Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair is still in a bullish mode in spite of the effort of bears to pull price down. There are support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050 and a downside breach of the support lines would result in a new bearish outlook. There are also resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450: an upside breach of those resistance lines would result in further confirmation of the existing bullish mode. However, even if the market moves further upwards, it is more likely that it would become weak by the end of this week or before the end of this month.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

On USDCHF, last week was characterized by desperate struggles between the bull and the bear. The bear is still strong enough to check the bull from realizing his objectives and as such, the bias on the market remains bearish. A movement below the support level at 0.9250 would result in a stronger bearish propensity, especially when price closes below the support level and moves further south towards another support level at 0.9200. This is because price could not close below the support level at 0.9250 last week, and a movement below it would mean that the bear is stronger. However, any significant weakness in EURUSD, which may happen before the end of this month, would cause USDCHF to rally seriously.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Cable rallied by 300 pips last week, rising from the accumulation territory at 1.5250 and closing above the accumulation territory at 1.5550. Further upward movement is possible, enabling price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5700. However, a strong bearish trend is anticipated on Cable (and other GBP pairs) before the end this week or this month. This bearish trend might also be in force in most of July 2015.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This currency trading instrument has already gone bearish – though the bulls are fighting a losing battle to reverse the trend. Price tested the demand level at 122.50, and then bounced upwards. Though a movement above the supply level at 125.00 could challenge that new bearish signal, the upward bounce could also bring an opportunity to sell short at a better price. In case of further southward movement, price could breach the demand levels at 122.50 and 121.50 to the downside.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

On Friday, June 12, 2015, this cross closed at 139.00. The outlook on the market is currently bullish, though threatened. Price needs to move upwards in order to save the bullish outlook. A breach of the demand zone at 138.00 could result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, and as such, price should not go below that demand zone; otherwise the recent bullish outlook would be rendered invalid. This cross, plus other JPY pairs, has a high probability of becoming weak by the end of this month and in most of July 2015.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“…The only truth is the chart. Don't ever listen to the news without looking hard and long at the chart. The chart is the truth. Nothing else is the truth.” – Scott Brown

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[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

EURUSD first consolidated last week; then it broke upwards, closing above the support line at 1.1300. The bias is still bullish and price could test the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500. Failure to do this could lead to a drop in the price, and therefore, the condition of USD would be the greatest determinant of the movement of EURUSD for the rest of this month. Only a significant weakness in USD may help EURUSD maintain its current bullish bias.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair was able to break below the resistance level at 0.9250 (which bears could not breach in the first two weeks of June 2015). Since then, price has moved below another resistance level at 0.9200. The support level at 0.9150 was tested last week and it could be tested again, especially with more selling pressure in the market. That support level could even be breached to the downside.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

GBP is really strong, and the evidence can be seen on most GBP pairs. Cable moved upwards by 350 pips last week, and it has moved upwards by 650 pips this month. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is currently being besieged and it might end up being slashed by bulls. Another possible target is the distribution territory at 1.5950. However, Cable must now be approached with caution because it is possible that the pair would become weak before the end of this week or this month.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This market first moved sideways last week. On June 17, there was a false bullish breakout, which made the market go upwards by 100 pips before bears came in to force it lower. The market is now close to the demand level at 122.50, which may be breached to the downside anytime. It should be borne in mind that this market is expected to trend lower and lower in the month of July 2015: hence any rallies in the short-term could well bring short-selling opportunities.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This cross did not make any large movement last week, though the outlook remains bullish. The bullish outlook itself is not very strong. So, any movement below the demand zone at 138.00 would mean the end of the bullish outlook, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This is a condition that would signify the bearish power on the cross.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“My opinion is that traders who have long been around and keep learning, will establish themselves automatically.” – Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Because of the events in the Eurozone, EUR pairs might open with gaps this week and in case the gaps happen, they would harbinger great volatility in the markets for the rest of the week. EURUSD trended downwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bearish and a bearish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. The possible breakout would happen when the support line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside as price goes further downwards to other support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000. A movement above the resistance line at 1.1300 would render this expectation invalid.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair trended upwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bullish and a bullish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. This week, the sanguine bulls would try to keep price moving upwards, and so, the possible breakout would happen when the resistance level at 0.9400 is broken to the upside as price goes further upwards to other resistance levels at 0.9450 and 0.9500. On the other hand, a movement below the resistance line at 0.9200 would render this stated possibility illogical.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Cable came down by roughly 200 pips last week – a threat to the extant bullish bias. Price then moved in an equilibrium phase till the close of the market on Friday, June 26, 2015. There is now a very high probability that this market (and most other GBP pairs) would become seriously weak, starting from this week and in the first half of July 2015. The current bullish bias would be valid only as long as price is above the accumulation territory at 1.5650.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This trading instrument is currently consolidating. Price is generally moving/oscillating between the supply level at 124.50 and the demand level at 122.50. It would normally be expected that price would eventually break above the aforementioned supply level or demand level, paving way for a sustained trending move. A strong southward movement is highly possible in the month of July 2015.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Just like EURUSD, this cross first trended downwards last week before moving sideways. Whatever happens to Euro (such as gaps, strong movement), would have similar impact on this cross. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and a strong bearish trend is probable in July.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“When you trade from a carefree state of mind, everything about your trading changes. Remember, that the primary skill that we are talking about here is simply trading without fear. This is a trading skill. It is the primary trading skill that you will have to acquire to create consistency – to trade without fear.” – Mark Douglas

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Current events in the Eurozone will continue to shape the movement of EURUSD and other EUR pairs this week. Last week, price opened with a gap-down of about 200 pips before an upward bounce of over 300 pips occurred on Monday. On Tuesday, price began to go south and tested the support line at 1.1050 on Wednesday. After that, price consolidated till the end of the week. This week, EURUSD and other EUR pairs could open with gaps, and of course, the gaps would be followed by strong movements in case they occur. The outlook on EURUS D is bearish: unless the resistance line at 1.1250 is overcome, further southward movement is expected.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

This currency trading instrument traded downwards on Monday, reaching the support level at 0.9250. Form that level, price went north by 250 pips, testing the resistance level at 0.9500. Once the resistance level was tested, a bearish correction took price lower by another 100 pips. Last week, price closed around the support level a 0.9400, but it is likely that price would rally again. The bias is bullish as long as the support level at 0.9250 is not breached to the downside.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Following the recent sideways movement, Cable broke out to the downside, going below the distribution territory at 1.5600. The accumulation territory at 1.5500 is an easy target for bears, for there is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market right now. Should price go further southward, another accumulation territory at 1.5400 would be attained. However, this does not rule out the possibility of rally attempts.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

