Walter`s First Forex Research (various ideas)

[Don4 10]

MIG Investments.

[walterw 10]

Don, lets try this... I send you the original indicator from nina, you can then add on the level inputs, levels 0.4 and 0.6... please put it on a window below the one you have now so we can compare how it plots...

aNina_v1.zip

[Don4 10]

Here is a picture of today

 

 

[Don4 10]

OK,walter .........

[Don4 10]

Looks the same!

 

[walterw 10]

well seems to be that the indicator will change its appearance depending on how much historical information you got loaded on your database... thats why we are having diferent plots... so we will have to use an older version wich reads a fixed equal amount of bars back so we wont have this problem... I will attach older version in some minutes...

[Don4 10]

That explains it mine goes back to 6/28/06 on the 1 minute

[walterw 10]

OK... here I attach the original version that will look fixed amount of bars back... obviously it want wark on historical data... but forward testing will be the best policy here...

 

I look how much data will plot something similar to what we where looking at and that would be 6000 bars.... now this can put your ram to work... please try it and tell me how it whent.. I attach chart of nina on 6000 bars lookback input ( default its on 1000)...

 

Now this opens for some research on that input... it really has some interesting variations on the indicator... cheers Walter.

aNinab.zip

[Don4 10]

Ok walter,got it ! But may need to get more ram:o

 

[walterw 10]

Yes, unfortunately it is a heavy indicator to process but I am convinced its a powerfull one to trade... Don, can you tell me what inputs do you have in does hull`s.... thanks Walter.

[Don4 10]

period 200 mega trend,period 15 signal line

[Don4 10]

Ok,changed small hull to 25

[Don4 10]

Walter I have attached some images showing,what i beleive is a important time where key levels are formed for the trading day(support and resistance)

Go back and look and see if there maybe a way to capitalize off these levels once they are broken.

 

[walterw 10]

Hi Don , and thanks for sharing this ¡¡ its a very nice strategy and it has some good sense in terms of what the market may build or not in one direction.... I think i read something similar being monitored by John Clayburg but on futures...

 

My two cents here would be in terms of timing entry... I think again that the break itself should not be taken right away BUT the continuation would be a very more competitive place to take the trade as also more confirmation that the direction will really build up... This is a great method I will like to interact on... thanks Don again, cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

As far as the system that i currently use I focus on the 1 hour prior to the london open but I have been looking into more and more placing after the first hour of the london open.Hope this makes since.

[walterw 10]

As far as the system that i currently use I focus on the 1 hour prior to the london open but I have been looking into more and more placing after the first hour of the london open.Hope this makes since.

 

Let me see if I understand this : you take the range created during that hour and the break of that range per example up, would suggest a long trade ? would that be the concept ?... That hour previous to london open would be the equivalent to our globex pre opening in futures wich is a very nice piece of information actually... thought going above or below THAT range means a lot for the bulls as to the bears...

[Don4 10]

I wait for the 2Am(eastern) candle to finish place my order in the opposite direction. If its a bull candle I place a sell 1 pip below,If its a bear candle place a buy 1 pip above. Going with the candle would also work Seems to have a better RR but doesnt happen as much.

[walterw 10]

Oh ¡¡ I thought you would follow specific price action in relation to the range.... I think I still dont get your entry rule clear here... Don could you mark on chart where that would be ? (the first one on 22/6).... thanks Walter.

[Don4 10]

Here you go walter.

 

 

 

[walterw 10]

So you would take a position even before the break of the range ?... depending on the morfology of the next 1 hour candle... would that be the case ?

[Don4 10]

Yes I place orders as soon as the candle is finished, some times there is not alot of time and you have to react pretty fast,other times it may not be triggered till later that day if order isnt filled by 6pm eastern I cancel the order.

[walterw 10]

Don, I really dont want to interfere here, would you like to hear my input on this... ?

[Don4 10]

Would love to hear your views(good or bad)

[walterw 10]

I think you have a very powerfull piece of information here lets call it "1rst Hour Range"...(FHR) now what you can do about it should really be taken with some understanding of the posible market conditions : CYCLE or MOMENTUM ..

 

the fact of having a range doesnt mean that you will have a momentum condition...

 

we must remeber that Cycle is the norm, momentum is the exception...

 

so its important to understand the fact that this range will try to keep all price action inside him... SO should we state that the norm here should be to cycle this S&R levels created by this FHR... (see 1rst graph)..

 

Now If that is the case, by contrast... BREAKING this range would be a powerfull confirmation that MAYBE... this cycle condition is over and we may have some momentum showing its face... mmmmm (see 2nd graph)

 

ONLY when we break this range we can say Cycle could be in jeopardy... and momentum may build in that direction...

 

YET, false breakouts are a reality and timing should be taken after a pull and continuation morfology...

 

I attach an example of having the FHR formed you wait until a break really confirms that cycle its now becoming momentum and you can even get very picky on a 1 min chart where to enter with a very tight stop and confirmated continuation after pull.... just some ideas here...

 

Now back on the overall concept here: I think taking the trade inside the range its really dangerous as you dont have any confirmation that you will have momentum... actually. some ideas here Don... cheers Walter.

[milliard 10]

the fact of having a range doesnt mean that you will have a momentum condition...

 

Now If that is the case, by contrast... BREAKING this range would be a powerfull confirmation that MAYBE... this cycle condition is over and we may have some momentum showing its face

 

false breakouts are a reality and timing should be taken after a pull and continuation morfology...

 

I think taking the trade inside the range its really dangerous as you dont have any confirmation that you will have momentum

 

Good points Walter. Especially in relation to the range breaks. A popular strategy amongst many trading the European majors (Euro/Swiss/Cable) is to play breaks of the prev days range, if relatively tight, or maybe a session range such as the overnight Tokyo high-low.

 

Waiting for the pullback of the initial break is often the more rewarding play. These instruments are prone to whip & the showing of false hands. Catching eager & enthusiastic newbies playing initial range break strats (without waiting for confirmation) is a very profitable ploy indeed, given the fact most retailers run with tight stops & even tighter capital outlay.