Walter`s First Forex Research (various ideas)

[walterw 10]

Yes, it could be implemented... now my two cents on trendlines...

 

I would personally dont take the break itself but yes the pullback to level bounce... thats a very competitive place to take a trade with trendlines and we can add it as a new idea to our poupurry of ideas on this thread... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Sounds good!!

[walterw 10]

Its very similar to the flip concept, only that you are doing it with a trendline... If you play arround on the 1 min chart you will see lots of oportunities... how about this name : The "Trendline Flip" trade ?

 

on 5 min you can take longer swings

 

To make easy drawing, can use the small hull ma pivots to draw lines...

 

I am thinking aloud... nothing oficiall here, only ideas... cheers Walter.

[walterw 10]

This thread its intended to come with various ideas... that doesnt mean that all this ideas will be adopted, but taking a poupurry of ideas will make posible to see wich ones have more future than others...

 

My final decision from wich idea I like more would be based on the best RRR...

 

cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Sounds good walter, ill talk to you later, have to get up in about 4 hours.

[walterw 10]

Sounds good walter, ill talk to you later, have to get up in about 4 hours.

 

 

Ok Don , I see you later... cheers Walter.

[brownsfan019 17]

I will add this nuance here... and its related to the slope of the big Hull Ma...

 

we had today after a cross several pullbacks BUT the hull was still looking down... (red)

 

Now notice on this very particualr moment we have a cross and a pullback to a Blue hull average... that could tell us something more conservative in terms of trend reading... cheers Walter.

 

Wow, nice gravestone doji @ pullback to red hull and a nice looking hammer @ blue hull.

[brownsfan019 17]

Walter, I dont want to add to much to complicate this,I added a 30 min trendline as malliard suggested. Maybe until it auctually brakes the trend line there would be no valid buy signal only short! Your opinion!

 

 

 

Great looking inverted hammer that touched your trend line Don!

[walterw 10]

Brown : about volume, metatrader does show volume, I dont know how reliable it is... how its constructed, from wich data... etc... but yes it does have volume... even there are indicators based in volume such as money flow, etc... cheers Walter.

[brownsfan019 17]

Brown : about volume, metatrader does show volume, I dont know how reliable it is... how its constructed, from wich data... etc... but yes it does have volume... even there are indicators based in volume such as money flow, etc... cheers Walter.

 

Interesting. It would be nice to know how that info is pulled and from where. I don't know much about FX so not sure who to email and ask that question to. Not sure if that's a broker specific question or something to the makers of MetaTrader. Any ideas?

 

Edit: Got on the metatrader site and there appears to be a volume function in it. From the user guide: Volumes  show/hide volumes in the chart.

The same actions can be performed by the chart context menu command of the same name or by pressing of accelerating keys of Ctrl+L;

 

Just not sure where that volume info is coming from.

[walterw 10]

Interesting. It would be nice to know how that info is pulled and from where. I don't know much about FX so not sure who to email and ask that question to. Not sure if that's a broker specific question or something to the makers of MetaTrader. Any ideas?

 

Edit: Got on the metatrader site and there appears to be a volume function in it. From the user guide: Volumes  show/hide volumes in the chart.

The same actions can be performed by the chart context menu command of the same name or by pressing of accelerating keys of Ctrl+L;

 

Just not sure where that volume info is coming from.

 

 

I attach a chart with volume histogram and a OBV... , yes we should really get that information... maybe on mt4 site we can contact them with that question... cheers Walter.

[milliard 10]

Here would be another for the pound.Notice how they all line up.

 

That's sort of what I was talking bout regards general flow Don. I guess if you want to utilize trendlines then that's cool as long as you're plotting them to the correct side of the line.

 

I'm not so sure you got that specific example correct on post 50 though? I guess by the arrow annotation you were indicating a short on the Cable there?

 

The dominant flow on that pair is to the (continued) upside, so I'd guess the least line of resistance (stress) is to wait till your fast Hulls & RSX or whatever turn to a long signal? Like I said, if you trigger every signal which winks at you using this kind of set-up you'll twist yourself into tight knots pretty darned fast.

 

But I guess constant evaluation of your research will flag up that kind of danger.

[Don4 10]

Im pretty sure it measures how many times price moved wihin the time period.

[Don4 10]

milliard,yea that has always been a tricky subject with me, looking at the 4 hour and dailys the trend is up, 1hour down,30min down and the shorter frames up. But this is what i was looking at when i posted the chart,once i had this trend line on the 30 minute I scaled down to the 5min chart where the trend line was on that chart.Hope i didnt confuse you,and thanks for the help.

 

 

[milliard 10]

Yeah, looking at too many pictures can often send the head spinning huh.

 

Long as you get your bearings in accordance with your trade objectives.

 

Folks have a tendancy to pour cold water over these types of strategies, but if they're executed with sensible aims & expectations they're as good as any other method for returning decent percentages.

 

Good hunting!

[Nick1984 10]

Yes, it could be implemented... now my two cents on trendlines...

