Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

walterw

The "False Break" Trade

Recommended Posts

This is a diferent version of the M`s that works very well on cycle days... similar to the Lazy Trade but its diference is that we need a swing of the previous pivot... probably from all my M`s this is an easier setup because you inevitably need a false swing to take the trade...

 

Its very important as all this countertrend cycle trades to be shure we dont have momentum in place, otherwise its a clear recipe to get stoped...

 

now when you have a :zzz: day then this "False Break" trades work like a charm...

 

So whats needed to trade this trade ?

 

1rst_ we want to have an outerband pivot being formed creating a level..

 

2nd_ we want to break that level, but not much...

 

3rd_ right after the break things loose steam and get back in... here we time our entry and expect to cycle back inside...

 

4th_ exits should be scalpers exits as we dont expect any super move...(we dont have momentum)

 

 

so I attach a chart of this, so you can understand what I am talking about here....

 

The advantage of this trade is that it gives you the posibilty to make very nice gains on this slow cycle days... its more easy to spot than the lazy trade because you need that swing for the setup...

 

For timing I am using all of the "flip" timing methodology with cci... in this case I do take the 100 levels cross for entries... setups are on 55Tick chart, "very specific timing" is in 22 Tick chart...

 

I will be posting this one for a while... and dont forget I am a scalper... cheers Walter.

5aa70de5a8df8_Thefalsebreaktrade.thumb.png.b7da84c9ae69b2ba5390afc70dfd477c.png

5aa70de5b167b_falsebreak1.thumb.png.d34e559ff74f96aef0e9aa7e4fec4ecd.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Walter - just one question for you - are you trading some, all, or none of these trade setups in real-time you have on the forum? Reason I ask is that we get a new Walter trade setup, which is great for newbies, but I am looking at some of these threads wondering how a scalper could possibly trade so many variations at the same time... :confused:

 

I'm just wondering how you decipher in real-time as a scalper the differences of the setups you have on the forum b/c it seems you have trend following setups, counter-trend setups, boring/zzzz day setups... And the setups have a lot of similarities, it's a matter of how the movement is interrupted.

 

Are you able to keep things simple as your sig says? If so, how?!?!? I've never had much luck with many variants of a trading plan, so I keep mine pretty simple with candlestick analysis. And to me, that's very cut and dry, not many variants there. I'd love to know how/if you are performing this analysis in real-time and how you decide what variant is being used in real-time.

 

Thanks Walter!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey Brown, in all of Walters set up posts I always read it as a sort of "variations on a theme" style where they are all more or less based on his original "flip" trade just tweeked for different market conditions. In all of his trade setups I have always assumed that these are taken well after the first 1-2 hours of the trading day because they seem to require a lot of analysis on what the market may do on that particular day, so I don't think that he actually incorporates all of these set ups on a daily basis.

 

After the first hour or two of the market opening, he spots the way the market seems to be moving and then applies the set up variation of the flip that suits that particular day best. If hes shooting for 10-20 points net a day then he can go in and out about 2-3 times a day with these set ups.

 

Thats how I've assumed Walter is operating but them I'm just speculating!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Walter - just one question for you - are you trading some, all, or none of these trade setups in real-time you have on the forum? Reason I ask is that we get a new Walter trade setup, which is great for newbies, but I am looking at some of these threads wondering how a scalper could possibly trade so many variations at the same time... :confused:

 

I'm just wondering how you decipher in real-time as a scalper the differences of the setups you have on the forum b/c it seems you have trend following setups, counter-trend setups, boring/zzzz day setups... And the setups have a lot of similarities, it's a matter of how the movement is interrupted.

 

Are you able to keep things simple as your sig says? If so, how?!?!? I've never had much luck with many variants of a trading plan, so I keep mine pretty simple with candlestick analysis. And to me, that's very cut and dry, not many variants there. I'd love to know how/if you are performing this analysis in real-time and how you decide what variant is being used in real-time.

 

Thanks Walter!

 

 

Hi Brown... nice question there...