There is not yet any significant movement on USDJPY, as price only oscillates between the supply level at 124.00 and the demand level at 122.00. The present market condition is thus great for scalpers and intraday traders, but not for swing and position traders. Eventually price would either break out above the supply level at 124.00 or below the demand level at 122.00, after which there would be a significant movement. It should be noted that the most probable direction for July 2015 is bearish. This is also true of most other JPY pairs.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

At the open of the market last week, this cross experienced a gap-down of about 400 pips as it slammed into the demand level at 134.00. Immediately after this, price rose sharply by over 400 pips, testing the supply zone at 138.00. Price then got caught in an equilibrium phase for the rest of the week. This week, the conditions of the Eurozone will also determine what happens on this cross, because whatever happens to EUR/USD will cause almost identical movement on this cross. A southward movement is most likely.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Give the market time to develop once you have defined your stops and profit targets. You cannot control the market anyway. It is certainly no coincidence that we have had reports from many traders telling us that they have not only achieved better results with simple no-frills trading, but have also felt better.” – Marko Graenitz

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD dropped by 280 pips last week, going below the resistance lines at 1.0950 and 1.0900. The resistance line at 1.0900 (and of course the resistance line at 1.0900) was an adamant obstacle to bears’ interest. Now that the obstacle has been overcome, the next targets for the bears are the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750. The aforementioned resistance lines should server as obstacles to bullish attempts this week, for their breach would mean a threat to the current bearish outlook.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair went north by over 200 pips last week, going above the support levels at 0.9500, 0.9550 and 0.9600. The support level at 0.9500 (which was formerly a resistance level) really proved obstinate for the bulls because it opposed bullish effort for over 2 weeks while the bulls kept on besieging it. Once the opposition was overcome, price was able to rally smoothly. Since price has closed above the support level at 0.9600, it is possible that the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700 will be aimed at. This bullish bias might go on till the end of the month, but things could change in the wake of a strong stamina in CHF, which is expected by the end of the month.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Cable rose significantly last week, battering the distribution wall at 1.5650. Bears have been fighting back at that distribution wall, making it hitherto impossible for bulls to breach it. Nevertheless, the bulls have continued to struggle for supremacy, and that is the reason behind the current consolidation in the market. Price shall go out of balance this week, and it is most probable that the bulls would overcome.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

Since testing the demand level at 120.50, this currency trading instrument has gone upwards by 350 pips. The persistent bullish movement has put an end to the recent neutral outlook in the market – for the outlook is now bullish. However, price needs to go towards the supply level at 124.50 and break upwards through it; otherwise there could be a massive bearish correction this week or next week.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This cross would continue to go south as EURUSD keeps going south. The only hope of a meaningful rally here is an event in which the Euro becomes very strong; otherwise price would continue to drop further and further (whether speedily and gradually). This bearish force is formidable here, coupled with the expectation of a massive gain in the Yen itself around the end of this month.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“What makes trading so fascinating and, at the same time, difficult to learn is that you really don’t need lots of skills; you just need a winning attitude.” – Mark Douglas

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Although the dominant bias is bearish, this pair made some commendable bullish attempts last week. Price moved upwards by almost 200 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1000. That resistance line is an important price area, since it must be broken to the upside for the current bullish effort to continue. Should that occur, a subsequent break of the resistance lines at 1.1050 and 1.1100 would result in a clean bullish bias. On the other hand, any failure of price to break the resistance line at 1.1000 to the upside could result in a serious bearish movement.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullish stance in spite of the fact that EURUSD was also making bullish effort. This is one of rare occasions in which EURUSD and USDCHF would be going in the same direction in the short-term. However, things will soon go out of balance and the pairs would go their separate ways. USDCHF might go further upwards, but this would be challenged by the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700. In fact, it is highly probable that CHF may gain serious stamina before the end of this month (this would also affect other CHF pairs), and thus cause USDCHF to fall smoothly.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This mercurial currency trading instrument experienced a southwards movement last week. There is a bearish signal in the market: which would be valid as long as the distribution territories at 1.5650 and 1.5700 are not breached to the upside. In case those distribution territories are overcome, the current bearish signal would be rendered illogical.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This market traded sideways last week, though the bullish trend on it is not yet over. Should the market move sideways again throughout this week, it would enter a neutral territory. Nevertheless, price could soon go out of balance, resulting in a serious trending move. Yen can become very strong before the end of this month – causing other JPY pairs to tumble – and it can also cause USDJPY to go bearish.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

From the demand zone at 134.50, this cross moved upwards by over 150 pips, slamming into the supply zone at 136.00. This has caused a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but it is a confirmation pattern that might be short-lived, since Yen can become very strong before the end of the month, causing bears to dominant the market.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“… No system or set of trades is either winning or losing, they are only so with respect to the position sizing (or money management) that was applied… We have every tool we can long for to control risk while adding to our winners.” - Dirk Vandycke

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral

This pair experienced a great deal of volatility last week. Price went up on Monday, and then dropped seriously from Tuesday to Thursday. On Friday, price spiked upwards and immediately following that, got corrected to the downside. The high volatility and short-term swings in the market have cancelled any directional bias on the market, not because of any equilibrium conditions, but because neither bulls nor bears are able to dominate protractedly in spite of the fact that momentum is currently high. This pair would be characterized by high momentum this month, and it would be difficult for it to rally protractedly as long as USD is strong.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Despite the fact that bearish attempts caused the support levels at 0.9550 to be tested a few times last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullishness. Since the support level at 0.9550 has become a strong barrier to bearish effort, it would be safe to assume that the bullish outlook on the pair will remain valid as long as price is able to stay above that support level. The resistance level at 0.9700 is also a big challenge to bulls, for price could not break above it last week in spite of sincere effort by the bulls. A break above that resistance level would thus result in a smooth continuation of the extant bullish trend. The outlook would go bearish as soon as the support level at 0.9550 is breached to the downside.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral

