Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

thetradingdoctor

Bullish Or Bearish

Recommended Posts

Markets move because traders trade. Markets are neither bullish nor bearish, rather it is the combined emotions of over six million people which leads to conditions of either bullishness or bearishness. There are permabears who are always bearish and permabulls who are always bullish. The best traders go with what the market is telling them. The best traders leave any preconceived notions about the market somewhere in the far far distance. The best traders take advantage of what they see right in front of them. This is another way of saying: Trade what you SEE, not what you THINK!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At the same time it's a good idea to look at the long-term charts so that you have a bias in a particular market. On the daily chart in the YM for example I'm seeing a topping formation. Just because I see that doesn't mean I'm going to trade it. The weekly charts are making me think that being long in this market is the best option. I think it's a good idea to think before you trade, not just react to whatever you see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Doc, and welcome ¡¡¡ hope you enjoy your time here at TL....

 

I think that what the doc says about thinking its sinonimous to "fantastic predictions"...

 

obviously we have to think before we trade, BUT.... with true technical FACTS and not our predictions without any clear technical clue... would that be it doc ? cheers Walter...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good point nopoint(?!) - also to know exactly what you are looking for before trading (patterns/threshholds/etc.). Never good to change the plan midstream.

Like you said, when you have a bias, you know what patterns to look for, or which side to lean towards..

For example, if markets are ranging, you might want to fade the range only in direction of previous trend in anticipation of the trend re-asserting itself..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  notouch said:
At the same time it's a good idea to look at the long-term charts so that you have a bias in a particular market. On the daily chart in the YM for example I'm seeing a topping formation. Just because I see that doesn't mean I'm going to trade it. The weekly charts are making me think that being long in this market is the best option. I think it's a good idea to think before you trade, not just react to whatever you see.

 

So notouch you are a "permabul" on this moment ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent comments and good to see that you are thinking! It is critical to know your time frame and to trade from that time frame. THere are so many different market opinions, many of them based on the timeframe of the chart being discussed. Scalpers work on different time frames from day or swing traders who work on different time frames from "investors." So, always know yourself, i.e. what you trade and the time frame in which you are trading. Also, if you do not have a trading strategy AND a trading plan, I strongly suggest that you work on one as soon as possible. Trading without a plan is like driving blindfold in rush hour traffic in a car with no breaks. Or worse! In any case, always plan your trade and then always trade your plan. That sounds simple ( and it really is pretty simple) but it is not at all easy.

 

Good remarks from all...Keep them coming!

 

Thanks!

 

Doctor Janice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice nice doc.... Having a plan absolutely... should we add that the plan has to be simple ? because having a so complex plan its similar to the mambo of not having one... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  walterw said:
So notouch you are a "permabul" on this moment ?

 

I wouldn't say permabul I just have a long bias so even if I was expecting range trading I would still concentrate on taking longs at the bottom of the range and closing them at the top but not taking shorts. I think having a bias based on the long-term charts gives you an edge and keeps you out of bad trades. I could change my bias if I saw bearish developments in the weekly charts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  notouch said:
I wouldn't say permabul I just have a long bias so even if I was expecting range trading I would still concentrate on taking longs at the bottom of the range and closing them at the top but not taking shorts. I think having a bias based on the long-term charts gives you an edge and keeps you out of bad trades. I could change my bias if I saw bearish developments in the weekly charts.

 

 

I perfectly understand what you mean notouch.... overall trend context... could you share some charts (maybe on a diferent thread, this is doc`s thread) of your long term trend determination bias... it would be nice to learn that... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  thetradingdoctor said:
Markets move because traders trade. Markets are neither bullish nor bearish,
Traders trade because markets move. The more a market moves, the more traders trade.

 

And markets most definitely ARE either in a state of bullishness, bearishness or consolidation. There are strategies to use to piggy-back the current mode and to fade the current mode.

 

You can't not look at a chart if you're a TA bod and NOT see which mode your instrument is in. That's the whole point of TA. Which ties in perfectly with your quote of the famous 'trade what you see' mantra. But to suggest markets do not have a mode and traders move markets is erroneous. Market-Makers move markets too and they're not necessarily in trader-mode when they do that.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  TheBramble said:
Traders trade because markets move. The more a market moves, the more traders trade.

 

What she's saying here, I believe, is that markets themselves do not move unless traders trade. If there were no traders at all...just one day everyone said let's boycot trading...then the markets would not move. Markets don't move themselves, traders move the markets. When traders come in large numbers, that'll bring more in and move it even faster.

 

So the above statement is somewhat false, but I see what you mean. Traders will trade because a market is moving, but the market is moving because traders are actually trading. Without the trades, the market would stand still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nope. The markets not only would and could move without traders. The markets DO move without traders. That's what Market Makers do for a living - they entice traders to trade by moving the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is strange reality that both an argument and its counter-argument can be equally true, you just have to look at each argument from its own perspective.

 

It remains that only trading will shift prices.

The other aspect is, to what extent do prices honestly represent market sentiment and to what extent does price manipulation by the big money misrepresent market sentiment?

 

In Forex RSB, the Royal Scottish Bank, has been the most successful trader among the big boys, imo they have monopoly control of prices and can and do misrepresent market sentiment to their advantage. That is how they got to be winners and it is how they stay winners, by staying in control of the prices we rely on for interpreting market sentiment.

 

Following their "smart money" seems the logical analytical method to me.