 

I have decided some time ago to show all my arsenal, I wanted to take this out so I could also see from outside myself and maybe help others at the same time, in the process of showing all out, it hasnt been that organized... maybe as time passes I will be able to organize all this information... now remember there has been also some evolution from my part too, thats why its so mixed my information, because I went from my traditional M`s all the way to this new setups wich actually some of them are a new version of my M`s...

 

The First process here is determining the type of day, that normally can be established on first half hour... it will be Momentum day or Cycle day... so here you have two big classifications... where for each one there are a series of strategies that will fit the day...

 

If the day happens to be a Momentum Day.... then "flip" and "abc`s" will be considered..

 

If the day happens to be a Cycle day... then M`s trades will be considered and here we have the new M`s breed : "lazy" trades and "false brake" trades...

 

So basicly you have four setups that will be organized and considered depending in two types of market climate...

 

From this four setups I am more confortable with two of them "flip" and "false break"... maybe (here is my evolution) I will probably stay only with this two...

 

The nice thing here is that both use the same indicators on charts and the timing methodology (with cci) is common for both...

 

So depending on the day momentum or cycle I will be looking for "flips" or "false breaks"...

 

They are very easy setups to spot on a chart and very friendly to trade, the key is being good to determine market conditions...

 

Hope this may clarify all this Walter mambo :p cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They are very easy setups to spot on a chart and very friendly to trade, the key is being good to determine market conditions...

 

And that my friend is what will determine if a trader is able to make money utilizing your setups. And an important consideration in my opinion.

 

Of course, the next question is - how do you determine the type of day we may have and how successful is that methodology in determining the type of day?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And that my friend is what will determine if a trader is able to make money utilizing your setups. And an important consideration in my opinion.

 

Of course, the next question is - how do you determine the type of day we may have and how successful is that methodology in determining the type of day?

 

Yes¡¡¡ and thats probably the most exciting issue a trader has to get good on, and I admit screen time is the best teacher here...

 

In my case I call it "Momentum vs Non Momentum conditions" and so far in my experience Keltner Bands combined with a discretionary perception of market "velocity" (stuck vs flowing trades) can help determining this market climate...

 

About Keltners the outerbands are the frontiers between this two conditions... if the market can manage with a nice "velocity" to build price action outside the outerbands, we can consider this a momentum condition... if the market gets to this outerband frontier and velocity is stuck there having a hard time to get any further then cycle is present and we can expect cycle conditions in the market... refreshing back to the mid band...

 

So in my case I perceive momentum vs non momentum with keltner and velocity (some kind of tape reading)...

 

There are some great amount of nuances to this...

for example a news day, you may have a very slow market previous to the news, after the news (depending what news and numbers) market changes to momentum...

 

On some other ocations like yesterday previous to a holiday,market was on cylce mode... Momentum trading days sometime happens after small range days and on and on this goes... lots of aspects to determine this "market climate" perception... I think here is where any newbie has to make screen time and get good on it... after that having a nice simple strategy for each market condition and you are mostly in bussiness... cheers Walter.

Momentum.thumb.png.5eabcdf6fef9e41e5835177ea18c3c4e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are you experimenting something similar to this attachment.php?attachmentid=2014&stc=1&d=1184866355 on a cycle Day ?

 

Well you should seriously consider trading "False Break" trades... they have a very nice performance on cycle conditions...

 

Here is an example today : attachment.php?attachmentid=2015&stc=1&d=1184866474

 

 

cheers Walter.

Angry-PC-User.gif.5809161ff480bc760f3e7c316c9e79e6.gif

5aa70de69bfe6_falsebreak.thumb.png.e5d77ed2341758dac7c44225b7c8b272.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Moneymarkets and welcome aboard ¡¡

 

The above chart is a YM 55 Tick with Keltner exponential bands 100/ 1 and 2.5 atr... cci is 14 and 6 (optional)... This charts are the same for : flip, false break and lazy trades (all in diferent threads)... hope helps... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey Walter

 

I was just wondering what trading platform you are using in the screenshots above?..

