Summer Doldrums

[The Bear 10]

I've been taught to ease up on trading during the summer. Has anyone actually read any hard evidence or statistics that show lower odds for traders in the summer? Is this a pure myth or any truth to it? If it is true, why?

[notouch 10]

Depends on your trading style. Why not just pull up a weekly chart of whatever you trade and see whether there's a big difference between summer and any other time of the year. The theory is that traders go on holiday over summer so there's less liquidity. I suppose there's a big difference between Europeans who get 2 months paid vacation a year and Americans who get 5 days unpaid or something.

[torero 10]

grains is doing pretty well in terms of volatility. I'm managing to stay away from index futures a bit to try my hands at commodities. Big moves today on Soybeans and Wheat. Nothing to complain here.

[Guest cooter]

I've been taught to ease up on trading during the summer. Has anyone actually read any hard evidence or statistics that show lower odds for traders in the summer? Is this a pure myth or any truth to it? If it is true, why?

 

Myth.

 

There are 250 trading days in a year. You should be trading at least 180 of those days.

 

Sort of like kids in school in North America (US and Canada), you know.

 

If you are myopic, and stuck on the US indices, then you've probably heard this clap-trap repeatedly throughout the years.

 

Ignore it.

 

What you are looking for is VOLATILITY.

 

And, as you're aware, there are many markets with plenty of volatility to trade, such as the energies, with which you are familiar.

 

Look at the bonds this week, for example.

 

Or the grains.

 

In other words, expand your horizons if your current choice of trading vehicle isn't giving you the juice you are looking for.

 

And as always, trade what you see, not what you think you may see. There's a difference, you know.

[MrPaul 10]

I concur with all the replies....

 

Between Gold, crude oil, Emini Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, Russell 2k, soybeans, corn, wheat, 10 yr, 30 yr notes, British Pound, Swiss Franc and Euro currency futures I might be able to find something to trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Bear - I concur with Coot on this one. Daytraders typically need volatility or movements to make money, whether it's December or July. Right now, we have some nice volatility so I would keep trading it till it dries up.

 

The common thing I've heard is that the 'smart money' guys are on vacation over the summer, so stay out. Well, if you look at the volume lately, these guys are still here doing their thing. No vacations just yet it appears.

 

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[The Bear 10]

OK, thanks everyone., this helps explain for sure.

 

Now I have something to look forward too this summer instead of watching maria bartiromo all day...although that wouldn't be so bad. I'm bullish on Erin Burnett lately.

[Guest cooter]

At least you didn't say Silvia Wadhwa