So now there is a third argument that splits market forces into leaders and followers, getting one step ahead of the leaders is my goal. Following the followers seems futile to me, like walking into a sucker trap.

 

Is it logical or merely cynical to follow the "smart money" rather than the price/market?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  PYenner said:
It is strange reality that both an argument and its counter-argument can be equally true, you just have to look at each argument from its own perspective.

 

It remains that only trading will shift prices.

The other aspect is, to what extent do prices honestly represent market sentiment and to what extent does price manipulation by the big money misrepresent market sentiment?

 

In Forex RSB, the Royal Scottish Bank, has been the most successful trader among the big boys, imo they have monopoly control of prices and can and do misrepresent market sentiment to their advantage. That is how they got to be winners and it is how they stay winners, by staying in control of the prices we rely on for interpreting market sentiment.

 

Following their "smart money" seems the logical analytical method to me.

So now there is a third argument that splits market forces into leaders and followers, getting one step ahead of the leaders is my goal. Following the followers seems futile to me, like walking into a sucker trap.

 

Is it logical or merely cynical to follow the "smart money" rather than the price/market?

 

 

Very interesting quote about Royal Scottish Bank (thats new to me), my question Pyenner is how can I follow them ? how can I know what are they doing (buying/selling).... would apreciatte that information.... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WalterW

 

Find your input on many threads to be solid and constructive, thanks for the work.

 

RSB is worth a good long Google, much is out of date but still informative.

RSB London has been #1 forex trader since way back.

Net profit flow is from all other international banks into RSB London.

Used to be lots of Sirs on the board.

 

I can only offer input on spot forex which has the advantage of having 10 pairs within the majors. Essentially 8 must be monitored to understand the state of play in the 2 RSB sucker trap pairs. Unfortunately it gets complicated before it begins to get simple, I suspect from your motto that you already know that.

 

I looked at the VSA thread but while I have not used that indicator, it appears to rely on transient volumes which to me seem to be frequently misleading. Such moves often appear to get dissipated to no obvious gain shortly afterwards so I suspect they may be just more manipulated signals.

 

I follow the longer trends in the prices relative to each other, not in absolute prices. Trends in the 8 "arm and leg" pairs tell me what the bank is doing.

Often it provides no more information than to tell me where prices are within the swing ranges of the two sucker trap pairs and the only trade available is to wait for a bigger movement then trade back towards centre of the range.

 

Sometimes a recognizable pattern shows up that can be traded longer term or with at least some awareness of the longer trend when scalping swings.

 

There are some whole new ways of thinking involved, one is about the mechanics of forex trading at bank level, that is the bank's weakness, its actions are visible for the most part. It counters that by building years of trading expertise and tactics into the trading software, they know how traders think and stay one step ahead of them. Even when you know the long term trend you still have to think tactically, their tactics aim at burning both bulls and bears, that can mean 100-300 pips in drawdown but a nice bonus swing trade if you have been undertrading with that opportunity in mind.

 

The four Franc pairs are the easiest place to start, you will find a one to one relationship.

Two pairs apply only to GBPJPY, two apply only to EURUSD. After that it gets more complicated. This is not the place, nor is it yet the time no get into it.

Nor do I have the time or ability to answer questions from what might become a feeding frenzy. Sufficient thought will be rewarding I believe.

 

If a Franc based account makes a buy in GBPJPY, it shows up as a pip movement and volume one in GBPJPY and also in GBPCHF (crudely). Footprints are left that can be followed. Only banks trade Francs :)

 

When you are dealing with a con, ignore the words, the suit and the haircut, keep your eyes on what the hands and legs are doing under the table.

What they do is what they are, what they look like is not what they are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  PYenner said:
It is strange reality that both an argument and its counter-argument can be equally true, you just have to look at each argument from its own perspective.
From an academic perspective, yes, you can objectively consider both side of any argumant. But in trading, you can't make any profits taking both views.

 

  PYenner said:
It remains that only trading will shift prices.
Untrue. Trading (volume) does move prices. But so too do Market-Makers and Specialists - without 'active' (volume-based) trading.

 

  PYenner said:
The other aspect is, to what extent do prices honestly represent market sentiment and to what extent does price manipulation by the big money misrepresent market sentiment?
Immaterial. Who cares about sentiment and representation? It's what IS happening and what is most likely to happen that's important. Not a subjective or even roughly objective view of why what is, is.

 

  PYenner said:
Following their "smart money" seems the logical analytical method to me.

So now there is a third argument that splits market forces into leaders and followers, getting one step ahead of the leaders is my goal. Following the followers seems futile to me, like walking into a sucker trap.

 

Is it logical or merely cynical to follow the "smart money" rather than the price/market?

One step ahead of the leaders? How can you be one step ahead of the leaders? They are, by definition, ahead of everyone else - hence, leaders.

 

Following the leaders is absolutely the name of the game. Not cynical at all - just plain smart. It of course makes you a follower, but don't deride that status. So few are really followers. They are miles behind and are affectionately knows as stragglers or 'The Public'. There are enough of them to make it worthwhile for us Traders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TheBramble

 

I like the way you think, like a hunter :)

We are actually in agreement on most points.

The leaders are driven by a profit motive, understanding where and how they make their profit is the key to predicting their moves.

They are traders too, they follow profit/risk rules.

They are potentially predictable and exploitable just as "the public" are, because they follow trading rules.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.