Cable has not been able to go below the accumulation territory at 1.5450 or go above the distribution territory at 1.5650 for weeks; therefore, the accumulation territory at 1.5450 and the distribution territory at 1.5650 could serve as boundaries for short-term swing trades. In this week or next, price could move out of these boundaries, thereby giving way to a serious directional movement. In this month, GBP (and other GBP pairs) would most probably be weak in most cases, though there could be occasional bullish attempts on the way.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This currency trading instrument has been moving sideways since the middle of July 2015. A break above the supply level at 124.50 could result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and a break below the demand level 123.00 could also result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This month, it is highly possible that Yen would gain lots of strength, thus causing JPY pairs to tumble. The strength in the Yen may start before the end of this week, and therefore, it is possible that USDJPY will go below the supply levels at 123.00 and 122.00 this week or next week.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

Although there is a measure of strength in the EURJPY cross, the situation looks delicate. The supply zone at 137.50 could challenge further rally in the market, and the possibility of a bearish movement starting anytime is high because the outlook on JPY pairs for this month of August is bearish.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Now I embrace the uncertainty and design my processes so as to have the potential to thrive in the uncertainty. I want to accept winners and cut losses short in an uncertain world, and I want to do it repeatedly without desire to know the future.” – Markham Gross

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD is now a volatile pair, characterized by serious struggles between bear and bull in the context of a downtrend. The support line at 1.0850 was tested last week, but price could not break it to the downside. For the downtrend trend to continue this week, that support line should the broken to the downside as price targets another support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750. This bearish outlook would make sense as long as the resistance line at 1.1050 is not broken to the upside.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

This is one of the few currency pairs among the majors which traded in one direction throughout last week. From the support level at 0.9650, price moved upwards by 200 pips, closing around the resistance level at 0.9850. The bias is bullish: the resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950 could be tried this week. Therefore, it is expected that this currency pair would be edging it way upwards as long as USD does not experience any significant weakness.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

On GBPUSD, there was a southward breakout (out of the volatile equilibrium phase that was seen last week). Within the last two trading days of the last week, the southwards breakout made the price to test the accumulation territory at 1.5450. The price even went briefly below that accumulation territory before bouncing upwards. This week, further southward attempts may be witnessed because the outlook for GBP (and other GBP pairs) is bearish. And this is true of this month.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This currency trading instrument traded upwards last week, reaching the supply level at 125.00. Nevertheless, further upwards movement was rejected at that level, making price to get corrected to the downside. It should be noted that, prior to the current price action, USDJPY moved sideways for a few weeks, and when there was a breakout to the upside, it was only a movement of 100 pips. The bearish correction that happened on Friday has made the prior bullish breakout look like a false one. This means that, while further bullish attempts are not impossible, the most probable direction for the market this week is southward.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

On EURJPY cross there was no clear victory between bulls and bears, Last week, desperate bullish effort was being frustrated at the supply zone at 136.50. This shows that bears are fighting hard to check bulls’ ambitions. A test of the demand zone at 135.00 would thus result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, thereby enabling more bearish journey. It is expected that Yen would be strong this week or this month, which should cause most JPY pairs, including EURJPY to become strongly bearish.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Real professional traders have a competitive drive and appreciate the intellectual challenge that the markets pose to them again and again.” – Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair rose by 150 pips last week, rising from the support line at 1.0950 and reaching the resistance line at 1.1200. Price has really met a challenge at the resistance line at 1.1200, but it would need to go above the resistance line so that the bullish journey can continue. There are support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000: the bullish outlook would make sense as long as the support lines are not breached to the downside.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

In recent times, both USDCHF and EURUSD are making bullish efforts. This is unusual because the pairs ought to go in separate ways (and they would soon do so). After testing the resistance level at 0.9900, USDCHF got corrected by 200 pips, testing the support level at 0.9700. However, this does not render the recent bullish bias invalid. The pair is now making some effort to go upwards and this week would see the result of that effort. The recent bullish bias could only be rendered useless in case the support level 0.9650 is breached to the downside.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral

Cable remains highly volatile; characterized by large upswings and downswings in the market. There is no clear directional bias on the market because bulls and bears enjoy only transitory victories. There is an accumulation territory at 1.5450 and there is a distribution territory at 1.5650, which is an adamant distribution territory indeed because it has rejected all bullish effort for the past several weeks. Since the expectation for GBP is bearish for this month, things would become really bearish when the accumulation territory at 1.5450 is broken to the downside. On the other hand, a break above the distribution territory at 1.5650 would mean the bearish expectation may not materialize this month.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

Based on the current price action, it can be said that USDJPY has hitherto defied gravity. Occasional bearish corrections are quickly followed by rally attempts – and all these are not even significant. This week, it would be intriguing to watch what would happen to this currency trading instrument. A movement below the demand level at 123.50 would result in a ‘sell’ signal while a movement above the supply level at 125.50 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This cross rallied massively last week, closing at 138.11 on Friday, August 14, 2015 (just above the demand zone at 138.00). While the cross may journey further northwards this week, that would not rule out the possibility of a bearish plunge. The cross would be going upwards only as long as EUR is stronger than JPY.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“After playing in front of large football crowds and having the spotlight on me, I really enjoy having my own destiny in my hands now. I miss being as physically fit as I used to be, and the fun times with the other players, but I also like the freedom of trading. As a professional sportsman you have no freedom. But in my second career I have all the freedom I need, and that is through trading.” – Lee Stanford (Source: Tradersonline-mag.com)

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

From the support line at 1.1050, this pair went upward by 330 pips, going above the support line at 1.1350. EUR is now one of the strongest among the majors (and so is CHF) and this has reflected on most EUR pairs. The next targets for EURUSD are now at the resistance lines of 1.1400 and 1.1450, which could be breached easily with an ongoing bullish pressure in the market.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

This is a bear market. The massive bearish breakout that was seen last week has resulted in an end to the recent sideways movement in the market. The weakness in USD and the strength in CHF, coupled with the fact that this pair has to trade in the opposite direction to the strong EURUSD, have contributed to the current tailspin. Price dived by 300 pips last week, and it is now close to the support level at 0.9450. With a continuation of the current situation, bears may be able to attain another support level at 0.9300 this week.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