I have also been playing with your setups on TS but find that the TS CCI isn't as nice as the one you show in the NT charts (fxst3 cci) from some of your more recent posts.

 

Anthony

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hey Walter

 

I was just wondering what trading platform you are using in the screenshots above?..

I have also been playing with your setups on TS but find that the TS CCI isn't as nice as the one you show in the NT charts (fxst3 cci) from some of your more recent posts.

 

Anthony

 

those charts where from trademaven platform, actually using NT for charting an yes fxt3cci its much smoother, thought this days I am timing on the price pane directly... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi All,

 

Here is a high resolution printable picture of the Lazy and False Break setups.

 

Walter if you are reading this can you tell me do you have a classic M setup or do you use only these two to do your cyclic trading?

 

Patrycja

5aa70e85d16a9_TradingSetupsLazyFalseBreaks.thumb.jpg.a7296e6eb86c2c5ecbc835dcd4566e01.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent Patrycja ¡¡ yes thats the way it goes ¡¡ the other alternative that is very common, is the equal M... wich exactly tests the same level and comes back to the refresh action... good job... I imagine you are already making your sweet 10 ticks per day... keep up that great job Pat, trading can be such a great fun and profitable bussiness, it all depends on our mindset and our actitude towards life ¡¡ cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sweet sweet M`s... cheers Walter.

 

Hi Walter,

 

Thanks for these posts.

 

Yes like I said I cannot belive how fast a 22 tick chart is on a YM, just not for me at this stage. I now understand why you are using market orders to get in and out of the market.

 

I also had a look at your forex threads and downloaded the Metaquote software, did 12 pips yesterday, so I guess your methodology works.

 

Patrycja

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Walter,

 

Thanks for these posts.

 

Yes like I said I cannot belive how fast a 22 tick chart is on a YM, just not for me at this stage. I now understand why you are using market orders to get in and out of the market.

 

I also had a look at your forex threads and downloaded the Metaquote software, did 12 pips yesterday, so I guess your methodology works.

 

Patrycja

 

Yes, in terms of forex I am having a good deal of succes at this point... now I am not using metatrader charts, I am using Ninjatrader charts with Tick charts wich are very good... this method I am using has a very nice RRR embeded to it... unfortunately I can not talk to much about it here, as it forms part of a paid material... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Walter,

 

Thanks for your reply, I totally understand that you cannot talk something that it is a paid material.

 

I am more interested in the futures market than forex, they remind me of bucket shops of the 1900's if you read Jesses book you will know what I am talking about.

 

I have finished a new chart for all, to download and print. I have included all three setups for your counter trends there is also a cci entry chart.

 

Now tell me in one of your videos on the futures trading you had horizontal lines drawn from the old pivot points which you said that they are going to be used for the next day trading.

 

Can you post some of your setups using your futures templates with the horizontal lines together with your ABC, Lazy and Flips.

 

I would like to see how you combine all of these together in your trading style.

 

I thank you in advance.

 

Patrycja

5aa70e87b78bb_TradingSetupsLazyEqualsFalseBreaks.thumb.jpg.573d62fe2f9ffbc2bd73dc6e89809455.jpg

Trading Setups Lazy Equals False Breaks.zip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Walter,

 

Thanks for your reply, I totally understand that you cannot talk something that it is a paid material.

 

I am more interested in the futures market than forex, they remind me of bucket shops of the 1900's if you read Jesses book you will know what I am talking about.

 

I have finished a new chart for all, to download and print. I have included all three setups for your counter trends there is also a cci entry chart.

 

Now tell me in one of your videos on the futures trading you had horizontal lines drawn from the old pivot points which you said that they are going to be used for the next day trading.

 

Can you post some of your setups using your futures templates with the horizontal lines together with your ABC, Lazy and Flips.

 

I would like to see how you combine all of these together in your trading style.

 

I thank you in advance.

 

Patrycja

 

About Forex Brokers, not all of them are bucketshops.. you can perfectly trade forex in a professional way on the right place... I will try to post some trades... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.