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cowpip

Week 24

By cowpip, in Forex

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cowpip    10

cowpip
Posted

This is how this week's "playing field" looks to me for cable. We have had a protracted drop from the yearly highs and price appears to have finally found some support near the yearly open price and the 50% fib from the move up to 2.01.

 

The weekly chart shows that we are still in a bullish trend-channel on cable, with a possible longer-term target now near the upper trend channel above 2.06. Of course, that isn't likely going to happen anytime soon, but it suggests that where prices recently bottomed near the yearly open price may serve as a lower boundary for another (probably protracted?) leg higher.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=1612&stc=1&d=1180238428

 

The daily chart shows more of the gory details, of course. Note, in particular, how the interesting trend-line I've marked as the "prime" trend has been interacting with price. This trend is formed by plotting from the low of 17 July to 17 November 2006. It has been a very interactive little trend-line ever since. Price seems to like plodding off of it. Perhaps more significantly, it is worth noting that price has never dropped more than 200 pips below that trend line. It has always (since 2006) rebounded back above it relatively quickly.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=1613&stc=1&d=1180238428

 

And finally, the 4-hour chart upon which our working canvas is essentially completed. This chart shows a bull-flag within a bull-flag, with a potential target near or slightly above the 2.0 mark.

 

The weekly pivot and S/R levels are also shown, and are definitely worth watching closely as price works around these levels.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=1614&stc=1&d=1180238428

 

This is NFP week. If the NFP numbers do not line up nicely for the dollar, this bull-flag may bust northward (assuming it can consolidate that long). Otherwise, I expect prices will push right back down into the yearly open zone, where there should be additional support.

 

Good trading to everyone!

MAY2707A.gif.7db3ec3a93f64bc70aced09d9f935af9.gif

MAY2707B.gif.6c5f9c2d85f64f0719000c6001fc6767.gif

MAY2707C.gif.052254f37255dfdd19d47569e2b6e08f.gif

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torero    10

torero
Posted

Excellent analysis cowpip and glad to see you're still participating! Yes, I agree fully with the assessment. I'll be watching for the bull-flag as well as the channels for the resumption of the major trend. Keep on coming!

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Buk    10

Buk
Posted

hey Cary!

 

price has worked off the longer frame pivots (monthly-weekly) pretty much all year on these bullish ascents & have signalled decent buy alerts in line with the common candle prints.......no real deviation from that during May either, having bounced again off a monthly S1 @ circa 9680 thru an inside 4h bar........

 

if you sling up a 100ma on the daily, your 'prime trend line' guage printed on your graphs won't be too far from that marker either! in fact it's been a keen buy guage marker for approx 15mths now...........

 

first signs (for me) of a change of tack from buying dips will be price failing to gain a shoulder back thru that 100 avg marker........but then your 4hr will have offered one or two clues by then I shouldn't wonder!

 

nice charts, & good to hear you're taking positive advantage of your analysis ;)

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cowpip    10

cowpip
Posted
if you sling up a 100ma on the daily, your 'prime trend line' guage printed on your graphs won't be too far from that marker either! in fact it's been a keen buy guage marker for approx 15mths now...........

 

first signs (for me) of a change of tack from buying dips will be price failing to gain a shoulder back thru that 100 avg marker........but then your 4hr will have offered one or two clues by then I shouldn't wonder!

 

That's probably the better indicator (the 100 ma), huh? I'll be watching that one closely over this next week. Prices broke the upper-bull-flag channel last night, failed to take out the high and dropped through the lower bull-flag boundary on my charts. So it would appear we're on-track to re-test that 100ma line around 9700?

 

A double-bounce off that level would provide more confirmation for the bulls to shove this through 2.0. Besides, the dollar data this week (and last week) doesn't seem to favour the bears a whole lot. At least now, I have a technical reason to short. Prior to the bull-flag break, I favored longs. Now, it would appear the ball is more in the bear camp.

 

Thanks for your comments, Buk and Torero. I appreciate it.

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