GBP may be weak somewhere else (as seen on GBPCHF and GBPJPY), but it is not weak against USD. Last week, GBPUSD managed to go above the stubborn accumulation territory at 1.5650. Bulls tried to push the price further upwards, but bears came in against them and started their bearish efforts. Another serious fighting is taking place around an accumulation territory at 1.5700, but the bulls must eventually win for the current bullish outlook to continue being logical. The hope of a weak GBPUSD has been dashed for this month, because stubborn distribution territories, if breached, become stubborn accumulation territories (and the other way round). After all, GBPUSD is positively correlated with EURUSD.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Following the recent equilibrium phase – which lasted for several weeks – USDJPY finally broke south in a predictable manner. A weak USDJPY has long been anticipated; and with the fact that bulls have failed to push price significantly northward, the current bearish plunge is no wonder. In a strong trending market like this, demand (and supply) levels would be easily cut through; just like a hot knife through butter. Further southward movement is anticipated this week, though bulls may make some faint effort to reverse the trend.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

The EURJPY cross initially went down by 100 pips last week, but the movement was later reversed and price went vividly upwards. The next point of attack is the supply zone at 139.00. Price is very close to that supply zone and it may be breached to the upside. The bullish bias will exist for as long as EUR is strong.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“If you are just starting out, you should trade with real money as soon as possible… Do not fool yourself into a false sense of reality. Get accustomed to trading for real because that is what you are going to have to do to make real money.” – Mark Minervini (a legendary trader)

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Last week witnessed the greatest volatility in the markets since January 15, 2015. Between August 19 – 24, price went upwards by 680 pips, topping at the resistance line of 1.1700. Immediately the resistance line was tested, price began to retrace steadily and gradually. From the weekly high of 1.1700, price has gone downwards by 520 pips; thereby threatening the recent bullish bias. The threat to the bullish bias is so serious that a movement below the support line at 1.1100 would ultimately result in a bearish outlook.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

From August 19 – 24, this pair plunged by 500 pips in what can be called the biggest USDCHF move in the last few months. From August 25 till now, price has nevertheless, rallied by over 300 pips, which is another threat to the existing bearish outlook on the market. In case price goes above the resistance level at 0.9700, things would turn cleanly bullish; whereas failure to do that could strengthen the existing bearish outlook. Since the outlook on CHF is bearish for the month of September, bulls would be having some difficulties pushing USDCHF upwards.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

When the hope of a weak GBPUSD was almost dashed for the month of August 2015, the pair eventually became weak. This formerly trudging pair managed to test the distribution territory at 1.5800 before bulls lost all their power. From that distribution territory, price nosedived by 450 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5350. This means that bears are the overall winners on GBPUSD in the month of August, since their action overturned all the bullish gains for the month. In September, we will see very serious volatility on GBPUSD (and of course on all GBP pairs), coupled with fast bearish and bullish movements.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

The expectation of a bearish USDJPY pair for the month of August eventually materialized; and so was the bearish outlook on some other JPY pairs. From August 19 – 24, price plummeted by 800 pips, going briefly below the demand level at 116.50. Since then, price has been making a noteworthy bullish recovery - a movement of 500 pips. Should the price move further upwards by another 200 pips this week, the bearish outlook would be rendered ineffectual. However, an upward movement of 200 pips could be difficult to achieve because it is expected that most JPY pairs would be bearish for most of the time in the month of September (with a few exceptions); and USDJPY would not be different.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Owing to the strength in Yen, which was already anticipated, EURJPY fell sharply, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. Though there is an ongoing struggle between bull and bear, price was able to attain the demand zone at 135.50 last week, in a downward movement of 300 pips. The demand zone at 135.50 was battered several times without being permanently penetrated. That demand zone ought to be breached this week or next so that the bearish bias can continue to make sense.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“The market provides the greatest opportunity on earth for financial reward. It also teaches great lessons… It is the greatest game on earth.” – Mark Minervini (a trading legend)

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Though EURUSD consolidated in the most part of last week, the bias on the market is bearish, for bullish pressure has seriously lost steam. The pair has consolidated to the downside and it might reach the support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050. Nonetheless, bulls will make desperate effort to push the pair higher this week, and there is a high probability that their effort may yield some result. Any movement above the resistance line at 1.1350 would indicate that bulls have achieved their aim. Should EUR gain lots of stamina this week, the effect would be noticed on other EUR pairs.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDCHF went up by 150 pips last week, running into a barrier at a resistance level of 0.9750. Bulls made several abortive attempts to break that barrier before the market closed on Friday. For the bullish bias to continue making sense, the barrier at 0.9750 must be overcome. That mean price would need to target the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850. On this pair, there could be two possible obstacles to bulls’ interests: (1) Any rally on EURUSD could send USDCHF south. (2) In case CHF gains enough strength (which is possible this month), USDCHF would experience some difficulties going forward.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Since August 25, this market has dropped by 630 pips, following a test of the distribution territory at 1.5800. Price is now close to the accumulation territory at 1.5150; plus it could even reach other accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050. However, the market looks overbought, and while the aforementioned accumulation territories could be reached, a serious rally would not be a surprise (if it happens) this week. It should be noted that movements on GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) would be significant this month, whether they go up or down.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

USDJPY went down by over 230 pips last week, closing at 118.97 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market – the bearish trend ought to continue. This week, price could attain the demand levels at 118.50 and 118.00, providing that JPY is able to maintain its current strength versus USD; otherwise there could be a bullish breakout.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

There was a strong bearish movement on this cross last week. From the supply zone at 136.00, price went down to reach the demand zone at 132.50. This is a movement of 350 pips. The bearish movement looks overextended, though there could be more bearish movement this week. On the other hand, there is also a possibility of a strong breakout to the upside before the end of the week.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“When you make an unshakable commitment to a way of life, you put yourself way ahead of most others in the race for success. Why? Because most people have a natural tendency to overestimate what they can achieve in the short run and underestimate what they can accomplish over the long haul. They think they have made a commitment, but when they run into difficulty, they lose steam or quit. Most people get interested in trading but few make a real commitment. The difference between interest and commitment is the will not to give up. When you truly commit to something, you have no alternative but success. Getting interested will get you started, but commitment gets you to the finish line.” - Mark Minervini, a trading legend (Source: Tradersonline-mag.com)

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

As it was mentioned in the last forecast, bulls made effort to push EURUSD upwards, and they were successful in doing that. Before this, the market consolidated for the first few days of the last week and then broke upwards, giving the resistance line at 1.1350 a close marking. In case the resistance line is broken to the upside, the next targets for bulls are located at the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

This currency trading instrument moved largely sideways last week, not going above the resistance level at 0.9800 or going below the support level at 0.9650. Bulls made futile attempts to go above the resistance level at 0.9800, and also, bears were unable to dominate the market. Looking more closely at the current price action, it can be seen that the market has started threatening to break down. Nonetheless, the impending breakdown would not be taken serious unless the support level at 0.9600 is breached to the downside. Two factors will determine the direction on this currency trading instrument this week: What happens to EURUSD (which will most probably move further north) and/or the situation around CHF (which could make it strong this month).

