ but not for YM. The focus of this thread is just to capture the higher timeframe pattern. The entry and stop technique you use are crucial for risk control but for me, these change over time depending on what is working and what isn't. If you are right on the pattern, it won't matter much what the lower timeframe entry technique you use -- but certainly, it is nice to get into a profit position soon after entering --- or take a small loss and look to re-enter.

 

ok.. great charts and commentary.

i really like the setup!

:D

 

thanks again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

YM was awesome today with very clean patterns -- I made a lot trading YM today. Here is the very nice ABC up in the morning session:

 

http://bp3.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqkXYevXa7I/AAAAAAAAAWE/De4D4kZHD4Y/s1600-h/July+26+YM+ABC+UP.bmp

 

The morning move in NQ was very complex and I did lose money trading NQ today. In the morning, I really didn't understand what was going on in NQ at the time --- I got nailed on a short and then made that money back on another short -- but I don't think I read the pattern right -- the short-term trading technique was good enough to make me a profit. My net loss came later in day when I tried an entry for a potential overnight down-move but I stopped out on the little extra push up.

 

Here is the NQ 24-hour chart. This is a pretty wild chart and very difficult to figure out the correct 'spots' for high-reward, low-risk trades. The second magenta circle in retrospect would have been the best spot for a short in retrospect --- I just couldn't figure this pattern out in real-time. Only later could I put it together.

 

http://bp1.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RqkcP-vXa8I/AAAAAAAAAWM/2N0fDePUARc/s1600-h/July+26+NQ+Trend+Reversals.bmp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.