Being Special

[TinGull 10]

WEll, I just wanted to say that it take a very special person to go long in todays market and still lose money. I, apparently, am at the top of the special list. Yes, I went long NQ at 1912.25 and had too tight a stop apparently, as every other contract did a 50% retrace and went higher...except for the NQ. So, I was stopped out of that and couldn't get back in as I felt "certain"...oh yes, certain...that the market couldn't go higher. How newbie do I feel right now? Terribly. I started to feel uncomfortable when the YM was at 88 points thinking...wow, normally 100-120 is a decent day.

 

So, how do others combat this type of thinking? How do you get in when price is already "extended"?

 

Yay for me!! I've got my party hat on!

[Guest cooter]

WEll, I just wanted to say that it take a very special person to go long in todays market and still lose money. I, apparently, am at the top of the special list. Yes, I went long NQ at 1912.25 ...

 

Tin,

 

You mean 2012.25 right?

 

How tight are your stops on the NQ?

 

And, without betraying the core of your trading plan, what caused you to go long at that particular moment?

[TinGull 10]

HA! Yes, 2012.25. I'm still frazzled from it all.

 

The basis for entering was a 50% retracement of the 30min opening range. All other markets took off from that point, but NQ wanted to retrace a little deeper. My stop was pretty tight, and usually is on NQ. I realized after I should have placed my stop below the opening range low, and also used less contracts. I went in double what I normally do (which is 1...so I used 2) and got freaked. I should've scaled in which is what I've been practicing as of late.

[Nick1984 10]

I was on the YM and after I saw the opening gap I was convinced we were going to shoot up maye 20-30 points then slam back down and fill in. I shorted!!!! I don't have the most sophisticated charting program so I don't have access to nice market internal indicators such as TICK, TRIN, etc.. but after i was down -10 points on my short and just stared at tape and volume, I just reversed my position, stayed up for another hour and went to have a nap.

 

I came back after the May trade announcement and I was really tired (time zone difference) so I exited out and still was ahead.

 

I reckon that if you know you've stuffed it, and can see that a trend day is developing on your MP analysis (which you do heaps of!) then don't be afraid to bite the bullet and hit the reversal order button!

 

Seems that your initial entry condition was sound. Were you checking a TPO chart to see if you could spot the range extension?

[TinGull 10]

Seems that your initial entry condition was sound. Were you checking a TPO chart to see if you could spot the range extension?

 

Hey Nick,

 

The initial entry was fine, my stop was just too tight. As for watching range extentions...the IB had just been formed and price was currently inside the IB when I went long. After that I think I might have been too focused on NQ wanting to revert back to it's POC. Ah well, I'll catch some cash today. Just funny now...wasn't yesterday, but now, really pretty amusing to think about.

[walterw 10]

Hi Tin... you shouldnt feel any remorse... This type of trending days are exceptions, your rules why you didnt get back in is the norm.... the norm makes a traders living and not this exceptions...

 

Super exceptional trending days will not make your trading career... Normal cyclycal boring days make your career... so dont bother and dont stress emotionally about loosing a day like yesterday... keep the norm working for you... be good on this f·##&%K boring normal days... cheers Walter.

[TinGull 10]

HAH! Thanks Walter

[Nick1984 10]

Hey Nick,

 

The initial entry was fine, my stop was just too tight. As for watching range extentions...the IB had just been formed and price was currently inside the IB when I went long. After that I think I might have been too focused on NQ wanting to revert back to it's POC. Ah well, I'll catch some cash today. Just funny now...wasn't yesterday, but now, really pretty amusing to think about.

 

I don't have any MP software so I have to kind of imagine it in my mind off the charts lol. Did the NQ open far above the previous days VAH? In my trading plan for that day on the YM I was expecting a gap up based on the overnight session trading range, and when I saw how high we were up from the value area (i got these figures from a 3rd party) I abandoned all hope of ever going back there on the YM after the IB was set up.

[TinGull 10]

Yea, NQ was almost 40 ticks above value. I knew I had to get long, I just got long and had too tight a stop, and couldn't get the nerve up to get back in.

[brownsfan019 17]

Tin - that's the beauty of trading, right? Your analysis can be correct, but you can still lose money... I think that's what makes this job so hard at times.

 

Sounds like the stop placement was not the best; however, I would suggest getting back on the horse when a new trade shows. I know it's easier said than done, but you cannot freeze over one stop out. We've all been there, so you just have to work on the mental aspect of it.

[GCB 10]

This brings to mind what I call the vagarities of discretionary trading. Or, as someone else put it, the fog of war on the right edge of the chart.

 

Few things are more maddening than watching the market in an uptrend (or downtrend) presenting you with pullback entry after pullback entry and on each one finding some seemingly reasonable excuse not to take the trade. The ticks aren't right. There is short-term resistance (support). It's too close to lunch (the open, the close). The tape doesn't look right. The last few up (down) candles had long wicks. I have to go to the bathroom. My socks are too tight. And on and on and on.

 

Then finally you take a trade and it happens to be the one that breaks the trendline, takes out your stop and then reverses and goes higher (lower).

 

It's..enough....to..make....a..person....crazy!

 

If you have enough knowledge and information you can always find an excuse not to take a trade.

 

This is the fundamental flaw and challenge of discrectionary trading. That is, just where does discretion end and emotionalism/rationalization begin? In my experience there is almost always one or two bits of information which are not quite ideal for each and every trade. The market rarely does me the courtesy of fitting itself neatly and perfectly into my rules. So then then question is how much can I ignore certain information and what amount of ignoring consitutes not following rules.

 

In my experience this is where the rubber meets the road. Day in, day out.

[notouch 10]

TinGull you've answered your own question many times - your stop was too tight! Think of it as a cheap lesson in how to trade big up days and never forget it.