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

GBPUSD made sincere effort to go upwards last week – with a measure of success. It is possible that the pair would continue moving upwards this week, owing to the presence of a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The distribution territory at 1.5450 has already been tested and it could be broken to the upside. GBPUSD could move further north by at least, 200 pips this week.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

Apart from a slight upward movement, there was no clear direction on USDJPY last week. Price closed at 120.57 on Friday, in a consolidating mode; and there can be a breakout in any day of this week. Price would either break above the supply level at 121.50 or break below the demand level at 119.50. That is when there will be a directional movement.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This EURJPY cross is now one of the most predictable instruments among the majors which moved in a directional mode last week. The EURJPY cross moved north by 400 pips, now close to the supply zone at 137.00. Given the ongoing weakness in Yen and strength in EUR, there is a high possibility that the uptrend would continue, enabling the supply zone at 139.00 to be attained before the end of this week.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“I have everything that I need to live well, that is true, but I enjoy the mental stimulation and the challenge [trading offers]. I can see myself still trading when I turn 100.” – Paul Nojin

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Though this pair was trendless in the first few days of last week, it was characterized by high volatility on Thursday and Friday. Price moved upwards On Thursday and got corrected downwards on Friday. However, the outlook on the pair is bullish: we may witness further bullish journey this week (which may also happen on most other EUR pairs). Price could reach the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1550 this week.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

USDCHF also consolidated in the first few days of last week, broke down on Thursday and bounced upwards on Friday. The overall bias remains bearish, nonetheless. As long as EURUSD is strong and CHF refuses to yield to gravity in a significant mode, it would be difficult for USDCHF to experience any meaningful rally. The resistance level at 0.9800 is a strong barrier to the bulls.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

From the accumulation territory at 1.5350, this currency trading instrument moved upwards by 300 pips, testing the distribution at 1.5650. From that distribution territory, the trading instrument has been corrected lower by 110 pips. Price could find it difficult going further upwards this week, but the uptrend would be valid as long as the accumulation territory at 1.5350 is not broken to the downside.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

There is no yet a clear direction on USDJPY, for price did not make any large directional movement last week. There can be a serious breakout this week; which would most probably favor the bears, owing to a measure of weakness in USD and a bearish expectation on certain JPY pairs. There are demand levels at 119.00 and 118.50. There are also supply levels at 121.50 and 122.00.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

In spite of the bearish correction that occurred on Friday, there is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would not be violated until price crosses the demand zone at 134.50 to the downside. For the EURJPY to trend upward this week there must be an exceptional stamina in EUR as well as a measure of weakness in JPY – otherwise a serious bearish movement could start before the end of the week.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Yes, my profits and losses are ultimately nothing more than a “productivity report.” – Dan Gamza

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair fell 200 pips last week, almost touching the support line at 1.1100. Afterwards, price bounced upwards by 180 pips and then got corrected lower. The price action in the market reveals that bulls are still making noticeable effort to push the price upwards, all in the context of a downtrend. This week, serious volatility would be witnessed as bulls continue to make more bullish effort, which would not jeopardize the extant bearish bias until the resistance line at 1.1300 is overcome.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDCHF moved upwards in a directionally mode last week, breaking above the resistance level at 0.9800, but closing below it at the end of the week. The short-selling that occurred on September 24, 2015 simply provided an opportunity to go long at better prices. Unless EURUSD experiences a significant bullish movement, USDCHF cannot plunge significantly. So whatever would happen to USDCHF this week would be determined by the movement of EURUSD.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Last week, this pair dropped almost 400 pips, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5150. Last week, it was mentioned that the pair would have difficulty going upwards: That statement is also valid for this week. Any rallies that happen on this pair would be good opportunities to sell short at better prices. Another southwards movement of at least, 200 pips, is expected this week. So that accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5000 are potential targets.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

There is not yet any directional movement on this currency trading instrument and it would be nice for swing and position traders to stay away from it until there is a strong breakout. However, this instrument is currently great for scalpers and intraday traders. Before a breakout can be termed as being strong here, there must be a bearish or a bullish movement of at least, 300 pips. Most of the month of September 2015 has been trendless.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURJPY cross first moved downwards 200 pips, and then started going upwards gradually on September 23. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which cannot be violated as long as the cross is unable to go above the supply zone at 136.00. Once that supply zone is overcome, then things would be bullish; but until that is done, this is a bear market. Any rally that is seen could thus be deceptive.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

 

“I do not trade for sport or hobby. I trade for a living. So it is important for me to quantify trading opportunities and determine that I do in fact have an edge before I enter a position.” – Rob Hanna

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD was volatile for most past of last week, and there is not yet a strong directional movement, though the bias is bearish. Even the bullish breakout that was performed on Friday could prove to be a false breakout unless the resistance lines at 1.1350 and 1.1400 are overcome. On the other hand, there are strong support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100. This month, there could be some selling pressure on EURUSD as a result of an expected strength in USD.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

In spite of the large pullback that was seen on October 2, this pair remains a bull market. For the bull market to be rendered illogical, there is a need for the pair to breach the support levels 0.9600 and 0.9550 to the downside, staying below them. It would not be easy for bears to achieve this aim because the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October (and so is the outlook on CHF). What can be a noteworthy challenge for the bullish bias on USDCHF is the expected stamina in CHF itself, which would be visible on certain CHF pairs within the last two weeks of this month. In addition, a significant rally must happen on EURUSD before USDCHF can go south protractedly. Unless that happens, USDCHF would remain bullish, meaning that the last pullback might be another opportunity to join the uptrend.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

The rally that happened on this currency trading instrument last Friday was not strong enough to jeopardize the existing bearish trend in the market. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and there is a possibility that price could continue going south. Since the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October, price would find it somewhat difficult to make a protracted northward journey. Large movements are expected this month.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