 

I would personally dont take the break itself but yes the pullback to level bounce... thats a very competitive place to take a trade with trendlines and we can add it as a new idea to our poupurry of ideas on this thread... cheers Walter.

 

On the chart you posted up on this one the only thing that I could spot was that aren't you going against your flip trade on this one because the level at the 2nd pivot will act as resistance once you buy on the pull back to the trend line. The graph you posted up did exactly that where price stalls at the level of the 2nd pivot.

 

Any other way you can measure the conviction of the up move without accurate volume?

[Don4 10]

On the chart you posted up on this one the only thing that I could spot was that aren't you going against your flip trade on this one because the level at the 2nd pivot will act as resistance once you buy on the pull back to the trend line. The graph you posted up did exactly that where price stalls at the level of the 2nd pivot.

 

Any other way you can measure the conviction of the up move without accurate volume?

 

Dont know nick maybe watching pending orders + the size through the level 2 could give some clue. (a constant search for liqiuidity)

[walterw 10]

Normally this trendlines trades are counter trend... what that means its that you will normally go against any trend definition... it is a reversal trade, and reversals must dwelt with some extra methods...

[walterw 10]

Yeah, looking at too many pictures can often send the head spinning huh.

 

Long as you get your bearings in accordance with your trade objectives.

 

Folks have a tendancy to pour cold water over these types of strategies, but if they're executed with sensible aims & expectations they're as good as any other method for returning decent percentages.

 

Good hunting!

 

 

Yes Millard, we are making some mambo here, shortly I expect to filter out the best and get consistent in one simple efective method...

 

So far I did present some classic stuff... in very short I will post some very exotic simple stuff... cheers Walter.

[Nick1984 10]

Dont know nick maybe watching pending orders + the size through the level 2 could give some clue. (a constant search for liqiuidity)

 

Seems like spot FX is a whole different kettle of fish! I'll keep on watching it though and only once I feel comfortable enough as a futures trader would I consider spot FX.

 

Walter, have you tested yet to see how well your strategies hold up to news announcements cause they can cause a lot of volatile movement in the markets! Slippage would become a large problem on those days and unscrupulous brokers would probabbly widen the spread significantly on those days. Didn't OANDA have a case not too long ago where there was a 200 pip spread at one stage on the GBPUSD?

[brownsfan019 17]

Seems like spot FX is a whole different kettle of fish! I'll keep on watching it though and only once I feel comfortable enough as a futures trader would I consider spot FX.

 

Walter, have you tested yet to see how well your strategies hold up to news announcements cause they can cause a lot of volatile movement in the markets! Slippage would become a large problem on those days and unscrupulous brokers would probabbly widen the spread significantly on those days. Didn't OANDA have a case not too long ago where there was a 200 pip spread at one stage on the GBPUSD?

 

I agree Nick - have to watch this stuff closely during econ news. FX has always interested me but when you read about brokers widening spreads, 'running' stops, etc. it's hard to get motivated to want to trade there. I mean, trading is hard enough as it is, right? I much prefer the regulated world of futures but FX is always a tempting idea...

[Don4 10]

Walter did you notice the chart I posted last night off the 30 min trendline. Did you notice the price action bounce during the retest.

 

 

 

 

[Don4 10]

I agree Nick - have to watch this stuff closely during econ news. FX has always interested me but when you read about brokers widening spreads, 'running' stops, etc. it's hard to get motivated to want to trade there. I mean, trading is hard enough as it is, right? I much prefer the regulated world of futures but FX is always a tempting idea...

 

Your concerns are understandable. Not to say it cant happen, because most of the stuff you mentioned is true. But I beleive there are some brokers out there who doesnt take advantage. This morning I was in a live trade with stops at 1.9896 and i was not slipped 1 pip. And as far as widening spreads around news release I never notice any. There are 2 times throughout the day that this happens 5:00 pm eastern and at 12:00am for about 5 minutes at each time for scheduled maintenance.

 

[walterw 10]

Nice Charts Don ¡¡ that was certainly a trendline flip there... it worked like a charm... you can see why taking the break itself would had make you take some inecesary heat...

 

That chart with that gap, what happened ? was it a news ?

 

Brown and Nick : I think thats why dealing desks should be droped... (and I did trade oanda) but since I take knowledge of this ecn type platforms like efx or hotspotfx... it really changes the vision on this issues... any way would be intersting to find the way to really monitor that type of event and be caoutios as also take profit from it if its possible...

 

 

Like anything, once you WANT to profit on some area, you will make your way to skip all the dificulties, I think that we futures traders at this point we got so adapted to our bussiness that we find normal some dificulties that for an allien to market they believe we are crazy trading there... its all adaptation and strategy...

 

good posts here guys, lets keep working, I will soon post a new creative idea... (no brainer, but yes new focus)... cheers Walter.

[Don4 10]

Walter, yea there was 3 different news release at 4:30am(eastern).GBP

this site should give all the releases for the week Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory It will go into detail of what to expect and wich news will affect the markets the most.Also a detailed explanation of each release.