There is not yet any directional movement on this currency trading instrument. This is a choppy market and it would be prudent to stay away from it until there is a directional movement. For this currency pair to go into a trending mode, price must either close above the supply level at 121.50 or below the demand level at 118.00. Without this happening, the market would remain choppy and trendless. One thing is sure: There would be an end to the present consolidation in this month.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

The movement of this cross was somehow flat last week – all in the context of a downtrend. This cross, including other JPY pairs, would perform strong trending movements this month, and this week is likely to be bullish for some JPY pairs, including the EUR/JPY cross. There could be an upwards movement of 200 pips this week, which would lead to a brand-new bullish outlook, should it happen. A major factor in the direction of this cross in this week is the condition of Yen, which could be weak.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Trading can be an intellectual stimulation, as well as a way to make money…. A well-conceived and executed transaction is a thing of beauty, to be experienced, enjoyed, and remembered. It should have an essence transcending monetary reward.” - Mark Minervini (a trading legend)

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

EURUSD went north last week, closing above the support line at 1.1350. This seems to have ended the recent choppy movement in the market. By every indication, it is much more likely that the pair would continue going upwards this week, breaking above the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450. The support lines at 1.1300 and 1.1250 should try to defend the current bullishness in the market.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

This market has become bearish, dropping from the resistance level at 0.9750, and testing the support level at 0.9600. This has led to a bearish signal in the market, which might enable price to continue going further south. As long as EURUSD keeps on going up, USDCHF would be under selling pressure. The support lines at 0.9600, which has already been tested, could be re-tested. It could even be broken to the downside as price targets another support line at 0.9500.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Contrary to the sideways movement that was witnessed two week ago, GBPUSD performed some bullish movement last week. There is no longer a bearish outlook on GBPUSD. Price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5150 and closed above the accumulation territory at 1.5300 (though it briefly went above the distribution territory at 1.5350). For this week, the outlook on the pair is bullish: something that is true of GBP pairs. We may thus see price attaining the distribution territories at 1.5450 and 1.5500.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

This currency trading instrument has not yet made any serious direction movement, except that price vacillates between the supply level at 121.00 and the demand level at 119.00. This has been going on for several weeks. However one thing is sure: There would be an end to the present consolidation in this month and it might happen this week. When a breakout happens, it would most likely favor bulls.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

The rally that happened on this cross has caused a nice Bullish Confirmation Pattern on it. On Friday, price closed at 136.58; on a bullish note. This means the cross is much more likely to continue going further upwards and thus, a northward movement of at least, 200 pips, could be witnessed this week. The outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week; partly owing to the ongoing weakness in JPY.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“The most important thing is to understand that the “holy grail” in trading is the combination of discipline and a strategy with a positive expected value. Once you have that, you just have to be successful.” – Oliver Klemm

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair initially moved upwards last week, but it could not reach the resistance line at 1.1500 before it got corrected downwards. On Friday, price closed at 1.1348, though the bias is bullish. The bullish bias will remain valid as long as the support line at 1.1250 is not broken to the downside. Any bearish attempts that are seen here should be interpreted as an opportunity to go long, unless the aforementioned support line is broken to the downside.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

As long as EURUSD makes visible bullish effort, USDCHF would not perform any meaningful rally. Price went south last week, testing the support level at 0.9500 many times without being able to close below it. On Friday, price closed below the resistance level at 0.9550. There is a need to breach the support level at 0.9500 to the downside so that the bearish trend could continue. There are resistance levels at 0.9600 and 0.9650, which should try to defend the current bearish bias.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

This currency trading instrument went sideways on Monday. It went south on Tuesday, but rallied seriously on Wednesday in conformity to the existing bullish outlook. Price headed into the distribution territory at 1.5500; being unable to break above it. That distribution territory is now a challenge to bulls – they must overcome it so that the current bullish outlook could continue to make sense. The pair is supposed to continue moving upwards.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

USDJPY experienced a bearish breakout last week, and price went down 200 pips as a result of that. This would have led to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but the upwards bounce that happened after that has pushed back the price into the recent neutral territory. Price bounced upwards by 150 pips, just before the demand level at 118.00 could be tested. The condition for the end of the current neutral bias is this: Price must either close above the supply level at 121.00 or below the demand level at 118.00. That condition can still be fulfilled this month.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This cross moved sideways from Monday till Wednesday (October 12 - 14), and then performed a large pullback on Thursday, testing the demand zone at 135.00. Unless the demand zone at 134.50 is breached to the downside, EURJPY the uptrend would be rational. It is likely that EURJPY would go up this week or next week. Most JPY pairs could also go up before the end of the month.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Your best bet is to think like a four-year-old. When prices go up, I am bullish, and when they go down, I am bearish.” – Dennis Gartman

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair traded in a tight range from Monday to Wednesday and then broke out southwards on Thursday. The southward break was strong enough to cause a new bearish outlook on EURUSD (plus most other EUR pairs), which would continue for the rest of this month. Last week, price fell 350 pips, testing the support line at 1.1000. That support line is a psychological level – a breach of it to the downside would result in further southward movement.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

In most cases, the movement on USDCHF is largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. As long at the latter had stamina in it, the former was under bearish pressure. As soon as EURUSD broke down, USDCHF skyrocketed, rising from the support level at 0.9500; with price almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9800. This is a movement of roughly 300 pips, and it has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further upward journey is expected this week: The resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900 are potential targets.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

There is a bearish signal on GBPUSD, owing to its inability to trend upwards. All previous northward attempts were foiled at the distribution territory of 1.5500, which is now a major barrier to the bulls. The bias on this market can never be bullish as long as price is under the distribution territory at 1.5500. In the last few trading days, price made a bearish move, now very close to the accumulation territory at 1.5300. Unless the distribution territory at 1.5500 is breached to the upside, short positions are recommended.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

As it was mentioned in the last week forecast, there has been an end to the recent equilibrium phase on USDJPY, which lasted for several weeks. One of the conditions for the end of the equilibrium phase has been met: A close above the demand level at 121.00. The current bullish journey began on October 15, but it was not counted as been significant until price closed above the demand level at 121.00, almost testing the supply level at 121.50. USDJPY now looks sexy (attractive) to swing and position traders. Price should continue its bullish journey for the rest of the month (even beyond October 2015).

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This cross initially made a faint bullish movement in the first few days of last week, as price moved above the supply zone at 136.00. However, the sudden loss of stamina in EUR caused the cross to tumble. The cross dived smoothly, reaching the demand zone at 133.50. The cross would find it difficult to rally when EUR remains very week, unless JPY itself becomes weaker than EUR. There is still some hope of JPY pairs strengthening before the end of this month.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Sit down, observe the markets and go trading!” – Marko Graenitz

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair first moved sideways in the first few days of last week, and then price broke down again on October 28, reaching the support line at 1.0900. From that support line, price has bounced upwards a bit, testing the resistance line at 1.1050. The bias on this pair remains bearish and further downwards movement is possible in the month of November, principally because the outlook on USD is bright for the month.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDCHF went upwards smoothly last week, reaching the resistance level at 0.9950. However, bulls have been unable to push price above that resistance level, as price eased by almost 100 pips, testing the support level at 0.9850. USDCHF should continue its upwards journey this month, possibly reaching the great psychological level at 1.0000, which means USD could probably reach parity with CHF this month, given the bullish expectation on USD for this month.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

GBP shall undergo strong and fast movements this month as bulls and bears struggle for supremacy, which would also be visible on GBP pairs. Price tested the accumulation territory at 1.5250 and then spiked upwards on Friday. In spite of the upwards spike, the bias is bearish. A movement above the distribution territory at 1.5500 could end the current bearish bias, and until that happens, long trades are not recommended.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDJPY did not make any serious directional movement last week, since there were transitory upswings and downswings in the market. Should this kind of price action continue throughout this week, the market could enter another equilibrium phase. Nonetheless, the bullish bias is supposed to continue this month (certain JPY pairs would make attempts to rally in November, except AUDJPY and NZDJPY, because the outlook on AUD and NZD is strongly bearish for the month of November).

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This currency trading instrument cannot make any significant bullish movement as long as Euro is very weak. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market: Long trades would be illogical unless the supply zone at 134.00 is overcome. Until that happens, rallies could be taken as short-selling opportunities. In case Yen becomes weaker than Euro, a meaningful reversal would be witnessed. Euro itself would make effort to rally against some currencies in this month, save Greenback.

 

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Fortunately, the positive expectations of full time trading prove to be true. Every day is exciting and the world of trading never bores. There is always a lot going on in the financial markets and there is plenty to discover.” - Christiaan van der Meer

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This pair dropped 300 pips last week, testing the support line at 1.0700. The largest southwards movement last week occurred on Friday – a result of positive fundamental figures coming out of the US. The outlook on the pair remains bearish, which would be valid as long as USD is strong. The Euro could rally against certain other currencies this month, but it is not likely that it would rally seriously against the US dollar.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

The movement on this intriguing pair has been nicely predictable. Price moved further north by 200 pips as the US dollar reached parity with the Swiss Franc (as it was forecasted last week). There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, owing to the stamina in USD. As price has closed above the great psychological support level at 1.0000, it would no longer be easy for bears to breach the level again. In fact, further upward journey is expected from here.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

Last week, Cable was the strongest moving pair among the majors. It fell by roughly 400 pips, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5050. The selling pressure in the market is quite strong and this might continue further this week. Any upwards bounces that are seen here should be taken as opportunities to sell short, because price could go further south by at least, 200 pips this week.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This currency trading instrument moved smoothly upwards last week. The movement was especially serious on Friday, November 6, 2015. Price is now staying above the demand level at 123.00, targeting the supply levels at 124.00 and 125.00. Since the outlook on most JPY pairs is bullish for the month of November, it is logical to conclude that this currency trading instrument would continue its uptrend. There are other demand levels at 122.00 and 121.50, which are supposed to check any large pullbacks along the way.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Although this cross did not move seriously last week, it remains in a bearish mode. Price tested the demand zone at 131.50, but it could not breach it to the downside. The cross would be weak as long as the Euro is weak. Nonetheless, it could only be pushed up by a surprise weakness in the Yen, which might eventually happen this week or next week, since it is expected that most JPY pairs would be bullish this month. On the EURJPY cross, predictable directional movements would be witnessed from now till the end of the year 2015.

 

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“I notice that today there are much larger movements occurring much more quickly than in the past. That’s a good thing for us traders since the large [movements] will also result in good opportunities for making a profit.” – Oliver Klemm

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD did not move upwards or downwards significantly last week, though the outlook remains bearish. Last week was the week in which the FX markets consolidated the most this year, with certain pairs and crosses not going up or down by 50 pips throughout the week. EURUSD simply vacillated between the support line at 1.0700 and the resistance line at 1.0800, but there might be a breakout this week, which would favor the current bearish outlook (although the consolidation could continue for some time).

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Just like EURUSD, USDCHF moved in a tight range last week. Price moved between the great psychology level at 1.0000 and the resistance level at 1.0100. The ranging movement could keep on happening for some time, but a breakout would eventually happen, which would probably favor bulls, as price goes further upwards, targeting the resistance level at 1.0200. It would require a serious bearish force for price to breach the great psychological level at 1.0000 to the downside.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

In the context of a downtrend, Cable made a determined bullish correctional movement throughout last week. The market rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5050, topping at the distribution territory at 1.5250. This is a bullish movement of 200 pips, but it cannot render the downtrend invalid unless the distribution territory at 1.5350 is broken to the upside. Until that happens, long trades might be opened with caution.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

After reaching the supply level at 123.50, this currency trading instrument got corrected downwards a little, reaching the demand level at 122.50. Apart from this, there was nothing significant last week, as it is true of other pairs and crosses. Even most fundamental figures that were supposed to impact major pairs were shrugged off last week, save the Australian employment figures, which impacted AUD pairs. USDJPY might also continue moving sideways, but a breakout is in the offing.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

The EURJPY cross was simply choppy; and that might continue this week. The cross would find it difficult to trend seriously upwards as long as the Euro is weak, and so, the movement in the context of a downtrend could continue. Nonetheless, there is still a possibility that most JPY pairs could assume a measure of bullish effort this month; and that could be when EURJPY would trend upwards.

 

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“One of the most common misconceptions is that a retail trader cannot successfully and profitably day trade – I can tell you now that’s a load of tosh and don’t believe those naysayers… This belief normally comes from people who have royally failed and so try and take others down with them.” – Chronictrader (Trade2win)

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD did not make any serious directional movement last week, for what was seen was slow short-term movements to the upside and downside (and they were nothing significant). On Friday, price closed at 1.0645, highlighting the ongoing weakness in the pair. There is a possibility that the support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0550 might be tested; otherwise a strong bullish breakout could take price towards the resistance levels at 0.0700 and 0.0750.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair moved upwards 150 pips last week, reaching the resistance level at 1.0200, which is our suggested target for the last week. Nonetheless, price was unable to go above that resistance level, and this week would see whether that feat would be achieved. In case the resistance level is overcome successfully, the pair could move further upwards by another 150 pips. Failure to achieve this could result in a bearish correction, though it seems unlikely that the great support level at 1.0000 would be breached to the downside now.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

In the context of a downtrend, Cable made a noteworthy bullish attempt – even going temporarily above the distribution territory at 1.5300. This upwards bullish attempt later proved to be a bogus “buy” signal because bears came in and pushed price back to the level it was at beginning of last week. Further downward movement is a probability, plus the bearish bias would hold out as long as price is unable to go above the distribution territory at 1.5300, (and staying above it).

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This market consolidated throughout last week, though there was no price action that suggested the end of the extent bullish bias. Should the consolidation continue this week without a directional bullish movement or bearish movement, then the bias on the market would turn neutral. One thing has been noted: Some pairs and exotic crosses have begun trending strongly and this could extend across the FX markets, including USDJPY.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This currency trading instrument went further south last week, closing below the supply zone at 131.00, just in conjunction with the ongoing weakness in the market. The southward movement last week was not a serious thing, but price could still go further south. On the other hand, the hope of bullish JPY pairs has not been lost for this month. In case the Yen loses stamina versus other currencies, EURJPY could be enabled to trend upwards.

 

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Brilliant traders are being made today, and if you shelter without taking action, your next few years could be wasted. Leaps in skill development occur when tests are presented. Smooth sailing doesn’t prepare the sailor. It is challenges that focus the mind like no other.” – Louise Bedford

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD only consolidated to the downside last week, in the context of a downtrend. There are resistance lines at 1.0750 and 1.0800, which could check rally attempts. There are also support lines at 1.0500 and 1.0450, which are the targets for bears, since further bearish movement is possible. Any rally attempts that happen in the market should be taken as false breakouts. It is expected that the Euro would be weak in December, and so EUR pairs would be bearish in most cases.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair managed to go upwards by an addition of 100 pips last week – in solidarity with the extant bullish bias. Since the great psychological level at 1.0000 has been breached to the upside, price has moved northward by 300 pips, testing the resistance level at 1.0300. This bullish journey has a high probability of continuing this week, for the outlook on USD is bright for the month of December (and so is the outlook on CAD).

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

GBPUSD moved further south last week, closing below the distribution territory at 1.5050. Yes, continuous southwards movement is expected for most past the month of December, even beyond the month. On GBPUSD, any rallies that are seen this month should be taken as short-selling opportunities, because the accumulation territories at 1.4900, 1.4800 and 1.4700 would be slashed in December. In fact, GBP would be seen falling sharply against other major currencies, and so, positions that favor GBP are not recommended.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

Since this currency trading instrument only moved sideways throughout last week, the outlook has become neutral in the near-term. A breakout is expected this week, which would either take price below the demand levels at 122.00 and 121.50; or take it above the supply levels at 123.50 and 124.00. For this movement to qualify as a serious breakout, price must close below the demand level at 121.50 or above the supply level at 124.00. Nonetheless, a breakout to the upside is much more likely, owing to the bright outlook on the US dollar.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

It has already been said that this cross would find it difficult to rally significantly as long as EUR is weak, unless JPY itself experiences an extraordinary loss in stamina. The EURJPY cross has demonstrated its willingness to continue moving south: There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On JPY pairs, we would witness pleasant volatility and predictable movements in the month of December.

 

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Volatility and lucrative market movement should continue for many years to come, providing nearly endless opportunities for the well-prepared trader.” – Scott Andrews

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com

[analyst75 12]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

There was a sudden and fast bullish breakout on EURUSD, which made it go upwards 450 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.0950. The price consolidated after that, till price closed last week. The bullish breakout has abruptly overturned the recent bearish trend in the market, but a crucial question remains… Was this a false breakout? A false breakout could be as significant as you might think, but it would remain false in case it cannot be sustained. For this bullish breakout not to become a false one, we should see further bullish movement (whether fast or gradual); otherwise, another leg of southward movement would start. It has already been said that the outlook on USD is bright for December, while EUR is expected to be weak.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

There was a surprise pullback on this pair last Thursday, as it went below several resistance levels, plus the great psychological level at 1.0000. Price nosedived by 400 pips last week, reinforcing the gradual bearish movement that started at the beginning of last week. Now the USDCHF is facing challenges from two fronts: The recent strengthening of EUR and the expected rally in CHF. Yes, CHF is expected to start gaining stamina by the end of this week, and that can last until Christmas Eve (please watch CHF pairs). This means that bulls will certainly not find it easy to push up USDCHF price.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

On Thursday, December 3, 2015, GBPUSD also went upward 250 pips in a positive correlation attempt with EURUSD. The distribution territory at 1.5150 was tested after price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.4900. Nevertheless, the bearish outlook on GBP pairs remains unchanged for the month of December. It can be seen that the major bias on most GBP pairs have been bearish, so, the recent upward bounces should be opportunities to go short at better prices.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral

What happened on this currency trading instrument last week was short-term upward and downward swings. The swings have not succeeded in overturning the neutral bias on the market. A movement of at least, 200 pips to the upside or to the downside is required before price could move out of this neutral zone. A movement to the upside is the most likely because the US dollar would be making some bullish effort, and because the Yen might suffer further loss of strength. The market condition is now currently great for scalpers and intraday traders.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

As it was mentioned in the past, one of those things that could bring about a vivid rally on this cross is a vivid rally in the Euro itself. That was exactly what happened last week. From the demand zone at 130.00, price shot skywards, reaching the supply zone at 134.50 (a movement of 450 pips). Price has moved sideways since then, but further upward movement is possible because JPY pairs might move upwards this month, in certain cases.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Although strategy is important, it is not as critical as knowledge and the discipline to apply and adhere to your rules. A trader who really knows the strengths and weaknesses of his or her strategy can do significantly better than someone who knows only a little about a superior strategy. Of course, the ideal situation would be to know a lot about a great strategy. That should be your ultimate goal.” - Mark Minervini

 

Copyright: Tallinex.com